A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Mirhawk]

Alright, I'm Officer Lockstock from the Musical Urinetown.

There are possible benefits to scum doing that though. I mean if I was scum I probably wouldn't do that, as I'm a terrible bluffer. But I can see reasons other scum then me would.

Can't stick around though, I'm going to work.

[True Ogre]

I'm sorry, you just said "urinetown"

are you trolling or is that legit

[True Ogre]

egh whatever

VOTE: Mirhawk

[True Ogre]

I think that's L-2

[SirCakez]

Axelrod - I've ignored Axel all game and don't really have much of on opinion on them. I find them townish, but otherwise I don't really have anything to say about them.

This is really bad
There's no way you just have Axel as "sorta townish, nothing else to say"

[SirCakez]

I'm super tempted to vote Cakez for lol's.

However I would rate the odds of Cakez being lynched today as close to zero.

Piper isn't that likely either, but at least they're more likely then Cakez. I'm thinking... thirty percent.

It would be lower, but I'm expecting my totally awesome reads list to sway the fringe vote.

They're going to be all "Oh snap. Look how personable and genuine Mirhawk is, they must be town".

This is also really weak
He's not actually making an effort to put together a wagon on either TPP or me

[SirCakez]

Pseudovote: Mirhawk
Not sure of current VC and don't want to derphammer

[True Ogre]

His musical doesn't match the town musicals we've seen so far.
If scum want to fakeclaim they're going to need to do better than claiming their actual flavour.

[Axelrod]

On whom?

Cakez. but he's got over 400+ posts which is just a bear to cover.

I've got some free time this morning though, so I'm going to just do it.

[True Ogre]

I, for one, am looking forward to another patented Axelrod case.
It's been a minute.

[podoboq]

His musical doesn't match the town musicals we've seen so far.

If scum want to fakeclaim they're going to need to do better than claiming their actual flavour.

How do any of them match? I assume everyone has a unique musical (except for lovers, which makes sense.) I haven't seen my musical come up either. His musical doesn't match the scum musical either. I don't see any pattern to derive from the musical alone.

[True Ogre]

Well okay then podo.

The town (and potential town) musicals we've seen so far (aside from my own which is upcoming actually but hey) have been active current broadway musicals.

Skybird's wasn't.
Seniors' isn't.
I haven't heard of this urinal thing but it's not on the list.

I imagine there will be a red-herring or two but I'm prepared to go with this as a working theory.

[itlepip]

Mine isn't and I'm town.

[True Ogre]

Alright, then I'm wondering if it's actually worth having a discussion about it.

Never stopped me before.

[True Ogre]

Piper crumbed Matilda which is current.

Ranger was Finding Neverland which is current.
Spiffeh and Tanny were Phantom of the Opera which is current.
Snarky was Wicked which is current.

Skybird was On the Twentieth Century which is not current.
Seniors is Hedwig and the Angry Inch which is not current.

I am Charlie and the Chocolate Factory which is not current but is upcoming in 2016 (neither of the non-current two are upcoming).

pistachion is Chicago which is current.
I think there were one or two more.

[True Ogre]

I think of Tammy as "Tanny" ever since she got into an argument with me and then was nightkilled.
She holds a special place in my hearnt

ooo-OOO-OOO-oo-OOOh
tanny please don't go
:'(

[itlepip]

I am from Mary Poppins.

[True Ogre]

So what's the point of a flavour-cop?

[Dwlee99]

Mine is current.

[podoboq]

Well, I'm Pippin from Pippin, which is current, so maybe True Ogre has a point.

[podoboq]

But mine also isn't currently

on Broadway

.

[Dwlee99]

oh mine is on broadway

[Axelrod]

I think a lot of people have written Cakez off as town the whole game because they liked his early posting.

I

liked his early posting. But that was more or less just a "gut" feeling. And when you look at his actual behavior, and his logic this game - and especially his votes - it's just not Townie.

I think the first niggle that caught my attention was when Cakez was so willing to write off Dramonic's play as just "Dram being Dram" and basically said He always plays like this regardless whether Town or scum, so Cakez was willing to just completely give him a pass. And that's both (1) lazy, and (2) poor play. Incidentally, it looked like Cakez was using a sample size of 1 prior game experience to make this read, which is also not great.

I think more than one person suggested that at the very least Dram would be a good vig. target because of his play/unreadability, and I think it's worth noting that, when Cakez was proposing targets for any Vig to shoot at, he pushed hard for Snarky, and then suggested TicTac, and didn't mention Dram at all. And when challenged on why not Dramonic, he conceded Dram would be OK, but still preferred the others. And his logic here makes no sense. Because if someone is both (1) useless and (2) unreadable, which Dram unquestionably was being the first, and Cakez was arguing the second, then doesn't that make them the ideal vig. shot? It's the same logic he was using to push for Snarky, but somehow it didn't apply to Dramonic?

Anyway, that was just one little bit of inconsistency in his logic

Ranger Wagon

Then there was the whole Ranger Wagon. I already posted about this. Cakez did a complete 180 on Ranger in less than a day. Making a big post on why he thinks Ranger is Town one day, then turning around and voting her the next. He tried to say it like it was Ranger or nobody, but there was a completely viable alternate wagon - FS almost

got

lynched D1. I think less than ~6 hrs before the deadline his lynch was being more or less assumed because there wasn't "time" to vote anyone else. But Cakez didn't vote for him. Cakez voted Mirhawk. Cakes voted TicTac. Even though he had made a whole "Why Seniors is scum" post just a day before. This is the kind of stuff I'm taking about.

And even as he was voting Ranger, Cakez appeared to be trying to set up the following days lynches without any consideration for what the flips were going to be. He said he "demanded" we open with a TicTac wagon tomorrow, and, true to his word, voted TicTac immediately (also did the

exact

same thing on D3, vote now abandoned). I'm not saying that his read on TicTac should have necessarily changed after Ranger/Spiffeh/Tammy flips, but the behavior there is something that scum just often do. It's just easy and convenient. TicTac was going to be scum regardless of how Ranger flipped - which, if your reason for believing that is independent, fine, but Cakez was then trying to

use

the Ranger flip to support his TicTac vote. Which is weird because he also said that we should look at TicTac if Ranger had flipped scum. And you can't do that both ways. Not if you're being honest.

Possible slip Here, when Cakes makes the statement that "this isn't an elaborate game like Tarot," (and then that only "very standard roles" had been flipped). How could he say that based on the info. we had at the time? Not unless Cakez had access to a lot more role information than was genreally available. This was also just not a reason to Townread FS. Pointed out multiple times that Fruit Vender is a role that can go either on Town or scum. But now, apparently he's got FS as a "strong" Townread.

Skybird Wagon

Is notable because Cakez WAS voting for Skybird on D2. And it was the leading wagon, but he then

left

the wagon to try and push the alternate (Mirhawk). His reasoning: he was "No longer confident" about Skybird, and Mirhawk was "better", without explaining/arguing either. He did late say that Skybird could die (pretty much right at the end when the lynch was foregone conclusion though, and he still didn't vote there, though it didn't matter).

I also note, he did the same thing with Dramonic on D2 as D1. Even though he

said

that vigging Dramonic was the best way tio deal with him, earlir in the day, when he came out with his late in the day list of Vig. Targets, Dramonic was not on it.

I already made the point here about how it appeared Cakez started to default to "meta" reads on a lot of people late in the day. Basically just saying so-and-so feels this way or that based on his experience with them, which is super lazy/convenient. And that has continued.

Also, on a more personal basis, I point out that Cakez has been saying he could vote me forever, and not once made an actual argument for it, despite saying he would do so. And this most recent vote is literally him taking a census/dipping his toe in the water/finger to the wind and saying "Hey, there have been a lot of people who have said they could get behind an Axelrod lynch, so how about this..."

He has now been more or less throwing out the same names (Mirhawk, TicTac, me) the entire game as his scum-reads. And very little comment on other people. I already dissected his "cases" on both of them (TicTac, bad; Mirhawk, kind of null).

So, yeah, bad logic, bad votes, myopic scumhunting.

Vote: SirCakez

I don't know if this can go anywhere in the time we have, but there's nothing Townie here.

[Axelrod]

I, for one, am looking forward to another patented Axelrod case.
It's been a minute.

I hope you enjoy.

[Axelrod]

On the Broadway question, I believe my show is currently on Broadway, for whatever that is worth.