NY 191: Denmark Mafia - Endgame

[pistachi0n]

The fact that you're so wrong on all of your reads?

Your opinion is noted.

[Shiro]

Titus is impossible to read.

This is blatantly false. Titus is among the easier people to read. The only issue is that occasionally she is town when you read her as scum. But she is very easy to townread. To the point where scumreading her at any point should send alarm bells in everyone's head.

For you, that may be. For me it isn't.

[Titus]

Titus is impossible to read.

This is blatantly false. Titus is among the easier people to read. The only issue is that occasionally she is town when you read her as scum. But she is very easy to townread. To the point where scumreading her at any point should send alarm bells in everyone's head.

For you, that may be. For me it isn't.

I didn't write a thread on how to read me because people found it easy. :/

[Shiro]

You have such a thread? I need to read that.

[Firebringer]

Reading Titus is like reading anyone else except opposite day!

[Firebringer]

Gut is worthless. Its only value is that it brings to your conscious attention something that your unconscious mind has picked up. Unless you go find some actual reason, then stop with this nonsense. You blew your role on literally nothing.

Except for that sometimes you predominantly get feelings and later search for reasons that gave you feeling even when that wasn't true.

Happens in human psychology all the time. The truth is we don't always know why we think the way we do and you saying we can find out such I think is bullocks.

You can say 'Gut' is worthless, but how much is it really? Just because you can't understand it? That seems like you not doing enough on your own to understand the player IMO.

In summary: Gut is valuable.

I hate the people who like to pretend to be just rational/logic individuals.
Its really boring.

[Firebringer]

Oh damn I seriously wonder why Aj might be on a MM wagon when it's either MM or Aj getting lynched. Let's think about that one.

Survivalism is as much a town trait as a scum one. So.....lets go with you were scum being survivalistic.

I like that more.
How you doing Aj?

[Firebringer]

Elysee top 3 reads are mostly meh to me.
I don't see them as strong either way, Dav leans more scum to me than any way town.
Can't say much for espeonage or pistachion definitely not being strong pressence, but that could be town easily.

We should still lynch Davsto.

[Fro99er]

(expired on 2015-12-30 16:30:00)

(Wed Dec 30 @ 4:30:00 PM ET)

VOTECOUNT 2.05

• (4)
  Davsto
  — Firebringer, Titus, Dwlee99, Drixx
  (0)
  Espeonage
  —
  (0)
  Nero Cain
  —
  (1)
  Drixx
  — Nero Cain
  (1)
  pignash
  — Shinobi
  (0)
  Firebringer
  —
  (0)
  Shinobi
  —
  (0)
  Grib
  —
  (0)
  Frozen Angel
  —
  (0)
  Shiro
  —
  (0)
  Aj The Epic
  —
  (4)
  Titus
  — Davsto, Espeonage, Elyse, pistachi0n
  (0)
  Elyse
  —
  (0)
  pistachi0n
  —
  (2)
  Heat
  — Aj The Epic, Frozen Angel
  (0)
  Dwlee99
  —
  

(4)

[NOT VOTING]

— pignash, Heat, Grib, Shiro

With

16

alive

, it takes

9

votes

to lynch.

Shinobi is V/LA

Heat is V/LA until 12/22

[Titus]

You have such a thread? I need to read that.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=61986P

There you go.

[Drixx]

Gut is worthless. Its only value is that it brings to your conscious attention something that your unconscious mind has picked up. Unless you go find some actual reason, then stop with this nonsense. You blew your role on literally nothing.

Except for that sometimes you predominantly get feelings and later search for reasons that gave you feeling even when that wasn't true.

Happens in human psychology all the time. The truth is we don't always know why we think the way we do and you saying we can find out such I think is bullocks.

You can say 'Gut' is worthless, but how much is it really? Just because you can't understand it? That seems like you not doing enough on your own to understand the player IMO.

In summary: Gut is valuable.

I hate the people who like to pretend to be just rational/logic individuals.
Its really boring.

http://www.lesswrong.com <--- When you finish the sequences and you can describe to me how to apply Bayes' theorem to mafia games, then feel free to talk about me

pretending

to be rational. Rational is really just a word that means thinking in the way one believes is correct, so it's not even really a useful word, but once you get done at the site, you'll know that and a lot more.

As for gut, I didn't say it was worthless period. I said that by itself it's worthless and meaningless. "Gut" can be all sorts of things. All it takes is someone to say something a certain way that your brain associates with scum or town from some prior game, and your "gut" makes an assumption that you cannot assume is sound. That's why I said anyone who talks about "gut" needs to figure out what their "gut" is telling them. I get "gut feelings" all the time ... but unless I can support them with some evidence or apply logical reasoning ... there's no way I'm going to lynch someone because I have a "gut feeling" but cannot discern what that feeling means.

Preferably, proper game theory in mafia would use reasoning that examines evidence and lets it guide the player to conclusions, instead of hypothesizing that X player is Y alignment; however, sometimes that doesn't work; generally due to a lack of evidence. In that case, I generally try and do a sort to see where it's most valuable to spend my time, and I'll read a person in context assuming they are scum, and look for any inconsistencies in narrative. Then I'll assume they're town and see if there are town reasons for everything they say and do.

You may have a different approach.

All I'm saying is that if your "gut" starts telling you things, it's probably time to go eat something. The more games you play, the more times you are going to bump into things that are similar to prior events. The problem is that prior events from prior games with prior player groups and prior setups cannot logically inform you about anything in the current game. So far as I am aware, "gut feeling" when tested in double blind studies is statistically indistinguishable from random chance. So yeah ... when your "gut feeling" gets going ... go look for why.

And the next time you want to take a pot shot at me and launch a theory discussion, perhaps you could do it in the mafia discussion forum? Then people can weigh in and give anecdotes as if they constituted evidence, and I can laugh a lot and not feel bad.


Can we get back to finding and lynching scum now please?


Love, with last minute shopping treats,
Drixx

[Nero Cain]

this is my prod dodge until I am more awake.

[Firebringer]

That's why I said anyone who talks about "gut" needs to figure out what their "gut" is telling them. I get "gut feelings" all the time ... but unless I can support them with some evidence or apply logical reasoning ... there's no way I'm going to lynch someone because I have a "gut feeling" but cannot discern what that feeling means.

You are missing my point.

In trying to figure out why you are getting a feeling you may misinterpret and attribute it to something that was not.

This is called Mis-attribution of arousal and happens in real life all the fucking time.

Asking someone to explain why they feel a certain way is an easy way for them to attribute it to something that had nothing to do with it.

[Shinobi]

Will someone please explain to me why it's so hard to lynch pignash?

[Firebringer]

Will someone please explain to me why it's so hard to lynch pignash?

Because you are pushing it?

And you aren't as loud and obnoxious as titus (I mean that as a compliment Titus)

[Shinobi]

Is there supposed to be a specific implication behind that statement or is there another reason as to why you aren't doing so?

[Shinobi]

No, are you purposely misreading me? I was townreading the other two wagons. I was not townreading him. Flip gave town more information. I stand by my vote.

Aside from the fact that these aren't actual reasons, this isn't even what you said in the first place.
You said, AND I QUOTE:

This I can get behind. My read on him has changed so...

VOTE: mario

You said your read changed - this implies a townread or, at the very least, a reason not to lynch him which was never stated or explained.
Not only did you not explain how you came to that conclusion in the first place, you ALSO said that it changed which implies that you had reason to scumread, which you've already contradicted by saying you simply "nothing'd" the slot.

I'll even go back and requote my case for you, in case you don't feel like looking.

[Firebringer]

Is there supposed to be a specific implication behind that statement or is there another reason as to why you aren't doing so?

I think Dav has stronger chance of flipping scum right now than pignash. Though I wouldn't mind lynching pig either.

Implication though? You need to be loud sometimes to get stuff done.

[Shinobi]

Is there supposed to be a specific implication behind that statement or is there another reason as to why you aren't doing so?

I think Dav has stronger chance of flipping scum right now than pignash. Though I wouldn't mind lynching pig either.

Implication though? You need to be loud sometimes to get stuff done.

I'm not asking about the "loud and obnoxious bit."
I'm asking about the bit were you claimed that the wagon wasn't happening simply because I was pushing it.

Is there any quantifiable reason as to why you think Dave is more plausible than pignash?

[Firebringer]

Is there any quantifiable reason as to why you think Dave is more plausible than pignash?

I know Dav better than I know Pignash.
Played more games with Davsto than Pig.

This could be Pigs scum game, but I feel more confidant this is Davs scum game.

[Shinobi]

Because?

[Firebringer]

Because?

Davs scum game is weak.
He has a bad time looking like he is scum hunting and thats what it shows from his posts up until this point.

I know he was busy in RL which is why I wasn't pushing it much Day 1 but he definitely only seems interested in survival as scum than finding any scum.

[Shinobi]

I don't get it. How, exactly?

[Dwlee99]

I would bet heaps of money both of them are scum.

[Titus]

I would bet heaps of money both of them are scum.

Both of whom?

@Grib, Drixx needs donuts and cake. He needs to be a fat birdie.