Micro 609: DC Dual Universes uPick - Game over!

[Ranger]

ONE:

{Xkfyu, TellTaleHeart}
{Clumsy}
{MagnaofIllusion, Kuroi, lilith}
{SnarkySnowman}
Bit of a soft reset, as of 15.

[Ranger]

Why are we analyzing earth 1 now?

Earth-2 has alignments and roles separate of Earth-1. Earth-2 started today with a nightkill, but otherwise, is at least technically, in theory, completely a blank slate; the only thing we have to go on for Earth-2 is role-based actions for what was effectively a night-0, or on Earth-1, plus all Earth-2 posting.

While I could focus on Earth-2, it would be less productive than me reading (and analyzing) Earth-1, finding conclusions from there, and then continuing on into Earth-2.

[Ranger]

ONE:

{Xkfyu, TellTaleHeart}
{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, lilith}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}
Guess who had a scum entrance on page 20?

[Ranger]

By the way, I know Xkfyu was probably a bodyguard, but.

I strongly think scum killed him in Earth-2 for his play in Earth-1.
I don't think that was him successfully protecting someone.

[Ranger]

ONE:

{Xkfyu, TellTaleHeart}
{Clumsy}
{Kuroi}
{SnarkySnowman, lilith}
{MagnaofIllusion}
26.

[Ranger]

And for what it's worth: my scumread on MagnaofIllusion E-1 is strong enough that I'd lynch him with a cop innocent.

[Clumsy]

Oh wow. I'd like to hear the reasoning here Ranger. When you get there I mean.

And while we are on Earth-Two, Earth-One is still relevant. Maybe not RIGHT NOW, but it is. We can actively compare people between the two, and we will be back on Earth-One eventually. Besides, Ranger is catching up. Let her do her thing.

[Ranger]

TWO:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith, Javajoe}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}
29.

[Ranger]

It is early and possibly premature, but my first guess of Earth Two scum is Lilith and MoI.

Not quite my thoughts.

My thoughts are that's a VERY likely Earth-1 scumteam...

...But I think

one of them

,

and not the other

, is scum in THIS game, with a new partner.
I'm not sure if Xkfyu was killed and MagnaofIllusion is trying to paint it as a protection, or if he protected correctly and lilith is trying to lynch her nightkill. But I think this is true.

So, my Earth-2 list looks something like this:
{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}

But if Magna flips town

, place lilith in his spot instead.
Furthermore, given this Earth-2 play (they both seem to be flat-out saying, "we're scum together in one world, but not scum together in this world), my new

Earth One

readslist is:
{Xkfyu, TellTaleHeart}
{Clumsy}
{Kuroi}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}
{MagnaofIllusion}

[Ranger]

Actually...
{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}
I think MagnaofIllusion's the town between the two here.
They're probably both scum on 1, but on 2, I think Magna drew town.

[Ranger]

{Clumsy, Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart}
{MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}
36.
VOTE: lilith.

[Ranger]

I'd like to hear the reasoning here Ranger. When you get there I mean.

Sure thing.

You're about the same in both: you have posting which feels pretty town. Little things here and there keep pushing you up.
Kuroi was originally a scumread in Earth-1, but after seeing the way the VT claim went down and the events following, that softened into a null read. It eventually grew into a weak townread, but the Kuroi of that game is not the Kuroi I remember seeing in games past. However, in contrast, the Kuroi of

this

earth is exactly what I'd expect from him as town.
Javajoe said a few things here which made me think he was town, and when you combine that with his play in this game being virtually identical to earth-1, and he's a strong townread.
TellTaleHeart is pretty blatantly town in Earth-1. However, while I think she's town here, her play in this game is not nearly as strong as in Earth-1.
MagnaofIllusion in Earth-1 is playing his scum meta to a T. It literally could not be more blatant. His play in this game however feels...different. It's not clearly his town game, either, which is why he's not a strong townread here. But that his play doesn't feel the same is a good indicator to me that he's town this game and scum in the other game.
SnarkySnowman is a tough read to get. He's always a scummy player, 100% of the time. His play in both games is similar levels of bad, but my most recent thoughts are his play is

slightly

different between the two, still, and my current guess is scum here, town in E-1.
lilith's content sounds about the same in both worlds, but the key difference here is, she was nullscum in E-1, and here her interactions with MagnaofIllusion strongly paint her as still being scum. Having a scum player common between both worlds would also be one potential reason Xkfyu was the nightkill. The other, that Xkfyu protected someone, is still possible, albeit less likely.

[KuroiXHF]

I know I should be in bed, but Ranger - can you clarify how my play in Earth 1 differs from my play in Earth 2? I can't tell.

[Ranger]

can you clarify how my play in Earth 1 differs from my play in Earth 2?

It was weaker from the get-go. It picked up steam post-VT claim somewhat, and I began to see more of what I associate with your towngame later, but early in the day, you just looked like scum. Hard to say why, exactly. Things like calling lane's attack an OMGUS, the whole back-and-forth with lane, it just looked like scum putting on bravado, I suppose. Then, post-VT claim, we got some more solid analysis, which was actual ~content~, a trait which is even stronger in here, Earth-2.

[TellTaleHeart]

Earth 1 Stuff:

MagnaofIllusion in Earth-1 is playing his scum meta to a T. It literally could not be more blatant. His play in this game however feels...different. It's not clearly his town game, either, which is why he's not a strong townread here. But that his play doesn't feel the same is a good indicator to me that he's town this game and scum in the other game.

What are you using as standards to compare against in terms of meta?

MoI is one of the reads I'm giving more scrutiny now that the person I expected to flip scum (Javajoe) didn't. Your assessment of him as obvscum surprises me a little but I'd have to see what you're comparing against to make that call.

In hindsight knowing the Lilith is a neighbor, I'm with you on the Lilith read from Earth-1. Her behavior fits the scum neighbor profile to a T. She had her neighbor Joe as a backburner scum read for the majority of the day without ever really making a direct effort to push or sort him. Then when it came time where it looked like he was getting lynched and she was outed as the neighbor, she was suddenly against it and couldn't clearly articulate a good reason for thinking he was town.

I don't have as much confidence in Clumsy (or even Xkfyu) as you seem to. But I'll have to look at that a little later because everyone else is in this morass of null. (Having to pick up the pieces after a mislynch is my least favorite part of this game. @_@ )

To-Do: Earth-2 stuff, articulate Kuroi read

[MagnaofIllusion]

So Ranger is scum on one of the Earths, if not both. I’ll need to do some more thinking on the subject but her entry is made to establish an agenda. That much is clear. The one thing I do know is that whatever Earth she is scum on Lillith is not her partner. Bussing in a 9 player game is stupid.

And this post specifically is classic scum Ranger –

I couldn't find Earth-2 btw, which from my understanding is some separate topic? I couldn't find it in my role PM, and I skimmed the Private Topics forum and couldn't find it there, either. It shouldn't matter, since from my understanding, roles and alignments between the worlds are separate and therefore Earth-2 isn't really relevant to me until we actually reach Earth-2, but that does mean my reads here will be limited to Earth-1.

It is meant to show her as uniformed and out of touch (and thus Town because if she was scum she’d have went to her scum PT to get information). However just looking at Page 1 should clearly show her that there are not different Earth threads. It is beyond a reasonable assessment that Ranger who is so revered as a strong and powerful scum-hunter makes a mistake that plainly stupid.

As for meta here’s the first example I can show you. More to come soon I expect …

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=65795

(That was five. I somehow thought Killthestory was alive.)

Oops, look how Townie I am I forgot Kill was not alive. LAMIST to a tee. There’s going to be a song and dance from her about how it was an honest Townie mistake … blah blah blah.

It’s not credible no matter how she spins it.

[SnarkySnowman]

I think I follow what you're saying Magna, but I think that pertains more to Earth 1 than Earth 2.

[Ranger]

What are you using as standards to compare against in terms of meta?

Game one, MagnaofIllusion as scum.
Game two, MagnaofIllusion as an early-replacement scum. (Speaking of, ironically enough I would have had his slot if I was quicker on the trigger, since, once again, this is a game I didn't want to bother signing up for but really wanted to play as a replacement in and I offered the moment the opportunity arose. This time though, I'm

not

his scumbuddy so I can actually point out how ridiculously obvious his scumplay is.)

I don't have as much confidence in Clumsy (or even Xkfyu) as you seem to.

Well Clumsy is admittedly not as strong a read as could be. But Xkfyu? For a start, Xkfyu's dead. Potential protection is a source he could have died from, but equally as probable is that scum in this earth decided to off him for his play in that earth. Which speaks volumes for how town he is there. His posts were solid. His play was good. So on that earth, he's one of my strongest townreads.

It is meant to show her as uniformed and out of touch (and thus Town because if she was scum she’d have went to her scum PT to get information).

OR, get this. I accidentally slipped that I have no night action in Earth-2, information that I did not want to give away. At the time, I didn't know lane had claimed VT explicitly in Earth-1, but this also held a minor implication that I didn't have a night action in Earth-1, either. So, I accidentally let slip that in both worlds, I have no ability to action. This is not a desired outcome, because scum aren't going to nightkill someone who can't action at night. For obvious reasons, I would prefer not to say whether I have a passive ability in this world or not, though of course I'll say that I don't have any negative utility passive attached to my role here.

Oops, look how Townie I am I forgot Kill was not alive.

And if you had actually read the postgame there, you would have known that was no fake meant for towncred. That was derp. Not townderp. Not scumderp. Just derp. I made an oversight. That oversight was entirely null, because Killthestory was lynched, not nightkilled. LYNCHED. As in, something both town and scum should know about and therefore no reason to fake lack of knowledge. It was not done for town credit for there was no town credit to be had. It was not done deliberately. It happened because I legitimately just made an oversight, and this is something I explained both in the scum PT (which is unfortunately not available due to a mod flake; I did contact the listmod and ask about it, but I haven't gotten a reply back since then), and in postgame.

Now if you want to make an argument for derping itself being a scumtell, go ahead. If your argument is that I'm not faking, but would still not make the mistake as town, go ahead. I'll even help you. In that game, I listed

the moderator

as a player who I had a null read on, and I was in fact scum. That move offered me no tactical advantage and was, as a result, no fake. It was just derp. I'd love to hear you make that argument though. Because if you keep on doting on about how I fake these townslips, you will continue to be ignored since none of them were in fact fake. They were just derp.

[lilith2013]

There's an incongruence in Ranger's read on me:

lilith's content sounds about the same in both worlds, but the key difference here is, she was nullscum in E-1, and here her interactions with MagnaofIllusion strongly paint her as still being scum. Having a scum player common between both worlds would also be one potential reason Xkfyu was the nightkill. The other, that Xkfyu protected someone, is still possible, albeit less likely.

Ranger says Xk being the nightkill points to me being scum in both worlds here. However, in 958, she says that my being scum would explain why I tried to wagon Magna. But you can't have it both ways; I can't be scum because I both nightkilled Xk

and

am trying to lynch my NK Magna who didn't die.

Also please explain how my interaction with Magna makes me scum.

@TTH: you haven't seen the neighborhood, which is basically me pushing Joe for his thought processes throughout the game. I agree I probably should have attempted to sort him more in the main thread, but I wasn't "against" his wagon as you seem to think; I even said his posts in the neighborhood thread came off as scummy. I just pointed out the same thing that Xk did, that there was almost no resistance to that wagon, and at that point, why wouldn't I just hammer or jump on that wagon or whatever? What motivation would I have as scum to defend someone who is clearly going to be lynched anyway, and who is being scummy enough that I probably wouldn't get any flak for participating in the lynch?

[Ranger]

Ranger says Xk being the nightkill points to me being scum in both worlds here. However, in 958, she says that my being scum would explain why I tried to wagon Magna. But you can't have it both ways; I can't be scum because I both nightkilled Xk and am trying to lynch my NK Magna who didn't die.

You're correct.

It cannot both be true that Xkfyu protected against a nightkill, and Xkfyu was the nightkill.
One, or the other, must be true.

The thing is, in either case, you are among the players with the greatest incentive to do so. If Xkfyu was the nightkill, then you are one of the players most likely to have killed him. If Xkfyu was protecting someone against the nightkill and my theory on MagnaofIllusion being town this Earth but a scumbuddy in the prior Earth is true, then your attitude towards him ("why isn't he dead?") marks you as likely scum.

So you see, it's not so much a case of trying to have my cake and eat it too, as much as it is that no matter what I'm eating my cake and refuse to keep it. In either case, you're scum. I don't know which happened. I do know you're scum no matter what.

[TellTaleHeart]

I just pointed out the same thing that Xk did, that there was almost no resistance to that wagon, and at that point, why wouldn't I just hammer or jump on that wagon or whatever? What motivation would I have as scum to defend someone who is clearly going to be lynched anyway, and who is being scummy enough that I probably wouldn't get any flak for participating in the lynch?

Because the town neighbor flip and meta draws scrutiny to you and it invites setup speculation about how plausible an all town neighborhood is.
As scum, it would definitely be better for you to have Joe alive than dead.

[Clumsy]

Ranger says Xk being the nightkill points to me being scum in both worlds here. However, in 958, she says that my being scum would explain why I tried to wagon Magna. But you can't have it both ways; I can't be scum because I both nightkilled Xk and am trying to lynch my NK Magna who didn't die.

You're correct.

It cannot both be true that Xkfyu protected against a nightkill, and Xkfyu was the nightkill.
One, or the other, must be true.

This is pretty much how I read it, wasn't thinking it was an incongruence at all.


TTH, and everyone else for that matter, what do you think of Ranger and Magna going for the throat so quickly on one another? There was no middle ground, it was immediately 100% scum. Thoughts?

[Ranger]

what do you think of Ranger and Magna going for the throat so quickly on one another? There was no middle ground, it was immediately 100% scum.

Not exactly. MagnaofIllusion's town in this Earth, I'm pretty sure.

I'm just absolutely 100% confident that the Earth-1 MagnaofIllusion is scum. I don't care what role actions happen in Earth-1 when we get there. If he were investigated by a cop and the cop got an innocent, I'd still lynch him. That's how sure I am that he's scum there.

But here, he's probably town.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be V/LA starting today at 5pm EDT until June 11th. I’ll be out of the country with limited access … how often I can check will be determined when I get there.

@Clumsy

–

What are your thoughts on Ranger’s alignment here after her catch-up. I’d be very interested in what you think.

As expected Ranger came in with a song and dance explaining this and that and how it was blah blah blah tons of pointless words. She even tries to frame that it is her claiming no Night action on Earth2 that is what I am calling her faked drop. It clearly isn’t – the faked drop is that she couldn’t find the Earth2 thread.

If you agree that Ranger is as sharp as some people claim she it then it does not follow that she would constantly be making derps like that which are beyond the pale as far as outright stupidity are concerned.

I think I follow what you're saying Magna, but I think that pertains more to Earth 1 than Earth 2.

I disagree as the entirety of Ranger’s posts happened on Earth2. That she’s chosen to sideline 75% of her discussion to Earth 1 instead isn’t my concern. And I haven’t parsed if she’s scum here or not.

What are your thoughts on her Earth2 alignment Snarky?

I'm just absolutely 100% confident that the Earth-1 MagnaofIllusion is scum. I don't care what role actions happen in Earth-1 when we get there. If he were investigated by a cop and the cop got an innocent, I'd still lynch him. That's how sure I am that he's scum there.

Yeah, we will hash this out if we ever get back to Earth1.

[Clumsy]

Well, here's the thing. Derps happen. I've made them, Ranger's made them. It happens. HOWEVER. In a recent game with Ranger (ended), she came in and derp hammered someone, claiming to not have read yet. She was venge-killed for it, and turned out she was the last scum. So I definitely see what you're talking about here. I just don't know if that's the case or not. Honestly, I don't have a read on her alignment, or yours for that matter, on Earth-Two yet. I do feel like one of you is probably scum. I'm going to have to watch a bit more and go back and read my games with Ranger to get a stance. (Seriously, how many games is this now Ranger? O.o) Sorry I don't have a hard read for you right this second, I suck early game. I'll get back to you on that.

Also, let me make sure I have this right. Ranger thinks you're scum on Earth-One, and you think she's scum on Earth-Two, right? Ranger, what makes you think Magna is town on Earth-Two exactly?