Newbie 1687 (Game Over)

[Drixx]

The deadline is the deadline and FroGSC2 caused a no lynch, and I believe it's intentional. I believe he's scum and have strong reasons for that belief. He called out what I have reason to believe was a VT attempting to draw fire by claiming. If I'm dead in the morning you will see my role and it will make sense. If I'm know, I'll say more.

It's a bit of an old post but I'm quoting it here because I was sure Drixx was the bulletproof after it, which was why I was initially reluctant to accept Frog as cleared and kept asking the BP to step forwards.

Also, if there isn't a Roleblocker, I should have been NKd. If there is, it's useful to keep me around as long as BP doesn't claim because it could lead to scum getting cleared...such as if I "jailed" scum last night.

@Kagesong, on D2 you kept arguing that Frog was wrong & not cleared because there could be a Roleblocker, today Drixx has confirmed that there is one but you're not convinced, what changed?

He claimed BP day 3. I see no reason to wait that long. By the way, who did you jail last night?

Check my ISO. I gave the you the reason, which is super embarrassing to me. You may choose not to believe it, but you cannot claim to "see no reason" when I told you exactly why the claim came when it did. I also gave an example of a much better way to fake claim it if I were scum. After all; I could simply have said I was hoping to stop a night kill or simply said nothing at all and claimed only if I got pressure. What's the motive to choose to believe that I would hard bus my partner on day one and then claim for no reason and say I simply forgot?

It's irrelevant whom Rufus jailed because the Roleblocker we

now know

is the last scum can simply shut him off to avoid being caught, and kill whomever he likes.

We get two lynches and there's 3 suspects in the pool. Your refusal to operate logically and you flip flop from your stance yesterday is moving you up that list. Do I need to quote your posts yesterday where you were arguing that Rufus couldn't clear anyone?

[Reubus Swagrid]

Drixx can you reply re this post?

Drixx what do you think of Frogs analysis of Kagesong?

[kagesong]

The deadline is the deadline and FroGSC2 caused a no lynch, and I believe it's intentional. I believe he's scum and have strong reasons for that belief. He called out what I have reason to believe was a VT attempting to draw fire by claiming. If I'm dead in the morning you will see my role and it will make sense. If I'm know, I'll say more.

It's a bit of an old post but I'm quoting it here because I was sure Drixx was the bulletproof after it, which was why I was initially reluctant to accept Frog as cleared and kept asking the BP to step forwards.

Also, if there isn't a Roleblocker, I should have been NKd. If there is, it's useful to keep me around as long as BP doesn't claim because it could lead to scum getting cleared...such as if I "jailed" scum last night.

@Kagesong, on D2 you kept arguing that Frog was wrong & not cleared because there could be a Roleblocker, today Drixx has confirmed that there is one but you're not convinced, what changed?

He claimed BP day 3. I see no reason to wait that long. By the way, who did you jail last night?

Check my ISO. I gave the you the reason, which is super embarrassing to me. You may choose not to believe it, but you cannot claim to "see no reason" when I told you exactly why the claim came when it did. I also gave an example of a much better way to fake claim it if I were scum. After all; I could simply have said I was hoping to stop a night kill or simply said nothing at all and claimed only if I got pressure. What's the motive to choose to believe that I would hard bus my partner on day one and then claim for no reason and say I simply forgot?

It's irrelevant whom Rufus jailed because the Roleblocker we

now know

is the last scum can simply shut him off to avoid being caught, and kill whomever he likes.

We get two lynches and there's 3 suspects in the pool. Your refusal to operate logically and you flip flop from your stance yesterday is moving you up that list. Do I need to quote your posts yesterday where you were arguing that Rufus couldn't clear anyone?

Your "reason" is no better than mine on the literallypam vote, but somehow that's suspect as well. There's so much WIFOM that could be applied to your statement here it's not even funny.

I am posting this only as an example - You claim BP the way you did, figuring this way you could use reverse psychology to get us to assume that you would have claimed differently if you were scum. If you're doing that then I'm clear, because there is no BP. If you're not doing that, I'm probably the most suspect.

Frankly, as I've said, I don't give a damn anymore. Here, as in real life, any opinion I've had has been given the same treatment as toilet paper. I'm really just posting because it's better than lurking at this point.

[Rufus Delorian]

Okay, let's consider your opinion: Drixx is suspicious because he's claiming BP late.

Why would scumDrixx do this?

If he was under threat of being lynched, it could be a last ditch attempt to avoid it...But Drixx wasn't threatened by lynching, he's not even been mentioned as a possible lynchee since RVS because he went after scum D1.
It could be a way to discredit the people cleared by the Jailkeeper, but if that's the intent, why not just kill the Jailkeeper? It's a less risky course to take.

Why would vanillatownieDrixx do this?

To avoid being the target of a NK, selfishly putting his survival over the town win condition

Why would BulletproofDrixx do this?

It was a mistake, as he claims or:
He was hoping to get targeted for NK so his ability wasn't wasted (This would be if he hadn't forgotten)


Which one seems more likely? And don't just say "It could be WIFOM" WIFOM just means, "could be, could not, I don't know"...it contributes nothing, bringing it up only really benefits scum because you can throw doubt on towns legitimate attempts to clear town or find scum.

[Drixx]

Kage doesn't appear to be willing to be honest about what is actually probable, instead appealing to the possibility space and the least likely place in the possibility space.

Yesterday, Kage was trying to argue that Frog wasn't clear and nobody COULD be clear by Rufus, and actually made a rather snide comment about how we just exclude people who don't think like us here at MS, which is most certainly

not

the case. Kage was trying to discredit the idea of being able to clear (and conversely, to find guilty) anyone. Despite people repeatedly saying that a BP claim was required to make Kage's "theory" work, yesterday's ISO is littered with Kage singing a different tune than today.

Who, besides a 1-shot BP and the mafia roleblocker, would have even come to the logical conclusion that nobody could be cleared? Everyone besides Kage ended yesterday on the assumption that people COULD be cleared, and then 1686 ended and I realized, much to my horror, that I had made a terrible mistake. Given how often I am in 3-5 games at once, it's probably bordering on miraculous and due only to my fastidious note taking that this hasn't happened before, but still.

I believe Kage's behavior yesterday indicates coupled with the behavior today puts Kage at the top of the list. I see no rational explanation for yesterday's behavior unless Kage

knew

there had to be a 1-shot BP not claiming. Today, Kage is taking advantage of the fact that my lack of claim was unintentional rather than strategic to try and make people buy that it's WiFoM.


Simple question: How many assumptions do you have to make to assume my claim is a scum fake claim? (Please remember the assumptions that I would both go after literallypam on day one, and refuse to take multiple opportunities to switch wagons without suspicion).

How many do you have to make to believe I just messed up?

What does Occam's razor say?

[notachipmunk]

Here's another sort though everyone kind of post with what each person would have to think through each day as scum- which obv are not all accurate since not all 4 of you are scum.

Rufus: Would have had to use crazy mind control on the real jailkeeper to convince them that they are not the JK so escape freely to victory as conftown. In other words, impossible.

Drixx: D1 would have had to have told pam he was gonna play very risky with some kind of plan in mind, like let's target each other, and then pam either messed it up and Drixx thinks he will be conftown for a solid read very early on and can win even by lynching his partner D1. N1 idk why he would NK Panther. D2 hammered PC, would have seen Frog say he'd have a FOS on anyone who hammered so he NK'ed Frog to avoid. With Frog gone easier to claim BP since the main person who would likely question it is gone. Also would have had to concoct odd reason for claim, and not the same reason used in last game he fakeclaimed it in in case anyone checked.

Reubus: D1 would have gone for early pam vote as something to fall back on if a lynch on pam would happen at any point. Would have had to push for a heavy back and forth interaction as well to separate themselves as partners. Would have to be prepared for a lynch and hope for conftown status due to heavy interactions. N1 also idk why he would NK Panther. D2 try to get Rufus lynched initially until it would seem scummy to keep pushing due to lack of counterclaim. Vote for PC but sure to not be 1st on the vote or the hammer. N2 kill Frog bc he put him in his POE.

kage: D1 mention pam as a suspect to not be attached to pam but never actually vote for. (then the grey area of the late vote for possibly legit reason is whatevs). N1 i don't know why anyone would NK Panther as it turns out, as his only real connection was to Frog. D2 try to get off of Frog's POE and target him by trying to convince others he is not conftown. N2 kill Frog bc Frog wants him lynched, and as someone said, WIFOM NK. This scenario assumes Drixx is BP as otherwise kage doesn't get conftown like they otherwise would.

So if scum would like to come out and tell me if they actually planned it out differently that'd be cool =p

[Drixx]

Occam's Razor.

[notachipmunk]

I wasn't entirely sure if i remembered what Occam's Razor was so I looked it up and found 1 definitions:

1-Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.
2-A fancy term scum use to not get lynched =P

Well see I only made one assumption on the Rufus case which is mind control so he is totally scum omg I knew it!!!!

[notachipmunk]

^that should say *2 definitions

[notachipmunk]

Before anyone somehow misses the sarcasm there, yes that was sarcastic, and no I do not think Rufus is scum.

[kagesong]

Welp, yup, I, as a complete newbie, was using REALLY complex strategy to hide my tail, including PLANNING on a late vote. I tell you what yer real good thur chipmunk critter. GG ya caught me.

[Rufus Delorian]

It doesn't have to be complicated, you put the 6th vote on when 5 were needed, even if the deadline hadn't passed, it wouldn't have had any effect.

[notachipmunk]

Welp, yup, I, as a complete newbie, was using REALLY complex strategy to hide my tail, including PLANNING on a late vote. I tell you what yer real good thur chipmunk critter. GG ya caught me.

Hence why it's in parentheses. The important part was that you didn't vote on it sooner when there were 2 weeks, mentioned pam as a suspect but not act on it. I can kinda get on board with not rushing on a vote for the kill, but the fact that he flipped scum leads to other questions. So yeah the late vote very well

could

have been intentional. As a newbie you could feign that you didn't realize it was the 6th vote when even telling the mod please count this wouldn't matter as the kill didn't need the 6th vote... Even so, not counting it just leaves you neutral on D1, whereas Drixx and Reubus have it as a positive on their list.
If one were to choose to follow the Drixx logic of Occum's Razor, less complex would actually not work in your favor though =p

[notachipmunk]

Damn it's so dead here without Frog, with him everytime I logged on he'd have like 10 new posts.

[Rufus Delorian]

Not sure what else to say, Kagesong seems scummiest to me and we've kinda run that out and said why other people seem less scummy.

If anyone's got alternate scum reads, it'd be good to discuss them but I've got nothing atm

[notachipmunk]

@Drixx question! At what point did you forget that you were BP? I just remembered looking back at page 1 that in the role pms it asked us to reply back confirming our roles, which I imagine is helpful for remembering roles? Anyway, was it right at the start of the game you forgot due to writing it down in the wrong place or did you remember at any point during D1 too?

[Drixx]

@Drixx question! At what point did you forget that you were BP? I just remembered looking back at page 1 that in the role pms it asked us to reply back confirming our roles, which I imagine is helpful for remembering roles? Anyway, was it right at the start of the game you forgot due to writing it down in the wrong place or did you remember at any point during D1 too?

I recall thinking about crumbing it on day one. I don't really recall precisely when I forgot this was the game I was 1-shot BP in. I've got a folder on my desktop called "mafiastuff" and inside of there I have a folder for each game I am designing, a folder for games I've modded (off site plus one on site so far) which are complete, a folder for images I use in general, and in the main folder "mafiastuff" I have txt files which are named after the game. I simply noted 1-shot BP in the wrong notepad txt file, and then I just lost track.

Most of what I was involved in that had me a little too spread thin has completed, but in the interests of erring on the side of caution, I will simply say that you can look at my posts and see for yourself how many games I was in. On top of that I'm working on something that I can't talk about, for the site, and I lost a bunch of it when I finally let windows do the free upgrade to windows 10.

As I said at the start of today: I'm super embarrassed with myself. If we lose this game, I will blame myself 100%. It would have been far superior for the town to know yesterday what the remaining scum already knew, and I simply forgot. Having played mafia on forums for roughly a decade, and as a live game going back into my early teenage years, I have a lot of experience, and I am almost always in at least one newbie game as IC ... but that experience doesn't make me infallible. As much as I like to project confidence and be a good example ... I obviously dropped the ball big time on this one.

What really bothers me about it is that if Newbie 1686 had gone on for another day, I may not have realized and we would now be operating upon the false premise that Rufus could clear people while scum would know that to be untrue. Even worse, if today had gone fast it's possible I could have been shot and the no death could have implicated someone innocent as scum. It could have been much worse, which is what really concerns me. Whatever criticism you have of me making this mistake, believe me I am giving myself a flogging 1000x worse about it.

[kagesong]

The deadline is the deadline and FroGSC2 caused a no lynch, and I believe it's intentional. I believe he's scum and have strong reasons for that belief. He called out what I have reason to believe was a VT attempting to draw fire by claiming. If I'm dead in the morning you will see my role and it will make sense. If I'm know, I'll say more.

It's a bit of an old post but I'm quoting it here because I was sure Drixx was the bulletproof after it, which was why I was initially reluctant to accept Frog as cleared and kept asking the BP to step forwards.

Also, if there isn't a Roleblocker, I should have been NKd. If there is, it's useful to keep me around as long as BP doesn't claim because it could lead to scum getting cleared...such as if I "jailed" scum last night.

@Kagesong, on D2 you kept arguing that Frog was wrong & not cleared because there could be a Roleblocker, today Drixx has confirmed that there is one but you're not convinced, what changed?

He claimed BP day 3. I see no reason to wait that long. By the way, who did you jail last night?

Check my ISO. I gave the you the reason, which is super embarrassing to me. You may choose not to believe it, but you cannot claim to "see no reason" when I told you exactly why the claim came when it did. I also gave an example of a much better way to fake claim it if I were scum. After all; I could simply have said I was hoping to stop a night kill or simply said nothing at all and claimed only if I got pressure. What's the motive to choose to believe that I would hard bus my partner on day one and then claim for no reason and say I simply forgot?

It's irrelevant whom Rufus jailed because the Roleblocker we

now know

is the last scum can simply shut him off to avoid being caught, and kill whomever he likes.

We get two lynches and there's 3 suspects in the pool. Your refusal to operate logically and you flip flop from your stance yesterday is moving you up that list. Do I need to quote your posts yesterday where you were arguing that Rufus couldn't clear anyone?

It's really only irrelevant who Rufus jailed if we assume that you are indeed the bullet proof which would mean there is a bulletproof however I am not making any such assumptions as I am very suspicious of you claiming bulletproof day 3 after we said so many times if you're bulletproof claim now so therefore to tell me that something is irrelevant that is only relevant if we assume that you're telling the truth is attempting to force me to follow your logic and believe you when in fact your actions are very suspicious also I apologize for the poor grammar I don't type very well on my phone which is why this is all one sentence because I use voice to text thank you for understanding

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 3.2

kagesong (1):

Rufus Delorian

notachipmunk (1):

Drixx

No Vote (3):

kagesong, notachipmunk, Reubus Swagrid

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

Deadline is Monday, April 4, 2016 at 8:00 AM CDT, which is in (expired on 2016-04-04 08:00:00).

[kagesong]

VOTE: kagesong

[notachipmunk]

I don't really know what to say about the self-voting =/

[Rufus Delorian]

I do:

Kagesong is L-1

[Drixx]

Ummm... self-voting is never playing towards win con as town, and once there is only one scum, it's not for scum either. Self-voting is not cool Kage.

[Rufus Delorian]

I hear it makes you go blind.

[kagesong]

Ummm... self-voting is never playing towards win con as town, and once there is only one scum, it's not for scum either. Self-voting is not cool Kage.

I don't care about win-con anymore. You really think I'm scum? I'm at L-1.