Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[Chip Butty]

I'm not saying prolific posting is AI in itself, precisely because I DO post a lot both as Town and scum. But it did leap out at me that my three top scum picks were the three most prolific posters in this game. I guess it leapt out at me because I'm pretty much ALWAYS the most prolific poster. So, I noted it, and I don't think it is a terrible strategy for scum: The proof of that is that nobody seems to be too excited about this kind of thing. So, if you, Panther, and plobemn ARE scum and trying to dominate the game narrative just by posting heaps, you are pretty much getting away with it atm.

[Chip Butty]

Also, please stop referring to Ranger's lynch as if it is a fait accompli; it is not. There are only three scum, so if Ranger is Town, they will need to sucker a few Town into voting her as well.

[Dunnstral]

He was in my Newbie game and town there and he posted a lot so I had a lot of content to work with

Think he's been super town in general this game and would be really surprised if he were mafia

You're free to check out my newbie game if you'd like but it's super long and I'm not sure it's needed.

Can I get a reply that's deeper than surface level later? Remember that there is a mafia traitor in the setup so she flips as a goon she

probably

wouldn't know who the traitor was (I've been looking for traitor signals and hadn't seen any, don't think ones coming)

I'm not saying prolific posting is AI in itself, precisely because I DO post a lot both as Town and scum. But it did leap out at me that my three top scum picks were the three most prolific posters in this game. I guess it leapt out at me because I'm pretty much ALWAYS the most prolific poster. So, I noted it, and I don't think it is a terrible strategy for scum: The proof of that is that nobody seems to be too excited about this kind of thing. So, if you, Panther, and plobemn ARE scum and trying to dominate the game narrative just by posting heaps, you are pretty much getting away with it atm.

OK but if we're town, what does us posting heaps do?

Carry the town?

Well, we're all on Ranger so guess we'll find out

We can compare post counts with mafia/town in post-game

Also, please stop referring to Ranger's lynch as if it is a fait accompli; it is not. There are only three scum, so if Ranger is Town, they will need to sucker a few Town into voting her as well.

I'm interested in hearing if you think Ranger would be bussed and who it would be in a deeper level reply!

[Dunnstral]

I've got my own thoughts on that (the Ranger bus thing) but I'll hold onto those for now so i can get replies from you and Karnos

[Chip Butty]

Can I get a reply that's deeper than surface level later? Remember that there is a mafia traitor in the setup so she flips as a goon she

probably

wouldn't know who the traitor was (I've been looking for traitor signals and hadn't seen any, don't think ones coming)
...
I'm interested in hearing if you think Ranger would be bussed and who it would be in a deeper level reply!

Yes, of course. But prob abfter Ranger does her bit. I just feel I need to see what she has to say if I am going to be able to make sense of this game. It's fairly complex now, as far as interactions go. I haven't seen any clear traitor comms either (unless it was Ranger's ninja stuff ) but scum know we are looking for it, so they might be on radio silence now. If they have communicated, it's prob before I posted the tinfoil hat theory.

But don't you think no traitor signals could be a sign of recruitment? Why do you say scum.Ranger prob wouldn't know who the traitor is? It seems to me the opposite is likely. Do you know more than you are letting on?

[Dunnstral]

But don't you think no traitor signals could be a sign of recruitment? Why do you say scum.Ranger prob wouldn't know who the traitor is? It seems to me the opposite is likely.

I can't deny that recruitment is a possibility, but it could also just be that there was actually no reason for them to communicate in the first place. Like for example someone that was never pressured wouldn't need to communicate whereas someone being voted like karnos or ploben were early on are more likely to signal

Do you know more than you are letting on?

I was just asking you to consider it that way for the bussing part

I guess I'll just give my thoughts on that now, I don't think the mafia would want to bus right now, at least not yet. It seems like Ranger really doesn't intend to get lynched today, and the sheer amount of

resistance

to this lynch that pops up (there's an oddly large amount of that for Ranger but not a lot of good reasoning behind it) makes me lean partners not bussing, kuroi other maf, last maf someone not on the wagon, easy game

[Dunnstral]

prob abfter Ranger does her bit.

Keep in mind that if she says 4 days from now it probably means 6.5 days

[BTD6_maker]

People are posting so much in this game I almost suspect scum spamming.

Anyway, I will be free on Saturday (GMT) to do a full in-depth analysis of everyone's posts.

I'm preparing my analysis. Expect eleven walls of deep Iso of every player.

I will only consider up to Page 40 for now (1000 posts).

Spoiler:

You gonna delete my ninja postin?

We're in your game.
Stealin' your posting'.

I find it highly unlikely that this is a deliberate signal by either Traitor (to tell Mafia to pick a ninja) or Mafia (to tell Traitor that they have a ninja). Of course, this does not immediately rule out the possibility of Ranger being scum.

How did you get a read on Shadow_Step on page 1?

Two sources.
First, mod error. Shadow_step replaced in for a slot who, as Persivul explicitly said, did not pick up their role PMs. If the slot were scum, then we wouldn't have had scum choose the setup.
Second, and using less controversial logic, 17 didn't look like an RVS vote on a scumbuddy.

so assuming thats correct what do you think of Flores townreading Dunn?

Eh, nobody's perfect.

Like I'm expecting ranger to come in here and say that list was a reaction test and post a real list

What people don't seem to realize is that my readslists are

both

real

and

reaction tests. That's the genius behind them, which Ranger imitators fail to understand. ^_^

If you have genuine reads, what do you expect the reactions to be?

It seemed more like you just trying to get behind an easy wagon (assuming town flip).

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt, wore it out.

I vote for, and pursue, scum. I also proceed through the thread page by page, usually marked by some obvious sign of where I am. (E.g. "one", "two", "8" translating to "this is through page 1/2/8" respectively.) This is a pattern, town and scum, consistent through almost all of my games. (

Almost

. There's been one or two times I've lurked as scum and read current content while pretending not to. Shockingly, I died in both games. Imagine that! I died for pretending.) I could not have known there was a wagon on ploben when catching up, until I actually saw there was a wagon on ploben.

I would vote scum regardless of whether I'd be the first or fifth vote. You're not

entirely

off-base though. One reason I voted ploben

was

because there's a wagon there. My vote wouldn't do much good if I was the only voter on, say, PantherPunt. Still, in spite of that, my point remains true. I don't care about how "easy" a lynch looks. Ever since my first game here, which you were in, I've known better. The SK was an easy lynch. The three scum? Eventually, easy lynches. In Suikoden, two of the three scum (who I immediately scumread) were easy lynches. They were still scum, and I still lynched them.

Opportunism is, in fact, something entirely absent from my scum game. I

avoid

easy lynches like the plague. They terrify me! Because they're easy, because the players on them will look bad when the player flips town (and I know that player will be flipping town), I fight them, and go for harder targets. It's win-win. If I succeed, I mislynch a stronger player. If I fail, then I get free town credit for fighting against the lynch.

So, ploben is no easy mislynch. ploben is just plain scum.

There is just one problem I have with this. You said that scum Ranger avoids easy lynches. It seems like you may be trying to use self-meta and go for a true easy lynch, justifying it and then subsequently having a scumbuddy point out that you were opportunistic. It's just a possibility, and not terribly likely at that. Other than that, I get a Town feel from this post.

Nothing you wrote makes me want to consider your scum reads as viable lynches

Well no

duh

.
You're one of them.

Regardless of your alignment, I wouldn't be able to convince you to lynch yourself.

You're not pushing your scum read.

I've pushed all my reads almost equally, town and scum. The only difference is that I deliberately held off on making my scum cases. That's literally the singular difference between my push on my scumreads, and my push defending my townreads, e.g. karnos.

You'll act like you have been but you're clearly not attempting to get any votes or do anything

The game opened Sunday, June 5th.
It is currently early morning on Thursday, June 9th. Pragmatically, that's 3 days of content.

Why would I need to at this stage?

If I push, I don't push for lulz. I don't push to pressure. When I push...I push to

lynch

.
So tell me.
When we're over three days into the game, heading towards our fourth, out of a given two weeks...
When we've used just about 25% of the time in the game.
Why would I be trying to get a lynch right here, right now?

No. It's not needed for another three days. Even then, that's sometimes considered early. Everything I give prior to that is me being extra-generous. (With the exception of the karnos case.) I didn't need to explain any of my reads because we're not at the stage of the game where I would need to push my reads. I chose to give some, but I also chose

not

to give some.

So you're arguing that kuroi is town because Panther and I were pushing him?

Yes. BECAUSE,

There's only 3 scum in the game.

Of ^this. There's only three. I have a very, very,

very

strong {ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt} scumteam. It's not just individual posts, either, it's also your buddy-buddy reactions and trivial questions to each other that you never bother to follow through on. Given that, and your push on Kuroi, it's basically impossible for him to be scum, even though his posting contains basically nothing town.

Such a strong read is almost certainly wrong. Statistically there is less than a 0.5% chance of you being correct. How can your read be so strong?

(Although you did list four scum in Open 638 that included both me and my Werewolf partner - you were Mafia yourself)

She acknowledges that there are pages worth of content since then. She doesn't acknowledge that she's using that information to inform her reads. She said she had me and Dunn near the bottom earlier on, and she is going to make cases on us when she's in the mood (assumingly off of content that causes her to put as that bottom as well as the "pages worth of content" since she made the read).

Your point being?

When I make a case, I make a case off of all (or at least, most--sometimes I exclude content which I have gone into great length in my commentaries, as it'd be redundant) content, past (prior to stating a read), present (during the time of the read), and relative-future (content given after the read). This gives the full portrait of the player. I explain what caused the read. I explain why that read continued to exist. I then also explain why I continue to uphold it. Or, in the rare cases where I've had a change of opinion off of the content posted between my reads and my case (it

does

happen!), I explain why I'm

not

continuing that read.

This is, frankly, the one and only logical way to present a case.

1) You say you provide reasons when asked. You were asked and you didn't.

I provided most of my reasons when asked, along with a promise to deliver the other asked reasons at a later date. A delay in giving content is not an absence of ability to produce content.

2) I am aware that you have, in the past, posted read lists with no thought process as town, yes. You are construing this into a logical fallacy whereby I called you lock scum for that reason. When you, yourself, acknowledge that you open games that way as both town and scum.

You scumreading ME on the basis that I should KNOW you're CAPABLE of posting read lists without thought processes as town is, simply put, laughable

Again, you're misconstruing the point I'm making.

The entirety of your push against me was "Ranger has not produced content".

This was your stated reason for suspecting me.

Inherent to that is a necessity, a MUST, that you then HAVE to believe

the act of not giving content is scummy

. This is a simple truth.

My point is that you have

seen me not giving content as town

, and therefore the basis of your read is BS that you KNOW is BS. You pushed something you know is a nulltell, as if it were a scumtell.

How would you expect me to read you as town when you devote time to fluffing it up but you won't devote time to solving the game.

One, prior to giving my reasons for most of my reads, off of my lists. I am held accountable for every read I make, be it town or scum. This is one reason why Florestan is basically the only player attacking/voting me that I

don't

hold issue with, because this is what Florestan did: looked at my readslist, disagreed with the reads, and come to the conclusion I must be scum because of them.

Two, after giving my reasons for most of my reads, off of them.
I have not explained a grand total of six reads:
One, Chip Butty, wasted effort given the near-universal townread on him, yet who I specifically said I'd explain if I was asked to anyway. Nobody has.
Two, BTD6, a nulltownread, who I specifically say there's not much TO read. I also said I'd explain if I was asked to.
Three, duppin, a nullread, who I went into the generals of by pointing out the basis of my read, but not the specifics. I also offered to explain if I was asked to. As per the above two, nobody has.
Four, five, and six, my three scumreads, who I deliberately held off on explaining.

That's five reads I've gone into lengths about you can read me on, three reads you can ASK me to go on about, one which I already half-explained and a second which I partially-explained. In short, basically almost every player, except for three. You can read me off of all of that.

You're choosing not to.

If she nailed all scum, then everyone else is scum by elimination, and she only mentioned me.

The reason for this is simple: I'm

not

scumreading the other players. (Save Scott, who is nullscum.) The other players were also not relevant to the current discussion, whereas you were. And you are a scumread. I just don't think you're actually scum, because there can be only three scum. If I was wrong on any of my core three, I'd immediately be looking into their interactions with you and vice-versa to see if you fit as a scumbuddy.

Are you even reading posts prior to giving your made up interpretations?

I do admit I skim a little, and did not see the second-to-last line. I skipped straight from the paragraph to the conclusion, missing that line altogether. The other line you highlight I do not see as saying ploben must be town, because it still follows from his prior statement and point.

Regardless, this is now irrelevant. I stand by my statement on Shadow being town, and I stand by my assessment of liking his push on Alpaca (now Kuroi). This is not diminished by his apparently townread on ploben. He does not need to see everything I see, have every read I do, in order for me to think that his push is immensely town.

This poost gives me a Town feel. I can understand the logic clearly and she seems to make sense. I get why you may not always want to explain scumreads (if you do then scum may change their behaviour to become less scummy and hide from you).

You said you town read her for disagreeing with your list.

That's not what I said.

I said it was the

way

Florestan treated my list.

Florestan was the

only

player, and I do mean

only

player, who treated my lists as I expect someone to treat my lists: reading them off of their content. Florestan's reads are nearly opposite of mine. Florestan apparently holds the belief my reads should be good. Florestan, as town, who holds reads, will presumably hold a similar philosophy towards reading to me: assuming

they

are right. Under Florestan's belief, that they are right, and Ranger should be a good player, yet Ranger's reads are opposite of theirs, it would naturally follow from a town perspective to be suspicious of (and eventually vote) me.

Don't you expect more from her? She's more analytical and has a lot more to say as town, wouldn't you say?

This is my first game with Florestan. It's horrible to say that I suspect Florestan's an alt, but unless Florestan explicitly says that, I'm going to assume it is in fact Florestan's first game with me. So I would have no way of saying.

Of course, believing in your reads does not mean that anyone who disagrees is scummy, but I will get on to that in Florestan's analysis.

Ranger brushing off 764 as fluff is slightly baffling

764 is a post you made, containing three questions addressed to Kuroi.
These questions did nothing to alter my opinion on Kuroi.
These questions did nothing to alter my opinion on you.
That post, therefore, did nothing to alter my views at all.

And is therefore fluff.
Any post, regardless of whether it is meant as content or not, which does not influence my viewpoint of a player is a fluff post, because by virtue of not influencing my viewpoint of a player, it is a post that I could skip and be none the worse for it. It doesn't matter if you're posting picture of bunnies or if you're asking questions that don't mean anything to me; both are equally as much fluff, because they aren't relevant to my reads. They're meaningless. Empty. Fruitless. Fluff.

Just because you don't use something in your reads doesn't mean no one will.

I didn't have all that much to say here, mostly because I haven't analysed anyone else yet. Overall, a weak townread.

Good job good effort....

(Mean anything he only did ranger? And half assed it?)

I call Ranger a weak townread despite disagreeing as I read her as mistaken Town rather than lying scum.

Many other points will come up when I analyse the others. I am preparing the analysis and will post it today.

[Dunnstral]

Looking forward to it

[Chip Butty]

I've got my own thoughts on that (the Ranger bus thing) but I'll hold onto those for now so i can get replies from you and Karnos

It seems like a bit of a weird question. I don't think even scum know at this point if they will bus scum.Ranger. I would expect it would come down to the usual factors - seeming inevitability of the lynch; Towncred to be gained; risk of being seen to have opportunistically hopped on; etc.

Scum is scum: if they see more value in bussing scum.Ranger than in her continued existence, they will bus.

But you seem to be asking as if you think there are special circumstances in this case? Why?

[Dunnstral]

I've got my own thoughts on that (the Ranger bus thing) but I'll hold onto those for now so i can get replies from you and Karnos

It seems like a bit of a weird question. I don't think even scum know at this point if they will bus scum.Ranger. I would expect it would come down to the usual factors - seeming inevitability of the lynch; Towncred to be gained; risk of being seen to have opportunistically hopped on; etc.

Scum is scum: if they see more value in bussing scum.Ranger than in her continued existence, they will bus.

But you seem to be asking as if you think there are special circumstances in this case? Why?

Just trying to get you to talk about what matters to me: who mafia is if Ranger is mafia

I don't know why everything has to be a weird question or knowing more than I should when I try to engage you

[Persivul]

Votecount 1.16

karnos (2) - BTD6, mhsmith
Ploben (2) - chip butty, ranger
KuroiXHF (1) - shadow
Ranger (5) - pantherpunt, florestan, dunnstral, duppin, ploben (L-2)
dunnstral (1) - karnos

Not voting (1) - kuroi

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

(expired on 2016-06-19 07:30:00) remain until day end

[PantherPunt]

Someone help me remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

[ploben]

Anyone else see a tone change latley in Chip's post? Like his stuborness is still there and his thought process is still there but I almost read this tone change as like calming, maybe not as frantic or defensive. I'm not sure what it means or if it means anything.

Just wanted to throw that observation out there.

[ploben]

@Panther
remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

[karnos]

@Panther
remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

I don't get what this means. Why don't you ask BTD yourself? Why is panther asking questions for you?

[PantherPunt]

@Panther
remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

I don't get what this means. Why don't you ask BTD yourself? Why is panther asking questions for you?

Someone help me remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

@Panther
remember to ask something about 1232 once btd gives more reads

Karnos.......bro..................

[ploben]

Hahaha, is that a total "gotcha!"? Is this game that easy?

[karnos]

Okay, so they are useless filler posts. I got it.

[ploben]

Okay, so they are useless filler posts. I got it.

Right. Kind of like your smart ass, passive aggressive posts like this one.

[KuroiXHF]

Okay, so they are useless filler posts. I got it.

Right. Kind of like your smart ass, passive aggressive posts like this one.

How does this help find scum?

[Shadow_step]

Okay, so they are useless filler posts. I got it.

Right. Kind of like your smart ass, passive aggressive posts like this one.

How does this help find scum?

It entices scum to ask the question :-
"How does this help find scum?"

[ploben]

For what it's worth...

Town (no particular order):

• Panther
  Dunnstral
  duppin
  Shadow
  Florestan

Scum (no particular order):

• Ranger
  BTD6
  karnos
  Kuroi

No f'ing clue:

• mhsmith

Frustrated with:

• Chip

[ploben]

So Karnos comes in to make sure he gets his digs in and post useless filler posts at 1240 and 1243 but just disregards an important 1218.

[ploben]

It's hard for me to see a world where there isn't at least 1 scum between karnos/chip. At the very least I don't want to see either in final 3.