New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[drmyshottyizsik]

I put two k's but my phone autocorrected I'm sorry.

[Lowell]

Jesus could this day end.

Where do your reads stand now that you've mostly caught up? Strongest scumreads/strongest townreads?

Didn't I just do this? End this thing.

[Killthestory]

b

[Persivul]

ALSO: if you were town you probably wouldn't have bothered to check the links
because hypothetical town-you would know that no matter what the links held, they wouldn't be relevant if it was related to me thinking you are scum.

That is possibly the furthest reach I've heard in my time on this site.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Jesus could this day end.

Where do your reads stand now that you've mostly caught up? Strongest scumreads/strongest townreads?

Didn't I just do this? End this thing.

No. You didn't. I'm interested in your updated reads. is there any reason you refuse to give them?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

ALSO: if you were town you probably wouldn't have bothered to check the links
because hypothetical town-you would know that no matter what the links held, they wouldn't be relevant if it was related to me thinking you are scum.

That is possibly the furthest reach I've heard in my time on this site.

actually it's an excellent point.

[Lowell]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

[Killthestory]

bodies on top of bodies

oh man all hell broke loose, you killed my cousin back in 94', fuc yo truce

[Lowell]

Jesus could this day end.

Where do your reads stand now that you've mostly caught up? Strongest scumreads/strongest townreads?

Didn't I just do this? End this thing.

No. You didn't. I'm interested in your updated reads. is there any reason you refuse to give them?

Are you serious? Is this the molehill you want to turn into a mountain? I've been fine. To the extent I have reads I've been giving them clearly. This game is busy enough, move on.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Jesus could this day end.

Where do your reads stand now that you've mostly caught up? Strongest scumreads/strongest townreads?

Didn't I just do this? End this thing.

No. You didn't. I'm interested in your updated reads. is there any reason you refuse to give them?

Are you serious? Is this the molehill you want to turn into a mountain? I've been fine. To the extent I have reads I've been giving them clearly. This game is busy enough, move on.

I'm not going to go through your ISO and track down your individual reads dude. I'm asking a simple question. what is your problem? just answer it and be done.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I'm with ETL on this. It's not like we need a full list on 20 people, but knowing where you stand wrt leading wagons is a big deal.

[zakk]

I put two k's but my phone autocorrected I'm sorry.

lol its fine i really don't care

[zakk]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

No.

[Nahdia]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

this is a weird post.

[Nahdia]

if there's an alignment cop i request they check Lowell.

[zakk]

ALSO: if you were town you probably wouldn't have bothered to check the links
because hypothetical town-you would know that no matter what the links held, they wouldn't be relevant if it was related to me thinking you are scum.

That is possibly the furthest reach I've heard in my time on this site.

actually it's an excellent point.

i love when things finally start making sense to me and i start making great points and even people i've been trying to lynch start sucking up to me

[zakk]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

this is a weird post.

if there's an alignment cop i request they check Lowell.

i thought the same. looks like Lazytown to me, which is why i answered it succinctly instead of overanalyzing it

don't know how Lowell-scum plays, but to me this looks more like a player trying to get back into the game mentally than someone trying to throw shade, bc 1. way too obvious in a short iso 2. easy to call out, like you just did, and 3. i assume lowell is smarter than that

and overthinking THAT would be overanalyzing. so he gets a detached townread for now.

[zakk]

wait i posted too soon. i thought the same, that it was weird, but i forgot i quoted 2 posts.

so:
stop telling hypothetical cops what to do, they are gonna inspect whoever they damn well please


also, you're one to talk, with regards to coming in and making off-sounding posts.
why don't you tell me what you think about pers/magnus and the weird titus/ETL/me love/hate triangle.

[cytheflyguy]

Is zakk scum, btw? I'm really asking. bc damn I do not know.

This seems pretty sus imo.

[projectmatt]

Page 50:
Projectmatt, do you think scum is pushing Copper or do you just disagree with the points being made?

If I recall correctly, the majority of people who attacked Copper are actually people who I townread. I believe that the points made against Copper were bad, but thankfully his wagon seems to now be a non-starter.

Off the top of my head, the read walls as she was catching up. I don't really see a scum motive for that, when she's very clearly not playing for townpoints in every other post. The fact that they hardly changed is indicative of a real reads list to me, as I think she if she were faking it, she would have been more apt to change her "reads" more.

@

Projectmatt

– I’d love to hear you response to this comment. I really would.

It's bad logic. I actually think his logic is very silly, and I generally find unwavering confidence in reads to be a bad thing. That said though, I'm not looking up to TehBrawlGuy as the pinnacle of good logic/agreement. I also don't think bad logic is inherently scum.

Page 50 – 52

Three whole minutes to back away from his twice strongly stated Brawl Town read. Brawl flips scum and Matt should be first up against the wall following him.

Well, that's a disappointing accusation. It's also really weird and makes me feel like you're intentionally misrepping me. I said that I understood why Titus disliked a post, but I also said that I didn't agree with him. My townread on TBG is still the same.

I'm a stubborn player, so I'm stubbornly staying on the Anen wagon. However, it looks like I might have to compromise and go for my other scum read (Persivul), since he's a close second on my list. I'll see if that is the best option after I get off work tomorrow.

I still really don't understand the Brawl wagon. Can someone please explain to me their case on him?

[Titus]

Spoiler: For Matt

Why do you feel that? It's the exact opposite of how I feel about him. Which posts felt really genuine?

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

I've lost the thread. What felt like Scum-vs-Scum?

The initial stats discussion between Ircher and Shotty. It felt like artificial, forced conflict rather than genuine. Their interactions still feel off to me.

I am just going to be on the biggest of TBG Copper and Shotty. I like all three wagons. Normally that doesn't happen.

I dislike this a lot. Reads as Scum who wants to avoid spearheading one particular lynch to me. The townie version of this post is like "I'll support XXX, YYY, and ZZZ wagons. I think YYY wagon is the best right now though".

Are you hoping that a Titus-wagon will suddenly gain momentum?

Not particularly, no. I scumread him but he's not in my top 3, as you can see in the reads list I posted. Additionally, a lot of my read on him is relative to Ircher/Shotty. Scumflips from either of them would make me more sure on Titus, and less if they're Town. I'd rather see them die first - they're scummy on their own and help me read Titus.

I could've just said nothing and been able to jump on them if I wanted to. I did want to potentially vote either of them down the line. I thought it read like SvS. I still think it reads like SvS. No shit I'm going to want to vote people I think could be Scum.

Didn’t you just knock Titus in 516 as scummy for leaving her options open to jump to different lynches? Because I read this response as being exactly what you are damning Titus for.

Why do you think the early exchange is Scum versus scum? Please elaborate.

No, you misunderstand me. I don't think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support". I think it's scummy to say "here are the three lynches I support, I'll be on whatever's biggest" rather than "here are the three lynches I support, and I currently prefer _____ Lynch". The former says to me that you don't have any actual scumreads, because if you did, one would naturally be the most appealing for some reason.

The whole "you're dead" thing and the stats discussion coming off each other are both pretty dumb, and the stats discussion comes from nowhere. It reads to me like they wanted to distance early D1, and after the daykill thing started to lose steam they had to come up with something else, and that spawned the stats argument. Go read the first 5 pages and tell me that Ircher/Shotty don't fit the description of two scum who decided on a hard distance gambit.

Also, I doubt scum-Ircher would go on with those hard-to read ISOs after the general dislike he got from almost everyone because of them.

What do you all think of this?

I disagree. I think if he had stopped after we said it wasn't going to give him townpoints, it would have been a clear indication he was only doing it for townpoints.

Like this post. Brawl seems to be able to defend himself well, and the reads he has aren't really far-fetched imo. When I factor in the possibility for biased opinions, his posts seem fine.

@Ircher - Let's walk this through Ircher. That post is scum posting. Scum love to hedge and hawww. Second, everyone is biased. We all have cognitive biases. The key to scumhunting from my point of view is finding out if these biases make sense and tracking a train of thought because I don't do as well with emotionally reading players.

Paragraph 1 - "Ircher or Shotty is scum. There's something "weird" between them." He's doubtcasting your slot here while leaving open a bus on Shotty. That's why these dual reads "there's something off here" without doing anything to resolve them are 100% pro scum.
Paragraph 2 - "I don't want to push Titus, but I'd gladly jump on her if she gained momentum." It's consistent. He's practically yelling at us that he'll never make a decision or push anything. He'll just have his "gut" reads and do nothing considering gut can't really be proven false unless just ridiculous to have pairings together.
Paragraph 3 - He's playing semantics here at best, but he's painting attempts at town cohesion scummy but lurking as a protown manuever.
Paragraph 4 - More doubtcasting Ircher and dismissing common sense townpoints as wifom.

If someone tells you at the outset that they have zero desire to push lynches, just sets up categories for save voting, and discourages townreads; quite often, that player is scum.

@Egg, Given how I feel about Zakk, I have little desire to lynch ETL either.

As for TBG, his posts are all hollow and ignore things he should be thinking about. ETL was right. His start was all gut. He technically starts to provide reasons later but they aren't fleshed out or followed up on. His reads make zero sense whatsoever in his readwall. He was vote parked on Ircher for quite awhile. He moved to HA at the same time as the pressure and doesn't discuss his own wagon.

Right now, I want a scum lynch but I feel mostly only scum are posting.

I moved to HA with the pressure because there was a good case on him posted, which prompted me to ISO him and see that his ISO was shit. I don't go around randomly ISOing low-content players usually. Voting someone because a case was posted on them is pretty standard.

Why the hell would I comment on my own wagon? FMPoV, it's a wagon on town. I'd rather discuss wagons on potential Scum. If I get you off of me, but you just ML someone else, I don't gain anything.

Reads updates:
Nahdia's first posts were really good, but the whole trying to be cute and lack of any explanation on the switch to copper has me confused - lean town
The points made against KTS are valid and I don't read his tone the same as I used to. He reads to me as intentionally obstinate as a meta-gambit which is inherently null. (also AntiTown, but null)
No update on Heur. His posts since my vote don't have anything substantial in them to sway me one way or the other.

These look fabricated as hell –

No reason to say Nahdia’s posts were really good. Sorry, there isn’t. They are at best contentless lists with no way to discern the whys and wherefores of the read. There hasn’t been a bit of explanation in any of her posts so why only the move to Copper confused him puzzles the heck out of me.

The Kill read his is a complete no-read. He acknowledges that the thinks points made against kill are valid (and solidifies his Town read on Expedience for pushing Kill) but says that kill’s playstyle is aggressively null. If the points that kill as scum are good why is he landing on null for the Kill read. Or more precisely – why voice it at all when it is just a no-conclusion?

He’s voting Heur so how are Heur’s posts not “swaying him”? He’s already gotten a scum read as evidenced by his vote. If Heurs’ posts were not Town convincing he logically should have said something like “Heur continues to post nothing Town oriented at all so my scum read is well placed”. But instead he posts this which reads as “I’m not updating my read so I am waiting to be swayed by Heur to either Town or Scum”

I voiced my read on Kill because I had a prior Town read on him based on tone. Going from Town to Null is an important shift. The points were enough to shift me from a town read to a null read. Kill is intentionally playing hard to read, which is shitty, but as long as he's doing that I'll probably have him at solid null.

Huer's recent posts were all null. Hence, nothing in them swayed me from liking my huer vote. It is a no update in my read. I don't know why you seem to think I'm waiting to be swayed to town or scum on him - I'm pretty clearly reading him scum. I was waiting to be swayed from "likely scum" to "def scum" or "null". He's got jack all for content, so as much as I think what he has is shit and pretty scummy, my read on him is still very malleable due to the amount of content it's based on.

This post also feels genuine to me fyi.

@Ircher, Come on answer me as to why that post "feels genuine"? Look at the motivations at the time it as posting.

To understand that post, you also have to look back at his vote on HA. As the wagon on him forms, TBG is nowhere to be seen. When he comes back, he sheeps a case saying it is good. (The case isn't good but we'll be giving that the benefit of the doubt for this argument.) He's saying he doesn't go ISOing weaker players. He's framing the argument as unreasonable rather than addressing the concerns. My concern is that his "reads" were not there and made no sense. That's precisely what he voted HA for. Yet, he doesn't actually defend or actually give any sort of read.

He then later OMGUSes Seth for sheeping a case onto his wagon when Seth was wagoned. That's exactly what TBG did. The hypocricsy there isn't genuine at all.

The latter paragraph TBG is deliberately excusing himself from ever reading Kill the story. If I felt a player was obfuscating their read deliberately, my first thought is why.

@Titus
Maybe the problem lies in the fact I often don't fact-check posts. What I read, I generally try to take at face value.

Pedit: Suits me Shotty. I got a 5 day V/LA coming up; I cant just stay on the Shitty wagon when no one's willing to join. There's more than 1 scum fyi.

Now catching up with the rest.

[copper223]

@ETL
Scum to null.

There's a decent chance Anen slipped when he paid too much attention to my comment to Persivul (when Persivul claimed it was bad that ETL/Titus started the game working together and I asked him, what if they are both town?) and Anen's reply (you make a good point but Persi. has done something unrelated that I find townie so I'm going to ignore it) seems like a cautious buddy defense.

Magma is a hard read because of OMGUS but if scum is aligned close to the block Titus is proposing he is more likely to be town here and if he is better at reading LHF's than me and Seth/Ircher are both actually town him being suspicious does make some sense.

Liger outed the hood, it's a move I've seen scum do to gain easy cred cause town is starved for info and when you get some you're prone to thank the bearer and consider him on your side irrationally, the rest of his posting though doesn't ping me as especially scummy, he has more of a clueless helpful air.

And yes, that was Seth's reply.

@All
TBG's 1734 is not half bad, it's possible he is conf. biasing on Titus and that's why he endorsed Zakk's horrible read a few pages back.

[Titus]

@ETL
Scum to null.

There's a decent chance Anen slipped when he paid too much attention to my comment to Persivul (when Persivul claimed it was bad that ETL/Titus started the game working together and I asked him, what if they are both town?) and Anen's reply (you make a good point but Persi. has done something unrelated that I find townie so I'm going to ignore it) seems like a cautious buddy defense.

Magma is a hard read because of OMGUS but if scum is aligned close to the block Titus is proposing he is more likely to be town here and if he is better at reading LHF's than me and Seth/Ircher are both actually town him being suspicious does make some sense.

Liger outed the hood, it's a move I've seen scum do to gain easy cred cause town is starved for info and when you get some you're prone to thank the bearer and consider him on your side irrationally, the rest of his posting though doesn't ping me as especially scummy, he has more of a clueless helpful air.

And yes, that was Seth's reply.

@All
TBG's 1734 is not half bad, it's possible he is conf. biasing on Titus and that's why he endorsed Zakk's horrible read a few pages back.

That post is fucking terrible and fails basic stats. I am supposing myself as town under the calculations.

[Titus]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

That's wrong. It's 4/17. I know I'm town. That doesn't mean everyone else knows that. You don't put in hidden information when counting probabilities. That's not how things work. Second, even if that was true, that would make the odds smack damn even. Then, if we actually hit right in the neighborhood, many people would be highly suggested to be clear.

Second, this implies that I'm not at all confident in my reads because I'm not doing what he wants. That reading is inconsistent with the thread. I've been saying zakk, TBG, Persivul, Shotty for AGES now.

Third, this is a pity me shitstorm at the end. Ooh there's mislynch bait that town isn't going after a policy lynch, the thread is crap woah is me. It's nonsense.