NY 191: Denmark Mafia - Endgame

[Espeonage]

So?

People picking same target. The death makes sense from any scum group tbh. Also there can be protections. Another golden rule of set up creation is make sure the game doesn't end too quickly. There must always be ways to curb kills in multiball. That's one of the things common in all the setup theory articles and is just common sense.

Look at the facts.

At least 6 scum.

That is the only fact because otherwise the game is farcical due to the ability for the game to be occuring with no scum. Basic priniciples.

So given that and given the size of the game, multiball is confirmed unless you want to suggest an incredibly strong slew of town power.

[Shiro]

Shit RC did flip town doctor. It is not impossible that he had a succesful save

Still I am not touching Titus till I get confirmation on this

[Espeonage]

ALso I just realised I'm starting to hit overtired, this might be time to rumble.

[Espeonage]

Shit RC did flip town doctor. It is not impossible that he had a succesful save

Still I am not touching Titus till I get confirmation on this

I don't compute. Because Titus is incredibly scummy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with the recent Dave post.

Not to mention it's shitty anyway and in no way a slip even if multiball.

The fact you contemplate jumping ship before thinking is interesting though.

[Espeonage]

You know people always ditch the wait until you have a reason to get back in to the game strat. But it seems to always work better than reading.

[Drixx]

So basically you are concluding that the only reason the game started when it did is because a scum confirmed and that's all that was holding things up? And from this you posit multi-ball even though we don't actually have evidence of that? That might be the weakest rationalization to lynch someone who hasn't said anything overtly scummy in ... ever?

But here's the dealio. I'll 1v1 Elyse. I'm even willing to go first.

VOTE: Elyse

[Drixx]

You know people always ditch the wait until you have a reason to get back in to the game strat. But it seems to always work better than reading.

The irony of this post.

[Frozen Angel]

Drixx are you reading Esp posts? or just skimming them?

[Elyse]

Nero what is the scumslip

[Elyse]

Nvm I see it. Saying that I was setting up a mislynch yesterday

[Elyse]

Ehhhh I'd rather lynch Titus I think

[Elyse]

VOTE: Titus

[Espeonage]

okay

So basically you are concluding that the only reason the game started when it did is because a scum confirmed and that's all that was holding things up?

Yes, that is certain. Go look at the start of the game.

And from this you posit multi-ball even though we don't actually have evidence of that?

Yes, run the math.

That might be the weakest rationalization to lynch someone who hasn't said anything overtly scummy in ... ever?

That isn't a rationale for lynching. I even said why that line was bogus.

But here's the dealio. I'll 1v1 Elyse. I'm even willing to go first.

VOTE: Elyse

Can someone please read my posts? Like please. With actual reading?

[Dwlee99]

"I see that drixx scum slipped but let's vote someone else"

How about no, elyse?

VOTE: Drixx

[Heat]

@Mod: V/LA until Tuesday the 22nd, Final Exam hustle.

[Drixx]

"I see that drixx scum slipped but let's vote someone else"

How about no, elyse?

VOTE: Drixx

This is super bizarre. I offered to 1v1 Elyse because she has a scum narrative in shambles. I'm even happy to go first so you know you can trust the motives of whatever infodump I make if I do indeed get lynched today. I would caution you all to be careful of pilling on too quickly ... wouldn't want to give the scum a chance to silence me.

I can provide examples of my ability to find flaws in scum narratives and nail them, and since it's possible the game is multi-ball (I don't see any concrete information to confirm it, but it's possible), I can't trust that my townread on Titus is legit. She doesn't appear to be doing her normal scum routine, but if this is multi-ball, I could be in error in town reading her.

I seriously don't mind going to the gallows first, so long as I get to speak my piece and that the townies who vote me go after Elyse tomorrow when they see me flip town. I will trade myself 1-for-1 for scum any time, any game.

[Drixx]

The part of that post which was odd, btw, is that Dwlee99 seems to think that Elyse is trying to protect me, and thus voted me. That seems like an odd position to take with really odd reasoning, since I'm literally saying "I'll trade myself for Elyse being lynched". In what world does Elyse want to defend me under these circumstances?

Dwlee99 just jumped way up near the top of the probable scum list with that vote with illogical and terrible reasons. He literally looks like scum who knows he needs to have a reason to vote, so he picked some bizarre way to justify it. #1963 is perhaps the scummiest post in the game now.

[Dwlee99]

I am voting you cause you scum slipped and I'm appealing to Elyse to vote you with me.

[Titus]

How did Drixx scumslip? Seriously, not seeing it at all. :/

[Dwlee99]

The "setting up a mislynch" thing. I'll go off of it.

[Drixx]

The "setting up a mislynch" thing. I'll go off of it.

You mean me speculating that Elyse was trying to line up mislynches? That's hardly a scum slip; it's an observation of what was going on yesterday. Let's review:

1.) Titus was pushing for an AJ lynch. As the deadline approached it appeared that AJ would be the lynch.

2.) Elyse started pushing to 1v1 Titus when it seemed like AJ was going to get lynched. She gave no reasons why she wanted to 1v1 Titus. Occam's razor suggests that the most simple explanation for that is that Elyse expected AJ to be lynched and expected AJ to flip town.

3.) Despite the fact that she gave no reasons yesterday, Elyse gave a half hearted attempt to do the "1v1 with Titus" thing, but still gave no reasons. I called her out on it. The speculation on my part is that Elyse expected people to want to go along with her 1v1 today. Why would we want to do that with no reasons given? The sequence of events suggests that Elyse was planning on AJ being (mis)lynched to give her fuel to push for a 1v1 today.


That's how it went down. There's no scum slip in speculation. I haven't claimed to know anyone's alignment, and in fact you have ignored the part of my speculation where I pointed out it was possible that both Elyse and AJ are scum, or that only one is. It's even possible that AJ is scum but Elyse is not and just wants to 1v1 Titus without telling us why. The reasoning that requires the least assumptions is that Elyse was trying to set up mislynches. That's what her push to 1v1 Titus (without any reasoning) looks like. Her planned reason (the AJ lynch that seemed inevitable late yesTerday) was pulled out from under her, so she was left having to push it today, without any reasons to give us.

The speculation seems pretty spot on given that she took the first opportunity to jump off of Titus. I've got nothing to fear. I already said I'll gladly allow myself to be mislynched and info dump as long as that means the town will realize that Elyse has an ISO displaying a classic scum narrative where things have to change because of unexpected events, and will lynch her after I flip town. I will always trade 1for1. That's really good town utility in nearly every case, and certainly so in this one.


BTW: A scum slip is when scum reveal information they could not have as town, or say something in a way that makes it clear they are scum. Speculation is not the same as revealing certainty of knowledge. Speculation can't be a slip since by nature it's hypothetical. Townies please pay attention to the people who are taking advantage of horrible reasons to jump on me and let Elyse off the hook. I am content to die today so long as I can info dump, because I'll be vindicated by my flip and there's already enough scummy opportunistic jumps onto me to give town a lot of info just from that, setting aside that my thoughts and evaluation can be trusted to be town motivated once I flip.

So decide now if you think Elyse demanding to 1v1 Titus today without reasons makes any sense from a town mindset. Ask yourself if it makes sense if she knew yesTerday that what seemed like the consensus and inevitable lynch (AJ) would flip town. Ask yourself if you believe she's really gone after Titus in any meaningful way during today's day phase. Think ... because thinking is how you figure things out, and right now folks are just letting Elyse off the hook.

If it takes me being mislynched to make you all realize that I'm right ... then I'm cool with that. 1-for-1 ... let's do it.

[Dwlee99]

UNVOTE:

Titus, I'll sheep you on anyone but elyse.

[Drixx]

UNVOTE:

Titus, I'll sheep you on anyone but elyse.

What reason do you have to believe Elyse is town? I just literally offered to voluntarily put my head in the noose I'm so sure of it.

[pistachi0n]

What do you think of Titus who is hard town reading that after trying like hell (and failing miserly) to get that lynched?

I looked through Titus's iso again and she said AJ obvtowned but didn't say where or how, so that's a little off.

But this is an associative theory and right now I think more evidence points to AJ being scum. I'd be more likely to consider Titus scum is AJ flips town, actually, because then I'd be thinking Titus wanted to buddy and get points after AJ flips town.

[Elyse]

@dwlee
I don't really think it's a slip.