A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[Mirhawk]

Wow look at all those super scummy things I've said, I must be really bad at being scum!

[Mirhawk]

Pip is just an amazing scum hunter! I'm so surprised he managed to catch all those.

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote

This feels town for mir. Not liking tgr L-1 anymore

[The Pied Piper]

So it turns out that I can't post the ISO map that I spent a few days making because the maximum size of posts was reduced after the tiger attack

What I can do is look at it piecemeal and talk about how Axel approached different slots.

Skybird

=31 ==904 +1340 =1954 ☾ --2500 -2528 -2530 -2930 -2951 =3166 =3168 -==3240 -3332 -=3335 -v3398 -=3487 +-+-3511 -3540 -3586 ✝

Axel largely ignored Skybird on day 1. His first serious mention of her is on page 37 in 904 where he nullreads her, saying that "Skybird hasn't done much of anything" and that he kind of liked Ami's point about her so he might be leaning scum on Skybird instead of being completely null. That post is interesting because every slot except Cerberus' is mentioned.

His townreads are:

Marquis

(for counterclaiming pistachi0n),

itlepip

(for being active but he feels uneasy about the meta argument with

Seniors

),

Tammy

(for enthusiasm).

People he feels okay about:

podoboq

,

Sir Cakes

, Mirhawk (because he doesn't agree with the

Mirhawk

hate)

People he's neutral on:

Mala

(because he liked

Tammy

better in

Tammy

vs

Mala

),

pistachi0n

(miller claim is null and hasn't done much),

Piper

,

Flubber

(strong entrance but meh posting),

Shotty

,

dwlee

(omgus),

Skybird

(hasn't done much of anything),

Spiffeh

(hard to read, posts too many 1-liners)

People he doesn't like:

Dramonic

(less content, worse opinions),

Seniors, Davesaz, Ranger (lurking), Snarky (lurking)

.


So there's this thing where humans are pretty bad at simulating randomness and if you ask someone for a random number between 1 and 10 they're pretty likely to pick 7 and if they don't pick 7 they're also pretty likely to pick 3, and those numbers feel more random than the other numbers because they're not exactly in the middle (5) but they're kind of in the middle of either side, and they're odd numbers and prime.

And when scum produce a readslist, particularly less experienced scum like Axel, they often want to put their buddies "at random" in the readslist, so that it's all smoothed out and their buddies don't stand out. It's why you don't get all the scum on the same wagon as each other all the time but you get them spread apart in 1s and 2s across wagons.

I'd expect 0-1 scum in each of these groups:

[Cerberus] <-- left off the list
[Marquis, itlepip] <-- townreads
[podoboq, Cakes, Mirhawk] <-- townleans
[Mala, Flubber, Shotty, dwlee,

Skybird

] <-- nulls
[dramonic] <-- scumreads

So, Cerb, dram's a bit of a surprise because I've been townleaning him but I'd be surprised if the scumreads were an all town list so I need to think about that some more, and probably someone in the townreads/leans too. If I can't post the ISO maps that I make then I think I'm going to have to try reading the game in order to figure out who in [Marquis, itlepip, podoboq, Cakes, Mirhawk], if anyone. I would be really surprised if Marquis or podoboq were scum, though.

Anyway next he kind of defends Skybird +1340

and that's it for day 1. Other slots he didn't interact with very much on Day 1 were: Cerb, shotty, flubber,

pistachi0n

, podoboq,

Spiffeh

, and

Tammy

. I've noticed that scum like to vary the read they have on their buddies, townreading one and bussing another, but they tend to want to interact with all of their buddies roughly the same amount of

times

and this either goes back to humans being bad at simulating randomness and a subconscious need to even things out, or possibly it could be that players tend to fall into habits and there are players like yosarian who usually ignore their buddies and players like RC who usually bus their buddies and players like mastin who usually don't like to bus their buddies and it's rare to interact a lot with one buddy and not at all with another buddy, so I would expect there to be scum in [cerb, shotty, flubber, podoboq] too, but that's just a list of slots Axel interacted the least with and I might not be setting the cut off at the right place.

Axel spent day 2 bussing skybird starting in --2500. It seems like he saw the writing on the wall for her with Marquis' posting and wanted to position himself to look good after she flipped scum.

I want to point out posts like +-+-3511 where he talks about her like she's scum and town at the same time (green for town, pink for scum):

Cerb, I'm Oscar Jaffee from On the Twentieth Century.

This seems passable as a flavor claim.

But

So IMO that's not a role that can be given to scum without compromising balance to the point of impossibility. The claim strengthens my town read.

So are we going to lynch town, or try to switch it to someone else?

Why do you assume Skybird is telling the truth about it?

Just because of prior town read?

I agree you really can't have a scum "Kingmaker"

,

but I have serious doubts if that's what Skybird really is.

Another notable thing about that post is that he seems to be trying to tie davesaz to Skybird before she flips.

I need to make lunch but I'll spend some time thinking about who else he was positioning himself around and how later!

[Rob14]

Vote Count #4.5:

Mirhawk:

pistachi0n, podoboq, itlepip, Flubbernugget, SirCakez (5)

The Pied Piper:

Dwlee99, dramonic, Mirhawk (3)

Not Voting:

The Pied Piper, Marquis, Malakittens, Cerberus v666, drmyshottyizsik

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

V/LA:

None.

Deadline:

(expired on 2016-05-29 21:40:00)

[The Pied Piper]

Soup is on the stove. So the way I tend to do this is that it's like a venn diagram. One scum's ISO gives me a bunch of slots to look closer at, and another scum's ISO also gives me a (probably different but with some overlap) bunch of slots to look closer at, and then I look at those slots and think about them in relation to the flipped slots and if I can find some slots that look like good bets for scum when approached from several different angles and when looked at in various different lights then yay.

Cerberus v666/millar13

_904

=953 =959 =1749 =2039 ☾ =2535 =2575 -3332 ☾ ==3875 -4297 -4425 ☾

904 sees a new symbol in my ISO maps: _ means "conspicuous absences", the only slot not mentioned in a post that mentions every other slot in the game.

Axel's other interactions with Cerb on day 1 are = interactions which means replying to somebody or chatting with them or disagreeing about mafia theory or just mentioning them, but neither pushing them as scum nor working together with them as town, the null sorts of filler interactions that everybody has with everybody else. These posts aren't significant by themselves and nothing important is said in them; what is significant is the lack of other types of interactions, not until 3332, towards the end of day 2, do we see some other kind of interaction, where he "kinda agrees" with

Seniors

about Cerberus moving down because it "seems like he's sitting back now and following". Axel didn't like Cerberus trying to use dead Ranger's readslist, probably because Axel himself was near the bottom of it.

(I've coloured in the flips and updated the names to make it easier to follow)

Final thing before I go: {

Tammy

, SirCakez, itlepip, Marquis, Cerberus v666, The Pied Piper, dwlee99}
{

Skybird

,

pistachi0n

, podoboq}
{

Spiffeh, davesaz

}
{Malakittens}
{dramonic,

SnarkySnowman

}
{

Axelrod

, drmyshottyizsik}
{Flubbernugget}
{

Friendless Seniors

, Mirhawk}

There's probably some more scum near the bottom of that list, then. (ranger was town, so her reads were genuine and the "0-1 scum per tier" thing won't apply. that only shows up when someone already knows who the scum are. her reads are more likely to be accurate because scum were discrediting them.)

On day 3, Axel produces another readslist (updated names and coloured in flips):

Mod-Confirmed Town:

pistachion

Almost certain Town: Marquis,

davesaz

(based on result), Malakittens (based on result), podoboq (based on strong read)
Leaning Town: drmyshottyizsik, Mirhawk
Undecided: Pied Piper,

Friendless Seniors

, itlepip, Cerberus
Scummiest: Dramonic, SirCakez, Flubbernugget, Dwlee99

I would, again expect about 0-1 scum per tier.

In 4425 he attacks Cerb and

Seniors

in the same post, saying Cerb is willing to lynch anyone who isn't him and that

Seniors

is attacking anyone who votes for them (but that he's not crosschecking that fact).


Skybird had 4 interactions with axel (up to the point where i made that iso map of her which was towards the end of day 2).

Axelrod

+24 -?465 -636 ☾ -=2567

She also had 4 interactions with Cerb.

Cerberus v666/millar13

+975 +=1752 +1753 ☾ =2649

Other living slots she didn't interact much with were dram, dwlee, us, mala, flubber, mirhawk, podoboq, shotty.
ranger's scumreads: mirhawk, flubber, shotty, dram

crossover: shotty (3), flubber (3), cerb (2), podoboq (2), mirhawk (2), dramonic (2).


This would make Cerb a priority for ISO mapping but if I can't post the maps that I make then that's kind of demotivating because it's a lot of work but i'm a bit lost without it. So instead Cerb just goes onto the list of people to pay closer attention to when I reread the game.

My soup is ready in 4 minutes but I'm not done thinking about who Axel interacted with and how. I might not be able to come back to this today but I should have some time tomorrow morning.

[podoboq]

So it turns out that I can't post the ISO map that I spent a few days making because the maximum size of posts was reduced after the tiger attack

The level of work you put in is flabbergasting, and I wouldn't ask you to do more, but if you want to ISO map and the comment is too big to post, is it possible to create it in a Google Doc and provide the link in your comment instead? Just a thought.

[The Pied Piper]

I'd probably post it in something like pastebin.com, but I need to ask if it's allowed or not; many mods don't allow outside links to game related content. I can copy paste the code into the reply box and hit preview and see it and from there I can follow the links in a new tab, and it can even be saved as a draft and all that, it just can't be posted without getting a mysql error. I ran into the same error when trying to post the final mod scenes for a game I just finished modding; it was irritating.

I could also take a screenshot of the preview screen but it is better if the links are clickable, to be able to look for patterns on your own and then follow a link or two to see where they go.

@Mod: may I put a bunch of post tags in a site like pastebin.com similar to the one in 3114 and link to it?

[Dwlee99]

Wow so TPP.comes in says "0-1 scum.per level" and theb doesnt provide aby analysis of that. So townie!

[Cerberus v666]

Did you read her entire post? They gave a well reasoned explanation for why they expect that distribution. It could be wrong, but it makes sense.

[Dwlee99]

That isnt what Im talking about. Im talking about them saying that and then not even saying who the scum in the group is.

[drmyshottyizsik]

That isnt what Im talking about. Im talking about them saying that and then not even saying who the scum in the group is.

I don't like giw solid and open you expect or want everyone's reads to be

[The Pied Piper]

Not everyone's. Just ours.

[SirCakez]

There's the old Piper!
A question - do you think Cerb's interactions with Axel make him more likely scum?

[drmyshottyizsik]

That isnt what Im talking about. Im talking about them saying that and then not even saying who the scum in the group is.

I don't like giw solid and open you expect or want everyone's reads to be

ebwip how

[Dwlee99]

That isnt what Im talking about. Im talking about them saying that and then not even saying who the scum in the group is.

I don't like giw solid and open you expect or want everyone's reads to be

I'm not saying I need solid reads given. A town mindset when doing that would be saying "I think there is 0-1 scum in this group, if there is scum in this group I think it is within {person 1, 2, 3} because I'm townreading {person 4, 5, 6}
They did "I think there is 0-1 scum in the group" without analyzing what that means and having that affect their reads.

[The Pied Piper]

There's the old Piper!
A question - do you think Cerb's interactions with Axel make him more likely scum?

I think Axel's and Skybird's interactions with Cerb make Cerb more likely to be scum. Rereading Cerb's posts is higher on my todo list as a result.

@dwlee would you prefer me to do all of my thinking out loud in my hydra PT and only post in public when my thoughts are all neatly wrapped up and packaged and tied with a bow?

A town mindset when doing that would be saying "I think there is 0-1 scum in this group, if there is scum in this group I think it is within {person 1, 2, 3} because I'm townreading {person 4, 5, 6}
They did "I think there is 0-1 scum in the group" without analyzing what that means and having that affect their reads.

So,

Cerb

,

dram

's a bit of a surprise because I've been townleaning him but I'd be surprised if the scumreads were an all town list so I need to think about that some more, and probably someone in the townreads/leans too. If I can't post the ISO maps that I make then I think I'm going to have to try reading the game in order to figure out who in [Marquis,

itlepip

, podoboq,

Cakes, Mirhawk

], if anyone. I would be really surprised if Marquis or podoboq were scum, though.

crossover: shotty (3), flubber (3), cerb (2), podoboq (2), mirhawk (2), dramonic (2).

I'm not done thinking

When people accuse you of not reading our posts, this is what they mean.

[Flubbernugget]

Because they were incredibly active yesterday, but have vanished today.

You are scum

[Dwlee99]

Yo tpp you just said the lists of people not your opinion

[The Pied Piper]

If I post a list of people and say that

I think

scum

is more

likely

to be in that list (particularly the areas where there's

crossover

between the different ways i'm approaching the game), that is an

opinion

.

So,

Cerb

,

dram

's

a bit of a surprise because I've been

townleaning

him

but I'd be surprised if the scumreads were an all town list so I need to think about that some more, and probably someone in the townreads/leans too. If I can't post the ISO maps that I make then I think I'm going to have to try reading the game in order to figure out who in [Marquis,

itlepip

, podoboq,

Cakes, Mirhawk

], if anyone.

I would be really surprised if Marquis or podoboq were scum, though.

I know that reading isn't your strongsuit, but...

[The Pied Piper]

Those are five names that I'm looking more closely at because I expect there to be a larger than usual amount of scum in the pool of [cerb, dram, marquis, itlepip, podoboq, cakes, mirhawk] but I took Marquis and podobq out because I think they're town, leaving [cerb, dram, itlepip, cakes, mirhawk], and then i went further and said probably only one scum in [itlepip, cakes, mirhawk], but I have to do more reading because I was townreading that group before this.

[The Pied Piper]

I'd look at shotty a bit more as well because of all those crossovers but talah was pretty town.

[pistachi0n]

unvote

This feels town for mir. Not liking tgr L-1 anymore

Why the unvote? You've never seen scum be defensive?

[Dwlee99]

Ok well scratch my last point doesnt change that tpp is scum

[drmyshottyizsik]

unvote

This feels town for mir. Not liking tgr L-1 anymore

Why the unvote? You've never seen scum be defensive?

Yes, but I've always seen town get scared, L-1 means I may not get the time I need to discern what's what.