A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Cerberus v666]

I can't convince you of either of those things.

You could if you put some work into it. Can't convince anyone if shit if all you can say is "they feel town!".

Oh, true. I should have said "Without iso diving, which I've avoided doing this entire game, I can't find sufficient evidence one way or another to convince someone else."

[The Pied Piper]

And really, even if you don't want to put in work and you're stuck in lazy mode, describe to me the perspective of these last few posts:

You want to lynch scum. If I'm scum and you don't lynch me today, I kill someone that has the potential to lynch me tomorrow and then I'm harder to lynch the next day. If you think I'm scum and you want to lynch me, you lynch me right here and right now.

I've been calling axel scum just as long as I've beenc alling you scum, honey.

I point out that if I'm scum, the chances of me getting lynched go down every day that one of FS/we aren't lynched today, not up. His response is "I've been calling Axel scum for a really long time!" even though he's been absolutely obsessed with our slot and not absolutely obsessed with Axel's. I don't think he'd be so willing to compromise if he was scum and just really thought that I was scum and wanted to lynch me; the Mirhawk push in particular looks COMPLETELY out of whack because if Mirhawk flips town, he looks worse and we look better and it makes it more justifiable for us as scum to lynch him. When we call out his reasons for scumreading us as the pieces of shit that they are, he backs off and talks about we aren't in a 1v1 and we can't make it one and how his reads are so substantial and ours aren't instead of saying "no, here are the reasons why you are scum" and at least attempting to defend them like dramonic did.

Do you really think that's town, Cerb?

[The Pied Piper]

THE 1V1 ISNT HAPPENING.

WE HAVEN'T GOT THE SUPPORT EITHER WAY

SMARTEN UP AND BUS YOUR PARTNER

Does this read like a genuine response to you?

[Rob14]

talah replaces True Ogre.

[pistachi0n]

UNVOTE: Mirhawk
VOTE: Piper

Why do you keep unvoting Mirhawk? We have less than a day left.

Would you vote FS if it was viable?

Absolutely. FS is my first choice of lynch, but I'm a lot more scared of a no lynch than I am of lynching town.

[Rob14]

Vote Count #3.13:

Mirhawk:

Marquis, Cerberus v666, itlepip, davesaz, pistachi0n, SirCakez (6)

Axelrod:

podoboq, Friendless Seniors, dramonic (3)

Friendless Seniors:

The Pied Piper, Flubbernugget (2)

The Pied Piper:

Dwlee99, Mirhawk (2)

SirCakez:

Axelrod (1)

Dwlee99:

Malakittens (1)

Not Voting:

talah

With 16 players alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-05-08 10:15:00)

[The Pied Piper]

can we PLEASE lynch axel OR piper.

Pick one.

And what the fuck is he doing going from this to "IT'S NOT A 1V1 BETWEEN US! I KNOW YOU WANT TO MAKE IT ONE BUT IT'S NOT BECAUSE I HAVE MORE SUBSTANTIAL READS HUEHUEHUEHUEHE"? Axel has 4 votes. I have 2. Dramonic would vote us, FS would move over, Mirhawk would move over, there's plenty of paranoia abounding on us from all angles. Why isn't he pushing us today when this is, again, the best opportunity to get us lynched?

Because he knows that if we 1v1, he will die, and he knows that there is no way in hell that we get mislynched after he flips scum.

[The Pied Piper]

UNVOTE: Mirhawk
VOTE: Piper

Why do you keep unvoting Mirhawk? We have less than a day left.

Would you vote FS if it was viable?

Absolutely. FS is my first choice of lynch, but I'm a lot more scared of a no lynch than I am of lynching town.

Will you be around near deadline?

[Cerberus v666]

Did I miss a Mirhawk push from FS?

And, I assume you meant to say "...compromise if he was town...." right? You said scum there, and it doesn't make sense.

Also, I'm null on that entire exchange between the two of you. I see your point, I don't think it's impossible for him to do that as town (or even especially unlikely). Of course, I think part of this is because I've only ever seen hiplop at length as scum, and he isn't playing the way I recall seeing him play as scum.

On the other hand, he was never under scrutiny all game long in my past experiences.

Pedit: that one does actually? I mean it reads as exactly what I'm thinking, like the whole idea of you two 1ving at this stage in the day is hilarious, and I even outlined right after why a lynch wouldn't be happening in the set of {FS, TPP} today.

[The Pied Piper]

VOTE: mirhawk

I was wrong once maybe wrong again

I'm just so tired of being ignored dram :\

we're right, but these people will NEVER listen.

and maybe pressure in this direction can help out

be sad.

I don't want him to die

It's blatant survivalism sure. Pretty lazy too. Why are you being so lazy in your attempt to stay alive FS??

Survivalist still isn't AI. :/

are you fucking kidding me?

seriously?

I push and push trying to gamesolve ALL FUCKING GAME WHILE BEING BACKED INTO A CORNER. PUSHING PEOPLE THAT AREN'T POPULAR

I FUCKING BANDWAGON ONE TIME AND YOU SAY THIS?!

YOURE THE ONE DOING NOTHING, CERB.

[The Pied Piper]

Pedit: that one does actually? I mean it reads as exactly what I'm thinking, like the whole idea of you two 1ving at this stage in the day is hilarious, and I even outlined right after why a lynch wouldn't be happening in the set of {FS, TPP} today.

You think that he thinks that this situation is hilarious? Why? It doesn't really mesh with his play anywhere else during this day, does it?

[The Pied Piper]

Also, I'm null on that entire exchange between the two of you. I see your point, I don't think it's impossible for him to do that as town (or even especially unlikely). Of course, I think part of this is because I've only ever seen hiplop at length as scum, and he isn't playing the way I recall seeing him play as scum.

I don't think that it's impossible for him to do it as town, I just don't think it's particularly likely at all. I don't think "he didn't do this as scum when I saw him as scum" is a particularly good reason to townread him, but I'm saying this while not really having an idea what games you saw him as scum in or what you think "this" that he didn't do is.

[The Pied Piper]

Why would he, as town, pretend that his reads on Axel and his reads on me were equivalent? Do you really think that's the case?

[The Pied Piper]

Rob: Could you send out a mass-prod that doesn't count against activity but would get more players in thread this close to deadline?

[The Pied Piper]

By which I mean your welcome for leaving you all a comprehensive reads list so you can see what my thoughts on all the players in the game were after I'm dead. It's no big deal, it only took up an hour of my time.

I'm glad to see that you read it thoroughly and have questions or opinions on the things I said.

I'm not at all annoyed/disappointed with you for only having an opinion on an inane nothing comment I threw out there before making it.

This is also a post I think that is more likely to come from town; antagonizing an IC as scum when there's a wagon on you is a great way to get yourself lynched. If he was scum, I'd expect that this post would be worded a bit more diplomatically.

[Cerberus v666]

Pedit: that one does actually? I mean it reads as exactly what I'm thinking, like the whole idea of you two 1ving at this stage in the day is hilarious, and I even outlined right after why a lynch wouldn't be happening in the set of {FS, TPP} today.

You think that he thinks that this situation is hilarious? Why? It doesn't really mesh with his play anywhere else during this day, does it?

No no, I mean I find a lynch on one of the two of you, based on the deadline and general thread sentiment, and the strength, in terms of sheer volume, of those calling for other lynches, to be so unlikely that any serious attempt to do so is something I can, and will, laugh at as a waste of time.

Also, I'm null on that entire exchange between the two of you. I see your point, I don't think it's impossible for him to do that as town (or even especially unlikely). Of course, I think part of this is because I've only ever seen hiplop at length as scum, and he isn't playing the way I recall seeing him play as scum.

I don't think that it's impossible for him to do it as town, I just don't think it's particularly likely at all. I don't think "he didn't do this as scum when I saw him as scum" is a particularly good reason to townread him, but I'm saying this while not really having an idea what games you saw him as scum in or what you think "this" that he didn't do is.

I agree that it's a shit reason. It's why I dislike meta. Nevertheless, that is where my sentiments lie, and since I'm simply not interpreting FS' posts the way others are (just like I'm not interpreting yours the same way), it's unlikely that my view is going to change prior to me putting in the time to just dive in...and I'm not just going to sheep either of you onto the other, particularly when my actual scum read(s) are on the verge of being lynched.

The expressed thread sentiment, at this time, is clearly mirhawk or axel, with FS as a distant but not implausible third. I'm not going to support a FS lynch. You called axel scum for doing nothing (which is what you called fs scum for in the same post, actually, but I get that you have more reasons than just that), so I don't see why there shouldn't be compromise on axel for today.

Pedit: only if the IC was vocal. Pistachi0n isn't.

[The Pied Piper]

Also, they did lie. They said they couldnt explain their read on Tictac without outing a whole bunch of PR's.

The question that Plot was answering when they said we couldn't elaborate on something without outing a bunch of PRs was in response to itlepip asking WHY we crumbed the inno on Tictac, which we couldn't explain without outing PRs and wasn't a lie. You're right that we could have handled it better as either alignment, but that's not significant unless you believe we have a strong incentive to handle it as one alignment over another.

[The Pied Piper]

I could be swayed onto an Axel wagon.
Just sayin

I'd do this, but it actually feels like Mirhawk's just given up and I don't know what to make of that.

Axel's had his "communication issues" for half or more of this dayphase and I think regardless of what happens today he's in the spotlight tomorrow.

This, incidentally, is a pretty good answer to your question, Cerb.
Compromising on Axel is a compromise that isn't going to make the game move forward in any way whatsoever. The only thing that happens tomorrow if Axel is lynched is the day that's happening right now until it gets really close to deadline and then people compromise on me or FS and one of us gets lynched. I know that you think that the thread sentiment is sitting on their thumbs and doing nothing and will inevitably end up on the top two wagons because people are too lazy to do anything different, but I disagree; again, if people actually show up and if people read FS's posts, I don't think that they will be unwilling to vote him, and I'm willing to put in all the effort and work that it takes to make him dead.

[Cerberus v666]

*sigh* do as you wish. Just don't let today end in a no lynch.

[The Pied Piper]

I think a lot of people have written Cakez off as town the whole game because they liked his early posting.

I

liked his early posting. But that was more or less just a "gut" feeling. And when you look at his actual behavior, and his logic this game - and especially his votes - it's just not Townie.

I think the first niggle that caught my attention was when Cakez was so willing to write off Dramonic's play as just "Dram being Dram" and basically said He always plays like this regardless whether Town or scum, so Cakez was willing to just completely give him a pass. And that's both (1) lazy, and (2) poor play. Incidentally, it looked like Cakez was using a sample size of 1 prior game experience to make this read, which is also not great.

I think more than one person suggested that at the very least Dram would be a good vig. target because of his play/unreadability, and I think it's worth noting that, when Cakez was proposing targets for any Vig to shoot at, he pushed hard for Snarky, and then suggested TicTac, and didn't mention Dram at all. And when challenged on why not Dramonic, he conceded Dram would be OK, but still preferred the others. And his logic here makes no sense. Because if someone is both (1) useless and (2) unreadable, which Dram unquestionably was being the first, and Cakez was arguing the second, then doesn't that make them the ideal vig. shot? It's the same logic he was using to push for Snarky, but somehow it didn't apply to Dramonic?

Anyway, that was just one little bit of inconsistency in his logic

Ranger Wagon

Then there was the whole Ranger Wagon. I already posted about this. Cakez did a complete 180 on Ranger in less than a day. Making a big post on why he thinks Ranger is Town one day, then turning around and voting her the next. He tried to say it like it was Ranger or nobody, but there was a completely viable alternate wagon - FS almost

got

lynched D1. I think less than ~6 hrs before the deadline his lynch was being more or less assumed because there wasn't "time" to vote anyone else. But Cakez didn't vote for him. Cakez voted Mirhawk. Cakes voted TicTac. Even though he had made a whole "Why Seniors is scum" post just a day before. This is the kind of stuff I'm taking about.

And even as he was voting Ranger, Cakez appeared to be trying to set up the following days lynches without any consideration for what the flips were going to be. He said he "demanded" we open with a TicTac wagon tomorrow, and, true to his word, voted TicTac immediately (also did the

exact

same thing on D3, vote now abandoned). I'm not saying that his read on TicTac should have necessarily changed after Ranger/Spiffeh/Tammy flips, but the behavior there is something that scum just often do. It's just easy and convenient. TicTac was going to be scum regardless of how Ranger flipped - which, if your reason for believing that is independent, fine, but Cakez was then trying to

use

the Ranger flip to support his TicTac vote. Which is weird because he also said that we should look at TicTac if Ranger had flipped scum. And you can't do that both ways. Not if you're being honest.

Possible slip Here, when Cakes makes the statement that "this isn't an elaborate game like Tarot," (and then that only "very standard roles" had been flipped). How could he say that based on the info. we had at the time? Not unless Cakez had access to a lot more role information than was genreally available. This was also just not a reason to Townread FS. Pointed out multiple times that Fruit Vender is a role that can go either on Town or scum. But now, apparently he's got FS as a "strong" Townread.

Skybird Wagon

Is notable because Cakez WAS voting for Skybird on D2. And it was the leading wagon, but he then

left

the wagon to try and push the alternate (Mirhawk). His reasoning: he was "No longer confident" about Skybird, and Mirhawk was "better", without explaining/arguing either. He did late say that Skybird could die (pretty much right at the end when the lynch was foregone conclusion though, and he still didn't vote there, though it didn't matter).

I also note, he did the same thing with Dramonic on D2 as D1. Even though he

said

that vigging Dramonic was the best way tio deal with him, earlir in the day, when he came out with his late in the day list of Vig. Targets, Dramonic was not on it.

I already made the point here about how it appeared Cakez started to default to "meta" reads on a lot of people late in the day. Basically just saying so-and-so feels this way or that based on his experience with them, which is super lazy/convenient. And that has continued.

Also, on a more personal basis, I point out that Cakez has been saying he could vote me forever, and not once made an actual argument for it, despite saying he would do so. And this most recent vote is literally him taking a census/dipping his toe in the water/finger to the wind and saying "Hey, there have been a lot of people who have said they could get behind an Axelrod lynch, so how about this..."

He has now been more or less throwing out the same names (Mirhawk, TicTac, me) the entire game as his scum-reads. And very little comment on other people. I already dissected his "cases" on both of them (TicTac, bad; Mirhawk, kind of null).

So, yeah, bad logic, bad votes, myopic scumhunting.

Vote: SirCakez

I don't know if this can go anywhere in the time we have, but there's nothing Townie here.

And then Axelrod makes posts like this which demonstrate how completely and genuinely disconnected and lost he is from the rest of the game. My major reason for him being scum is less that he's done nothing and more that it feels like everything he posts is wheels spinning and he never seems to get anywhere; I think that it's decently possible that he's this wheel-spinny as town, and I don't think if this is his idea of not getting lynched as scum than he will be able to do anything to escape being lynched later. The last time I played with him, it was multi-ball and I thought he was scum for similar reasons but in the very very end he finally starting making very strong posts and suddenly I had a townread on him, and part of me is still waiting for him to breakout the content here that he did there. I can't see anything changing with my FS read; he's been given plenty of space, he's done nothing with it. He needs to die.

[Cerberus v666]

I'll have you know I weighed the value of getting out of bed/interrupting my anime watching, against the gain of actively working to keep FS alive today, and my laziness won.

I still think it's dumb, but I won't fight you tooth and nail like I was planning.

[The Pied Piper]

Marquis, is there ANYTHIng I do tht you consider a towntell. It sure doesn't seem like it. How many times have you made this exact post bit replaced self awareness with something else

Sigh. You're probably scum.

marquis literally did it in my last game with him as scum

won the game off of it, too.

Don't like these two posts; there's the same exact perception of Marquis that Skybird had with the "you never read me as town but you're scum this game for reading me as scum". I don't understand why this would pop up in this specific circumstance, either; Marquis was pointing out that hiplop's self-awareness wasn't town because the way he tried to make his Mirhawk push look town was skeevy as hell and I'm pretty sure hiplop knows that isn't particularly alignment indicative for him.

[Rob14]

davesaz has been prodded.

In response to TPP, no, I won't be sending out a mass prod. It is the players' responsibility to manage their activity with regard to the deadline, not the moderator's.

[Friendless Seniors]

Compromising on Axel is a compromise that isn't going to make the game move forward in any way whatsoever.

Nacho, I really don't understand you right now. You say things like these and then you say that Axel is scum.
I don't want you dead today. I want Axel to get lynched. I think an Axel townflip begs for a mirhawk/dramonic vi

But then again- you don't think that this town is large enough for the both of us.
That's fine. You want Axel dead, right? I want axel dead. I don't understand this attitude of "if axel is scum, he'll get lynched eventually." In fact, I really don't like that attitude.
If you want, then the hypothetical vig-that-still-has-bullets-left can decide our fates.

Do you want to talk to me about anything that I've said? Not hiplop- me.

I wish marquis were here.

I legitimately think that we have enough people that are solid town that this game is 100% solvable.
considering itlepip is town, and then the marquis/dave/mala trio, and you clearing flubber, and then talah and podo being likely town, this game should be cut and dry, or under wraps, if those expressions fit. (I noticed that I have a habit of using weird idioms that I don't entirely know the meaning behind)

cheers,

EP

[Friendless Seniors]

I still think that a mirhawk scumflip makes TPP look slightly better.
mirhawk being scum isn't gelling with the other people that i think might be scum and so i really feel like i need a flip.