New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[SirCakez]

Votecount 1.4

Machu Pichu in Peru!

Ircher (3) - TehBrawlGuy, Egg, zakk
MagnaOfIllusion (3) - heuristically_alone, Persivul, Lowell
Copper223 (2) - Killthestory, Nosferatu
SethYazura (2) - copper223, Ircher
TehBrawlGuy (2) - projectmatt, MagnaOfIllusion
drmyshottyiszik (2) - EspeciallyTheLies, Titus
Killthestory (1) - I Am Innocent
Titus (1) - drmyshottyiszik

Not voting (5) - alban, cytheflyguy, Aneninen, Desmond_13, SethYazura

With 21 alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2016-06-02 14:10:00) remain until day end

MagnaOfIllusion is V/LA until May 23.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

besides titus being titus you're still my strongest scumread. just trying to sort her out loud for me more than anything else.

p-edit: BUMPS!!@

[drmyshottyizsik]

Titus - i feel like shotty really wants to attack me but knows it will look terrible if he goes too hard. I don't know if that's scum trying not to rock the boat or town being realistic though. I've done that myself as both.

p-edit: no it helps in ISO for continuity.

It's not that I'm afraid how it will look, it is that I know I will tunnel you and I want to have an even head if I ever do that.

Yeah, speaking as the queen of tunnels myself, this looks like shit. You don't avoid sorting people out of fearing you'll tunnel.

Again why the fuck are you pushing so hard for me to attack ETL?

Loaded. I'm wanting you to scumhunt. To sort ETL. You don't have to attack to get there.

You aren't tell me to scum hunt, I was doing that. You were saying scum hunt the people I want you to scum hunt otherwise you are scum.

[Titus]

she wants to see my reaction.

By forcing action on my part?

That's part of it. But also I *think* I understand why she thinks you not attacking me is scummy only because she knows how I get, but you don't so I don't know why she thinks you're avoiding it on that basis.

More like you're obvtown and scum don't want to be seen sorting obvtown when there's so much scum so far. Your playstyle has nothing to do with it even though he'd likely know it as scum.

[copper223]

Well given that half the wagon on Ircher was driven by calling him scum for badly mangling statistics I can’t see this as valid at all. Why not anyone else. Brawl, who you are floating as Town, is just as guilty as Nos in my mind.

Nos started the game focusing on that aspect, which is a key difference.

Put yourself in the shoes of scumhunter extraordinare Nostradamus who has a few pages to sift through and look for alignments, does pursuing Ircher's understanding of statistics seem like a priority to you? On the other hand scum extraordinaire Nostradamus likely wants to look for crumbs, determine which players may be dangerous for him and look to be active while doing nothing, especially if he can join a ready made wagon from Titus, he also appears to be debating the Ircher issues without really giving a read about it.

I choose the names out of the list at random cause I wanted to increase the pressure on Seth .

@ETL
Real talk lady, what makes you think Seth is newb-town.

@Seth
If you are hard claiming SK we can use you as a vig and give you brownie points when we win, how about it?

[Titus]

Titus - i feel like shotty really wants to attack me but knows it will look terrible if he goes too hard. I don't know if that's scum trying not to rock the boat or town being realistic though. I've done that myself as both.

p-edit: no it helps in ISO for continuity.

It's not that I'm afraid how it will look, it is that I know I will tunnel you and I want to have an even head if I ever do that.

Yeah, speaking as the queen of tunnels myself, this looks like shit. You don't avoid sorting people out of fearing you'll tunnel.

Again why the fuck are you pushing so hard for me to attack ETL?

Loaded. I'm wanting you to scumhunt. To sort ETL. You don't have to attack to get there.

You aren't tell me to scum hunt, I was doing that. You were saying scum hunt the people I want you to scum hunt otherwise you are scum.

No. You haven't been. Every conclusion is null minus Copper/Ircher from RVS.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Titus - i feel like shotty really wants to attack me but knows it will look terrible if he goes too hard. I don't know if that's scum trying not to rock the boat or town being realistic though. I've done that myself as both.

p-edit: no it helps in ISO for continuity.

It's not that I'm afraid how it will look, it is that I know I will tunnel you and I want to have an even head if I ever do that.

Yeah, speaking as the queen of tunnels myself, this looks like shit. You don't avoid sorting people out of fearing you'll tunnel.

Again why the fuck are you pushing so hard for me to attack ETL?

You can say it isn't scum hunting and try and discredit me, but it won't work. Ircher wasn't my RVS vote,
Loaded. I'm wanting you to scumhunt. To sort ETL. You don't have to attack to get there.

You aren't tell me to scum hunt, I was doing that. You were saying scum hunt the people I want you to scum hunt otherwise you are scum.

No. You haven't been. Every conclusion is null minus Copper/Ircher from RVS.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Analysis of what happened. If you don't think Zakk was doing anything, we interpret things differently. I think every post, every word, everything has meaning. I don't see Zakk sheeping. He's pushing too hard to be a sheep. The last is the answer. I've been told I shoot down ideas though. I was never reaching Zakk scum based on his opening without Copper scum but I've been told that I am very dickish in approaching things that way. So I tried saying it another way.

Do you have experience with zakk that supports this? I understand your point but you know very well that playstyle tends to drive behavior not alignment. I can think of a number of aggressive styled players who would come out swinging in RVS. I’m sure you can too. I’ve got zach very Null right now.

The question seems clearly rhetorical to me.

No, it isn’t. Why do you think it is? Personally I absolutely want that answer from zakk.

Nos started the game focusing on that aspect, which is a key difference.

Put yourself in the shoes of scumhunter extraordinare Nostradamus who has a few pages to sift through and look for alignments, does pursuing Ircher's understanding of statistics seem like a priority to you? On the other hand scum extraordinaire Nostradamus likely wants to look for crumbs, determine which players may be dangerous for him and look to be active while doing nothing, especially if he can join a ready made wagon from Titus, he also appears to be debating the Ircher issues without really giving a read about it.

Um so did Brawlguy (102). So did Killthestory (96). Now I grant you that there is only 2 pages of play for them as opposed to three for Nos. I just don’t see why you are ignoring those two to look at Nos.

Also – do you have some experience with Nos that says scum-hunter beast? I don’t.

[copper223]

@Magma
My fellow man, tis a figure of speech, though I'm sure Nostradamus truly is a beast scum hunter when he gets a town PM.

You are again comparing posts that are superficially similar in the wording but appear to come from completely different mindsets, 102 and 104 are players (BGT and KTS) saying idgaf about statistics, back to the real game please, Nosferatu took the time to examine what Ircher wrote and comment on his

ability

to do so correctly, now there are reasons why town Nos would do so as well but it is less likely compared to scum Nos doing the same thing hence the vote on him in particular.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

@ETL
Real talk lady, what makes you think Seth is newb-town.

who the fuck is seth?

[Persivul]

SethYazura, one of the players in the game.

[Persivul]

I'm wondering how people have opinions on Nos when she's said maybe 15 words.

[copper223]

@ETL
What outrageous language!

I am partially at fault here cause that was meant to be addressed to lowell's 202.

[alban]

Already 300+ messages?! This is way too much posting. I will need time to go through it.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

SethYazura, one of the players in the game.

well i didn't know that because the playerlist is too long.

[Egg]

Projectmatt, I didn't get that impression, but pressure isn't a bad thing so I'll let it roll for now.

Copper, what is your read on projectmatt? Why don't you think the more serious Ircher votes (drmy and myself mostly) ended RVS as opposed to Titus' vote on you? Why do you think scum are less likely than town to come up with the ".5%" comment? I feel like a lot of scum come off more confident in their reads because the whole point is to present them in a persuasive manner rather than actually be right. I was kind of thinking that when I asked you why Ircher seemed more confident to you. I'm not sure if Ircher would be confident scum or not though so I'm not sure if it's a strong point or a null one. I definitely don't see it as a town tell though so I'm curious to hear your side

Seth could be scum for the Page 7 RVS vote on the wagon with the most momentum. If Copper is scum, the vote is null. The "this is getting stupid" comment after being voted is iffy too. Yikes, and the wanting everyone else to scumhunt for him. Is this my third scum found?

Seth, this is game theory more than anything, but the whole point about scum and any SK not wanting to lynch each other is one way to look at it, but after 8 years of playing this game, I've seen it to be just plain wrong. If you can eliminate the chance of being NK'd as scum, you can afford to play the towniest day game possible and cruise to victory. As scum or SK, you ALWAYS want NKing roles and factions dead. Oh, and I agree with Copper that if you claim SK, we could use you as a vig.

Thebrawl's response to projectmatt was pretty much what I expected and the point about Ircher wanting to defend against six cases over scumhunting makes perfect sense. It looks like a load of busywork on Ircher's part. I think I'm considering Thebrawl a weak town read for now.

Drmy, that scum team guess is...different? Do you really think we started off wagoning two scum with a third being the one to start one of those wagons? And why is zakk third party?

This really reads as a SK claim.

And your post really reads as scum who honestly thinks they have the SK pegged. Can you tell me why you'd rather lynch SK than mafia?

I'm trying to figure out what to make of Persivul's asking for normal ratios for a large. Either he is town who is genuinely curious or he's scum who is either looking for town points or wondering about the number of scum teams. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Lowell, I can usually follow your reasoning for your reads better than a lot of people can, but your thoughts are so far off from my own here. Can you give 2-3 sentences to explain your reads on Titus, Persivul, Thebrawl, and Seth? Also, have you played with Titus before?

ETL, I hope you'll explain the tell after people with enough time to do so themselves have had enough opportunity.

Titus, why do you have an issue with drmy keeping his reasoning to himself, but apparently not ETL doing the same with her meta point? As I read more, I see you answered this, but I think it's pretty clear drmy was just taking a shot at ETL with that post.

Magna, you said you were trying to read ETL with that question. What did you decide?

I don't understand this Magna wagon. Or the ETL/drmy/Titus arguement. All three look pretty town.

[Egg]

Projectmatt, I didn't get that impression, but pressure isn't a bad thing so I'll let it roll for now.

Copper, what is your read on projectmatt? Why don't you think the more serious Ircher votes (drmy and myself mostly) ended RVS as opposed to Titus' vote on you? Why do you think scum are less likely than town to come up with the ".5%" comment? I feel like a lot of scum come off more confident in their reads because the whole point is to present them in a persuasive manner rather than actually be right. I was kind of thinking that when I asked you why Ircher seemed more confident to you. I'm not sure if Ircher would be confident scum or not though so I'm not sure if it's a strong point or a null one. I definitely don't see it as a town tell though so I'm curious to hear your side

Seth could be scum for the Page 7 RVS vote on the wagon with the most momentum. If Copper is scum, the vote is null. The "this is getting stupid" comment after being voted is iffy too. Yikes, and the wanting everyone else to scumhunt for him. Is this my third scum found?

Seth, this is game theory more than anything, but the whole point about scum and any SK not wanting to lynch each other is one way to look at it, but after 8 years of playing this game, I've seen it to be just plain wrong. If you can eliminate the chance of being NK'd as scum, you can afford to play the towniest day game possible and cruise to victory. As scum or SK, you ALWAYS want NKing roles and factions dead. Oh, and I agree with Copper that if you claim SK, we could use you as a vig.

Thebrawl's response to projectmatt was pretty much what I expected and the point about Ircher wanting to defend against six cases over scumhunting makes perfect sense. It looks like a load of busywork on Ircher's part. I think I'm considering Thebrawl a weak town read for now.

Drmy, that scum team guess is...different? Do you really think we started off wagoning two scum with a third being the one to start one of those wagons? And why is zakk third party?

This really reads as a SK claim.

And your post really reads as scum who honestly thinks they have the SK pegged. Can you tell me why you'd rather lynch SK than mafia?

I'm trying to figure out what to make of Persivul's asking for normal ratios for a large. Either he is town who is genuinely curious or he's scum who is either looking for town points or wondering about the number of scum teams. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Lowell, I can usually follow your reasoning for your reads better than a lot of people can, but your thoughts are so far off from my own here. Can you give 2-3 sentences to explain your reads on Titus, Persivul, Thebrawl, and Seth? Also, have you played with Titus before?

ETL, I hope you'll explain the tell after people with enough time to do so themselves have had enough opportunity.

Titus, why do you have an issue with drmy keeping his reasoning to himself, but apparently not ETL doing the same with her meta point? As I read more, I see you answered this, but I think it's pretty clear drmy was just taking a shot at ETL with that post.

Magna, you said you were trying to read ETL with that question. What did you decide?

I don't understand this Magna wagon. Or the ETL/drmy/Titus arguement. All three look pretty town.

[projectmatt]

Also townvibes from ETL, lessening townvibes from titus.

Would you share what is giving you lessening townvibes from Titus? I'm asking because something in particular made me start to scumread him slightly, and I'm curious if we have the same mindset here.

I'm currently rejecting the Ircher wagon primarily because I actually read his desperation as town. The over-defensive, "give me one good reason why I'm mafia!" reminds me fondly of the way that I/a lot of new players tend to play when they first joined the site. It seems like he's suffering from a fair amount of over-confidence, but that confidence actually inclines me to think that he's town.

The Copper wagon is also very weak.

EspeciallytheLies became a pretty strong town-read during the last few pages.

Also, TehBrawlGuy, in regards to #171, your defense doesn't seem strong because it doesn't matter whether or not they were both viable wagons. My point was that they were both arguing, and you basically said "yeah, both of them seem pretty bad". It seemed like you didn't want to take a side so that you could potentially vote either one if either became viable.

I'm going to wait to cast my vote, as I don't feel very comfortable with any of the wagons.

[copper223]

Copper, what is your read on projectmatt? Why don't you think the more serious Ircher votes (drmy and myself mostly) ended RVS as opposed to Titus' vote on you? Why do you think scum are less likely than town to come up with the ".5%" comment? I feel like a lot of scum come off more confident in their reads because the whole point is to present them in a persuasive manner rather than actually be right. I was kind of thinking that when I asked you why Ircher seemed more confident to you. I'm not sure if Ircher would be confident scum or not though so I'm not sure if it's a strong point or a null one. I definitely don't see it as a town tell though so I'm curious to hear your side

I am leaning town on PM.

Shotty's read + fake vig. shot and the wagon that formed around it I found more of an extension of RVS, plus (and this is my bad and I'm actively trying to fix it) I find it hard to take Shotty seriously, Titus announced she was done with RVS which made it clear to all that phase of the game was over which makes it the best closing point for me.

What's persuasive about saying you have a 99.5% scumread on someone at the start of d1? That's optimistic even with a guilty check in an open setup, so realistically and in an unbiased state (which is mostly where you are at as scum) you are not going to say something so dumb, if you are you are doing so with a purpose in mind and this is where you went with your interpretation if I'm reading correctly between the lines, as town however bias can do that to you and I've seen it happen often and that was my initial reaction.

I have to say though I am coming around on scumreading Ircher as well, I did not appreciate his turn around vote on me and the way he decided Seth had to be claiming SK (and did not just screw up as scum) may be a tell that he knows Seth is not part of the scumteam.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Copper, what is your read on projectmatt? Why don't you think the more serious Ircher votes (drmy and myself mostly) ended RVS as opposed to Titus' vote on you? Why do you think scum are less likely than town to come up with the ".5%" comment? I feel like a lot of scum come off more confident in their reads because the whole point is to present them in a persuasive manner rather than actually be right. I was kind of thinking that when I asked you why Ircher seemed more confident to you. I'm not sure if Ircher would be confident scum or not though so I'm not sure if it's a strong point or a null one. I definitely don't see it as a town tell though so I'm curious to hear your side

I am leaning town on PM.

Shotty's read + fake vig. shot and the wagon that formed around it I found more of an extension of RVS, plus (and this is my bad and I'm actively trying to fix it) I find it hard to take Shotty seriously, Titus announced she was done with RVS which made it clear to all that phase of the game was over which makes it the best closing point for me.

What's persuasive about saying you have a 99.5% scumread on someone at the start of d1? That's optimistic even with a guilty check in an open setup, so realistically and in an unbiased state (which is mostly where you are at as scum) you are not going to say something so dumb, if you are you are doing so with a purpose in mind and this is where you went with your interpretation if I'm reading correctly between the lines, as town however bias can do that to you and I've seen it happen often and that was my initial reaction.

I have to say though I am coming around on scumreading Ircher as well, I did not appreciate his turn around vote on me and the way he decided Seth had to be claiming SK (and did not just screw up as scum) may be a tell that he knows Seth is not part of the scumteam.

I'm telling you Ircher is scum. I don't typically have this strong of reads off the bat(maybe that's the "tell"), but I as certain as can be with out having a confirmed guilty at this point. With this big of a game though I think we need to watch how Ircher act when we take the pressure off of him. I don't like Titus right now and I would like to see a lot of pressure put on him.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

why don't you explain your motives here, shotty.

explain it to me.

Nah I think I'll be selfish and keep my reasons to myself.

ok so, i get the joke and all, but this should have been followed up with a real response, and i haven't gotten one, and it's an important question for me. what was the motive behind criticizing my scumhunting methods?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'm going to wait to cast my vote, as I don't feel very comfortable with any of the wagons.

i didn't want you to be scum matt. but you are.

[Egg]

Copper, saying you have extreme certainty in a read is clearly expressing confidence. To be fair though, drmy is doing the same with Ircher and I doubt they are both scum so maybe it's null. But to answer your question more completely if you're still wondering, people are more likely to sheep someone who is confident than someone who isn't sure of themself. Therefore, yeah, conveying confidence is persuasive. Think back to any vote you've ever sheeped. Was the person confident? My guess is most of the time, yes. I agree that it's a heavily exaggarated statement from a statistics point of view, but it absolutely displays confidence. I'd go as far as to call it overconfidence.

And yeah, if Ircher is scum, I'd be shocked to find out Seth is his buddy after that SK accusation.

[cytheflyguy]

I got to page 11 and I got busy lol. I'll try to finish everything in a bit

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Copper, saying you have extreme certainty in a read is clearly expressing confidence. To be fair though, drmy is doing the same with Ircher and I doubt they are both scum so maybe it's null. But to answer your question more completely if you're still wondering, people are more likely to sheep someone who is confident than someone who isn't sure of themself. Therefore, yeah, conveying confidence is persuasive. Think back to any vote you've ever sheeped. Was the person confident? My guess is most of the time, yes. I agree that it's a heavily exaggarated statement from a statistics point of view, but it absolutely displays confidence. I'd go as far as to call it overconfidence.

And yeah, if Ircher is scum, I'd be shocked to find out Seth is his buddy after that SK accusation.

actually i think copper and shotty may both be scum and if multiball, same team. is multiball allowed in normals? i dont even know, it's been about a year maybe since i played a normal.