A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[SirCakez]

Ranger is at like what? L-2? We can get the votes for that.

[podoboq]

If ranger is scum, I'll also sheep spiffeh, because clearly I fucking suck.

pedit: Fuck that, display the true level of certainty you have at all times, don't posture to trick people and THEN try to walk it back at the last second. Either keep the posture up the whole time, until the flip happens, or never posture as such. Becoming uncertain when the wagon you were certain was scum is more likely to be lynched than not is weak evidence of knowledge that the wagon is on town.

In all fairness, that posturing has been kind of obvious to me, and is part of the reason I've doubted spiffeh.

If you're too big and too loud for your own confidence to match, why should I be that confident in your read?

[podoboq]

Ranger is at like what? L-2? We can get the votes for that.

By my math, this is correct. I'd like a votecount to confirm that, though.

[Cerberus v666]

You mean Ranger is your STRONGEST SCUM READ SO STRONG YOU'RE SURE SHE'S GOING TO FLIP AS SCUM, right?

Because that's what you've been saying.

[SirCakez]

There was an equivalent to a scum fruit vendor in Paint Mafia I believe. Don't think I've ever seen one anywhere else though.

[SirCakez]

There's no way we're getting a wagon somewhere else in like 5 hours lol Cerb.

[Cerberus v666]

If ranger is scum, I'll also sheep spiffeh, because clearly I fucking suck.

pedit: Fuck that, display the true level of certainty you have at all times, don't posture to trick people and THEN try to walk it back at the last second. Either keep the posture up the whole time, until the flip happens, or never posture as such. Becoming uncertain when the wagon you were certain was scum is more likely to be lynched than not is weak evidence of knowledge that the wagon is on town.

In all fairness, that posturing has been kind of obvious to me, and is part of the reason I've doubted spiffeh.

If you're too big and too loud for your own confidence to match, why should I be that confident in your read?

I don't mind the posturing, honestly. It's a necessary thing when you have a strong read on someone, but naturally you can't be 100% certain because they didn't scumslip/you don't know the person intimately enough to simply know x is NOT something they would EVER do as town under ANY circumstances. It's the display of uncertainty THE MOMENT the person he's been certain of has more votes than the person he's trying to defend that bugs the hell out of me.

[Cerberus v666]

idk, we've got like 6 people who have checked in in the last hour. that's half of a wagon.

[podoboq]

You mean Ranger is your STRONGEST SCUM READ SO STRONG YOU'RE SURE SHE'S GOING TO FLIP AS SCUM, right?

Because that's what you've been saying.

I think you're nitpicking here. Spiffeh has basically admitted that some level of his confidence has been fabricated in order to get his scumread lynched. That doesn't make spiffeh town, even if the play is questionable. It is NOT the important part here.

If I'm off base here, spiffeh, feel free to correct me.

[Spiffeh]

It's the display of uncertainty THE MOMENT the person he's been certain of has more votes than the person he's trying to defend that bugs the hell out of me.

[SirCakez]

Yeah half of a wagon but most of the game checks in very irregularly soooo it would be iffy

[Spiffeh]

Spiffeh has basically admitted that some level of his confidence has been fabricated in order to get his scumread lynched.

I don't think I ever said this?

[Mirhawk]

Cerberus stop arguing about stupid unrelated shit.

Almost everyone overstates their scumreads.

How the fuck would you ever get anyone to vote with you if the most anyone ever said was "I think maybe that person could be scum".

[podoboq]

If we're seriously discussing the likelihodd of lynching Spiffeh here, then what the fuck. I can go ahead and say right now there's absolutely no universe in which you get 11 votes on Spiffeh in five hours.

[SirCakez]

Who the hell wants to lynch Spiffeh wtf

[podoboq]

Ranger is a scum read of mine

FS is a town read of mine

I'd prefer to lynch a scum read over a town read

This is the way of the world

I read this as you implying that you did what you had to (overstating your confidence in your scum read) in order to get the lynch to happen. I apologize if I misread you.

[Spiffeh]

I am 100% absolutely sure that the Ranger lynch is superior to the FS lynch

I think Ranger is scum and FS is town

I am almost 100% sure Seniors is town based on their recent play

That's really all you should need to know

Stop finding excuses not to join the Ranger wagon

[podoboq]

Who the hell wants to lynch Spiffeh wtf

It feels like Cerb is suggesting that.

There's no way we're getting a wagon somewhere else in like 5 hours lol Cerb.

It felt like this was you pointing that out.

[podoboq]

I don't think there's an excuse to not join the Ranger wagon at this point.

[Cerberus v666]

You mean Ranger is your STRONGEST SCUM READ SO STRONG YOU'RE SURE SHE'S GOING TO FLIP AS SCUM, right?

Because that's what you've been saying.

I think you're nitpicking here. Spiffeh has basically admitted that some level of his confidence has been fabricated in order to get his scumread lynched. That doesn't make spiffeh town, even if the play is questionable. It is NOT the important part here.

If I'm off base here, spiffeh, feel free to correct me.

What is the important part here? And yes, it's a bit nitpicky, but in the unlikely event range flips town AND I die tonight, I'd like to be certain it was noted that spiffeh did some shifty shit at the last second here.

It's the display of uncertainty THE MOMENT the person he's been certain of has more votes than the person he's trying to defend that bugs the hell out of me.

You know there's merit in my position. don't disparage it with your rolling eyes!

pedit: yeah, no I'm not suggesting lynching spiffeh. That's insane.

And, mirhawk, i don't overstate my scumreads. Ever. Because I build up rock solid fucking cases before I decide someone is scum.

We're talking about probabilistic near impossibilities are required for me to be wrong, or incredibly terrible play on the part of claimed PR's/flipped scum.

So yeah. That's a thing you might want to know about me. It's why I'm not a D1 person. Normally I do D1 as pure setup spec theory talk feeling people out pushing them on contradictions in what they've said or pushes they've made, and then get some flips and apply that knowledge using that info. This time I decided to just ignore the bullshit mostly, because I don't like it.

peditx2: not voting ranger guys. There is a .0000001% chance I'll vote her if we're down to 5 minutes in the day phase. There is NO chance I'll vote her before that.

[Mirhawk]

idk, we've got like 6 people who have checked in in the last hour. that's half of a wagon.

You forgot to subtract the people who actually think Ranger's scum.

[SirCakez]

I'm caught up. Vig should be on Snarky or tictac tonight.

[Cerberus v666]

idk, we've got like 6 people who have checked in in the last hour. that's half of a wagon.

You forgot to subtract the people who actually think Ranger's scum.

Valid point.

I'm caught up. Vig should be on Snarky or tictac tonight.

Why tictac? And why Snarky over dramonic? Both have done fuck all, dram only showed up "coincidentally" when someone actually voted him, so even though he's better than snarky in that he's said/done more, he has that little black mark. And Snarky has just like...what? kept saying FS is scum?

...

[Cerberus v666]

To clarify, I actually did read Tic Tacs ISO, and it's not great, sure, but I don't see why it's terrible.

[podoboq]

You mean Ranger is your STRONGEST SCUM READ SO STRONG YOU'RE SURE SHE'S GOING TO FLIP AS SCUM, right?

Because that's what you've been saying.

I think you're nitpicking here. Spiffeh has basically admitted that some level of his confidence has been fabricated in order to get his scumread lynched. That doesn't make spiffeh town, even if the play is questionable. It is NOT the important part here.

If I'm off base here, spiffeh, feel free to correct me.

What is the important part here? And yes, it's a bit nitpicky, but in the unlikely event range flips town AND I die tonight, I'd like to be certain it was noted that spiffeh did some shifty shit at the last second here.

I understand your logic now. I thought you were trying to build a case against Spiffeh / inspire a lack of confidence in the Ranger wagon. It comes at the expense of actually getting votes on Ranger, which we need to happen right now to avoid a no lynch. That's the important thing.