Newbie 1687 (Game Over)

[kagesong]

Also, it appears that most people feel that I am cleared townie, vanilla. If you do not feel that way, please speak up.

[FrogSC2]

If we get a claim of bulletproof, we can ignore anyone I jail as being cleared because there's a roleblocker...bad for you obviously.

If no-one claims it, you're cleared and so is anyone I jail while a kill happens.

Seems to me like a decent trade-off for losing one possible bullet soaking.

I don't think that works to be honest.

If there is a bulletproof claim, it doesn't clear me, but at least it removes one more person from the POE.

If there is a bulletproof claim, we still can't do the plan.

Mafia has most incentive to claim bulletproof right here.

If there is no bulletproof claim, then we can absolutely follow through with the gamed strategy.

If we pursue this route, I can almost guarantee you Mafia will be forced to claim bulletproof to avert our gamed strategy.

And then we're kind of fucked that way as well.

There may be a chance of TWO people claiming bulletproofs which is a risk the mafia will have to take then, in which case it's an EASY heads up between 2 players.

But this assumes we're on the Vertical, not horizontal.

So...

I'm a bit brain dead thinking it over. I'm just spilling thoughts here.

There's a 50/50 chance we actually have a bullet proof claim.

If we have a real bullet proof claim, then our plan is fucked anyway.
If we have a fake bullet proof claim, then there's a 50/50 chance mafia will counterclaim it.

I'm going to write more clearly in my next post. These are just my thoughts.

[FrogSC2]

Here's my though. Either lynch frog tonight, his plan seems to have enough holes in it that he could very well be trying to devise a strategy to distract from himself. Or, lynch PhantomCobalt. 2 possibilities, we win tonight, or lynch the other one and win tomorrow. That's the real POE. Since Frog claimed Rufus as town, I'm clearing him. I think he is attempting to get a counterclaim out of someone else so that his false counterclaim will be ignored.

The thing is, no one has counter claimed Rufus, so Rufus MUST be town.

[FrogSC2]

Whether or not Bulletproof should claim:

Option 1: We are on the vertical, we have Jailkeeper, Roleblocker, and Bulletproof
Option 2: We are on the horizontal, we have jailkeeper, mafiosos, and vanilla towns

Option 1:
A. Real bulletproof claims.
We can assume we are on the vertical.
I am not cleared.
Bulletproof is cleared.
Our gamed strategy for a 100% lock win is fucked and we have to lynch in the POE correctly.

Option 2:
B. No one claims
I am cleared
We have a gamed strategy that will result in a town win 100% of the time

According to this, we will ALWAYS have a bulletproof claim, as whether or not we actually have one, it's in the Mafia's best interest to claim bulletproof. If Mafia does not claim bulletproof and we are in the Horizontal, Mafia loses. So Mafia MUST claim bulletproof.

I think the BEST way we can go about this is setting up a TRAP for the Mafia.

The Trap:

1) We take turns claiming villager or bulletproof in the order of POE (most likely wolf, to least likely).
IMO This should be the order:
Frog - I already claimed villager
PhantomCobalt - Should be the next person to claim
Kagesong - Should be the next person to claim
Notachipmunk - Should be the next person to claim
Reubus - Should be the next person to claim
Drixx - Should be the last person to claim

===========

This will result in ONE of TWO outcomes:
1) We get 1 bulletproof claim (real or fake)
2) We get 2 bulletproof claims (in which case we lynch the both of them for a GG)

===========

Thoughts?

[FrogSC2]

The risk - the real bulletproof claims before the mafia can.

In this situation, mafia no longer has an incentive to claim, and the trap is dead.

That's why I ordered the POE of claims.

Does anyone want to reorder to Claims list?

[FrogSC2]

Otherwise, we lynch in the POE order, no problem. I just like strategizing.

[Rufus Delorian]

Just going to check living player list:

1) Drixx
2) FrogSC2
3) kagesong
4) notachipmunk
5) PhantomCobalt
6) Reubus Swagrid
7) Rufus Delorian

As far as I can tell from the litrallypam lynch, Drixx and Reubus are solidly town, Kagesong and notachipmunk seem likely to be town.

I'm town, I'm certain no-one's going to counterclaim at this point because they'd just be announcing themselves as scum...they might get me mislynched today but then it's game over next day after I flip Jailkeeper.

So it's PhantomCobalt (Replacing Kirroha) or FrogSC2 (Replacing Guttsa)

Kirroha didn't do much but she did think Guttsa was scummy, she pushed a bit, got a reaction then Guttsa dropped out.

FrogSC2 did get the killing vote in on LiterallyPam, my question for the more experienced players is: Would you normally expect the deadline to be extended at that point? Frog voted about 45minutes after the deadline if I remember correctly, would that normally get counted? i.e. was it a legitimate vote or intentionally late, hoping for a no-lynch while still voting for scumpartner?

[FrogSC2]

Just going to check living player list:

1) Drixx
2) FrogSC2
3) kagesong
4) notachipmunk
5) PhantomCobalt
6) Reubus Swagrid
7) Rufus Delorian

As far as I can tell from the litrallypam lynch, Drixx and Reubus are solidly town, Kagesong and notachipmunk seem likely to be town.

I'm town, I'm certain no-one's going to counterclaim at this point because they'd just be announcing themselves as scum...they might get me mislynched today but then it's game over next day after I flip Jailkeeper.

So it's PhantomCobalt (Replacing Kirroha) or FrogSC2 (Replacing Guttsa)

Kirroha didn't do much but she did think Guttsa was scummy, she pushed a bit, got a reaction then Guttsa dropped out.

FrogSC2 did get the killing vote in on LiterallyPam, my question for the more experienced players is: Would you normally expect the deadline to be extended at that point? Frog voted about 45minutes after the deadline if I remember correctly, would that normally get counted? i.e. was it a legitimate vote or intentionally late, hoping for a no-lynch while still voting for scumpartner?

Just to make this clear. My position was always Pam is scummy. I'm the only reason the lynch went through.

For reference, the final votecount:

This is why you looked bad, and it's why you were in the square POE following the flip.

There's also a 50% chance I am cleared Town, I should never be the lynch today for that reason alone. But take a look at all of my game solving interactions this game. I'm as spewed V as they game. Not to mention, I just volunteered Villager when scum would NEED to claim bulletproof here to win to assume the vertical and fuck up our gamed plan.

Please excuse my absence; I was called into work shortly before the deadline yesterday (woo early mornings) and stayed busy most of yesterday.

Final Vote Count - Day 1

literallypam (5):

Reubus Swagrid, Drixx, notachipmunk, PantherPunt, FrogSC2

FrogSC2 (2):

kirroha, Rufus Delorian

Drixx (1):

literallypam

Rufus Delorian (1):

kagesong

No Vote (0)

literallypam,

Mafia Goon

, has been lynched!

It is now Night 1. The deadline is Friday, March 11, at 8:00 AM CST, which is in (expired on 2016-03-11 08:00:00).

Edit: Night won't end until I get a replacement for kirroha.

[FrogSC2]

Rufus, make a list in order of who is most scummy to most villagery, in EXACT order please.

This should be the basis for bulletproof claims.

[FrogSC2]

If PhantomCobalt or Kagesong claim bulletproof, I will GLADLY volunteer to be today's mislynch as long as they're both lynched after me.

[Rufus Delorian]

1) PhantomCobalt
2) notachipmunk
3) Kagesong
4) Reubus Swagrid
5) Drixx

Seems like a decent idea to me, if it's not, please say so before people start claiming things.

I'm going to get some sleep now

[FrogSC2]

Based on Notachipmunk voting Pam, I'd switch 2 and 3.

Even so, we have to decide if we WANT to do this plan in the first place.

[FrogSC2]

I'll tell you the main obvious risk.

If I'm actually a roleblocker (I'm not)

I would have concoted this plan as a way to out the real bulletproof.

The other risk remains the same.

If the real bulletproof claims before the mafia is forced to claim, then we're *kind of* fucked.

The final risk is if we are on the horizontal:

And we force the Mafia to claim bulletproof, then the mafia will get a free ride.

This plan really only works if:
1) You believe I'm not the roleblocker
2) The mafia claims bulletproof first if we're in the vertical
3) We're not on the horizontal - because if this is the case, only one bulletproof will claim (the mafia roleblocker)

========

The result should ALWAYS be that I am not cleared, because we must expect 1 bulletproof claim

It's just a 50/50 if we'll have 2 claims or not

[FrogSC2]

If we're on the vertical, the mafia will know that the bulletproof should claim, so there's no incentive for the mafia to claim bulletproof if he KNOWS he/she is on the vertical.

That's a huge drawback from this plan. :-/

I don't know if this is even a good idea anymore to be honest.

Plenty of time to discuss.

[kagesong]

Here's my though. Either lynch frog tonight, his plan seems to have enough holes in it that he could very well be trying to devise a strategy to distract from himself. Or, lynch PhantomCobalt. 2 possibilities, we win tonight, or lynch the other one and win tomorrow. That's the real POE. Since Frog claimed Rufus as town, I'm clearing him. I think he is attempting to get a counterclaim out of someone else so that his false counterclaim will be ignored.

The thing is, no one has counter claimed Rufus, so Rufus MUST be town.

OR there IS NO JAILOR

[kagesong]

The risk - the real bulletproof claims before the mafia can.

In this situation, mafia no longer has an incentive to claim, and the trap is dead.

That's why I ordered the POE of claims.

Does anyone want to reorder to Claims list?

Except, to avoid this, all the mafia has to do is NOT CLAIM no matter what. Fails.

[kagesong]

So, let's do this.
@Rufus

IF you are vanilla townie, and there is indeed no jailor, which would support a claim of Frog as scum. What reason would you have for claiming jailor?

[FrogSC2]

Kage, there is no way I am today's lynch.

If Rufus is fakeclaiming, it's GG.

If Rufus is true claiming, then it's PhantomCobalt and you in the square POE. With PhantomCobalt first.

[FrogSC2]

The risk - the real bulletproof claims before the mafia can.

In this situation, mafia no longer has an incentive to claim, and the trap is dead.

That's why I ordered the POE of claims.

Does anyone want to reorder to Claims list?

Except, to avoid this, all the mafia has to do is NOT CLAIM no matter what. Fails.

This isn't true at all.

If we're on the horizontal axis, Mafia must claim or we go with the roleblocking claiming plan, players including myself will be mechanically cleared, and then it's GG.

In either scenario, you and PhantomCobalt will be the first to be lynched.

[Drixx]

If there was no Jailkeeper then the game is solved. The Tracker, Cop or Doctor would claim and it's GG.

You can't roleblock a Bulletproof, and the BP being known forces scum to kill the jailkeeper or kill outside the PRs because the Jailkeeper can Jail the BP and the BP doesn't lose the 1-shot BP as being Jailed protects them from the kill.

[kagesong]

Kage, there is no way I am today's lynch.

If Rufus is fakeclaiming, it's GG.

If Rufus is true claiming, then it's PhantomCobalt and you in the square POE. With PhantomCobalt first.

Didn't you yourself clear me as town? Why would I be in your PoE all of a sudden.

[kagesong]

Let me point out that Frog seemed very anti Pam lynch, trying to make everyone else look at other people. Now, D2, Pam is confirmed dead scum. Frog is clearly changing his attitude, claiming that he was on the Pam train all the time. I am now not clear town in his mind and everything he says is tailored to remove any attention from himself. If we follow his PoE, then he gets to skate in the background. So lynch him or Rufus, worst case, win tomorrow.

[FrogSC2]

Kage, there is no way I am today's lynch.

If Rufus is fakeclaiming, it's GG.

If Rufus is true claiming, then it's PhantomCobalt and you in the square POE. With PhantomCobalt first.

Didn't you yourself clear me as town? Why would I be in your PoE all of a sudden.

I cleared you based on tone reads.

Based on mechanical criteria, you're up there in the POE

[FrogSC2]

Let me point out that Frog seemed very anti Pam lynch, trying to make everyone else look at other people. Now, D2, Pam is confirmed dead scum. Frog is clearly changing his attitude, claiming that he was on the Pam train all the time. I am now not clear town in his mind and everything he says is tailored to remove any attention from himself. If we follow his PoE, then he gets to skate in the background. So lynch him or Rufus, worst case, win tomorrow.

Seriously, ISO my posts.

1) I hammer Pam

2) I always supported the Pam lynch

3) I was opening up the field so that after we lynched Pam (who would hopefully flip scum), we'd know what to do later

By shifting the field in different directions, we got more opinions from different players on other players, or lack of opinions.

It also gave hope that the Pam lynch may not happen to whoever the scum teammate was (making them more mechanically obvious if/when they didn't vote for Pam).

I've done a whole lot more to the game over D1 and D2 revolving strategies and play than the vast majority.

Couple this with I am potentially a hard cleared (currently soft cleared) mechanical villager via Rufus' claim he jailkeeped me, and I am NEVER a lynch today, and you and PhantomCobalt are ALWAYS lynches ahead of me, unless either of you counter claim Rufus OR claim bulletproof.

[Reubus Swagrid]

Well I called Literallypam completely wrong...woops.

I'd say Frog definitively claimed Jailkeeper before the night, surely that means the scum is me or him, I'd rather we lynch him first but I can definitely see people wanting me lynched...its a town win even if you do me then Frog so I'm not too bothered about order.

VOTE: FrogSC2

If he claimed falsely he would've been counter claimed by now