New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[Nahdia]

i don't see ur point.

[copper223]

My point is you dropping the Magna read and me being in a hood with him are not as connected as you claim.

[Nahdia]

when did i say i was dropping the magna read b4 that.

[zakk]

i just noticed that both shotty and titus are trying to paint me as scum with the other one

like really guys let me help you distance from each other harder

Are you saying they're both scum?

i felt that way yesterday but after talking with shotty a bit i'm not really feeling it any more

Vote Tally Table

	Anen	Cythefly	Egg	Expe	Ircher	Kop	Liger	Lowell	Magna	Nahdia	Nos	PMatt	Shaz	Shotty	Titus	Zakk
1	Kop	Ircher	Ircher	Copper	Shaz	Copper	Zakk	Zakk	Liger	Ircher	Copper	TBG	Magna	Magna	Copper	Ircher
2	TGB	Titus	Kop	KTS	Shotty	Cythefly	Persi	TBG	TBG	Copper	Kop	Cythefly	Cythefly	Ircher	Shotty	Ircher
3	Nos	TGB	KTS	Kop	Copper	KTS	No Vote	Magna	KTS	Anen	-	Kop	Persi	Titus	Cythefly	Cythefly
4	-	Persi	-	Persi	Kop	Shotty	-	Shaz	TBG	Persi	-	Anen	Persi	Ircher	TBG	ETL
5	-	Titus	-	Nahdia	Nos	-	-	Anen	Persi	Copper	-	Persi	Nos	Titus	Persi	Titus
6	-	-	-	Persi	Cythefly	-	-	Persi	-	Anen	-	Anen	Zakk	Ircher	Persi	Persi
7	-	-	-	-	TBG	-	-	Zakk	-	-	-	-	-	Kop	Zakk	KTS
8	-	-	-	-	Persi	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Egg	-	Persi
9	-	-	-	-	Shotty	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Zack	-	Titus
10	-	-	-	-	Shaz	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Pers	-	Lowell
11	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TBG	-	Titus
12	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KTS	-	-
13	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Titus	-	-
14	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Zakk	-	-
15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	Titus	-	-

i was pretty impressed, then i was like wait, this is IIoA for town cred!, then i was like oh wait look at the post after it hell yeah!, then i was like -____-

What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:

Anen: town getting pushed by scum.

Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.

Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?

Expe: Town not having a fun time.

Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.

Liger: town newbie.

Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.

Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).

Nos: see pre-post read.

PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).

Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.

Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).

Titus: town by definition in this world.

Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.

then i was like... why did you skip the analysis of lowell?

Also yes shotty I accept your offer

Vote: Titus

"Hey, at least she's better than trump"

I'm getting v tired of this game
V annoyed at 4 deaths and no scum flips

What were you expecting? For scum to kill themselves?

unless you think there are 2 town vigilantes

this is a really dumb question

@Copper

What do you think of shotty and Zakk tunneling each other while avoiding voting as major wagons?

this is also

patently

untrue

dying to see you substantiate this in any way shape or form.

ready set go.

My point is why is he taking the time to defend you as well? He is trying to protect you.

We're townreads of each other. That's natural. Now, why are you trying to divert from Zakk instead of voting him if you think he's scum?

Look we are going in circles here. I think multiple people are scum, if every time I vote one of you, you say well if you think they are scum vote them, and I switch votes we will get no where.

This isn't circles. You bailed on the one most likely to get lynched. You feel Zakk/Ircher/me, you should vote the largest wagon of the three. That's Zakk.

wow titus you are a bully

this isn't even you saying "town shotty would do this, scum shotty would do that"
or even "scum-shotty who is buddies with scum-zakk should do that"

this is you telling shotty to vote me.

shotty WAS voting me, which you clearly know, but you're choosing to be ignorant, and you're trying to frame it badly to make shotty AND me look bad.

which in turn only makes YOU look bad.






no longer think titus and shotty are aligned together.

copper shifts townier for the analysis however leaving out lowell is

[zakk]

Also I love that when zakk's wagon got some legs, you switched off. Seems like you got nervous about bussing him.

I'VE BEEN TRYING TO LYNC HIM FOR 100 DAMN PAGES

you haven't been trying very hard

vote me

[zakk]

i think you know i'm gonna flip town but you know it'll make you look bad when i do

[zakk]

i think titus and shotty are on opposite scum teams

[zakk]

in which case, no, stay voting titus, and NK me ... if you can

it'll work out better for you in the long run.

[zakk]

titus needs to die

most

everyone vote titus

[Ircher]

@Zakk
The Q was rhetorical in nature, and why do you imply that there are two town vigs in this game?

[zakk]

Also yes shotty I accept your offer

Vote: Titus

"Hey, at least she's better than trump"

I'm getting v tired of this game
V annoyed at 4 deaths and no scum flips

What were you expecting? For scum to kill themselves?

unless you think there are 2 town vigilantes

this is a really dumb question

The Q was rhetorical in nature, and why do you imply that there are two town vigs in this game?

this post might help you
specifically the bolded parts.

well there are three kills, which either means

2 scum teams 1 vig
2 scum teams 1 sk
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig

i think it's unlikely anyone who was scum or SK would want to take out KTS, especially an SK. they would want him alive to draw aggro

so eliminating the 2 scum teams 1 sk option, we have:

2 scum teams 1 vig
1 scum team 1 sk 1 vig

however, since i think that TBG was seen as someone who was a wagon that existed pretty much all day, but wasn't able to be pushed through, it's possible that either an SK, "rival" scum, or a vig would want to off him, thinking he was scum, and KTS seems like a vig shot for daaammmnnnn sure

so NK analysis leaves us with:

vigilante KTS
scum/sk TBG
scum/sk ETL

i'm happy with this.

so now we need to look for multi-scum dynamics.

Spoiler: simple logic dictates that

there are two scum teams or a scum team and an SK

hence my upsetness at 100 pages without a single scum flip and yet were four down

Spoiler: bonus

since you may still not get it:
i was saying unless you think (as you appeared to, in #2525) that there's only one scum team, and no serial killer, you must therefore believe town has two separate vigilantes

karma. please smile on me today.

[Nosferatu]

Everyone is a neighbor, Persivul, unless you live on a park bench or something. What's your role, though?

VIG NAHDIA REGARDLESS OF FLIP

brb

could you claim that hood you slipped way back when? It's bothering me now.

You're either dumb or scum pretending to be dumb.

was it a joke or something? Stop being a piece of shit and clarify.

[Ircher]

@Zakk
You're suggesting multiball with 2 town vigs?

Say what you mean rather than being ambiguous and contradictory.

[Nosferatu]

Nosferatu is likely scum, she jumped on my early crap wagon, which Titus kindly provided, then voted for the Kop_slot (whom I am now assuming is a worse version of KTS), did her best to get Persi lynched without voting him cause otherwise it would have been a scum-pile (that knowing he would be lynched is a likely slip, she knew her teammates could hammer), her coordinated push with Nahdia today on Anen. is another sign that they are working together (one fills the list for the other when manipulating Titus after all).

Why is me filling in the list manipulating Titus?

the progression of this read is so shit

[copper223]

@Nos
Because you are helping to frame the context for Titus (I mentioned that also to highlight how coordinated your play and Nahdia's is).

@Zakk
Yeah IIoA, disregarding that I started posting about what I was doing and what results were coming out while in the process...

I noticed after posting that I'd forgotten to write about Lowell and decided to leave it like that to see if either of you would ask me about it, the votes there make me lean town mainly cause he voted Magna.

[zakk]

@Zakk
You're suggesting multiball with 2 town vigs?

Say what you mean rather than being ambiguous and contradictory.

[copper223]

when did i say i was dropping the magna read b4 that.

When you did nothing further with it.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Ircher do just not read?

[zakk]

@Zakk
Yeah IIoA, disregarding that I started posting about what I was doing and what results were coming out while in the process...

Re: IIoA

i basically said "ope, never mind, here's the analysis", so why are you taking umbrage with that?

Spoiler:

Vote Tally Table

-snip-

i was pretty impressed

then i was like wait, this is IIoA for town cred!
then i was like oh wait look at the post after it hell yeah!

then i was like -____-

What the votes say, assuming Titus is having a bad game and being used as a battering ram to take the heat, by scum:

Anen: town getting pushed by scum.

Cythefly: bad town being spoon-fed by scum and lapping it up, or scum being very brazen under the cover of being a newbie.

Egg: see previous post, likely scum. @Titus why no early scumread on Egg?

Expe: Town not having a fun time.

Ircher: omgus or vote on the biggest wagons is the pattern that emerges here, this is such a terrible pattern you should be ashamed if you are town, and in this world you are.

Liger: town newbie.

Magna: follows Titus on Copper (whitout a vote) under the cover of clearing his PT, but then doesn't have anything to ask in said PT, follows Titus (and PM) on TBG, which is consistent with the initial hypothesis, the votes are both bad and very opportunistic.

Nahdia: Scum with Nos PM and Magna, taking advantage of Titus whom she pockets early with a town-lean. Particularly worrisome are her discarding her early Magna read for no reason (finished distancing) when Titus asked her for further names, her coordination with Nosferatu (push on me, push on Anen, Nos was likely positioning herself to go on Ircher with Nahdia as well with that stats post) and her read switch on Anen (PM also switches and the reason he gives is pretty weak, he liked a lot of Anen's early posting but now he looks weaker).

Nos: see pre-post read.

PMatt: Other than what mentioned with other players, very early town read on both Titus and Ircher (consistent with the scum strategy hypothesized here).

Shaz: new-town doing his own thing.

Shotty: In this world he is more likely duped town than scum, the emphasis on wanting to lynch Ircher/Titus with a vengeance while compromising if the game state requires it makes his reads likely genuine (and crap).

Titus: town by definition in this world.

Zakk: Like shotty his reads in this world are garbage but genuine in the way he is pushing, he also has solo votes on slots that nobody is even looking at and where is the support from his supposed teammates in that or why is he picking fights with lowell and ETL when he already is against Titus & co, more so than Shotty this here is misguided town.

then i was like... why did you skip the analysis of lowell?

-----------------

I noticed after posting that I'd forgotten to write about Lowell and decided to leave it like that to see if either of you would ask me about it, the votes there make me lean town mainly cause he voted Magna.

i think you either omitted it ON PURPOSE or you didn't notice at all, and yuo're trying to cover up after the fact.

lowell is clearly not gonna ask you about it, and i would not have noticed except i wanted specifically to see what you thought of lowell camping. i might not have even noticed it at all. and i don't think you would have done anything.

scum points copper. i don't know why town would lie about this.

[copper223]

i basically said "ope, never mind, here's the analysis", so why are you taking umbrage with that?

Because I am tired after working for a long long time not having yet grabbed a bite and your comment, after I took the time to try and start to solve this game instead of throwing around scum reads just annoyed the heck out of me and made me think you are possibly being disingenuous to keep your options open.

[copper223]

i think you either omitted it ON PURPOSE or you didn't notice at all, and yuo're trying to cover up after the fact.

lowell is clearly not gonna ask you about it, and i would not have noticed except i wanted specifically to see what you thought of lowell camping. i might not have even noticed it at all. and i don't think you would have done anything.

scum points copper. i don't know why town would lie about this.

I missed this part of the gem.

How am I covering it up when I just said I did not notice I had forgotten to write my thoughts on him until I had already posted? What is the benefit in me saying I noticed after posting as scum?

You have a scum read on Lowell and are the only one that seems interested in that slot so I'd certainly expect you to pay attention (as you have) if that read is real.

[Ircher]

i was saying unless you think (as you appeared to, in #2525) that there's only one scum team, and no serial killer, you must therefore believe town has two separate vigilantes

"I was saying

unless

you thing (...) that there's only

one

scum team, and

no

serial killer, you

must therefore believe town has

two separate

vigilantes"

It makes zero sense. First of all, I'm assuming multiball. I never said I wasn't. Second of all, if I thought there was only one faction kill (Mafia, no Werewolfs or SK), then it would be reasonable to expect two town vigs to account for the kills. The keyword here however is UNLESS : He says that assuming two town vigs is normal if the game does have multiple kill sources.

So, @Shotty - Don't be telling me I'm not reading; his word choice is way off, super ambiguous, and makes the entire statement illogical. 3 NK's does not mean 2 Vigs, Mafia, and Were/SK kill. Cuz, 1+1+1+1=4.

[Nahdia]

when did i say i was dropping the magna read b4 that.

When you did nothing further with it.

i had other stuff to push

[zakk]

i basically said "ope, never mind, here's the analysis", so why are you taking umbrage with that?

Because I am tired after working for a long long time not having yet grabbed a bite and your comment, after I took the time to try and start to solve this game instead of throwing around scum reads just annoyed the heck out of me and made me think you are possibly being disingenuous to keep your options open.

that's very fair. i'm trying to do the same now actually.

[Egg]

Page 67:
Ok, Copper calling a policy lynch a standard thing feels off. I've seen very few policy lynches go through unless you count VIs who do scummy things and people actually thinking they are scum. Also, ETL is far from the type of player who gets policy lynched. I kind of wonder if he was trying to refuel the Titus vs ETL fight. Momentum was starting to shift to Persivul. Maybe I'm overthinking but is it possible he didn't want a neighbor lynch because it would narrow the pool? Meh. Quick skim of his ISO shows he voted both Persivul and Magna after this post so I'm probably on the wrong track. I mean it feels off but I'm not sure why. I might just be confirmation biasing because of the whole "there has to be a scum neighbor" thing.

Wtf? Titus, how are killthestory and Lowell "strong voices" in the game? Were you just trying to convince people to vote Persival or do you actually believe that?

Magna, yeah if there are two scum teams I could see one from each being in the neighborhood. However, it was Day 1 so I was ignoring that possibility in order to vote the scummiest person possible (I should add that I think we obviously failed at that). Looking at last night's kills, I don't suspect multiple scum teams yet. It's possible of course, but my guess is scum killed ETL and the other two kills were a vig and a SK trying to look like a vig. It's entirely possible that killthestory or Brawl was one scum team trying to kill the other but until we get a scum flip with some kind of faction name or something, I'll work with the assumption that we only have one scum team to deal with. Because of that, I'm not even close to assuming more than one scum in the neighborhood. I'm currently thinking 0-1.

Page 68:
Not sure if I've said so already but zakk's push to specifically NOT lynch Persivul is very town.

Titus, you called the Persivul wagon "all town" as a reason for people to vote him. Hopefully you've re-evaluated on some of those reads or at least realized that scum probably jumped on at some point.

Page 69:
Wtf? Didn't see zakk's 180 coming. Something keeps telling me he's obvtown but then he makes me doubt myself. It's frustrating because there are clear differences between his scum game I just saw and this one and he should be easy for me to read but he isn't.

Page 70:
Not loving Lowell's push to end the day. Not simply because he wants to end the day, but his tone while doing so. It feels...urgent. Like if we don't hurry up and do it, momentum might shift. If Lowell is scum, he probably has a buddy who may have been lynched instead of Persivul (Brawl? zakk?). Unfortunately, no one who I am scumreading seems to fit the bill but if my reads were perfect, would I still be alive? Also on Lowell, the way he refuses to restate his reads real quick rubs me the wrong way too.