New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[copper223]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

[Titus]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

Any other game where I do probabilities. The one that just ended by Varsoon is a good one. Space Dandy 2.

[Liger_Zero]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

I don't like this post, but I don't think its a scum post.
The problem with these math assumptions, is your trying to bring order to something a person (Who wasn't doing this from a mathematical point of view) to it.

If that makes any sense.

[Titus]

Liger, it doesn't.

[Liger_Zero]

Liger, it doesn't.

Well, the mod didn't use a mathematical formula to decide roles/alignments/neighborhoods, I assume so the math is irrelevant.

[Titus]

That's accurate but misleading.

The mod doesn't use a mathematical formula to assign roles. Yet, there is a certain framework that's required. Ideally, each team should have an equal shot of winning. This statement gives us a basic framework to build from and certain conventions established. That framework is where we draw the 1/4 scum and the 4/17 outside the hood.

[Titus]

Do those conventions have to be true? No. Yet, we suppose it to be true.

[TehBrawlGuy]

@Titus
He went back and checked your probabilities, now maybe he is scum looking to grasp at straws before falling off the cliff, but at least he found something he could try to hang on to.

Do you have examples in other games of doing probabilities without factoring in information only you were aware of?

Any other game where I do probabilities. The one that just ended by Varsoon is a good one. Space Dandy 2.

Uh, no?

So we get the pools of

There is one scum in Sensei/Nahdia/KC/Alch. (I'm removing myself because this whole analysis depends on me being town).

There is one scum in RR/DBR/Elbrin/Random.

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

[Titus]

That has been your entire ISO. Playing semantics, misrepping, lurking, and easy pushes.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Current thoughts:
The idea that the neighborhood is 1 scum is terrible imo. You're absolutely outguessing the mod on this, and it reads like a very easy way to set up chain-mislynches. I read the whole neighborhood as Town, tbh.

Titus's math on the neighborhood raises several red flags. From the PoV of a non-neighbor Town, assuming 5 total scum, and 1 in the neighborhood, the odds of hitting neighborhood scum are 1/4, and outside of that, it's 4/16, the same odds. If you're Town, you should automatically exclude yourself from being scum, obviously. Titus isn't doing that math from the PoV of TownTitus, because she can't, so instead she's doing it from a fully neutral view. Secondly, again assuming 5 total scum, 1 neighbor-scum, from a neutral PoV, the odds are 25% and 23.5%. Why the fuck would you ever pick which pile to lynch from for a

less than 2% increase

in odds? Shouldn't any reasonable Town player be far more confident in their reads than a >2% boost, which is only true if the set-up speculation is true, which is already a stretch?

Pers's ISO has me going both ways a little bit, but I settled on a town lean. I feel for him when he said "lynch me". I feel pretty damn similar. This game has been misrepping and confbias out the ass, while you're letting low-content/scummy content players like Seth and Heur off for free, while they get a front seat to watch the thread just devolve into crap.


Fuck set-up speculation, fuck lynching on math instead of reads. One of Seth/Heur needs to die. The bigger wagon right now is Seth, so join me on it.

That's wrong. It's 4/17. I know I'm town. That doesn't mean everyone else knows that. You don't put in hidden information when counting probabilities. That's not how things work. Second, even if that was true, that would make the odds smack damn even. Then, if we actually hit right in the neighborhood, many people would be highly suggested to be clear.

Second, this implies that I'm not at all confident in my reads because I'm not doing what he wants. That reading is inconsistent with the thread. I've been saying zakk, TBG, Persivul, Shotty for AGES now.

Third, this is a pity me shitstorm at the end. Ooh there's mislynch bait that town isn't going after a policy lynch, the thread is crap woah is me. It's nonsense.

Who are you trying to persuade to vote? Town, or Scum? You're not going to convince Scum to vote. If you're trying to persuade Town to vote, then they're all ConfTown to themselves. From the perspective of

any town player outside the hood

, assuming your distribution is correct, it's 1/4 and 4/16. This is not difficult.

And I've been saying that it bothers me that you have the same level of confidence in 4 seperate people at the same time. Faked scumreads have no nuance to them, because they're made up and you already know alignments. Real scumreads come in varying levels of certainty. The fact that you think me, zakk, pers, and shotty have the same chance of being Scum comes from a Scum perspective. A Town player is making their best guesses, and is naturally more or less sure on slots as they do scummy/townie things. I have never, ever met a Town player who had the same level of confidence in 4 different lynches.

I don't want your damn pity. I want you to not mislynch Persivul. I saw him take heat for a statement that I feel is legitimate and I wanted to back him up on it. Seth and Heur are by no means policy lynches. They both have scummy content, and both are taking advantage of Town being a shitstorm to just lay low and let their wagons die.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

[Titus]

Well, it's pretty clear I'm not convincing most scum to bus. You're telling me what I already know. You sat as a viable wagon for days with your buddies scrambling to counter.

From the perspective of any town player, It's 4/17 with one known possibility. That's not how analysis is done. Deductions are reached so EVERYONE can get to the same place without the presupposed knowledge. It prevents the stupid but "I'm town" but "he's scum" argument.

It's bothering you that you're caught. You haven't actually done anything to sort people and now you're trying to pick a fight with me to show how brave and macho you are. You're trying to paint me as someone who doesn't reasses. Do something that's actually worth reassessing on your slot. Stop pretending like you're not hard defending your buddies would be a start. Yet, that's what you're doing and what they are doing to do. You've also never dealt with me. See Klingoncelt getting flipped in YBCA IV. Town recognized each other and stuck Klingoncelt to the wall.

You don't want my pity. I'm not giving you pity. You've got a scumread. I don't feel sorry for you at all. You've frankly had it easy due to the massive VLA.

Second, if you want Seth and Heur lynched, you're going to have to do one hell of a justification because they are textbook policy lynch pushes. You're old enough to know this by now.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Nah, the post you saw clearly demonstrates the fact that it's abnormal to exclude yourself from the possibilities unless conftown. I clearly showed that. I don't need to gather more posts for you to nitpick and quibble. I've grabbed one. You can try to show where I didn't do what I actually did.

[Titus]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

I was lynched due to misleading mod statements. You should check the fuck out after I got lynched. No one suspected me and I was confirmed town. That happens very rarely. It was a very angry post game.

You seem

very

familiar with that game for having known about it for all of five seconds.

[TehBrawlGuy]

It's bothering you that you're caught. You haven't actually done anything to sort people and now you're trying to pick a fight with me to show how brave and macho you are. You're trying to paint me as someone who doesn't reasses. Do something that's actually worth reassessing on your slot. Stop pretending like you're not hard defending your buddies would be a start. Yet, that's what you're doing and what they are doing to do. You've also never dealt with me. See Klingoncelt getting flipped in YBCA IV. Town recognized each other and stuck Klingoncelt to the wall.
.

No, it's bothering me that you're a textbook smug, power hungry Scum and you're getting away with it. I don't want you to reassess my slot to town. I find it incredibly odd that you are on Pers and not me right now. From TownTitus's perspective, you've marked all my posts as scummy for one reason or another, I am "Playing semantics, misrepping, lurking, and easy pushes.", ObvScum, AND the leading wagon. So why in the fuck would you swap to Pers?

TownTitus doesn't do that. TownTitus is dead sure I'm scum, notes Pers as the likely Scum in the neighborhood, but keeps her vote on me because from her PoV I'm scummyscumscum. You swapped to Pers because all the lynches in your scumpool are the same to you, and they're all the same to you because you know they're all town. Hell, Pers might even be better because it sets you up for chain MLs on the hood.

You're not even consistent with your own logic in this game.

Defending yourself is stupid. It's something I found out a long time ago. Find the

actual scum

focus the fuck on them.

TehBrawlGuy - Scum.TBG did nothing but pick favorites until his readwall. He vote parked Ircher since RVS. Only getting off onto a townie imo. He also says he likes thought pattern and tone but never really says why. The things he does explain why on are largely semantic. Not addressing the pressure on him or pushing his reads is just bad.

TownTitus doesn't do this. TownTitus maybe gets on me for not pushing Seth/Heur harder, (but honestly, what the fuck am I going to do when they're lurking?) but you 180 your thoughts on defending oneself when it's convenient to pushing me, because you don't care what logic you lynch on.

TownTitus doesn't exist. VOTE: Titus.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Yes. I made the acknowledgment in that post because A) I was conftown and B) It was atypical to exclude the post.

When I actually did analysis, you'll see that I used actual numbers, it was 1/X.

You can cherry pick anything when you try to divorce it from the context.

Go pull up posts where you didn't do that shit then. You told me to go look at the game, I pulled the very first quote I saw.

Actually, wait, I think this is a straight lie. You got lynched in that game.

Titus was lynched on Day 6. She was Smart Dandy, aligned with The Space Protagonists.

Who the fuck lynches conftown?

I was lynched due to misleading mod statements. You should check the fuck out after I got lynched. No one suspected me and I was confirmed town. That happens very rarely. It was a very angry post game.

You seem

very

familiar with that game for having known about it for all of five seconds.

It's

incredibly

deceptive to say that you were "conftown" in a game that you got lynched in, regardless of reason.
It's also

incredibly

deceptive to link a game as evidence of your behavior, get called out on it being bullshit, and then attempt to call me out for not being familiar with it, while refusing to find any posts that substantiate what you said.

[Titus]

And you seem to think I'm focused on defending myself. I'm not justifying myself to you. There's a difference between correcting blatant misrepresentations and proving your scumread as scum and defending yourself. You're not my audience for what I'm saying, the town is.

It's not deceptive to claim that I was conftown lynched due to mod misleading statements. It's the truth. It's not the least bit deceptive. To say something deceptive, the statement I would first have to say is untrue.
Again, it's not deceptive to highlight my post is actually consistent with my own thinking. You're going to portray it as a fiction.

You and Pers have attempted to do a rhetorical damned if you do damned if you don't. If I am voting you, your buddy argues that I'm not pushing him. I vote him, you argue that my belief it's genuine. I already highlighted that before. I can be equally confident in two scumreads and only have one vote.

Also, you never did justify why you wanted Seth/Heur. That's a classic diversionary tactic. Select only the parts of the post you want to respond to and ignore the rest. Everyone knows that Seth would be policy lynched for being a dick and to save the mods the hassle of replacing the slot. HA again, policy lynch. Yet, you can't defend against that, so your response is to throw more misreps.

You know what's REALLY pissing me off. Every single time a decent case gets posted on one of the scum team, another scumteam member spams the fuck out of the god damn thread. I posted a case that got traction on you TBG. Shotty then starts spamming the fuck out of the thread with irrelevant bullshit. Persivul gets wagoned with all obvious town on it. You start picking a fight based on lies and misrepresentations with me and don't even pretend that's not what you're doing.

[zakk]

Hey brawl vote Persivul with me and Titus instead

I think Titus is town based on pov stuff which I know she could fake but also the wagon on Persivul is good and he's scummy

Everything makes more sense when you assume Titus is town and notice pers is scum. You're being conf biasy on Titus like I was for a bit. Read my recent posts.

Also. Titus. you can't push both the brawl and pers wagons. I choose to trust you right now and I have good reason to mistrust Persivul and I also think TBG is town so let's all coagulate on a Persivul lynch yea?

Stop antagonizing TBG pls

Drink the koolaid ... I will lead us to victoryyy

[TehBrawlGuy]

And you seem to think I'm focused on defending myself. I'm not justifying myself to you. There's a difference between correcting blatant misrepresentations and proving your scumread as scum and defending yourself. You're not my audience for what I'm saying, the town is.

It's not deceptive to claim that I was conftown lynched due to mod misleading statements. It's the truth. It's not the least bit deceptive. To say something deceptive, the statement I would first have to say is untrue.
Again, it's not deceptive to highlight my post is actually consistent with my own thinking. You're going to portray it as a fiction.

You and Pers have attempted to do a rhetorical damned if you do damned if you don't. If I am voting you, your buddy argues that I'm not pushing him. I vote him, you argue that my belief it's genuine. I already highlighted that before. I can be equally confident in two scumreads and only have one vote.

Also, you never did justify why you wanted Seth/Heur. That's a classic diversionary tactic.

Select only the parts of the post you want to respond to and ignore the rest. Everyone knows that Seth would be policy lynched for being a dick and to save the mods the hassle of replacing the slot. HA again, policy lynch. Yet, you can't defend against that, so your response is to throw more misreps.

You know what's REALLY pissing me off. Every single time a decent case gets posted on one of the scum team, another scumteam member spams the fuck out of the god damn thread. I posted a case that got traction on you TBG. Shotty then starts spamming the fuck out of the thread with irrelevant bullshit. Persivul gets wagoned with all obvious town on it. You start picking a fight based on lies and misrepresentations with me and don't even pretend that's not what you're doing.

You know what's a classic diversionary tactic? Posting an entire wall of things to muck up the discussion, a.k.a the Gish Gallop. Relevant excerpt:

The Gish Gallop is the fallacious debating tactic of drowning an opponent in such a torrent of small arguments that the opponent cannot possibly rebut each one in real time.
...if even one argument in the Gish Gallop is untouched or insufficiently rebutted, the Galloper will claim victory -- an abuse of the one single proof fallacy.

I justified my reads on Seth and Heur ages ago. Why the fuck would I attempt to justify them (again) while pushing you? That would only take away from my point.

Your allegation is that three members of the scumteam decided to all hard defend each other on D1? In what world has anyone seen this happen? You're just content to throw shade at any of your major detractors in an attempt to strongarm the Town.

[TehBrawlGuy]

Hey brawl vote Persivul with me and Titus instead

I think Titus is town based on pov stuff which I know she could fake but also the wagon on Persivul is good and he's scummy

Everything makes more sense when you assume Titus is town and notice pers is scum. You're being conf biasy on Titus like I was for a bit. Read my recent posts.

Also. Titus. you can't push both the brawl and pers wagons. I choose to trust you right now and I have good reason to mistrust Persivul and I also think TBG is town so let's all coagulate on a Persivul lynch yea?

Stop antagonizing TBG pls

Drink the koolaid ... I will lead us to victoryyy

I don't like Pers lynch. I said that.

I read your recent posts. You 180'd Titus because of "implied daytalk", which is straight up fallacious when we have no idea if the mafia have an encryptor.

[Expedience]

And the bolded, which you are floating as what scum would do, is exactly what you've done most of the day ... minimize your interactions to miminize associations.

Floating is a good way to describe it but I don't think it means he's actively trying to minimize associations. It's just harder to be engaged as scum.

I was townreading Persivul before, what made me rethink the read was him asking people to vote him. That seemed to me like a scum WIFOM play about making himself look tough and unafraid of votes.

guys copper is the scum in the hood ok solved glad we got that sorted out.

Also, lol.

[Expedience]

VOTE: Persivul

nice trajectory

TBG's posts on this page are town because he's super indignant. Persivul is just caving in to the pressure and asking to be voted because he thinks it looks town.

[Expedience]

Town:
Titus
Aneninen
Liger_Zero

Weak town:
TehBrawlGuy
EspeciallyTheLies
Lowell
Egg
copper223
zakk
MagnaofIllusion
heuristically_alone

Null:
cytheflyguy
Ircher
drmyshottyizsik

Weak scum:
SethYazura
Killthestory
projectmatt
Nosferatu

Scum:
Nahdia
Persivul