Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[Kappy]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

Ranger also agreed to be lynched if IV was town. Makes you wonder how she knew he was scum, since she supposedly wasn't actually 100% sure.

Are we visiting your home country for the third time today?

what?

[BTD6_maker]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

Ranger also agreed to be lynched if IV was town. Makes you wonder how she knew he was scum, since she supposedly wasn't actually 100% sure.

Are we visiting your home country for the third time today?

what?

I noticed your Location.

[Kappy]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

Ranger also agreed to be lynched if IV was town. Makes you wonder how she knew he was scum, since she supposedly wasn't actually 100% sure.

Are we visiting your home country for the third time today?

what?

I noticed your Location.

oh yeah. Check out my occupation and interests on my profile page.

[innocentvillager]

He started off distancing Ranger whilst backing out of the wagon when it looked dangerous. Now he is defending Ranger and criticising the wagon that he was on himself. IV and Ranger seem a likely scumteam.

Protip: You will be wrong 95% of the time when you think you have the scumteam down, I promise it's never worth it to vote based on a scumteam hypothetical unless it's super obvious

I'm not sure how I missed this. He may be intentionally saying that to try to make Town think IV and Ranger is more unlikely than it really is. Back then I may have been 20% confident of this (very confident, given that a random pair has under 3% probability). Now I consider Ranger to be the most likely suspect for scum with IV.

That's an interesting theory you've got there

[AlpacaAlpaca]

This is one long twilight

[Music and Mail]

Oh wow I suck.
The "crumb" made me laugh though.

-- Mail

[Kappy]

Twilight is almost 8 hours long... This only makes sense in a world where days are 336 hours long.

[Quaroath]

Vote count 1.Lynch

BTD6_maker – (2) AlpacaAlpaca, Music and Mail

Innocentvillager – (5) drmyshottyizsik, Ranger, Alexcellent, Kappy, BTD6_maker

Music and Mail - (1) KickAssAndGiggle
drmyshottyizsik - (1) innocentvillager

Not Voting - (0)

With 9 eligible to vote, is takes 5 to lynch.

KickAssAndGiggle has not picked up his prop and will be replaced in the night.

Sickofit1138 replaced KickAssAndGiggle

Innocentvillager has been lynched

Sadly, he was as innocent as his name

InnocentVillager, Tree, has been lynched and will be a Sad Stump, from now on.

Night Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-10 20:00:00)

[Quaroath]

Sorry about the delayed start. No excuses all on me. I put the start in my calendar as tonight.

Whoops.

Day 2 dawns.

No one died in the night.

But we have a stump!

Vote count 2.1

Not Voting - (8) Alexcellent, AlpacaAlpaca, BTD6_maker, drmyshottyizsik, Kappy, Music and Mail, Ranger, Sickofit1138

With 8 eligible to vote, is takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in 6/25 @ 10pm PST

[innocentvillager]

My new town reads are BTD, Shotty.

Old ones that are still current for me are Kap and Ranger.

That leaves Alpaca, M&M, KAAG/sick, Alexcellent for my scum pile

Complete null read on KAAG and Alpaca, slight scumread on Alexcellent, not sure on M&M

[drmyshottyizsik]

VOTE: M&M

[Ranger]

By the way: I suggest treating every night as like a normal game, as if we had one player die.
This is for the worst-case scenario, in case all scum douses are successful.

So while we have 8 alive, treat today as if we have 7. And after the lynch today, 6. Unless scum ignite, treat tomorrow as having 5, and so on.

I'm willing to fulfill my promise today even if I was lying about my confidence if there's doubt about my alignment, but my thoughts are:
I really don't think shotty is scum. The logic he gave while doped up doesn't seem like something I'd expect him to post as scum. It felt a lot more like crazy town.
Alexcellent and Alpaca remain townreads.
BTD6 and Sickofit are both nullreads still.
I still hold suspicion on both Kappy and Music & Mail, but I'm not voting anyone yet until I have a much better grip on the game, sorry.

[innocentvillager]

@Ranger what do you think of BTD's responses after I scumclaimed? They looked pretty genuine to me, especially since they were done so quickly. Shotty's responses also reeked town, I couldn't read anyone else's post-scumclaim posts unfortunately

[BTD6_maker]

VOTE: Music and Mail

I now weakly scumread Ranger. I thought that Ranger was much more likely scum if IV flips scum but IV has flipped Town. Music and Mail is now my strongest scumread.

Ranger, when you promised to get lynched was that some sort of gambit? What was your purpose?

IV, why did you claim scum? From what I can see it was to have a chance at catching out the scum that know you are Town.

[Music and Mail]

VOTE: Ranger

-- Mail

[Music and Mail]

But, I have to be completely honest here.

I lied.

I wasn't 100% sure you were scum at all.

I was actually less sure about you than I was on Music and Mail! Especially with your later posting.

I was kinda afraid I'd be getting lynched tomorrow, and then we'd be in D3 with no assured scum leads, my credibility shot, and nothing to go on.

Hahahaha no you don't get off that easily you slippery snake.

-- Mail

[Kappy]

I lied.

I wasn't 100% sure you were scum at all.

I was actually less sure about you than I was on Music and Mail! Especially with your later posting.

Thinking about this, why didn't you say so before we stumped IV?

[Sickofit1138]

Scum reading a M&M an Ranger from my skim.

More coming later haven't had time to catch up yet.

[Music and Mail]

fuck yourselves.

[BTD6_maker]

Music is definitely scummier than Mail. Music/RC is extremely uncooperative, characteristic of his scum game in Newbie 1700. He refuses to help Town or even interact with those scumreading him, just as in Newbie 1700.

[Music and Mail]

or even interact with those scumreading him

That's generally a town!RC thing more than it is a scum!RC thing IIRC.

I can sort-of see where his frustration is coming from. I don't really understand any of the scumreads on us; I mean, at least one of them is probably a scum push, but not

everyone

FoSing/voting us can be scum. :L

-- Mail

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Music is definitely scummier than Mail. Music/RC is extremely uncooperative, characteristic of his scum game in Newbie 1700. He refuses to help Town or even interact with those scumreading him, just as in Newbie 1700.

On the contrary they seem to be heavily interacting with Ranger, but like only Ranger. They townread IV, but aside from scum reading Ranger and their one in the moment vote on you they haven't done much else.

[Kappy]

Wait, so M&M is a hydra? I didn't know that! I'm assuming RC is RedCoyote, who's Mail?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Or RadiantCowbells

[Kappy]

So RadiantCowbells and ...?