Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[Chip Butty]

So Karnos comes in to make sure he gets his digs in and post useless filler posts at 1240 and 1243 but just disregards an important 1218.

...says Mr 'What is your employment, what's your golf handicap?', LOL. You post more filler shit than anyone else in this game, so if you see that as AI, you are just calling yourself scum.

[ploben]

Scumbuddy to the rescue?

[Chip Butty]

Scott's got a few points I agree with and has since interactions and associations.

Thanks, but wading through all that minute detail is giving me a headache, so could you be a little more vague? /sarcasm

All Alpaca has done is defend me and not really provided any other content.

Reeeeeeallllllllly? If you see being focussed on defending you to the exclusion of all else as scummy, I would be FASCINATED to read your current view on your bud duppen, in the light of my ISO of him...

brb, I'm off to get some popcorn...

This is something I have been meaning to get back to for a while. ploben finds Alpaca suspicious for having done nothing else but defend ploben. But in my ISO of Duppin, I pointed out that he his posting history up until that point could be similarly described.

ploben, did we ever hear back to you re:your views on duppin up to the point of my ISO on him? If not, could you post them please?

[Dunnstral]

Karnos you ignored my question

[ploben]

Scott's got a few points I agree with and has since interactions and associations.

Thanks, but wading through all that minute detail is giving me a headache, so could you be a little more vague? /sarcasm

All Alpaca has done is defend me and not really provided any other content.

Reeeeeeallllllllly? If you see being focussed on defending you to the exclusion of all else as scummy, I would be FASCINATED to read your current view on your bud duppen, in the light of my ISO of him...

brb, I'm off to get some popcorn...

This is something I have been meaning to get back to for a while. ploben finds Alpaca suspicious for having done nothing else but defend ploben. But in my ISO of Duppin, I pointed out that he his posting history up until that point could be similarly described.

ploben, did we ever hear back to you re:your views on duppin up to the point of my ISO on him? If not, could you post them please?

Pretty sure you did.

[BTD6_maker]

Spoiler:

Still think karnos is a good vote. Making a big deal out of nothing (the claim) mixed in with the sheeping and the way he made sure to vote ranger first all feels incredibly scummy to me and I can't believe I'm the only one who's going to vote this

Whatever. I think I go through this at the start of every game. I don't play to the established meta, so I must be scum. Then after a half dozen pages of random BS, a few people think I sound more town. Then some more back and forth, and someone insists they were right all along and I'm scum. In the end, I end up wasting a lot of time making defensive posts instead of actually scum hunting in a more useful way.

If you think I am scum because I am willing to reveal my RVS vote as the empty charade it is, fine. Go ahead, lynch a townie because he isn't playing the same way you like to play. In the meantime I'm going to look for behavior that actually is scummy, and actually has a scum motivation behind it, and vote appropriately. For now, that involves voting on proben.

That seems rather defensive and also suggests self-meta, which can be easily used by scum to hide their scummy actions.

Currently my top reads for scum are Karnos and Chip Butty. Both seem to be placing undue significance onto Ploben's joke claim. It is possible that they are both scum coordinating their efforts for a Ploben lynch.

VOTE: Karnos

This is L-2. I am trying to get pressure on Karnos as a vote on Chip Butty would not accomplish much at this stage.

This is the scummiest single post I have seen in this thread. I can go into detail later, busy at work, but I'm sure any town player can come to the same conclusion as me if you just look at what BTD wrote above, his prior posting history in the thread, and the ongoing situation.

Ploben is certainly still on my radar as a potential scum, I don't like a lot of his posts, but I'm going to reconsider things.

UNVOTE: ploben

What makes you think "any town player" will agree with you and sheep you? You seem to be pushing on me and still trying to get a Ploben lynch (you revoted him). Here, though, the push on me came out of the blue. After one short post, I went straight to being your strongest scumread.

Currently my top reads for scum are Karnos and Chip Butty. Both seem to be placing undue significance onto Ploben's joke claim. It is possible that they are both scum coordinating their efforts for a Ploben lynch.

VOTE: Karnos

This is L-2. I am trying to get pressure on Karnos as a vote on Chip Butty would not accomplish much at this stage.

Okay, waiting for updates to install on a computer so I have a few minutes to explain.

1- The L-2 vote is the perfect jump-in point for scum. Scum doesn't want to be seen starting the wagon, and scum certainly doesn't want to be seen hammering. This in itself is a minor point, obviously every lynch must pass L-2 at some point, but the fact he announces it as L-2 just rubs me as a scum trying to push a wagon while acting careful.

2- BTD's ISO- seems to be coming out against Ranger in #171 #172... every scum player soon realizes Ranger is a threat, could have been testing the waters to see if he could get someone else to vote her. Fake townslip in #14.

3- Nothing original, just jumping on the wagon.

4- A personal understanding I have of BTD's play style. In my brief time here, 2 of my games were with BTD. One game we were both town, and in the other we were both scum. In both cases I found myself making very similar arguments to him. I think his style of play leads him to the same general conclusions as me, most of the time. Yet here he is, coming to just about the exact opposite conclusion as me in this game. I wonder why? Simplest explanation is that his play style is still the same as mine, but his victory condition is not the same as mine in this game. I am town, he is scum, thus the difference.

If you (as scum) say that scum do not want to start or hammer the wagon and that L-2 is ideal for scum, you will also ensure that none of your real scumbuddies will make the L-2 vote and ideally get them to hammer or start wagons.

Pointing out one thing about Ranger does not mean I consider her a threat to my scum self. Ranger is not perfect, even as Town. Perhaps you are defending Ranger here. It's just a possibility, as I already townread her.

Again, similar playstyles does not mean same conclusions. You came to the conclusion that I am scummy, and I came to the conclusion that you are scummy. That can happen even if we share similar playstyles.

There is a Town motivation to this, but there's more of a scum motivation.

Explain how you were not talking about buddying. Associations, at least when your association is something like "player x is town", isn't that the same as buddying?

No it's not.

Do you not understand what the word "explain" means? I guess as scum you can't explain your lies, so I won't see the explanation I was hoping to see.

2- BTD's ISO- seems to be coming out against Ranger in #171 #172... every scum player soon realizes Ranger is a threat, could have been testing the waters to see if he could get someone else to vote her. Fake townslip in #14.

You have a problem with BTD not seeming genuine in not understanding the setup YET say zero about Chip not understanding the game earlier on. Way to throw shade at someone who's voting you.

I thought you were smarter than this. Just a few pages back I explained to you why I don't post reads on every player. Whether or not I read chip's posts as scum is something I don't care to share with you.

Here is what is going on behind the scenes:
ploben is hoping to lynch karnos.

After I flip town, he needs to go into damage control, this is why he is trying to trick me into posting some negative reads on chip.

On day 2, using my read as evidence "see, in retrospec now we know karnos is town, he should take his scum read of chip more seriously", ploben will try to get chip lynched next.

F it. I really don't like BTD's post, but I guess they could just both be scum.
VOTE: ploben

You initially refuse to explain scumreads on the basis that scum will use that information. What makes others scumreads when they refuse to explain reads?

I see, but if you think this is the case why do you think ploben is scum? Wouldn't ploben have to be town for this to make sense, seeing as you are currenly tied at 4 votes?

Are you trying to say that scum.BTD wouldn't vote me if ploben is also scum? Why not? I am truly confused by this question of yours.

You claimed that scum.BTD doesn't need to get involved in the game as long as the lynch is heading towards a town, so if you do not think he has been involved in this game wouldn't that mean that ploben was town as well? Seeing as the lynch was heading towards either you or ploben.

Had to make sure you aren't a newbie, because it seems painfully obvious to me.

To hunt scum, think like scum. If you were scum BTD, and the vote was fairly close between your scum partner ploben and a townie karnos, what would you do? Vote karnos in a safe manner, sit back and see what happens? Or would you get super aggressive against me and post even more rhetoric about why I am certainly scum? I am not calling BTD stupid. If he is scum, as I suspect, he knows I am town. He doesn't want to come out against me too heavy, or it will reflect poorly when I flip town.

When I spoke of his game involvement, I meant something more than tunneling. In his town game he votes and unvotes and switched lynch targets many times. Often he votes for "pressure" to get answers in which case he doesn't even want to lynch his vote target. In this game, I see none of that. He is planting a vote at the safest point to do so with the intention of making sure I get lynched without drawing a lot of attention to himself.

In that town game, I was a newbie. A complete newbie. What makes you think that my town game in all games will be similar, especially after Ghostwheel and others explained why pressure votes on people you don't scumread have little point?

Maybe I'm biased because he's getting wagoned for the wrong reasons and I think everyone on his wagon is scummy but I was thinking he's town

Did you read all of my post 276 because I explain my read in there

So your read on ploben is based on him claiming

"I didn't do what I did to make friends but to do exactly this, get this game rolling and hopefully draw out some good conversation. Also, in the likely event of my death at some point in this game these events should yield some good interactions with others and hopefully town can use that. This is my play here guys, straight up. Good, bad, or otherwise."

which is really weird, because he later flip-flopped into saying it was a joke, not a test.

Other than that, nearly every ploben quote is him responding to me or voting me. It doesn't really seem like you are reading him at all for anything original. Also find it a bit funny how every time I mention the scum I am called out as OMGUSing, while ploben's vote on me was obviously that and nobody said a thing.

Karnos top town reads are Ranger, Shadow_Step, Scott Brosius, and AlpacaAlpaca

Like what, that just feels so fake that his strongest town reads are on the people who've posted the least

Or maybe, it could be that my top reads are players who are not on a town wagon.

on the opposite side of the spectrum: BTD6, Dunnstral, ploben, duppin, and florestan

That's literally the 5 people who are voting or trying to vote him

Sorry, it's day 1, not a lot of stuff to go on. Being on a town wagon is a scummy thing IMO, so yes the people voting for me are mostly around the bottom of the list.

Also I just realized that he has ploben listed as THIRD most likely scum, and I'm more likely to be mafia apparently and BTD6 is more likely too

That's.... just contradictory to what he's been saying, he's basically been saying he thought I was more likely to be town than scum the whole time in his other posts

No contradiction. BTD's scummy action fits wither either you or ploben as scum. I am still playing under the assumption that the scum team isn't totally stupid, so they wouldn't all buddy up in such an obvious way, which makes me less confident about you and ploben. I think probably one or the other is scum, but both being scum seems unlikely.

And to top everything off he brings out the "statistically more likely to be town than scum" for ben

It's incredibly simple math. There are 12 players. 9 town, 3 scum. Statistically a player is more likely to be town. Since at that time we had not seen a single post from "bulletproof ben", that is the only data we had to go on. You could even make the argument that it's harder to "roll" as scum, so if he did get a scum slot he would be more likely to stick around and play, but I wasn't even thinking about that when I made the read list.

There is nothing whatsoever scummy about being on a Town wagon. A Townie knows nothing about who is or is not Town (assuming they are not an investigative PR) so they do not even know if they are wagoning a Townie.

If the average person is statistically more likely to be Town than scum (25% versus 75%) then weak and moderate scumreads are also more likely to be Town than scum. This logic doesn't hold up.

My schedule did clear up a bit on Saturday, but MS wasn't my primary focus. Now, though, it's busy again.

Overall, a moderate scumread.

[Dunnstral]

That seems rather defensive and also suggests self-meta, which can be easily used by scum to hide their scummy actions.

Meanwhile Ranger townlean

[mhsmith0]

That seems rather defensive and also suggests self-meta, which can be easily used by scum to hide their scummy actions.

Meanwhile Ranger townlean

I call Ranger a weak townread despite disagreeing as I read her as mistaken Town rather than lying scum.

Many other points will come up when I analyse the others. I am preparing the analysis and will post it today.

It's the sort of "town lean but discrediting" post that makes me think BTD6 plus at least one of Ploten/Panther/Dunn. Given that Ranger is actively voting ploten, BTD6/ploten seems plausible. I mean that's kinda blatant if so (though not as blatant as active chainsaw voting), but wolves are sometimes kinda blatant.

PS Still working on my larger thoughts, but this one kinda pinged me. And in the event that BTD6 and at least one of Ploten/Panther/Dunn are together, it'd make sense for BTD6 to want to not be on a Ranger wagon but still want Ranger's push discredited. Waiting on other BTD stuff but that's IMO a realistic scenario here.

[Chip Butty]

ploben, how to you read duppin and dunnstral?

I've actually been thinking about dunnstral latley. I ISO'ed him quickly last night during the back and forth in here and during the Sharks/Pens NHL game so I didn't dissect it but I did find some interesting vote jumping early on, little suspicious. He's sheeping Panther and a paranoid me can see the world where he is pocketing me.

I haven't given duppin much thought.

I will today when I get to

work

the establishment that signs my paychecks.

Duppin is reading the game correctly and I think his reads are fine. I think duppin is town. Also, duppin's interactions with Chip make me lean back towards Chip being scum.

Scott's got a few points I agree with and has since interactions and associations.

Thanks, but wading through all that minute detail is giving me a headache, so could you be a little more vague? /sarcasm

All Alpaca has done is defend me and not really provided any other content.

Reeeeeeallllllllly? If you see being focussed on defending you to the exclusion of all else as scummy,

I would be FASCINATED to read your current view on your bud duppen, in the light of my ISO of him...

brb, I'm off to get some popcorn...

This is something I have been meaning to get back to for a while. ploben finds Alpaca suspicious for having done nothing else but defend ploben. But in my ISO of Duppin, I pointed out that he his posting history up until that point could be similarly described.

ploben, did we ever hear back to you re:your views on duppin up to the point of my ISO on him? If not, could you post them please?

Pretty sure you did.

Really? Link pls, because this is all I could find. That excuse for a "read" on duppin in the second quote takes the biscuit for the most half-assed read of the game so far, edging out just about everything by Kuroi.

How about a proper duppin read, addressing the fact that you found Alpaca scummy for defending you, while you give an eeeeeasy pass to duppin, who did exactly the same thing up until my ISO of him.

[Chip Butty]

I stronly encourage those of you who are Town but pushing Karnos as scum (if there is anyone that fits that description) to read Open 640. It has ended now, and Karnos was Town. I had a Town feeling about him during the game, and his posting style here seems to resemble his style in that game. You can see the same long-winded, slightly tortured explanations of the theory behind his posting etc. Also, he did better at me at identifying scum, although the Mod abandoned the game before any of them actually got lynched.

Knowing now that Karnos was Town in that game makes me more confident that he is Town here, although I have had that feeling pretty much from the start.

[ploben]

ploben, how to you read duppin and dunnstral?

I've actually been thinking about dunnstral latley. I ISO'ed him quickly last night during the back and forth in here and during the Sharks/Pens NHL game so I didn't dissect it but I did find some interesting vote jumping early on, little suspicious. He's sheeping Panther and a paranoid me can see the world where he is pocketing me.

I haven't given duppin much thought.

I will today when I get to

work

the establishment that signs my paychecks.

Duppin is reading the game correctly and I think his reads are fine. I think duppin is town. Also, duppin's interactions with Chip make me lean back towards Chip being scum.

Scott's got a few points I agree with and has since interactions and associations.

Thanks, but wading through all that minute detail is giving me a headache, so could you be a little more vague? /sarcasm

All Alpaca has done is defend me and not really provided any other content.

Reeeeeeallllllllly? If you see being focussed on defending you to the exclusion of all else as scummy,

I would be FASCINATED to read your current view on your bud duppen, in the light of my ISO of him...

brb, I'm off to get some popcorn...

This is something I have been meaning to get back to for a while. ploben finds Alpaca suspicious for having done nothing else but defend ploben. But in my ISO of Duppin, I pointed out that he his posting history up until that point could be similarly described.

ploben, did we ever hear back to you re:your views on duppin up to the point of my ISO on him? If not, could you post them please?

Pretty sure you did.

Really? Link pls, because this is all I could find. That excuse for a "read" on duppin in the second quote takes the biscuit for the most half-assed read of the game so far, edging out just about everything by Kuroi.

How about a proper duppin read, addressing the fact that you found Alpaca scummy for defending you, while you give an eeeeeasy pass to duppin, who did exactly the same thing up until my ISO of him.

Duppin is town for me D1. I'll circle back around to him on D2, if nessasary and if we're both still alive.

[Chip Butty]

Duppin is town for me D1. I'll circle back around to him on D2, if nessasary and if we're both still alive.

So...

1. You can't link to a post answering my question, even though you suggested to the game that you had indeed posted an answer?

and

2. You continue to refuse to answer my question: Please comment on why you found Alpaca scummy for exclusively focussing on defending you, but you read duppin as firmly Town despite him doing exactly the same thing (and over many more posts), up until the point at which I ISOed him?

[Chip Butty]

Why do we have to wait for D2 to get a decent read on duppin? I mean, calling your "read" on him "half-assed" is too generous. How about "quarter-assed"?

[Chip Butty]

Frustrated with:

• Chip

I'm the Columbo of Mafia

[ploben]

ISO me Chip.

I think your fake scumhunting

[mhsmith0]

Anyone want to give/update their reasoning for why ploben is town? I'm feeling plob/BTD6 team pretty hard right now tbh.

[Chip Butty]

ISO me Chip.

I think your fake scumhunting

I'll make it easy for you. Here is my ISO of duppin:

Part 1: 496
Part 2: 498
Part 3: 500

Please comment in the light of your statement that you found Alpaca scummy for being focussed on defending you. There is NO Town motivation for evading this.

Also, Please comment on Karnos' posting in Open 640. If you find his posting style there (where he was Town) significantly different to here, please give us details.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: Ploben ISO aka fun times with obv!wolf

His opening BS / reaction testing etc was mildly townie. OTOH, it's a completely easy mafia strategy to bait a dumb townie reaction (instead of a dumb wolf reaction) and just go after that. So mild town points at best. Sure as hell not clearing.
Other notes:
117 - "It was a reaction test, even though I didn't mean it to be. That makes me townie, but definitely don't give me too much credit for this"
118 - lowering expectations. wolf points.
131 - pretty nothing point between him and Chip. Plob AI reads this for non-obvious reasons. 126 was clearly a leading question with an implied answer. wolf points.
160 - mildly pure tone here. town points.
192 - over-reaction to chips "It IS a bit hard to imagine..." point. wolf points.
202 - I see nothing wrong with Chip's 196. Amusing that chip accuses ploben of "Nice attempt to discredit my reads. btw. Classic scum tactic.", then ploben here responds "Now I'm paranoid about Chip being dumb town" i.e. discrediting. wolf points.
226 - I see no contradiction. karnos was kinda tunnelling ploben, but NOT particularly sharing reads on other players. some questions and engagement but it wasn't particularly obvious what he thought of the rest of the board. seems like an actual misrep. wolf points.
227 - i kinda agree w this tbh. town points.
250 - first part is fine. second part associates plob with BTD.
302 - weak AtE if any at all. meh. null.
315 - defends BTD6 from panther.
342 - and 344 and 349. is fine. town points.
369 - "lol i was just RVS joking." meh. null, maybe small wolf points.
399 - some thought into this wrt 168. But I don't see how 286 was out of place, considering the discussion was about an error in her reads list as opposed to the actual quality of the reads themselves. Then again, the original back and forth (see 173was Ranger pushing back on BTD6's push on her. More plob-BTD6 association here.
428 - kinda agree, kinda think this is just caught for the wrong reasons. null.
435 - agree. town points.
443 - "I'm totally not moving my vote from karnos ever"
497 - actively discrediting ranger. almost like there was a panther/dunn vs ranger fight swamping the board and it'd be a cushy place to hop on board.

509 - Lurker vote #1. Garbage vote.

512 - still town reading scott. remember this.

518 - low activity players are good NK targets???? like the MAFIA would kill them? and you're voting there ANYWAY?? wow. Also his "low activity players need to start contributing" would suggest that it was just a vote whip, while his actual vote suggests it's a real read. And this is one hour after the vote. Almost like he's just spewing junk here.

546 - "Ranger signaled mafia traitor with her first post". As opposed to the much more obvious "hey mod why did you delete my posts that I made before you finished making the game" interpretation. Like, this is CRAZY reachy.
556 - seemingly awkward buddying. chip has fun with it in 554, ploben appears to be taking it explicitly seriously.
611 - "hey everyone if I push a mislynch forward you should TOTALLY lynch the people voting alongside me before like voting me" yuck.
622 - "it's the lurking that's scummy"
682 - "never mind it's the high posters who bring up meta"

684 - "never mind it's actually chip, I'm voting for chip"

704 - if ploben is wolf, I feel like this mildly spews panther town. if he's town then it's null on panther.
713 - mild buddying of panther
730 - "I'm just mislynch bait guys"
733 - if that was a naked vote by ranger with no context, it'd be in an odd place. Instead it's a function of her earlier list. That she voted in 285 instead of some other place is somewhat random, but the vote didn't completely come out of nowhere.
and

anyone, at any point in the game, can claim, "but my scummy behavior was to catch scum in a trap!"

is fine. Ranger specifically notes "It's not so much the act itself, but the way it was done". It needs to be justified, of course, but it doesn't make Ranger's case automatically "a crap case".
735 - this is

NOT

the objective of town. Town's objective is to find wolves. "scummy things" is a secondary objective. Sometimes town do "scummy things"; that is, in large part, why we see mislynches.

999 - Lurker vote #2. Garbage vote. Literally the STATED LOGIC here is "let's kill him before the mafia does it for us". He's (apparently) not even reading Scott as a wolf! Bonus points for "let's kill him instead of someone with a lot of associations". Horrific.

1045 - hard-defending BTD6
1056 - "Oh I was just calling out the lurker".

1140 - "Ranger made me make this vote on her". lol.

1247 - no clue where that BTD6 as wolf read came from. especially with all the earlier defending. almost like ploben wants to distance himself from that slot or something.

VOTE: Ploben
His voting record is HORRIFIC. The rest of his ISO sucks too. This is a wolf. There is ZERO reason we should not be lynching him today.

@Ranger: I'm kinda nullish on you, dunn and panther right now. Dunn feels kinda similar to his general town meta (though I probably need to re-read at some point), and you and panther seem like the mutual "screw you" fight that seems likely to be the same alignment (MAYBE theater but likelier town-town). If you have a case on them I'll listen, but I'd rather see your case there first before weighing in in greater detail.

[mhsmith0]

@panther: we are not lynching outside of
ploben
and
ploben

[mhsmith0]

Ps presuming ploben flips red, if there's a vig it should go on BTD6. Too much plausible spewing of a buddy by ploben to shoot anywhere else.

[Dunnstral]

You're reading Ranger as town?

[Dunnstral]

And kuroi?

[mhsmith0]

on btd6's side:

233 chainsaw defense of ploben
259 justifying chainsaw defense of ploben
265 weird post. maybe freudian slip here (yeah that's reachy but it's at least POSSIBLE)
577 over-simplification of ploben wagon

yeah he's associated himself with ploben too. ploben is a wolf like 80% of the time and BTD6 his buddy like 60%.

[mhsmith0]

You're reading Ranger as town?

null on her tbh. there's an irritable tone to her posts that I think leans town, but I don't think that's at all outside of her range to be faking. I kinda glazed over the ranger-panther fight at spots, but I don't think it screams wolfy for either of them. Also there are only three wolves and plob and BTD are probably two of them. Ranger not a priority sort for me right now.

[mhsmith0]

And kuroi?

Haven't really focused on him, but in a weird world where plob is somehow town, I guess maybe? I mean we should never be lynching outside of ploben today, but I'm fine with taking more time today to discuss him and others.