New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[Ircher]

Thanks, think I've got it. 2x unNKable, normally a town role but not necessarily, cop believes it and irch doesn't.

I am not a fan of the claim either (mainly because as town it's a bad move).

What makes him more likely town are some of the players on his wagon and the fact it popped up now, when PM was the alternative (and lo and behold who made that wagon viable, why it's MagnaScum in collaboration with TerritownIrcher (?) and Nosferatu who never pushes her scum reads but this one is ok), instead of yesterday when Seth was busy shitposting left right and center.

@Ircher

Cuz scum commuters are way more powerful than town commuters

Whereas an unkillable innocent child is not a game breaking town role? Commuters are always x-shot or have some other limitations like even/odd-night regardless of alignment.

I was thinking even/odd more likely for town. Yes, full commuters are too powerful, but in a large, 2-Shot is much weaker than Even/Odd or Non-Consecutive modifiers.

Maybe I'm being stubborn, but my point is more that Kop shouldn't just claim whatever role and the wagon immediately disappears. The wagon wasn't even L-1 yet (as far as I remember).

The role could just as easily be scum as town (<-- That statement is 100% factual) and I feel scum would have had more incentive to claim then than town.

[copper223]

I was thinking even/odd more likely for town. Yes, full commuters are too powerful, but in a large, 2-Shot is much weaker than Even/Odd or Non-Consecutive modifiers.

Given we know nothing of the setup that's at best a very very wild guess (also makes me wonder if you know more about the setup than I do).

Maybe I'm being stubborn, but my point is more that Kop shouldn't just claim whatever role and the wagon immediately disappears. The wagon wasn't even L-1 yet (as far as I remember).

This is a fair point and I mentioned it as well, if you were scum reading kop before this is no reason to change your mind.

The role could just as easily be scum as town (<-- That statement is 100% factual) and I feel scum would have had more incentive to claim then than town.

Depends how far down the wifom hole you want to go.

[drmyshottyizsik]

The fact it's 2-Shot further suggests its a scum commuter.

Why?

This is scum Copper protecting scum Kop.

I think this is you not answering a question

[Ircher]

You havent said a useful thing all-game.

[Lowell]

VOTE: matt

I'm ready to buy him as scum. I read again and I'm worried I've grown too lenient on explaining away scum as newbtown. newbtown still applies to cy, though

I'm inclined to believe Kop claim as town. On the one hand, it's kind of a who-gives-a-shit role, as far as I can tell. However, everything about Kop's ISO looks like someone who has a claim that can bail them out and isn't so worried about a lynch because of it. I'm more inclined to think town would play this way. Frankly, I've done this. Had a good, clear, town claim and sort of pissed around most of the day knowing that if I got anywhere near mislynch I can just spout my claim and everyone will move on. I think that's what this is.

And why is this town indicative? Quite the opp -- Town would prefer not to get nk'd whereas scum will make their fakeclaim obvious so they can use it as a "Get out of jail free" card.

What I'm saying is I've definitely leaned on a claim as town but haven't done it as scum. As scum it's more of a desperation move. So I see this as more of a town move. As though he looked at his role and thought "ah, okay, well I won't have to try very hard at first if I don't want to." But yes I get that this is WIFOMy, so sure, feel free to disagree.

[drmyshottyizsik]

You havent said a useful thing all-game.

I think what I just pointed out is pretty important also nice strawman with a red hearing thrown in

[projectmatt]

Projectmatt, were your reads on the dead players really so good that your reads didn't change for Day 2? I'm asking because I legitimately don't remember yourreads on those four players.

I mean, my reads have still had the same solid basis (Anen is scum, Ircher is probably town), but I've gone back and forth pretty heavily on a few of my reads (like Copper and KOP and now Liger - because his vote on Magna right after I lightly attacked him seems like such a weird jump.)

I'm still waiting to understand the case on Copper. For those who think he is scum, could you please point me to either your case on him that I may have missed, or post one?

Page 105:
I don't like projectmatt playing the lynch bait card. I don't think of him as lynch bait

Historically speaking, I feel like I generally am. I try to rise above that, though. In general, it's hard for me to bring the topic up of "people tend to read me as scum very easily, and I'm not 100% sure why" without sounding like "I'm a crybaby mafia that got caught and is trying to appeal to emotions."

Kop (6) - Expedience, Lowell, Ircher, MagnaOfIllusion, Nosferatu, Aneninen

Likely scum pushed wagon

That's a strong statement. Who on the wagon do you think is scum? I believe that you scumread Magna, but who else in order for it to be a "scum-pushed wagon"? What are your thoughts on Anen?

I could compromise on Kop, considering the wagon looks to be all town. I just think Seth was town.

I think Zakk is still much better though.

For the most part, I townread you, but posts like these make me feel uncomfortable because it feels like you're very easily setting yourself to vote for Kop as a "compromise", while framing it in the way that "when Kop is town, Zakk is still the best choice."

[Ircher]

Thing is, I did answer it. If you had just read the posts above yours......

[Ircher]

We lynch Kop first. If Kop is scum, then I'll make the Copper case.

[projectmatt]

Considering that Copper has been one of your primary lines of attack for this entire game, I'm not comfortable with you saying that you'll make a case on him -later-.

[Ircher]

It's an association case.

Kop is my primarily suspect right now.

[projectmatt]

Association with who? You need to elaborate.

Another question while I'm reading through ISO'S:

Lowell,

you've had Anen as a scum-lean for most of the game. Why have you refused to consider voting for him/interact with him even though you have a scumread?

I'm asking because I've been claiming that Anen is probably scum for most of the game, but it seems like even those who agree are weirdly distant from him, or scared to vote him. I don't get it.

[Ircher]

Kop, is it not obvious who I was refering to? It's just like how someone jumped on me earlier when I said us clearly refering to Titus and me in that context.

[projectmatt]

Additional notes to myself: I read through Zakk's ISO again after townreading him earlier, but it literally goes right through me. I don't know how to read his playstyle at all, and so I don't know what my read on him is. I'm pretty sure I read his earlier posts as pretty town-motivated and full of life, but right now I'm reading them really apathetically. I am unsure why.

Nosferatu is probably mafia that's been overlooked, because his content looks really terrible to me after a cursory readthrough. I should probably look more into that.

Titus is still coming off as town - I'm inclined to think that most of the scumreads on him are based on paranoia.

Shotty is still town too, even though I still really loathe his playstyle. It comes off as disturbingly useless.

[projectmatt]

Kop, is it not obvious who I was refering to? It's just like how someone jumped on me earlier when I said us clearly refering to Titus and me in that context.

But that's not right at all. It can't be an association read completely. You scumread Copper near the very start of the game, long before KOP was even a factor.

You obviously have reasons to vote for Copper other than him being associated with KOP, or you're bullshitting.

[copper223]

That's a strong statement. Who on the wagon do you think is scum? I believe that you scumread Magna, but who else in order for it to be a "scum-pushed wagon"? What are your thoughts on Anen?

Nosferatu for starters, that read should be pretty obvious if you've been reading me.

I'm unsure about Ircher as well and entertained some suspicion about Lowell after talking to zakk but he does seem pretty town in his latest catch-up.

I did not particularly like Aneninen's latest (too many places where he was fence sitting) and the Kop vote switch when you hadn't done anything for him to change the focus, but the way I am reading the game makes him very likely town here and he did have Kop as possible scum before switching.

[projectmatt]

Okay. Good response. You can remain as town, then. My only question is it about the way you're reading the game that makes Anen very likely town?

Also, I want to persist with my "Ircher is clearly town, and you guys are stupid for voting him" shtick, but his sudden silence after I just called him out on presumably lying is very telling.

[copper223]

Because I believe Nadhia and Nosferatu to be likely scum, and they were the main drive behind the earlier Anen wagon, you joining them on it is one of the reasons why I think you are part of their team, so if you have a good reason for thinking Anen is scum I'm all ears.

[projectmatt]

That seems like an exaggeration - I just ISO'd Nosferatu and he's attacked Anen several times but refused to vote for him. That's part of why I scumread Nosferatu - because it feels like he's trying to set himself up for future credit if Anen flips scum, while still refusing to vote for Anen.

Regardless though, I'll try to compile what I specifically dislike about Anen.

[copper223]

@PM
You will note I also said

Nahdia

, if you need a refresher she seemingly randomly decided to announce Anen. was confirmed scum at roughly the halfway mark on D1 (and that's where suspicion on Anen mainly started), she then continued to cheekily push her scum reads without explanation while getting mostly town-read until she met resistance, after which she has mostly disappeared from the thread and I'm still waiting for the promised catch-up (to be fair Nahdia is less active on the forum at the moment, so the last part may not be that relevant, but it ain't looking good).

[projectmatt]

I agree that Nahdia was someone who started the Anen wagon - I simply think that Nosferatu didnt't.

Funnily enough, the reasons that you read Nahdia as scum are the reasons why I partially read her as town. I'm also waiting for her catch-up content as well.

[copper223]

Why do you think scum Nosfe is sheeping town Nahdia so hard then, doesn't that speak of a common agenda?

[projectmatt]

But that's the thing. Nosferatu is sheeping Nahdia in words only. He has claimed that Anen is scum, but refused to vote for him. He's attacked Anen but not without quickly backing off.

I don't think they have a common agenda. Nahdia actually voted for Anen and wanted him lynched, and Nosferatu just talked about how Anen is scummy.

[copper223]

That makes Nosfe. even scummier in my book, it doesn't absolve Nahdia though.

If one likely scum is prepared to follow you on all your reads, and I think Nosfe. was going to follow if the conditions were right, her whole attitude has been to wait and scum-read without voting regardless of what Nahdia was doing (see how Nosfe. behaved during the Persi. wagon), either you managed to screw up at every opportunity or more likely you are just more confident (rightfully so) that you can mislynch town and get away with it,

Nahdia still has a perfect record as scum and strikes me as much more of the second type of player anyway.

Add to that there hasn't been a peep from Nahdia about Nosfe's more or less veiled support, wouldn't you be freaking out like Titus when Ircher keept sheeping and defending did or screaming how town Nosfe was when pressure started to build on her if you were convinced you had formed a nice cozy block?

What I see instead is barely any open communication but plenty of implicit support and coordination, I don't think that's a likely coincidence.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Kop’s claim doesn’t dissuade me from the wagon. Commuter in a multiball set-up is a very viable scum PR. I’m not exceedingly shocked to see Copper floating Kop as scum-driven.

Seriously open Copper in ISO. Search for Seth / Kop. Observe how often he calls that slot scum right up until a wagon appears on him. Chainsaw defense at then happens. Seriously. 492, 657, 867,. Late day 1 in thread he moves him to “Meh” 1432. Overnight in the Neighborhood Seth / Kop was “likely scum”. Today started with 2333. And note how Seth / Kop mysteriously doesn’t appear in his Vote Tally analysis.

Classic soft bussing that turned into “Oh shit, Town is actually pushing on my partner” defense stance.

@Kop
If you're town what you should be interested in is why your wagon didn't pick up yesterday when it was much more legitimate (Ircher for instance first pounced on the SK claim, then later called Seth town, and now has you as my teammate apparently).

Translation – “Hey buddy here’s an avenue to try to divert the wagon on yourself”

@Magna, why do you now believe that I'm town? What was your post #1433 about? In particular, you asked me my thoughts on somebody talking about how reads change, and you said in post #1800, that you would know judging by my response whether or not I was scum-Matt.

Your question was clearly in reference to a game that was on-going at the time, (Fire and Ice Mafia, that just recently finished) as it related to a scumtell I pointed out from you that I had used to get you lynched. (I was mafia.) Now that the game is finished, it looks like your conclusion should be that I'm also mafia in this game, as my logic is slightly similar. So, what changed?

My read on your response was that it was a pretty significant change from Fire and Ice Mafia. As a reminder here is your response this game –

It's bad logic. I actually think his logic is very silly, and I generally find unwavering confidence in reads to be a bad thing. That said though, I'm not looking up to TehBrawlGuy as the pinnacle of good logic/agreement. I also don't think bad logic is inherently scum.

Brawl floated that reads that hardly changed was indicative of a real reads list.

In Fire and Ice you said a reads list that didn’t change during a single day was a scum-tell. Obviously that was clearly dumb but you had a whole squad of dumb town backing you up that game. You were Mafia.

Here Brawl was saying the exact opposite. If you were scum here I would have expected you to attack Brawl on that point. You didn’t – you just simply claimed it was silly and not scummy.

Is my interpretation incorrect? If so please let me know because that’s a large portion of why I’ve put you in my “not scum” pile today.

Also, my scumread on Anen still hasn't ceased, and I'm a little frustrated that nobody seems to feel the same way. Do I need to make a large case on him? I guess I could do that.

Why do you feel the need to ask this question? Clearly if you aren’t convincing players without it and want your scum-read taken seriously it would be a wise course of action if you are Town.

Ircher, 2682. I can't see that Kop–Copper association. (Although I've just looked into that long post because I have limited time.) Kop definitely looks bad.

Read the start of my post. Then read Copper’s ISO.

Why do you think that analysis was junk?

Inherently there are going to be more Town in a game than scum. In a sane game Town should occupy between 75 and 66% of the total playerbase. It isn’t unusual to expect to find players who have votes on Town Day 1 in a Large. Nevermind that there are no scum flips to point to which for actual analysis would be the important data.

I can also get into the fact that he’s voted all the same players I did Day 1 that are supposedly damning votes.

Care to explain?

No. It isn’t helpful to elaborate. You can dismiss or read the worst into that stance if you wish.