Open 635 - JK9++ (Game Over)

[SirCakez]

If the team has RC/Titus on it I'm semi-okay with them winning.

Wtf is this

[Postie]

I'm seriously not understanding how you don't see Smith as scum right now though.

No, he's scum. Just the scumread I'm least sure on.

[RadiantCowbells]

Just a sec.

Cakez, we're lynching in the VTs. Probably you.

Why should we believe you're town and who are you most certain is scum in the VTs?

[SirCakez]

Because there's literally no resistance to my lynch at all., I'm a go-to mislynch in MyLo (see: Open 623, Legend of Zelda), obvscum like Titus have been pushing me all game, I wouldn't have killed Heartless who was townreading me, etc.
Most certain Thor is scum in the VTs
Then mhsmith

[SirCakez]

Like fuck

look at all of these people going, "hmmm I'm fine lynching Cakez" in MyLo. There's no way that's how scum goes down in this scenario.

[SirCakez]

rip discussion?

[mhsmith0]

I don't answer to you.

@Postie
If you'd prefer to lynch Thor first I'm totally fine with that. I'm seriously not understanding how you don't see Smith as scum right now though.

And I don't answer to you, so I guess we agree on that whole thing (sort of). I'm kinda curious why you think I'm mafia other than "PoE and I think FA is obv!town" though. FWIW, in the event of a red flip, I'd actually like you to investigate my slot tonight (although again, you don't answer to me so whatever).

@all: why would we be lynching outside RC/Thor/No Lynch? At least one of RC/Thor just about HAS TO BE mafia given the lack of hammer. I mean, yes, it's cool to try and nail a mafia PR, but we're in MYLO and I feel like the time for gambling in this manner is kind of past us.

[mhsmith0]

@SC: I get that setup talk is (apparently) boring to you, but please pay attention to it. If Thor is mafia, then Titus and I cannot both also be mafia. If Titus is mafia, then she must be partnered with exactly one of the VT claims, and either Postie (a behaviorally plausible mafia but feels near 100% cleared given how bizarre the night actions would need to be for her to be mafia) or RC.

[mhsmith0]

I'm seriously not understanding how you don't see Smith as scum right now though.

No, he's scum. Just the scumread I'm least sure on.

Actually could you lay out your scumread on me? RC doesn't answer to me, but it'd be nice if someone bothered to actually lay out the case.

[RadiantCowbells]

What if Cakez is actually town and FA's scum?

[RadiantCowbells]

Ehh.

But Smith is pushing for the Thor lynch, though I'd guess that all the scum would be trying to distance from each other to try and get a mislynch onto the real VT.

[SirCakez]

I'm aware mh, RC asked who was most likely scum in the VTs.
RC why are you so stuck on the 3 VTs being scum theory?

[RadiantCowbells]

Neither Ranger nor Titus has ever managed to fool me as scum, and I have an inno result on Ranger.

I hate how all the VTs are trying to push for a lynch in the PRs.

[RadiantCowbells]

Before we go anywhere, all the VT claims:

If there's only 1 scum in the VTs, who is it?

[SirCakez]

Thor

[RadiantCowbells]

Me and Ranger were never both on Thor long enough to enable a quickhammer, correct?

[SirCakez]

You were both on him for a pretty damn long time iirc

[mhsmith0]

I'm aware mh, RC asked who was most likely scum in the VTs.
RC why are you so stuck on the 3 VTs being scum theory?

If RC is town, then from his perspective, it's either Postie-Titus-x or 3 VT claims. So there's an obvious bias inherent to his position if he's town, especially if he dismisses the Postie-Titus-x scenario as unlikely. Now, I'm not sold on him being town, and I don't think that he in fact HAD dismissed the Postie-Titus-x possibility, but if he is town and does think that Postie-Titus-x doesn't make sense, then of course he'd be "stuck on" the 3VT mafia paradigm. Like, duh.
(and the same is basically true from a town!Titus perspective, except there she'd need to dismiss RC-Ranger for that logic to hold)

Similarly, any VT claim who is actually VT would have only ONE possible "3 VT" mafia team combination to consider, and then a whole both of potential "2 PR + 1 VT claim" scenarios to consider. Which means that any such player who dismissed a RC-Ranger team would be naturally focused on Titus, and any such player who dismissed a Titus-Postie team would be naturally focused on RC. Again, like, duh.

Where it gets more interesting is the Ranger and Postie slots. If they're town, they have much less relevant info than anyone else who is town, and they then have to decide who to believe and where to vote.

But I don't think the fact that RC has been focused on a 3 VT scenario is by itself inherently non-credible; I'm reading him as mafia for other reasons.

ninja'd: @RC: Aren't you and Ranger both still on Thor? So if it was a FA/SC/MHS or Postie/Titus/x(other than Thor) team, it could be quick-hammered even now? Or did I miss an unvote? As far as who the "x" is in a "2 PR + 1 VT" team, if it's Titus-Postie, the x is very likely Thor (basically it has to be given non hammer, although I guess in that world then they'd have blown their strongman and their roleblock, so I guess they'd be more careful with quick-hammer, so MAYBE it's not Thor in that world). If it's you and Ranger, I think it's FA. If it's you and Titus... I don't know.

[RadiantCowbells]

Yeah, so unless scum were explicitly not interested in quickhammering Thor should be scum.

Not that Sircakez isn't scum anyway.

ninja'd: @RC: Aren't you and Ranger both still on Thor? So if it was a FA/SC/MHS or Postie/Titus/x(other than Thor) team, it could be quick-hammered even now? Or did I miss an unvote? As far as who the "x" is in a "2 PR + 1 VT" team, if it's Titus-Postie, the x is very likely Thor (basically it has to be given non hammer, although I guess in that world then they'd have blown their strongman and their roleblock, so I guess they'd be more careful with quick-hammer, so MAYBE it's not Thor in that world). If it's you and Ranger, I think it's FA. If it's you and Titus... I don't know.

Umm.

Except that if that's the case we've basically already got our choice of hammer on Cakez and Thor.

Were you planning to actually do something about that?

[mhsmith0]

Yeah, so unless scum were explicitly not interested in quickhammering Thor should be scum.

Not that Sircakez isn't scum anyway.

ninja'd: @RC: Aren't you and Ranger both still on Thor? So if it was a FA/SC/MHS or Postie/Titus/x(other than Thor) team, it could be quick-hammered even now? Or did I miss an unvote? As far as who the "x" is in a "2 PR + 1 VT" team, if it's Titus-Postie, the x is very likely Thor (basically it has to be given non hammer, although I guess in that world then they'd have blown their strongman and their roleblock, so I guess they'd be more careful with quick-hammer, so MAYBE it's not Thor in that world). If it's you and Ranger, I think it's FA. If it's you and Titus... I don't know.

Umm.

Except that if that's the case we've basically already got our choice of hammer on Cakez and Thor.

Were you planning to actually do something about that?

Well, at this point we have:

SirCakez (2): Titus, Postie
Thor665 (2): RadiantCowbells, Ranger

So if it's a FA/MHS/x team, we can go ahead hammer our choice (although lack of day chat probably makes organizing that difficult). I don't think you're especially interested in living in a world in which I'm town, but try and look at it from my perspective (i.e VT) anyway. Right now, plausible scenarios are:

1) RC-Ranger-x - x could be anyone, you two could be bussing or going for the win
2) RC-Titus-x - x could be anyone, you two are distancing your votes from each other, and it's plausible that the x is FA and both wagons will end the game
3) Titus-Postie-x - if it's them, they're making kind of a blatant attempt to save Thor, which means he's their buddy or it's just WIFOM
4) 3 VT's - both wagons are on mafia

So basically, I have no particularly strong reason right now to prefer either of the two wagons over the other. I suppose the longer this goes on, the harder it gets to see an RC-Ranger team (unless it's with SC), and ditto a Titus-Postie team (unless it's with Thor), but that's kind of all I'm getting from the current game state.

If I'm missing something, then what am I missing? Let's start with the dipole between you and Thor. Why should I read you town and Thor mafia? If you're town, then he's (from your perspective) more or less lock mafia given the non-hammer. But from my perspective, Thor is ONLY mafia if he's partnered with:

- FA and SC
- Titus and Postie
- RC and Ranger
- RC and Titus

that's a fairly limited set of teams that Thor could be on from my perspective. And two of them include you, one of them seems ridiculous given the night actions (Titus-Postie), and the last seems really questionable given the night actions and overall game state (FA-SC). So why are you obv!town and Thor obv!wolf? Because I'd need a pretty good reason to vote Thor over you right now, given the data that I have to deal with.

And that's especially true given that you've sold FA as obv!town (which, if true, means that from my perspective if MUST be a 2 PR + 1 VT setup). So if FA is town, then you are a wolf or Titus/Postie is the team. So given all of that, what am I missing? Am I wrong to dismiss Titus-Postie? Are you wrong to call FA town? Because if it's not Titus and Postie or FA and SC, then from my perspective, you MUST be mafia given the game state. Or am I wrong?

PS The same more or less applies to the other wagon, subbing Titus for you and SC for Thor. And nothing at all in the game state seems inconsistent with an RC-Titus team splitting up their votes in MYLO.

[RadiantCowbells]

You are claiming to believe that I'm scum yet you're only addressing me.

Is there a reason for this?

[mhsmith0]

You are claiming to believe that I'm scum yet you're only addressing me.

Is there a reason for this?

Yes (well, mainly yes - I have addressed others too, though less than I've addressed you). A couple reasons, in fact:

1) You're saying things that are more interesting than everyone else is.
2) I'm trying to decide if I'm actually wrong in my read of you.
3) Getting a solid read on you is very high value given the game state (i.e. if you're town, then Ranger MUST be town and Thor pretty much MUST be mafia).

Honestly, I read you and I'm pretty null on direct reading your slot, with the read much more of a "well the game state just doesn't make sense if it isn't RC" sort of thing. So I want to figure out if there's a good reason to think that I'm simply wrong with my read of the game state, or if you will somehow say something that will get me to think "OK that's clear wolfy BS" or "yeah that actually leans town". If and when a read on you gets more solid, then I think my actions become a lot clearer (if I get a solid town read on you, vote for Thor; if I get a solid wolf read on you, then push harder on selling that read to the rest of the town).

So if there's legit reason to town read you, let me know. If there's legit reason to town read FA as well, let me know. Because if you and FA are both town, then it's Titus-Postie-Thor, and then the night actions are what they are, and I'm being a dumbass for reading too much into them (I read Postie of late and think that it's an increasingly plausible scenario, fwiw). So if that's the answer, sell me on it. Or if the answer is that it's a "3 VT" kind of world (i.e. FA is NOT town), sell me on that instead (or if you think it's me/Thor/SC, then sell FA on it I guess). Because if you're town, you're going to have to sell me on a world in which you're not mafia in order to get me to join you anywhere. Because right now I'm really struggling to see it.

[Titus]

@MrSmith, Reads on the VTs

[mhsmith0]

@Titus: Yeah, yeah, working on it. Since it was an "all or just one" game state among those three, sorting them individually wasn't really my priority so far, although I guess the fact that there are two competing wagons on VT claims kinda shifts that a lot. I'll re-read and give thoughts when able, likely sometime tonight.

@PR's: can someone give me the case for RC as town, or the "it's gotta be 3 VT claims" case?

[Thor665]

And Its not about the fact that you didn't seem like scum buddies to me. Its the fact your the one who is telling that which always pisses me off. You have no right to read yourself. If your scum your just screwing my mind, if your town your view about yourself means nothing to me. so instead of trying to bring up one fight or another to prove your not assosciated with others I expect town to try to check others associations.

what about that is hard to apprehend for you?

I'll go back and re-read your yesterday Titus push. Although I'm guessing you'll dispute that you were obv!doc in your Titus push like Ranger read to me.

Huh?

Can you clarify where the case has been "agreed upon as bad"? I just took another skim through and didn't see it. Who has agreed that the case is bad, and where did they agree that it was bad?

1. I called the case the least logical RC could pursue.
2. She agreed. Go search her iso for "logic" in this phase and I wager you'll find it. It was a long conversation.

OTOH I don't think I see anything disqualifying from say a Titus-Thor-RC group.

Ignoring today and, well, my entire Titus/Thor adventure? Yeah, i don't either.

If I have your vote for Thor tomorrow I'd rather lynch Cakez since it looks like he might be scum PR.

Don't you mean he's assured scum PR, since you claim to know I'm scum and a Goon?