Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over


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Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:27 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1198, Ranger wrote:
mhsmith wrote:I think ranger is smart enough to know how to vomit up fake cases as wolf.
You actually know from first-hand experience. You read
all
of 635 when you replaced in there, right? Including the end of D1? I cased on every player there.

That was actually a scumtell, not that anyone from that game picked up on it. I laid out all my cards on the table, for the town cred it'd gain me. This is what I do as town instead: bait players with
half
my hand, but not revealing the whole thing. It lures people in.
I did read it all, but I kinda skimmed parts. IIRC I'd filed you down as "yep she's hard claiming doc on d1, and behaviorally seems consistent with that" and didn't especially focus on you. I ended up focusing more on rc for all the good it did me :cry: - though at least the ending to the game was pretty funny.
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Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:31 pm

Post by PantherPunt »

In post 858, BTD6_maker wrote:People are posting so much in this game I almost suspect scum spamming.

Anyway, I will be free on Saturday (GMT) to do a full in-depth analysis of everyone's posts.
In post 1145, BTD6_maker wrote:I'm preparing my analysis. Expect eleven walls of deep Iso of every player.

I will only consider up to Page 40 for now (1000 posts).
In post 1153, BTD6_maker wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 3, Ranger wrote:You gonna delete my ninja postin?
In post 5, Ranger wrote:We're in your game.
Stealin' your posting'.
I find it highly unlikely that this is a deliberate signal by either Traitor (to tell Mafia to pick a ninja) or Mafia (to tell Traitor that they have a ninja). Of course, this does not immediately rule out the possibility of Ranger being scum.
In post 168, Ranger wrote:
Dunnstral wrote:How did you get a read on Shadow_Step on page 1?
Two sources.
First, mod error. Shadow_step replaced in for a slot who, as Persivul explicitly said, did not pick up their role PMs. If the slot were scum, then we wouldn't have had scum choose the setup.
Second, and using less controversial logic, didn't look like an RVS vote on a scumbuddy.
Alpaca wrote:so assuming thats correct what do you think of Flores townreading Dunn?
Eh, nobody's perfect.
Dunnstral wrote:Like I'm expecting ranger to come in here and say that list was a reaction test and post a real list
What people don't seem to realize is that my readslists are
both
real
and
reaction tests. That's the genius behind them, which Ranger imitators fail to understand. ^_^
If you have genuine reads, what do you expect the reactions to be?
In post 646, Ranger wrote:
duppin wrote:It seemed more like you just trying to get behind an easy wagon (assuming town flip).
Been there, done that, got the t-shirt, wore it out.

I vote for, and pursue, scum. I also proceed through the thread page by page, usually marked by some obvious sign of where I am. (E.g. "one", "two", "8" translating to "this is through page 1/2/8" respectively.) This is a pattern, town and scum, consistent through almost all of my games. (
Almost
. There's been one or two times I've lurked as scum and read current content while pretending not to. Shockingly, I died in both games. Imagine that! I died for pretending.) I could not have known there was a wagon on ploben when catching up, until I actually saw there was a wagon on ploben.

I would vote scum regardless of whether I'd be the first or fifth vote. You're not
entirely
off-base though. One reason I voted ploben
was
because there's a wagon there. My vote wouldn't do much good if I was the only voter on, say, PantherPunt. Still, in spite of that, my point remains true. I don't care about how "easy" a lynch looks. Ever since my first game here, which you were in, I've known better. The SK was an easy lynch. The three scum? Eventually, easy lynches. In Suikoden, two of the three scum (who I immediately scumread) were easy lynches. They were still scum, and I still lynched them.

Opportunism is, in fact, something entirely absent from my scum game. I
avoid
easy lynches like the plague. They terrify me! Because they're easy, because the players on them will look bad when the player flips town (and I know that player will be flipping town), I fight them, and go for harder targets. It's win-win. If I succeed, I mislynch a stronger player. If I fail, then I get free town credit for fighting against the lynch.

So, ploben is no easy mislynch. ploben is just plain scum.
There is just one problem I have with this. You said that scum Ranger avoids easy lynches. It seems like you may be trying to use self-meta and go for a true easy lynch, justifying it and then subsequently having a scumbuddy point out that you were opportunistic. It's just a possibility, and not terribly likely at that. Other than that, I get a Town feel from this post.
In post 657, Ranger wrote:
Dunnstral wrote:Nothing you wrote makes me want to consider your scum reads as viable lynches
Well no
duh
.
You're one of them.

Regardless of your alignment, I wouldn't be able to convince you to lynch yourself.
You're not pushing your scum read.
I've pushed all my reads almost equally, town and scum. The only difference is that I deliberately held off on making my scum cases. That's literally the singular difference between my push on my scumreads, and my push defending my townreads, e.g. karnos.
You'll act like you have been but you're clearly not attempting to get any votes or do anything
The game opened Sunday, June 5th.
It is currently early morning on Thursday, June 9th. Pragmatically, that's 3 days of content.

Why would I need to at this stage?

If I push, I don't push for lulz. I don't push to pressure. When I push...I push to
lynch
.
So tell me.
When we're over three days into the game, heading towards our fourth, out of a given two weeks...
When we've used just about 25% of the time in the game.
Why would I be trying to get a lynch right here, right now?

No. It's not needed for another three days. Even then, that's sometimes considered early. Everything I give prior to that is me being extra-generous. (With the exception of the karnos case.) I didn't need to explain any of my reads because we're not at the stage of the game where I would need to push my reads. I chose to give some, but I also chose
not
to give some.
Dunnstral wrote:So you're arguing that kuroi is town because Panther and I were pushing him?
Yes. BECAUSE,
There's only 3 scum in the game.
Of ^this. There's only three. I have a very, very,
very
strong {ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt} scumteam. It's not just individual posts, either, it's also your buddy-buddy reactions and trivial questions to each other that you never bother to follow through on. Given that, and your push on Kuroi, it's basically impossible for him to be scum, even though his posting contains basically nothing town.
Such a strong read is almost certainly wrong. Statistically there is less than a 0.5% chance of you being correct. How can your read be so strong?

(Although you did list four scum in Open 638 that included both me and my Werewolf partner - you were Mafia yourself)
In post 864, Ranger wrote:
PantherPunt wrote:She acknowledges that there are pages worth of content since then. She doesn't acknowledge that she's using that information to inform her reads. She said she had me and Dunn near the bottom earlier on, and she is going to make cases on us when she's in the mood (assumingly off of content that causes her to put as that bottom as well as the "pages worth of content" since she made the read).
Your point being?

When I make a case, I make a case off of all (or at least, most--sometimes I exclude content which I have gone into great length in my commentaries, as it'd be redundant) content, past (prior to stating a read), present (during the time of the read), and relative-future (content given after the read). This gives the full portrait of the player. I explain what caused the read. I explain why that read continued to exist. I then also explain why I continue to uphold it. Or, in the rare cases where I've had a change of opinion off of the content posted between my reads and my case (it
does
happen!), I explain why I'm
not
continuing that read.

This is, frankly, the one and only logical way to present a case.
1) You say you provide reasons when asked. You were asked and you didn't.
I provided most of my reasons when asked, along with a promise to deliver the other asked reasons at a later date. A delay in giving content is not an absence of ability to produce content.
2) I am aware that you have, in the past, posted read lists with no thought process as town, yes. You are construing this into a logical fallacy whereby I called you lock scum for that reason. When you, yourself, acknowledge that you open games that way as both town and scum.

You scumreading ME on the basis that I should KNOW you're CAPABLE of posting read lists without thought processes as town is, simply put, laughable
Again, you're misconstruing the point I'm making.

The entirety of your push against me was "Ranger has not produced content".
This was your stated reason for suspecting me.
Inherent to that is a necessity, a MUST, that you then HAVE to believe
the act of not giving content is scummy
. This is a simple truth.

My point is that you have
seen me not giving content as town
, and therefore the basis of your read is BS that you KNOW is BS. You pushed something you know is a nulltell, as if it were a scumtell.
How would you expect me to read you as town when you devote time to fluffing it up but you won't devote time to solving the game.
One, prior to giving my reasons for most of my reads, off of my lists. I am held accountable for every read I make, be it town or scum. This is one reason why Florestan is basically the only player attacking/voting me that I
don't
hold issue with, because this is what Florestan did: looked at my readslist, disagreed with the reads, and come to the conclusion I must be scum because of them.

Two, after giving my reasons for most of my reads, off of them.
I have not explained a grand total of six reads:
One, Chip Butty, wasted effort given the near-universal townread on him, yet who I specifically said I'd explain if I was asked to anyway. Nobody has.
Two, BTD6, a nulltownread, who I specifically say there's not much TO read. I also said I'd explain if I was asked to.
Three, duppin, a nullread, who I went into the generals of by pointing out the basis of my read, but not the specifics. I also offered to explain if I was asked to. As per the above two, nobody has.
Four, five, and six, my three scumreads, who I deliberately held off on explaining.

That's five reads I've gone into lengths about you can read me on, three reads you can ASK me to go on about, one which I already half-explained and a second which I partially-explained. In short, basically almost every player, except for three. You can read me off of all of that.

You're choosing not to.
Kuroi wrote:If she nailed all scum, then everyone else is scum by elimination, and she only mentioned me.
The reason for this is simple: I'm
not
scumreading the other players. (Save Scott, who is nullscum.) The other players were also not relevant to the current discussion, whereas you were. And you are a scumread. I just don't think you're actually scum, because there can be only three scum. If I was wrong on any of my core three, I'd immediately be looking into their interactions with you and vice-versa to see if you fit as a scumbuddy.
PantherPunt wrote:Are you even reading posts prior to giving your made up interpretations?
I do admit I skim a little, and did not see the second-to-last line. I skipped straight from the paragraph to the conclusion, missing that line altogether. The other line you highlight I do not see as saying ploben must be town, because it still follows from his prior statement and point.

Regardless, this is now irrelevant. I stand by my statement on Shadow being town, and I stand by my assessment of liking his push on Alpaca (now Kuroi). This is not diminished by his apparently townread on ploben. He does not need to see everything I see, have every read I do, in order for me to think that his push is immensely town.
This poost gives me a Town feel. I can understand the logic clearly and she seems to make sense. I get why you may not always want to explain scumreads (if you do then scum may change their behaviour to become less scummy and hide from you).
In post 904, Ranger wrote:
PantherPunt wrote:You said you town read her for disagreeing with your list.
That's not what I said.

I said it was the
way
Florestan treated my list.

Florestan was the
only
player, and I do mean
only
player, who treated my lists as I expect someone to treat my lists: reading them off of their content. Florestan's reads are nearly opposite of mine. Florestan apparently holds the belief my reads should be good. Florestan, as town, who holds reads, will presumably hold a similar philosophy towards reading to me: assuming
they
are right. Under Florestan's belief, that they are right, and Ranger should be a good player, yet Ranger's reads are opposite of theirs, it would naturally follow from a town perspective to be suspicious of (and eventually vote) me.
Don't you expect more from her? She's more analytical and has a lot more to say as town, wouldn't you say?
This is my first game with Florestan. It's horrible to say that I suspect Florestan's an alt, but unless Florestan explicitly says that, I'm going to assume it is in fact Florestan's first game with me. So I would have no way of saying.
Of course, believing in your reads does not mean that anyone who disagrees is scummy, but I will get on to that in Florestan's analysis.
In post 950, Ranger wrote:
PantherPunt wrote:Ranger brushing off 764 as fluff is slightly baffling
is a post you made, containing three questions addressed to Kuroi.
These questions did nothing to alter my opinion on Kuroi.
These questions did nothing to alter my opinion on you.
That post, therefore, did nothing to alter my views at all.

And is therefore fluff.
Any post, regardless of whether it is meant as content or not, which does not influence my viewpoint of a player is a fluff post, because by virtue of not influencing my viewpoint of a player, it is a post that I could skip and be none the worse for it. It doesn't matter if you're posting picture of bunnies or if you're asking questions that don't mean anything to me; both are equally as much fluff, because they aren't relevant to my reads. They're meaningless. Empty. Fruitless. Fluff.
Just because you don't use something in your reads doesn't mean no one will.


I didn't have all that much to say here, mostly because I haven't analysed anyone else yet. Overall, a weak townread.
Good job good effort....

(Mean anything he only did ranger? And half assed it?)
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Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:35 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

I like how he basically disagreed with everything in his analysis but Ranger ended up weak town read anyway

Also "deep iso" isn't how I'd describe that. Doesn't look like he took what other people were saying into account either
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Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:52 pm

Post by karnos »

I kinda hate the way the game is going right now. It's like the townies are slowly being worn down by persistent scum who are willing to try to vote down any townie, testing them one at a time.
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Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 4:54 pm

Post by karnos »

Ranger (5) - pantherpunt, florestan, dunnstral, duppin, ploben (L-2)

My 3 picks for scum on the wagon.

Rangers 3 picks for scum on the wagon.

Aren't chip's 3 picks for scum on the wagon as well?

It's odd how they were all happy to lynch me a couple days ago, and now they all want to lynch ranger. Whats next, after ranger is everyone going to switch and try to lynch kuroi?
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Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:01 pm

Post by Florestan »

Can you give a reason for those reads instead of just repeating it over and over again.
"Quoint a quincidence! O.K. Omnius Kollidimus. As Ollover Krumwall sayed when he slepped ueber his grannyamother."
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Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:11 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1204, karnos wrote:after ranger is everyone going to switch and try to lynch kuroi?
Yes
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Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:12 pm

Post by karnos »

In post 1205, Florestan wrote:Can you give a reason for those reads instead of just repeating it over and over again.
They were given long ago. If you didn't agree then, you won't agree now.

That said, I'll switch votes becuase I think this is the most sure scum at this point:

VOTE: dunnstral
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Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:42 pm

Post by PantherPunt »

In post 1206, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1204, karnos wrote:after ranger is everyone going to switch and try to lynch kuroi?
Yes
Lol I read that post and was gonna make the same reply
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Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:00 pm

Post by Ranger »

PantherPunt wrote:(Mean anything he only did ranger? And half assed it?)
Can't quite understand what you're saying here.
But if you're saying, "Is this satisfactory?" The answer is no. It is not. I want a LOT more from BTD6.
Florestan wrote:Can you give a reason for those reads instead of just repeating it over and over again.
After we have content from BTD6 and mhsmith that satisfies me.
Quite the RANGE.
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
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"Ranger's been town in most of them."
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Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:03 pm

Post by Florestan »

Holy shit its been 6 days how have you not made a case yet.
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Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:07 pm

Post by Ranger »

Florestan wrote:Holy shit its been 6 days how have you not made a case yet.
I have!

On almost every player!
Quite the RANGE.
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
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Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:08 pm

Post by Florestan »

EXCEPT THE ONE I WANTED ><
"Quoint a quincidence! O.K. Omnius Kollidimus. As Ollover Krumwall sayed when he slepped ueber his grannyamother."
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Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:11 pm

Post by Ranger »

Florestan wrote:EXCEPT THE ONE I WANTED ><
You asked for duppin and Dunnstral, both.

I gave you duppin.
Quite the RANGE.
"Interestingly though, town winrate in Blitzes has been really high."
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Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:14 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 1209, Ranger wrote:
PantherPunt wrote:(Mean anything he only did ranger? And half assed it?)
Can't quite understand what you're saying here.
But if you're saying, "Is this satisfactory?" The answer is no. It is not. I want a LOT more from BTD6.
Florestan wrote:Can you give a reason for those reads instead of just repeating it over and over again.
After we have content from BTD6 and mhsmith that satisfies me.
"content"
OK I'm done :P

more seriously, I'm turboing tonight, will read more tomorrow.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:30 pm

Post by PantherPunt »

Re:1209 I was wondering if there is significance behind the fact he'd do 11 isos and proceeded to only do a ranger ISO, do it half assed, and ptfo

I'm wondering if it makes him more likely scum with ranger
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Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:48 pm

Post by itlepip »

No you didn't.
Predictable, really I suppose. It was an act of purest optimism to have posed the question in the first place.

"Show him the fucking bread"
-Ether June 12, 2016, at 11:14 pm EST
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Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:49 pm

Post by Florestan »

In post 1216, itlepip wrote:No you didn't.
Holy fuck why do I even try to create alts, how do you do it...
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Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:57 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

Alright Karnos you're stubborn if nothing else.

Do you really see Ranger and Kuroi as both town, buying into Ranger's scum theory?

I actually want to revisit this:
In post 739, karnos wrote:
In post 730, ploben wrote:
In post 727, PantherPunt wrote:Why does Ranger make sense if Chip and Karnos are town? It's just not instantly occurring to me.
I think I'm an easy mislynch today so scum could vote me with that stupid IC thing as justification. If the first two voters on my wagon are town then Ranger coming in as 3rd is a good spot for scum to park their vote on a townie.
You have 3 votes, 7 are required to lynch. If ranger is scum, then you need the other two scum plus 2 townies to vote you in addition to the votes you already have. I think your fear of being quick lynched is unfounded. Town should understand that hammering without delay shows as incredibly scummy, and scum wouldn't trade a scum life for one lynch.
PantherPunt wrote:
In post 732, karnos wrote:
In post 722, ploben wrote: Is there any player in this game who could flip scum and clear me as town in your mind?
Not in this setup, because of the potential existence of a traitor role. I'm not saying I could never regard you as "likely town", but a singular scum flip in the absence of any other change wouldn't clear you on it's own.
Imagine that the person who flips in the scenario is an unrecruited traitor. Answer in that context
BTD - wouldn't clear, but would add some reasonable doubt
duppin/Dranstral - fits with my most likely scum team theory, so no.
Chip Butty - yes, sure. if he flipped as scum, I'd have to seriously reconsider the case on ploben.

others- might increase doubt a little bit, but I wouldn't say "clear"
What if Ranger flips scum? Who would you think is mafia in that scenario?

Conversely, who would you think is town?

Special mention I want to hear about Kuroi, but everyone else is important too
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Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:58 pm

Post by Dunnstral »

In post 1215, PantherPunt wrote:Re:1209 I was wondering if there is significance behind the fact he'd do 11 isos and proceeded to only do a ranger ISO, do it half assed, and ptfo

I'm wondering if it makes him more likely scum with ranger
Kind of seems too obvious like if I were scum I wouldn't just do it on ranger then disappear

Speaking of which I didn't realize he was gonna do 1 iso per day LMAO
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Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:05 pm

Post by Chip Butty »

In post 1204, karnos wrote: Aren't chip's 3 picks for scum on the wagon as well?

It's odd how they were all happy to lynch me a couple days ago, and now they all want to lynch ranger. Whats next, after ranger is everyone going to switch and try to lynch kuroi?
Yes, they are - although kuroi and BTD are not far outside my top 3.

I've also noted the concerted push on Karnos, which seems to have turned into a concerted push on Ranger. There DOES seem to be an effort to control the game by a certain prolifically-posting bloc - whether for good or ill, time will tell. I know that I have won as scum before in a game where I was the most prolific poster by a large margin, and my scummates weren't exactly shy either, so I don't think it is quite as far-fetched as some in that bloc would have us believe.

Anyway, I have no problem waiting for mhsmith to file his report, then waiting for Ranger to present her cases. We still have plenty of time left in D1. Would be nice if duppin manages to put in an appearance soon, even if by phone, but we have to accept that might not happen. Again, I can't see ANY Town motivation in wanting to push ahead with a Ranger lynch before she has stated her cases. She has stated the conditions for which she is waiting, so what's the rush?
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Chip Butty
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Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:06 pm

Post by Chip Butty »

I also agree that we need more from BTD, and that that wasn't a deep ISO of Ranger. His input is looking more and more bizarre.
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Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:10 pm

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Chip I'd like to extend the same question I just asked Karnos to you - about who would be more or less likely scum if Ranger flipped scum
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Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:24 pm

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In post 1220, Chip Butty wrote:I know that I have won as scum before in a game where I was the most prolific poster by a large margin
So you're saying you post a lot as both scum and town, right?

So how come it's being used as a case like "these people ar escum because they're all posting a lot together" especially when you're right on the outskirts of that

It's just dumb. I post a loooooooot in every game

In fact I've kind of been feeling like I was obvious town this game and it's just You, karnos (who as far as I'm concerned, is still in question regarding alignment), and scum ranger who would vote me

I've noted a concerted push on Ploben, There seems to be a bit on controlling the game by a certain-minded bloc, whether for good or ill, time will tell (after this lynch when ranger flips scum and you look silly and karnos declares the game lost because Ranger wasn't town)
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Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:28 pm

Post by Chip Butty »

@Dunnstral: Good question, and I am not sure I can give anything but a surface-level reply atm - possibe buddying, possible distancing, all that. I feel like I will be in a better position to move forward when we see what Ranger has to say. Plus, whatever bad blood there is between Panther and her is obscuring things a bit too. I can see some of the stuff you point to re:Ranger, but it's certainly not a lock at this point. The surface-level reply, btw, is that those who are on her case/ whom she is after would look better, while those who support her, or who she reads as Town, would look worse. But we all know it isn't as simple as that...

You and Panther really do look like you are operating as a team. If you are Town, are you really that sure of him? Why/why not?
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