Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[PantherPunt]

smith, I'll read your ploben case and I'll reread ploben. I acknowledged earlier it's possible

But I'm still at

wwwww - Kuroi
wwww - Ranger
ww - Btd

ploben with a single w and karnos with a halfie but I think he's probably just spewed town at this point rather than chainsawed

[mhsmith0]

By the way Panther seems obvious town to me but you seem to have more experience with him so it's weird that you're not getting the same feeling

Actually have only played a couple turbos with smith...no long games afaik

So you have the most time/posts spent with me actually. Isn't it interesting you played one game with me and think I'm obvious town, flor has played one day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious town, and ranger played a day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious scum? Its perplexing, but she has still failed to say why or how other than one hilariously dumb logicfail reason that deals with my read on her (that I could have turned right back on her but haven't). So as I've said, can't wait.

I guess I'm fine w watching you and ranger fight, but unless you have an actual reason to town read ploben, you should still be voting there.

Ninja'd: yeah read my case. He's basically openly wolfing IMO.

[Dunnstral]

2 is an issue to me because there is a lot of resistance to this Ranger read and it feels like she's been getting townr eads she doesn't deserve, not so much the fact that you're null reading her by itself

[Dunnstral]

I guess I'm fine w watching you and ranger fight, but unless you have an actual reason to town read ploben, you should still be voting there.

But I think Ranger is mafia...? It's not just a slap fight over 4 and 6.5 days

I don't feel like she's done anything in order for me to remove my vote.

[mhsmith0]

I guess I'm fine w watching you and ranger fight, but unless you have an actual reason to town read ploben, you should still be voting there.

But I think Ranger is mafia...? It's not just a slap fight over 4 and 6.5 days

I don't feel like she's done anything in order for me to remove my vote.

Sorry, that at was at Panther. To me ploben is a very very obvious wolf. Like, lissa/smith turbo ing as wolf level obvious, except even more so.

[karnos]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p7995961]
What if Ranger flips scum? Who would you think is mafia in that scenario?

Conversely, who would you think is town?

Special mention I want to hear about Kuroi, but everyone else is important too[/quote]

If ranger is scum, ploben is still a serious scum possibility. I mean, you threaten to hammer your scum partner publicly, that could just be a ploy to discourage town from putting her up to L-1. Actually voting her? I guess that just may signify that he has given on her shaking the wagon alone, and he realizes he needs to get on board and bus before she gets lynched so he doesn't look like scum, and so he can accuse the non-voters as being scum. Other scum could be BTD still, or shadow_step, chip? I don't think so, but could be him i suppose. I'd probably look like scum to others, but I'm certainly not going to vote her now based on a tiny chance that I might be wrong about her alignment.

If ranger flips scum, who is town? I said before, the wagon on ranger was formed awfully fast. I wouldn't count on it being a pure town wagon, she is probably already being bused. So her flipping wouldn't clear anyone absolutely as town.

I almost think you are just using some silly psychology trick to make me start talking about ranger being scum, as if that will brainwash me into thinking she actually is scum. Nothing in her play has supported that theory, IMO.

I don't have much to say about kuroi that I haven't already said. I had a read for the slot before he replaced into it, and nothing he has posted has been extreme or telling enough to push my read very far in either direction. A solid null, leaning town.

[karnos]

VOTE: ploben

I'll switch back, looks like mhsmith0 is making a good case, and my symbolic vote for dunnstral isn't doing much.

[Dunnstral]

Conversely, who would you think is town?

If Ranger flipped scum?

[karnos]

I screwed up the quote brackets, but yes, that was your question.

[Dunnstral]

I think the people on the wagon

right now

would actually be town (except maybe you can still make a case for bussing from ploben)

I don't think the wagon was unnatural, in fact I think the opposite, there's an unnatural push

against

this wagon that makes me strongly believe it's town vs maf here

Also I'm townreading the people on the wagon too already so there's that

[mhsmith0]

By the way Panther seems obvious town to me but you seem to have more experience with him so it's weird that you're not getting the same feeling

Actually have only played a couple turbos with smith...no long games afaik

So you have the most time/posts spent with me actually. Isn't it interesting you played one game with me and think I'm obvious town, flor has played one day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious town, and ranger played a day phase with me and thinks I'm obvious scum? Its perplexing, but she has still failed to say why or how other than one hilariously dumb logicfail reason that deals with my read on her (that I could have turned right back on her but haven't). So as I've said, can't wait.

Iirc u were in star fox but got rekt pretty soon after I subbed in . But I think you were there long enough for my fake cop claim complete with "I dunno why mox forgot to send an order n2" not sure if u read the rest of it though. Still my most fun wolfing ever, though lords graveyard meltdown in fruit salad was pretty good too.

Ps pro tip for any newbies: if someone subs into a slot under fire and hard claims cop right off the bat, AND they claim "forgotten" peeks, they're probably lying

[BTD6_maker]

on btd6's side:

233 chainsaw defense of ploben
259 justifying chainsaw defense of ploben
265 weird post. maybe freudian slip here (yeah that's reachy but it's at least POSSIBLE)
577 over-simplification of ploben wagon

yeah he's associated himself with ploben too. ploben is a wolf like 80% of the time and BTD6 his buddy like 60%.

Voting someone who happens to be voting Ploben is not automatically chainsaw.

[mhsmith0]

on btd6's side:

233 chainsaw defense of ploben
259 justifying chainsaw defense of ploben
265 weird post. maybe freudian slip here (yeah that's reachy but it's at least POSSIBLE)
577 over-simplification of ploben wagon

yeah he's associated himself with ploben too. ploben is a wolf like 80% of the time and BTD6 his buddy like 60%.

Voting someone who happens to be voting Ploben is not automatically chainsaw.

But voting someone BECAUSE they are voting/pushing ploben is. Chainsaw defense was literally your voting logic there.

[mhsmith0]

Now, I will consider it possible that you were simply pocketed by ploben (if he's a wolf, then the entire point was to manufacture a town read through "well a wolf totally wouldn't fake claim IC like that"... Duppins 191 197 and 499 and others are potential examples of this gambit paying off). But the mutual interactions suggest you're likelier to be his teammate.

[BTD6_maker]

It was not just that they were voting Ploben. It was that I found their push to be scummy.

[mhsmith0]

It was not just that they were voting Ploben. It was that I found their push to be scummy.

But what you actually said was

Currently my top reads for scum are Karnos and Chip Butty. Both seem to be placing undue significance onto Ploben's joke claim. It is possible that they are both scum coordinating their efforts for a Ploben lynch.

VOTE: Karnos

This is L-2. I am trying to get pressure on Karnos as a vote on Chip Butty would not accomplish much at this stage.

That's much more "I'm voting for voting ploben" then really getting into WHY their push read as Wolfy to you. I mean I guess you could have meant it with the he "undue significance" part but that's pretty weak reasoning for a vote IMO. Not as weak as the crap ploben has been thrrowing out though, I will give you that. What's your current plob read?

[Ranger]

So I'm going to be doing the cases starting now. We're at the point where it's "good enough".
I've been thinking about the best way to tackle the cases, and ultimately, the conclusion I reached was the best way to write them would be...manually, page-by-page. That would mean all three cases would be written (and best posted) simultaneously. Given 53 pages worth of content, that would also be too long of a post. So, I made the decision to break it up into sections. I'm anticipating three or four. You'll know the case is finished when I say I'm finished; not a moment before then.

[Chip Butty]

Sorry if this is a thick question, but who or what is "itlepip"?

[Ranger]

My case against ploben starts with 12: I absolutely hated that post. The hyper-awareness of the setup is bad enough, but then you get dissonance; he votes BTD6 for something that should be a townread if it is worth reading at all.

This, before any of the IC nonsense, was the first foundation of my scumread. 15 also felt like a very forced RVS: this reads as ploben not knowing what a town player would be doing in the RVS.

Then, we get 17: again, ploben's hyper-activity in the RVS is out of place, but what really drives it home is the dissonance between what he says (the read on BTD6) and where he votes.

This was why I townread Florestan for 20 (and 24): he saw the same try-hard attempt.

22 again has the dissonance between being serious and joking, especially for someone who was aware enough of the setup to make the comment about bulletproofs being scum.

I also didn't like how in 23, he flat-out was acknowledging, "oh, yeah, the IC thing is a fake". If he were going to mess around with it, then why not keep the joke running?

25 is a "prove it!" declaration.

When we get to 29, we also get him backing out. There's absolutely nothing wrong with telling a joke in the RVS. Town do it literally every game, even scum do it.

The difference between town jokes and scum jokes is that town when joking just trust in people's abilities to figure out that it was the RVS and therefore not serious, whereas scum will be afraid. Scum will, preemptively, take it back, and try to make it clear to the town, "By the way, just so you know, that was a joke. It wasn't serious, if that was at all a concern."

It's a deliberate manipulation of image, fear of what people will perceive.

This brings us to Dunnstral's entrance: he immediately defends ploben in 55, and mounts the lasting, persistent counterwagon on karnos. This immediate strong defense of ploben, along with an unjustified hard push on karnos, is where the first basis of my Dunnstral read formed.

This continues in 62: more ploben defense, and a further attempt to deflect attention onto karnos, an easy mislynch target.

Well part of the reason I had voted him was that it did look like he was trying too hard at the rvs thinging, voting and unvoting ranger

This line from 68 was also absolutely hypocritical, given the actual reason for voting ploben was more along the lines of his try-hard content, yet here Dunnstral is making basically the same accusation against karnos. I also didn't like this line:

I can't believe I'm the only one who's going to vote this

The buddy-buddy interactions start as early as 83:

You think he faked it?

This was an empty question.

85 is basic distancing, but immediately, he backtracks in 87 when given the slightest excuse to switch.

98 is false scum bravado, effectively the signature you'll see of the scum this whole game: "lol".
No, seriously.
Look at Dunnstral, look at PantherPunt, and some ploben posting like this.

They are the only three players this game (aside from maybe Kuroi? Would have to check that) who have, when facing an argument, decided to go for fake tone answers that accomplish nothing.

Furthermore, 99 from Dunnstral is treating karnos as town.
And no matter how much ploben denies it...he's tried claiming it was a reaction test, a HUGE backtrack, with posts like 102.

I wouldn't really expect for him to be "dumbtelling" right out the gate

This in 111 is inconsistent as well, given 99: if Chip Butty is town for dumbtelling, why did Dunnstral scumread karnos for dumbtelling?

117 is a backtrack on the backtrack as well, where ploben tries to clarify what he meant.

Dunnstral's line in 124 about buddying is also a bit hypocritical given his "pretty sure Chip Butty is town here" and his attempt to get Chip to weigh in on karnos.

131 is an empty interaction.

And this ends the first part of my case, because this is where my lists enter the game.
From this, I had gotten a VERY strong scumread on ploben. I recognized the possibility Dunnstral could be town who was just defending scum, but I didn't think it probable, and that the most likely scenario was that he was a scumbuddy.

[Persivul]

Votecount 1.17

karnos (1) - BTD6
Ploben (4) - chip butty, ranger, mhsmith, karnos
KuroiXHF (1) - shadow
Ranger (5) - pantherpunt, florestan, dunnstral, duppin, ploben (L-2)

Not voting (1) - kuroi

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

(expired on 2016-06-19 07:30:00) remain until day end

[ploben]

I will be away for most of the day today but I read up to Ranger starting her case on me.

The only thing I wanted to respond to right away is...

1247 - no clue where that BTD6 as wolf read came from. especially with all the earlier defending. almost like ploben wants to distance himself from that slot or something.

I'm really glad mhsmith brought this up because this read of mine is out of no where and he seemed to be the only one to pick up on it. I'm thinking that's probably pretty town as he is paying attention.

Anyway, it's not going to make me look good, considering my stance on meta. So I'll hide it behind a spoiler tag...

Spoiler: BTD read

I just finished Newbie 1708 with BTD and his play style there is nowhere near his play style here. I was lynched the first day I replaced and I think he was lynched the very next day. We were both VT.

BTD would be last on my current scum list because of this.

[Ranger]

160 was cheeky.
So was 162.
In my experience, that kind of posting is more likely to come from scum than town. There's a difference between being sarcastic in an annoyed way, and being sarcastic in a knowing way. And when I say cheeky, I mean the latter.

I already gave some reasoning as to why I think he looks town

This, at the time of 180, is an absolute lie: not once in his iso did he give a reason for ploben to be town. He gave reasons why ploben wouldn't be scum, and those amounted to, "the ic claim was null". (Which, again, wasn't the real issue to be had with ploben in the first place.)

He was defending ploben, sure. But he never once gave a reason why ploben was town. Trying to call the fight townVtown was another thing which pegged me hard, especially when...

Chip you're that one town that just tunnels on something stupid all game long and ignores actual scummy stuff that's going on

...He tries to discredit Chip Butty.

Meta is crap, whether you scum hunt with meta or use it as a defense. Players who are aware of meta can obviously change it to project whatever they want.

This in 230 would not itself be suspicious.
Except...remember post 25?

I'm assuming you find it scummy then so can you post links to games (completed of course) where you have seen this, called it out, and that player has flipped mafia?

^This is asking for meta. A different kind of meta, but meta all the same. So, ploben is applying a double-standard: in defense of himself, "give me meta to prove it!", while when someone gives meta defending themselves, "meta is worthless".

From that same post, we also get this:

We'll agree to disagree today.

...Which is treating karnos as town in spite of scumreading him.

karnos (5) - duppin, dunnstral, ploben, scott brosius, BTD6 (L-2)

I find it impossible that this wagon wouldn't have at least one, if not two, scum on it. In contrast,

Ploben (3) - florestan, karnos, chip butty

These three players are literally my strongest townreads. Ergo, the karnos wagon (which formed in response to the ploben wagon) is a counterwagon to ploben.

251 is also a classical scum attitude post. When I am scum, one of the largest problems I typically face is having my scumreads (who're town)...scumread each other. As town, this would make me reconsider my read, but as scum, I need to push them to further my scum wincon. And that's EXACTLY what ploben was doing with 251: saying both Chip Butty and karnos were scum, in spite of the sheer improbability of that being true.

Dunnstral's 263 showed continued buddying of Florestan as well.

The sideline commentary he makes in 263 about Shadow_step's Alpaca vote is incredibly suspicious, regardless of Kuroi's alignment.
He is also treating his main scumread, karnos, as if town in 268.

269 doesn't work from ploben, since by his own logic, "scum do whatever they can to win". His own words. The exact quote, and this is a QUOTE of 192, is:

"Scum wouldn't do (insert behavior here)..." is a horrible line of reasoning.

So ploben is again being inconsistent.

272 has this gem from Dunnstral:

At the same time, you're not trying to collect more information, you're ignoring everyone but ploben unless you're attacked

For that, I'll again point to karnos's 274 as an apt description: Dunnstral had done absolutely nothing to collect more information at that stage in the game, and was ignoring everyone but the attacks on ploben.

I can repoint you to every post prior to 272 Dunnstral ever made to make a point of it, but scroll up from this link to try for yourself.
And speaking of karnos, 275 was a valid point as well: Dunnstral's comment about the quicklynch read as dead serious. He then attempted to backtrack and claim he wasn't quite serious.
Notably, it wasn't until AFTER karnos called Dunnstral out that Dunnstral produced content on players.

Dunnstral finally describes his ploben read in that post, 276, but let's take a look at it, shall we?

Overall I think this is just a towny post

Claimed a post was town, gave no reason. Except, of course, the smalltext "ploben agrees with me".

This doesn't look like a partner interaction to me at all

This relies on karnos being scum.

Don't care for this though to be honest...

Doesn't care for ^this line, in spite of him doing literally the same thing by the way.

It's good that somebodies paying attention to Florestan

"ploben agrees with me"

Oh yeah my top two scum reads are both voting ploben. Don't think this is bussing looks more like strongarming a mislynch.

"I don't like the wagon".

The strongest of these points? "Ploben agrees with me" (this, by itself, wouldn't be an issue, but it's Dunnstral's later posting regarding that which is) and this:

Overall towny tone and responses I'd say

A vague statement he doesn't back up.

Also worth noting: Dunnstral had one townread (Chip Butty), two scum reads (karnos and Florestan), one nulltownread (duppin), aside from ploben. A grand total of two townreads.

My first hint for PantherPunt being scum, by the way, comes in before PantherPunt joins the game: 296 is

extremely

out of place.

302 dismissess karnos as not bringing anything to the table, serving as a discredit of him, while also treating him as if he were town.

And this is where PantherPunt comes in.
Since that was a major change in the game, this marks the end of part two.

Unfortunately, it did get late, so I'll probably have to wait until tomorrow to finish these cases.
Just when I was getting to the good part, too. :(

[KuroiXHF]

Sorry if this is a thick question, but who or what is "itlepip"?

I think he posted in the wrong game.

[Persivul]

florestan is apparently an itlepip alt.

florestan/itlepip, please be more careful. Consider using different skins for different accounts. I've done that with a hydra and it helps a lot.

[duppin]

In short, his experience with me is that he should know I don't go for easy lynches as scum, and don't care as town.

I'm not sure why you'd bring up this self meta read when you also keep pointing out that you change up your playstyle every single game. In any case, my issue with you was mainly due to us having completely different reads, and that's obviously connected to your read on ploben as well. That doesn't necessarily mean you're scum, but it is interesting. It is certainly a possibility that I am simply wrong, which was why I asked you who your scumreads would be if ploben was town. You didn't really seem interested in discussing this any further, but I assume that just has to do with you being confident in your read.

If you really wish to bring up meta, then the last game we finished (you were a scum lover and I was town), we had quite similar reads and you tried to 'buddy' up with my slot (I replaced RC). Your play is completely different this game, but I fail to see how that's alignment indicative. You're a good player so I'd like to figure out your alignment early on, so if you're town then work with me.

If you still believe I am null-town, what do you make of our reads being completely different? If you think I'm just plain wrong, why aren't you trying to convince me?

I feel a bit better about your slot now though, after your last couple of posts.

He goes from this^ to this:

Still quite suspicious of Ranger, especially not too fond of her interactions with Panther.

Without explanation. He was feeling better about me, then suddenly is strongly suspicious of me, especially after others expressed interest in voting me.
[/quote]

Yes, I did feel better about your slot after your response to me. I did however not like your response to Panther.