A Musical Mafia! (Game over)


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Post Post #6425 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:45 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6393, pistachi0n wrote:
In post 6388, podoboq wrote:(I'd also like to note that I'm pretty confident who I think the SK/Vig is, and I think they're SK.)
(In case I'm wrong, I'm not going to say who, or call for their lynch right now.)
What makes you think SK as opposed to vig? Should that change our approach?
It's just a specific read on the player I suspect. The person I suspect of being SK/Vig is someone I've started to scumread.
In post 6403, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
In post 6402, Mirhawk wrote:
In post 6379, podoboq wrote:First and foremost: If Dram flips scum, and the game doesn't immediately end, we either have five scum or a serial killer. Which of the two is more likely?
I don't think there's any way to tell. At least not right away.
I'm not asking anyone to claim here, but did I miss a claimed vig or are we just assuming? Because in that case a SK may not be unlikely, again do not claim if you are the vig and already have.
There is no vig claim out there yet.
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Post Post #6426 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:51 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6392, Flubbernugget wrote:Podo you're responding to my accusations with self meta and I have no clue what you're expecting from that.
The post that I think you're responding to is a response to you talking about your self meta. :?
In post 6274, Flubbernugget wrote:When I'm scum and under pressure, I feel compelled to prove I'm town, which detracts from actually playing town
Plus, I'm talking more about how I haven't stopped contributing to town.
In post 6286, podoboq wrote:I feel like I haven't stopped contributing to town here. My goal is, and always has been, to be completely transparent. When I'm sheeping players, I explain that that's what I'm doing, and why I'm doing it. I make sure to provide read lists frequently, because my opinions on slots naturally evolve throughout the game. When my scumreads do something that is kind of towny, I try to point it out, and vice versa. This is all stuff that could make people think I'm scum, but I don't care that it's seen as scummy, because it's more important to me as town to relay my thoughts as accurately as possible than it is to be perceived as town.

This is stuff I haven't stopped doing today, even though I'm part of the lynch pool. I've just also focused on responding to people who are scumreading me, because I want them to show me the same level of transparency.
You were implying that I wasn't playing as town, and instead was trying to prove that I was town, and I pointed out that my gameplay hasn't significantly changed. That's not self meta. That's just how I've acted this game.


I haven't been trying to make a towncase on myself, just as nobody else seems to have made a scumcase on me. I'm just trying to respond to specific concerns people have. Should I go make a case on why I'm town? Nobody seemed to read TPP's towncase on me.
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Post Post #6427 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:07 pm

Post by Cerberus v666 »

Just a reminder to anyone who is considering relying on the vigs shots working: We have a night where they didn't shoot, and cause to suspect 1)ascetics, and/or 2)roleblockers(I'm referring to shotty's lack of results for his investigations). It's not unreasonable for us to assume that scum know exactly who the vig is because they feel like they blocked them on N2.

Of course, the game also does have a 1 shot triggered bulletproof, and an x shot passive bulletproof(both of whom were PRIME targets for being shot by a town aligned player on N2), so it's entirely possible that scum have no idea who the vig is.

Actually, let's think about this. Shotty's slot investigated two night in a row, and was blocked both nights.

Pistachion, you aren't an ascetic, right?

And Axelrod wasn't an ascetic either.

So, both of those failures must have come from roleblocks. Shotty's predecessor had claimed to be a flavor cop on D2.

So, possibilities:

1) Scum did not believe they were a flavor cop, and kept blocking them.
2) They're lying scum(but why would they fake claim flavor cop? it's easily testable. This part of their claim MUST be true, but it may not be the entirety of the claim)
3) They were roleblocked one night by scum, and jailkept the second. Or perhaps simply jailkept both nights, BY TOWN, trying to save them. The question that arises then is...JOAT BP, bodyguard, jailkeeper, AND passive BP? Is that reasonable in a game which apparently has two sources of kills? Scum had 1 shot strongman, so...maybe?
4) They were directly roleblocked one night, and a global roleblock of some sort happened the other.

Do we have any preexisting claims of actions taken on N2?

@podoboq: You are wrong. Conftown is not more qualified to make any decision. We simply know that their decision will be motivated with towns best interests in mind 100% of time, rather than the 75%(not 50%!) of the time a randomly selected slot would be town.

Also, Itlepip: you do realize your entire roles value has been compromised, yes? By outing that you're a bodyguard, scum will simply block you(which is something we have evidence of them doing) and just kill whoever they want? You need to remove the assumption that you'll die before the end game from your equations.

@Rob13: What can you tell us about how Skybirds Kingmaker ability functioned? She selected someone, and that individual presented us with the only option to lynch? Were there any restrictions on who she could target? What can you tell us about Dwlee's beloved prince modifier? The wiki says princess skips the next day phase. How did Dwlee's role function? Was the NEXT phase skipped, or was the next NIGHT skipped every time? Did it only trigger off lynches, or did it trigger off kills as well?


I'm deep into spec territory here now, sorry, my mind has kinda kicked into gear as I realized we have all this fucking information and people are just sitting around with their thumbs up their asses. I'm just trying to determine scum power levels here. Depending on how Rob13 answers these questions, there are wildly differing levels of power presented by scum.
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Post Post #6428 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:18 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6427, Cerberus v666 wrote:@podoboq: You are wrong. Conftown is not more qualified to make any decision. We simply know that their decision will be motivated with towns best interests in mind 100% of time, rather than the 75%(not 50%!) of the time a randomly selected slot would be town.
This is semantics. Percentage-wise, I feel like it's 50/50 because they could be either SK or Vig, and I think it's a coinflip which of those two roles we're playing with. My usage of the word "qualified" is probably wrong, but you know what I meant. I'd have conf town own the decision of who to night kill rather than an unknown.
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Post Post #6429 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:20 pm

Post by dramonic »

In post 6424, podoboq wrote:
In post 6421, dramonic wrote:Leashing is bad play. The fact a player is conftown doesn't mean they're right. I fully trust Pist to exclusively aim the vig/sk at town players.
Conftown is more qualified to make the decision than somebody who has a 50/50 shot of being against town. Just because pistachi0n is fallible doesn't mean we shouldn't trust her with vig powers.
That's easily breakable

We have 12p
We know we have a shooter.

We have him claim and do the following from there:

Case 1
we lynch, go to 11 players, potential 2 shots down to 9.
IF NO DEAD SCUM
we lynch, go to 8 players and have him not shoot, potential 1 shot down to 7
IF NO DEAD SCUM
We lynch him at 7p and go into potential 5p lylo.

Case 2: We hit scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him at 5p and go into potential 3p LyLo.

Case 3: We hit 2 scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him.


If a shot fails on one night, shooter can shoot an extra time.

If at any point he disobeys we lynch him, potentially letting scum win. That will stop any vig from going gung ho and any SK from trying to be sneaky.


There.
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Post Post #6430 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:24 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6429, dramonic wrote:
In post 6424, podoboq wrote:
In post 6421, dramonic wrote:Leashing is bad play. The fact a player is conftown doesn't mean they're right. I fully trust Pist to exclusively aim the vig/sk at town players.
Conftown is more qualified to make the decision than somebody who has a 50/50 shot of being against town. Just because pistachi0n is fallible doesn't mean we shouldn't trust her with vig powers.
That's easily breakable

We have 12p
We know we have a shooter.

We have him claim and do the following from there:

Case 1
we lynch, go to 11 players, potential 2 shots down to 9.
IF NO DEAD SCUM
we lynch, go to 8 players and have him not shoot, potential 1 shot down to 7
IF NO DEAD SCUM
We lynch him at 7p and go into potential 5p lylo.

Case 2: We hit scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him at 5p and go into potential 3p LyLo.

Case 3: We hit 2 scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him.


If a shot fails on one night, shooter can shoot an extra time.

If at any point he disobeys we lynch him, potentially letting scum win. That will stop any vig from going gung ho and any SK from trying to be sneaky.


There.
I was thinking of only applying this once we have another dead scum, but that works too. I thought you were against leashing the SK/Vig.
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Post Post #6431 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:25 pm

Post by dramonic »

If the shooter doesn't claim he's an SK.

EDIT: I'm letting the sk/vig shoot who he wants.
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Post Post #6432 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:30 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6431, dramonic wrote:EDIT: I'm letting the sk/vig shoot who he wants.
Oh, OK, wasn't picking up on that. At least you're willing to respect the legitimate threat that there's an SK. As long as people don't forget to play around that, I'm happy.
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Post Post #6433 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:31 pm

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

sounds good to me
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Post Post #6434 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:34 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6430, podoboq wrote:Case 1
we lynch, go to 11 players, potential 2 shots down to 9.
IF NO DEAD SCUM
we lynch, go to 8 players and
have him not shoot
, potential 1 shot down to 7
IF NO DEAD SCUM
We lynch him at 7p and go into potential 5p lylo.
If he chooses to shoot that night, and we don't flip scum, we go to 6, and it's game over.
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Post Post #6435 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:37 pm

Post by Mirhawk »

In post 6420, pistachi0n wrote:
In post 6417, Mirhawk wrote:I was hoping we could autowin, but I guess not.
Why not?
The way the numbers work out we would need to have one more confirmed town player for that to work.

We could just assume that Shotty/Ogre is town, but I think lots of people have lost confidence in that slot since shotty took it over.

If we had one more player we could just go into three player Lylo with two confirmed town which would be an autowin basically. But we don't have that precisely, what we do have would require a certain amount of faith that shotty is town.

That also includes us assuming that the Vig is town for the record. Oh and that the roleblocker doesn't block the vig tonight. So eh.

Gimmie a minute to look over Drams thing.
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Post Post #6436 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:49 pm

Post by Mirhawk »

In post 6429, dramonic wrote:That's easily breakable

We have 12p
We know we have a shooter.

We have him claim and do the following from there:

Case 1
we lynch, go to 11 players, potential 2 shots down to 9.
IF NO DEAD SCUM
we lynch, go to 8 players and have him not shoot, potential 1 shot down to 7
IF NO DEAD SCUM
We lynch him at 7p and go into potential 5p lylo.

Case 2: We hit scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him at 5p and go into potential 3p LyLo.

Case 3: We hit 2 scum at some point in the case 1 scenario
we lynch him.


If a shot fails on one night, shooter can shoot an extra time.

If at any point he disobeys we lynch him, potentially letting scum win. That will stop any vig from going gung ho and any SK from trying to be sneaky.


There.
So essentially it boils down to:

The vig claims now, and if we're in danger of going to lylo we lynch him. The point being to protect us from any potential SK shenanigans.

Other than that its business as usual.

I don't have a problem with this, but the vig might as it could open them up to a possible mislynch down the road.
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Post Post #6437 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:52 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6436, Mirhawk wrote: So essentially it boils down to:

The vig claims now, and if we're in danger of going to lylo we lynch him. The point being to protect us from any potential SK shenanigans.

Other than that its business as usual.

I don't have a problem with this, but the vig might as it could open them up to a possible mislynch down the road.
That why in order to enact this plan, Vig would have to claim today, on the promise that otherwise, they are lynched the second they claim. Not sure if this is the best course of action yet, but it's a plan.
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Post Post #6438 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:53 pm

Post by Mirhawk »

In post 6434, podoboq wrote:If he chooses to shoot that night, and we don't flip scum, we go to 6, and it's game over.
In that case we no lynch.

If that happens its probably a SK, which would mean we wouldn't be in lylo.
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Post Post #6439 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:57 pm

Post by Mirhawk »

In all honesty I'm not sure if there is any more benefit in them claiming now over later.

We all know which players the vig has to be hidden amongst, they're going to have to claim eventually anyways.

There are at least three roles that have to be in the game and only four players who haven't claimed.
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Post Post #6440 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:00 pm

Post by dramonic »

In post 6434, podoboq wrote:
In post 6430, podoboq wrote:Case 1
we lynch, go to 11 players, potential 2 shots down to 9.
IF NO DEAD SCUM
we lynch, go to 8 players and
have him not shoot
, potential 1 shot down to 7
IF NO DEAD SCUM
We lynch him at 7p and go into potential 5p lylo.
If he chooses to shoot that night, and we don't flip scum, we go to 6, and it's game over.
No, we then lynch the SK, THEN we lose if there are 5 scum.
The point isn't to win as town.
The point is to force the SK into a lose so he DOESN'T disobey.
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Post Post #6441 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:01 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6438, Mirhawk wrote:
In post 6434, podoboq wrote:If he chooses to shoot that night, and we don't flip scum, we go to 6, and it's game over.
In that case we no lynch.

If that happens its probably a SK, which would mean we wouldn't be in lylo.
HYPOTHETICAL:
We have three town, two scum, one SK

OPTION 1:
no lynch, scum kills one of town, SK kills one of town
go into last day with one town, two mafia, and one SK

OPTION 2:
no lynch, scum kills one of town, SK kills one of scum
go into last day with two town, one mafia, and one SK
if we lynch either, the other wins

OPTION 3:
lynch scum, scum kills one of town, SK kills one of town
go into last day with one town, one mafia, and one SK

OPTION 4:
lynch scum, scum kills one of town, SK kills one of scum
go into last day with two town, NO mafia, and one SK
so we can lynch SK in this situation, but only if SK has no idea who's town, and randomly, accidentally kills mafia

OPTION 5:
lynch SK, scum kills one of town
go into last day with two town, two mafia

I don't see any way plausible way to win in this situation. This is assuming SK works the way I'm familiar with, where they have night immunity, and scum won't target them.
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Post Post #6442 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:02 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6440, dramonic wrote:The point isn't to win as town.
The point is to force the SK into a lose so he DOESN'T disobey.
That's a really good point, actually.
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Post Post #6443 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:04 pm

Post by dramonic »

You'll notice the only scenario where the SK wins is Scenario 4, if we don't know who the SK is.
If he claims today he loses every scenario.

Basically by claiming today the shooter guarantees his death, but we guarantee no SK win.
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Post Post #6444 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:06 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6442, podoboq wrote:
In post 6440, dramonic wrote:The point isn't to win as town.
The point is to force the SK into a lose so he DOESN'T disobey.
That's a really good point, actually.
Come to think of it, that's just putting SK in the position of kingmaker, because SK can't possibly win following your plan. He's likely to just give the game to scum.

Also, at six, with three town, you can't get him lynched without mafia's help. Unlikely to matter. Just worthy of mentioning.
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Post Post #6445 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:07 pm

Post by podoboq »

In post 6443, dramonic wrote:You'll notice the only scenario where the SK wins is Scenario 4, if we don't know who the SK is.
If he claims today he loses every scenario.

Basically by claiming today the shooter guarantees his death, but we guarantee no SK win.
So SK doesn't claim, but vig does. Would like input from the rest of town when they get a chance to read through all of this.
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Post Post #6446 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:10 pm

Post by dramonic »

Do you really think mafia wouldn't help lynch an SK? <_<

EDIT: SK isn't gonna claim though. The point is that if it's a vig they should claim so we can create a setup where we have zero room for shooter WIFOM.
I am well-aware that it's a "free mislynch" if it's a vig, but I prefer mislynching when it's safe than keeping a shooter alive on a 50/50
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Post Post #6447 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:12 pm

Post by podoboq »

Dram. We're working together. It's a miracle.
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Post Post #6448 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:13 pm

Post by dramonic »

We have no way to confirm the alignment of the shooter, of course we wanna lynch mafia but I have no interest in running the risk of an SK win by keeping him alive when lynching him is a risk.
Vig just has to accept that his death is an unavoidable event if town doesn't lynch
TPP
scum before the fated hour.
Or if he doesn't shoot well.

EDIT: Well nobody wants an SK to win.
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Post Post #6449 (ISO) » Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:18 pm

Post by podoboq »

dram, if TPP ends up being scum, I will write you an official apology, on pretty stationary, and mail it to you.
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