Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1450 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:05 am

And yes I'm a horrible person for that last post

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1451 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:11 am

In post 1446, PantherPunt wrote:^That's me saying I'd consent to a ploben lynch btw

and ploben flipping scum in NO WAY clears Ranger, just so that's kept in mind. Since she's been selling ploben + me + dunn, it's very very valid and possible she is scummates with ploben and is looking to get that lynch for self-cred and hope others follow her onto lynching strong town. so she can kill elsewhere at night. it sounds tinfoily but it's not that tinfoily

Kinda agree. Generically ranger/ploben is one way that I think bussing could reasonably look like. Otoh we still have three very likely wolves, and we should always take care of that group first. I'd also say cop should check outside of that group of three, because it's be nice to create a "lock town" group (barring traitor issue) or pick up on a deep wolf. In a world in which say btd is villa, I don't think it's +EV for cop to out just to save that slot (especially if traitor is still on the board).

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1452 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:14 am

Otoh, in a world in which Panther or ranger is a non traitor wolf, it is DEFINITELY +EV to out to secure that lynch.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1453 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:27 am

In post 1444, KuroiXHF wrote:I'm actually doing neither of this. I'm saying you guys are half assing yourself. If you want to lynch me, do it. If you don't, shut the fuck up and stop saying you'll do it.

More seriously, this is a post showing a LOT of frustration w the game state. Ploben is likely to be lynched, and kuroi is voting there and not likely to be today's lynch. If ploben (who he's voting for) is going to get lynched, why be frustrated? It doesn't really make sense from a town perspective.

It makes the most sense from a perspective of a wolf who's about to see a bro go down and still be tomorrow's lynch (or tonight's vig). MAYBE it's a fake out where he knows plob is town and is trying to just avoid blame tomorrow, MAYBE it's townie frustration at being a suspect in the generic sense, but most likely this is a function of ploben/kuroi being w/w and this is an accidental confession. It's possible this is conf!bias speaking, of course, but that's how I read kuroi's post.

Basically, ploben/kuroi are w/w >50% of the time IMO.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1454 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:47 am

Well, I've played with someone who pulled a "trust me or vote me" Bs stunt as town, but I don't think any normal player would post that way as town, much less exhibit this specific level of frustration in this specific situation.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1455 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 5:58 am

@ploben: it's time to role claim. If you want to wait until l-1 fine, but we both know thats going to happen soon.

ploben · Post Post #1456 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 7:04 am

In post 1455, mhsmith0 wrote:@ploben: it's time to role claim. If you want to wait until l-1 fine, but we both know thats going to happen soon.

I'm not so sure about this. Anyone else weigh in here?

BTD6_maker · Post Post #1457 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:22 am

In post 1456, ploben wrote:
In post 1455, mhsmith0 wrote:@ploben: it's time to role claim. If you want to wait until l-1 fine, but we both know thats going to happen soon.
I'm not so sure about this. Anyone else weigh in here?

Generally speaking, I wouldn't claim until someone gives intent to hammer.

Weekdays are busy for me. I will try to get some more cases done by Day 1.

The Vigilante is without a doubt my least favourite common role. A Vig can easily ruin Town's chances. If we're going to play with a Vig, I suggest pseudo voting so that Town effectively has a second lynch rather than leaving the decision up to the Vig.

Dunnstral · Post Post #1458 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:29 am

In post 1457, BTD6_maker wrote:Weekdays are busy for me. I will try to get some more cases done by Day 1.

Sorry but there's no way I'd want to wait for you to "finish your cases" at the speed you've been going, especially since you seem to have no impact whatsoever

Dunnstral · Post Post #1459 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:30 am

Also Ploben is looking kind of bad but it's never who I'd want to lynch today. We can flip to kuroi if Ranger isn't going to happen

ploben · Post Post #1460 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:47 am

VOTE: Kuroi

Dunnstral · Post Post #1461 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:03 am

VOTE: Kuroi

ploben · Post Post #1462 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:06 am

Spoiler: All aboard!

Chip Butty · Post Post #1463 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:42 am

In post 1446, PantherPunt wrote:^That's me saying I'd consent to a ploben lynch btw

Spoken like a true capo di tutti-frutti capi.

But seriously, to actually make it happen, you need to cast a vote.

In post 1446, PantherPunt wrote: and ploben flipping scum in NO WAY clears Ranger, just so that's kept in mind. Since she's been selling ploben + me + dunn, it's very very valid and possible she is scummates with ploben and is looking to get that lynch for self-cred and hope others follow her onto lynching strong town. so she can kill elsewhere at night. it sounds tinfoily but it's not that tinfoily

[/quote]
I can actually see a possible ploben + Ranger + duppin. Both Ranger and ploben have been curiously soft on duppin's persistent, focussed defense of plobin up until my ISO.

Or, if you want to get REALLY tinfoily, there is the Mindfuck Scenario: Panther + Ranger + ???

I think smith made a reference to this possibility...

Dunnstral · Post Post #1464 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:46 am

Apparently I am now out of Chip's sights as he realizes a panther + ranger scum team is more likely than me being mafia

mhsmith0 · Post Post #1465 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:49 am

Yeah panther/ranger/x would def. be a tinfoil scenario. Not impossible but not any kind of immediate priority for me right now.

Where I'm at:

Plob t kuroi t
This would literally be my worst d1 reading ever.

Plob t kuroi w
Ranger a bit more suspicious, Dunn/panther a bit less, but bussing happens so it's not super strong

Plob w kuroi t
Ranger a bit less suspicious, Dunn/panther a bit more, but bussing happens so it's not super strong

Plob w kuroi w
Most likely scenario. And if it's this we're basically set anyway.

Chip Butty · Post Post #1466 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:55 am

@Dunn: If I didn't think you were joking, I would be suspicious of you getting from here...

In post 1463, Chip Butty wrote: Or, if you want to get REALLY tinfoily, there is the Mindfuck Scenario: Panther + Ranger + ???

...to here...LOL

In post 1464, Dunnstral wrote:Apparently I am now out of Chip's sights as he realizes a panther + ranger scum team is more likely than me being mafia

Besides, I left a third slot open...

Dunnstral · Post Post #1467 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:57 am

Thought that third slot was for Ploben

Chip Butty · Post Post #1468 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:10 am

In post 1467, Dunnstral wrote:Thought that third slot was for Ploben

Yeah, plobably...

ploben · Post Post #1469 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:14 am

In post 1468, Chip Butty wrote:
In post 1467, Dunnstral wrote:Thought that third slot was for Ploben
Yeah, plobably...

awww c'mon Chip...don't draw from that well too often.

ploben · Post Post #1470 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:17 am

@Florestan
Where you at at this point?

Can we get a prod for Florestan/itlepip/whoever want's to respond in this game?

Chip Butty · Post Post #1471 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 10:19 am

In post 1469, ploben wrote:\
awww c'mon Chip...don't draw from that well too often.

I'm making hay while the sun shines, which, if I get my way, is also the length of time you have left to live in this game.

Ninja'ed by ploben:

Also, do itlepip's posts count as Florestan prodges?

Florestan · Post Post #1472 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:17 am

wait a sec guys on it.

Dunnstral · Post Post #1473 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:34 am

In post 1415, ploben wrote:
In post 1413, Chip Butty wrote:I agree with whoever said it is stalling. I don't think anything is to be gained by drawing the Day out longer.
This is literally quoted 5 posts above your post. Distancing from Dunnstral? Hmmmmm.

Actually, why did you say this ploben?

ploben · Post Post #1474 (ISO) » Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:43 am

In post 1473, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1415, ploben wrote:
In post 1413, Chip Butty wrote:I agree with whoever said it is stalling. I don't think anything is to be gained by drawing the Day out longer.
This is literally quoted 5 posts above your post. Distancing from Dunnstral? Hmmmmm.
Actually, why did you say this ploben?

Because I feel like Chip didn't miss your post yet was very blase about "whoever said it is stalling". It was literally 5 posts above Chip's. I feel like he went out of his way instead of just saying "I agree with you Dunnstral"