Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

re: BTD's 1255:

1) re: 75. lol no. I mean, yes self-meta can be used to "hide their scummy actions" but for that to be an actual point here, you'd need to show how karnos's actions were wolfy instead of just weird. Bad.

2) re: 254. that's not what karnos said at all. karnos said "I explained to you why I don't post reads on every player". Emphasis here is "on every player". Re-interpreting that as "you initially refuse to explain scumreads" is a gross over-simplification. Bad.

3) re: 434. I'll agree that there's nothing NECESSARILY "scummy about being on a Town wagon". But it's not crazy to be doubting the group of people who are pushing you, especially if you think they're bad. Null on this one.

[ploben]

@mhsmith
Is BTD any less scummy if I flip town?

[mhsmith0]

@mhsmith
Is BTD any less scummy if I flip town?

somewhat. I don't particularly like his ISO either, but a lot of it is the pretty consistent associations between you two.

[Ranger]

No you didn't.

...And you thought I'd have issues with your play here...why, exactly?

We've been in four games together as far as I can tell. Two scum, two town. Granted, I was your replacement in one of them, but that being said...why would you think I'd be suspicious of you? It's not that different from Blitz 24 or Open 625. There's less posts than I would prefer, but the content within looks about right, given variables such as: different game, different timeframe, and different account.

Anyway, I have no problem waiting for mhsmith to file his report, then waiting for Ranger to present her cases.

Still bitter that I probably won't get the content I want out of BTD6 and duppin, but I'll live. mhsmith being caught up is what I'm waiting for. If he's town, I think I'd be able to tell.

[mhsmith0]

*waves to ranger, points to plob case/vote*

[mhsmith0]

I mean, I'm not 100% caught up, and I don't really have reads on like half the board, but I feel pretty good about two wolf reads (BTD and especially plob) at this point. Which, unless there are actual legit town cases on those slots (which I kinda doubt), I feel like is a pretty good spot to be in at this point.

[Ranger]

Haven't really focused on him, but in a weird world where plob is somehow town, I guess maybe? I mean we should never be lynching outside of ploben today, but I'm fine with taking more time today to discuss him and others.

^This, basically.

[Ranger]

*waves to ranger, points to plob case/vote*

*waves to mhsmith, points to ploben vote and consistent calling of ploben as scum whole game* :P

I mean, I'm not 100% caught up, and I don't really have reads on like half the board, but I feel pretty good about two wolf reads (BTD and especially plob) at this point. Which, unless there are actual legit town cases on those slots (which I kinda doubt), I feel like is a pretty good spot to be in at this point.

A good spot, yes.

I would still prefer better. At this point, I think you're town, but if you could show/get thoughts on other players, it would definitely help me be more sure of that call.

[mhsmith0]

*waves to ranger, points to plob case/vote*

*waves to mhsmith, points to ploben vote and consistent calling of ploben as scum whole game*

well yeah, I just meant that this was more or less the response to "mhsmith being caught up is what I'm waiting for"

I mean, I'm not 100% caught up, and I don't really have reads on like half the board, but I feel pretty good about two wolf reads (BTD and especially plob) at this point. Which, unless there are actual legit town cases on those slots (which I kinda doubt), I feel like is a pretty good spot to be in at this point.

A good spot, yes.

I would still prefer better. At this point, I think you're town, but if you could show/get thoughts on other players, it would definitely help me be more sure of that call.

I mean, that's fine, but "I feel good about plob and likely btd being wolves" is basically where I'm at RN. There's almost a week left, and I'm fine w taking more time on the others, although I'm likelier to be wolf hunting than town hunting for the most part. I think you were discussing a case on Dunn/Panther, and while I'm not particularly wolf reading either, I'm not hard town reading either one either.

I will say that a plob/panther/dunn team seems pretty blatantly over the top in their D1 actions (this is presuming you're town, which I think is more a function of my wolf reads on plob/btd); MAYBE there's two in there, but I think it's likelier one, with that one being plob hopping on board the existing fight.

If you've got a solid read on panther/dunn you want to discuss, cool, but I'm pretty skeptical that's actually the full team. Panther especially I don't think would be dumb enough to get the full wolf team to expose themselves just to secure a desired D1 mislynch when they could have just picked an easier target and shot you tonight instead. I don't know dunn/plob at all so idk there, but even generically, I think it'd be pretty weird for any full wolf team to be aggressively pursuing a single mislynch on D1 in such a high-profile manner. I mean there's always "wolves will try anything" but this seems like a particularly dumb something for such a theoretical wolf team to be trying.

That said, I think if we have a goon cop, checking tonight inside panther/ranger is probably the right move (also: I hate cops for being boring roles to have in a game but whatever).

[itlepip]

Cause I'm playing pretty similar to Formation mafia.

[Dunnstral]

That's nice itlepip

[Dunnstral]

mhsmith, can you explain why ploben is a better lynch than btd6 for you?

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith, can you explain why ploben is a better lynch than btd6 for you?

Because plob seems like a super obv!wolf, while btd is merely pretty Wolfy. I'll re-read btd to see if I can refine that read but I don't think we should ever let plob survive d1 barring a non ccd pr claim. That said, if you want to make the case for btd first, I'll at least listen.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, plob has made FOUR garbage votes so far this game post rvs. Even one is sketchy but four is just openly wolfing and fake scum hunting.

[Dunnstral]

From my perspective it's just that btd6 is able to be scum with ranger, or with ploben, so he gits into both theories kind of

With that said I do actually believe that Ranger and Kuroi are mafia sooooo conflicting opinion? I've also been leaning town on Ploben and I'll go into that in a bit, and I wouldn't want to vote btd6 at this point

[mhsmith0]

MAYBE you can make a case his ranger vote was sort of righteous, but 509, 684, 999 are all AWFUL. He's faking his reads and his votes in a pretty obvious way.

[mhsmith0]

From my perspective it's just that btd6 is able to be scum with ranger, or with ploben, so he gits into both theories kind of

With that said I do actually believe that Ranger and Kuroi are mafia sooooo conflicting opinion? I've also been leaning town on Ploben and I'll go into that in a bit, and I wouldn't want to vote btd6 at this point

Please give me your basis for town reading ploben. I mean, his opening is plausible town, but everything else really isn't. I've seen flagrant afk'ers look more townie than plob here.

[mhsmith0]

I mean, do you believe that any of 509, 684, or 999 are votes that a town!plob actually believes? None of them seem remotely righteous to me.

[Dunnstral]

Besides the voting parts, he's only getting pushed by scummy people who are also pushing me and panther with it (and chip but....)

As for those votes, yeah I think 509 and 999 are scummy or at least look scummy, think 684 is fine because I don't think mafia still push to lynch chip at that point in the game (and of course I'm fine with Ranger votes)

I still need to read your case on Ploben tbh so hold on

[mhsmith0]

Besides the voting parts, he's only getting pushed by scummy people who are also pushing me and panther with it (and chip but....)

As for those votes, yeah I think 509 and 999 are scummy or at least look scummy, think 684 is fine because I don't think mafia still push to lynch chip at that point in the game (and of course I'm fine with Ranger votes)

I still need to read your case on Ploben tbh so hold on

K cool. I will say that the record of votes and reads is IMO the most indicative thing on the board. And his are BAD.

Also 684 specifically is bad because it comes on the heels of him basically accusing the entire rest of the board. It reads like "uh, it's these guys! No wait it's these guys! No wait, uh.... It's chip!" In the context of his ISO it doesn't read as righteous at all.

[Dunnstral]

mhsmith my problem with you is that you came in and give a null read on Ranger but push the same thing she's pushing

Still don't really have a read on you otherwise but it's noticable that you seem to be siding with Ranger

Ok 684 is a dumb vote but is it a scum vote? I don't see how it helps him as scum

As for the record of votes thing, maybe that's true of ploben but for everyone else there's basically been very little changing of reads and votes I feel

[Dunnstral]

By the way Panther seems obvious town to me but you seem to have more experience with him so it's weird that you're not getting the same feeling

[Dunnstral]

Actually I'll let Ploben defend himself on that post 1267 instead of doing it for him basically

[PantherPunt]

By the way Panther seems obvious town to me but you seem to have more experience with him so it's weird that you're not getting the same feeling

Actually have only played a couple turbos with smith...no long games afaik

So you have the most time/posts spent with me actually. Isn't it interesting you played one game with me and think I'm obvious town, flor has played one day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious town, and ranger played a day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious scum? Its perplexing, but she has still failed to say why or how other than one hilariously dumb logicfail reason that deals with my read on her (that I could have turned right back on her but haven't). So as I've said, can't wait.

[mhsmith0]

1) I think panther is probably good enough to fake a reasonably townie looking process as a wolf. I don't see the obv!town bit from him, though presuming it's plob/btd as two wolves, there's not much space left for the last one, so in that world he can be pretty likely town by POE. One of the annoying things about being decent to good at wolfing is you don't (or shouldn't) get strong d1 town reads. I mean, I'm fine w giving him a day pass, but im not betting the game on him being town. If you want to remake the case on him being obv!town,cool, I'll listen,but he's not really a day one priority sort for me. Ditto rangers case on you/Panther. I'll listen but unless it's a great case, I'm not much inclined to push d1.

2) why would it be an issue to be null on ranger but push along with her? If I was actively wolf reading her it'd be different, but I don't see the issue w agreeing w someone who's in your null space. Especially early on, my null space is large, and I'm not worried about being on the same wagon as a null or a few nulls. Also, fwiw, I'm pretty sure my reasons are materially different from hers (her read started early, mine is more focused on later stuff).

3) where 684 is an attempt to help himself is (I think) that he's basically expected to be voting someone, but doesn't want to commit to a major wagon. So he just kinda vote dumps. Now that's a guess as to motivation, it could be something else (like flat out OMGUS) but what is NOT a guess is the apparent lack of sincerity to his vote and the reading process he represented. I'm less concerned w understanding exactly why he did it than I am in understanding that it's not a townie thought process.