Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[duppin]

Especially considering that I'm usually not around during the weekends.

[Thor665]

I wanted to point out that he backed off as soon as you replaced in and tried to work with you.

The issue I have is, did he?

We have a bit of friendly banter (about two comments) that are really just joking about past games - that is, functionally, innocent.
Then we have him offering up his case on his top scumread (which, even as he was calling my slot scum he was citing that as the scummier slot) and asking for my thoughts.
And that's about it.

He could easily, at this stage, come out and say he still scumread my slot and there is nothing I can see that one could point to that would prove that claim iffy.
That makes the conversation premature and weak at this stage - unless you see something I'm missing.

[ploben]

@Plob - in a world where you're town, and feel one large wagon hard swung into a wagon on me, why are you voting me? Like, is your theory that scum hard swung a wagon away from scum onto...other scum?

I'm voting you because your slot is scummy. My theory would actually clear Ranger in my mind, if that's the case. Trying to figure Flor out lately

So your theory is there was a wagon on town that HARD swung onto a wagon on scum because no one unduly influenced it at all?

It would explain Flor's behavior on the back end of this day. I'm not so bright so can you dumb down "HARD swung onto a wagon on scum because no one unduly influenced it at all?" I mean there was definitely a push to Kuroi but it wasn't excessive, inappropriate, or unjustifiable (I had to look up unduly).

[Thor665]

@Duppin - though while we're at it, if you find backing off scummy (and I agree) what do you think about Dunnstral who legit did back off from me and immediately started selling the Plob lynch?

[PantherPunt]

@Plob - in a world where you're town, and feel one large wagon hard swung into a wagon on me, why are you voting me? Like, is your theory that scum hard swung a wagon away from scum onto...other scum?

I don't get what you're even hypothetically positing.

Plobtown. Wagon on scumranger. That wagon swung to scumthor

But why are you saying it like scum swung the wagon from one to the other? If there are two scum wagons, at most two scum could move assuming no self vote. I just don't see how you draw that out from what plot said about flor

Help me see

[duppin]

I understand what you're saying, but I'm not claiming that he was suddenly townreading your slot. What I am saying is that when you came in he attempted to work with you (one of his scumreads) by trying to get you in on his case on ploben. He can't deny that and he wouldn't really need to. I never called it scummy or town (I can see it coming from either alignment), I simply asked you what you thought about it.

[duppin]

@Duppin - though while we're at it, if you find backing off scummy (and I agree) what do you think about Dunnstral who legit did back off from me and immediately started selling the Plob lynch?

I have a townread on Dunnstral, but I agree that post was a bit sketchy but not for the same reason you think. I thought it was a bit weird since it seemed to me like he was already preparing for a scum flip from ploben (by lining up a lynch for tomorrow by proposing that Ranger was bussing, a read that I personally don't agree with).

I think Dunnstral and ploben are both town though.

[Thor665]

It would explain Flor's behavior on the back end of this day. I'm not so bright so can you dumb down "HARD swung onto a wagon on scum because no one unduly influenced it at all?" I mean there was definitely a push to Kuroi but it wasn't excessive, inappropriate, or unjustifiable (I had to look up unduly).

You're the one who called the push HARD - so are you now saying it was a generally and gradual shift?
Like, your raised issue with Flor is that he was good to lynch Ranger, and yet hid when the wagon there shifted to me as he wouldn't be allowed to vote you due to his townread there.

The thing is, he's in multiple games, you can look at his activity, and it doesn't look like he's trying to avoid this game at all.

Meanwhile, if Ranger was a mislynch du jour, what caused the shift to me? Just town energy? If that's true then where are the scum, are they almost all voting you and Ranger?

[Thor665]

But why are you saying it like scum swung the wagon from one to the other? If there are two scum wagons, at most two scum could move assuming no self vote. I just don't see how you draw that out from what plot said about flor

Help me see

When I see a wagon shift hard from one player to another in non multiball I generally think one of two things, either the alignment of the two wagonees is the same, or the first one is more likely scum.

Plob has since clarified that he theorizes the other way due to an attitude (easily proven wrong in my opinon) that FLor is lurking out from addressing the wagon and I'm now asking him why he theorizes that way.

Does that clear up the exchange for you?

I understand what you're saying, but I'm not claiming that he was suddenly townreading your slot. What I am saying is that when you came in he attempted to work with you (one of his scumreads) by trying to get you in on his case on ploben. He can't deny that and he wouldn't really need to. I never called it scummy or town (I can see it coming from either alignment), I simply asked you what you thought about it.

Why wouldn't you try to get people to vote your top scumread though? I want everyone to vote my top scumread.

I thought you were calling it scummy, because I suggested it wasn't alignment indicative at this point and you suggested it was.

I think Dunnstral and ploben are both town though.

I could maybe buy Plob - why do you think Dunnstal is town?

[ploben]

It would explain Flor's behavior on the back end of this day. I'm not so bright so can you dumb down "HARD swung onto a wagon on scum because no one unduly influenced it at all?" I mean there was definitely a push to Kuroi but it wasn't excessive, inappropriate, or unjustifiable (I had to look up unduly).

You're the one who called the push HARD - so are you now saying it was a generally and gradual shift?
Like, your raised issue with Flor is that he was good to lynch Ranger, and yet hid when the wagon there shifted to me as he wouldn't be allowed to vote you due to his townread there.

The thing is, he's in multiple games, you can look at his activity, and it doesn't look like he's trying to avoid this game at all.

Meanwhile, if Ranger was a mislynch du jour, what caused the shift to me? Just town energy? If that's true then where are the scum, are they almost all voting you and Ranger?

No, I guess is wasn't a sudden shift. The Ranger wagon lost momentum and wasn't going to even get to L-1. Shadow was on Kuroi back when it was Alpaca. Kuroi looked scummy and I'm pretty sure I brought up I would compromise on Ranger for Kuroi instead. Dunn followed. Kuroi made the replacement post. Panther jumped on. BTD had to choose from a logical pool of 2, maybe 3 lynch possibilities.

So maybe HARD was the wrong word to use. I think I over exaggerated that shift in my mind.

[duppin]

Why wouldn't you try to get people to vote your top scumread though? I want everyone to vote my top scumread.

Sorry but I'm not sure what your point is. I just told you that he was scumreading you prior to your replacement and then tried to get you to vote for ploben and then wanted to know what you thought about it.

As for my opinion it bothered me because I thought it was a weird, but I can still see him do it as either alignment.

I think Dunnstral and ploben are both town though.

I could maybe buy Plob - why do you think Dunnstal is town?[/quote]

I'll just quote one of my previous posts:

Seeing as this game has just finished, this is the main reason I think Dunnstral is town. I encourage any town who is scumreading him to check this because I was scumreading Dunnstral pretty badly this game and we were both town.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=66300

While I do admit I haven't seen Dunnstral as scum yet, he is pretty much playing the exact same way as he did in that one.

[duppin]

I keep failing quotes. Obviously I wasn't mean to quote my own post but your reply to it.

[Thor665]

No, I guess is wasn't a sudden shift. The Ranger wagon lost momentum and wasn't going to even get to L-1. Shadow was on Kuroi back when it was Alpaca. Kuroi looked scummy and I'm pretty sure I brought up I would compromise on Ranger for Kuroi instead. Dunn followed. Kuroi made the replacement post. Panther jumped on. BTD had to choose from a logical pool of 2, maybe 3 lynch possibilities.

So maybe HARD was the wrong word to use. I think I over exaggerated that shift in my mind.

Okay, and what do you think about my opinion that Flore is provably not avoiding this game?

Why wouldn't you try to get people to vote your top scumread though? I want everyone to vote my top scumread.

Sorry but I'm not sure what your point is. I just told you that he was scumreading you prior to your replacement and then tried to get you to vote for ploben and then wanted to know what you thought about it.

My point is - he was encouraging a scumread to vote a larger scumread.
I'm suggesting that is normal.

While I do admit I haven't seen Dunnstral as scum yet, he is pretty much playing the exact same way as he did in that one.

How would you describe his play here as exactly the same?
I recognize that's a broad question, so to try to narrow it down - what scummy habits pinged you in that game that you are seeing duplicated in this game?
I'm scumreading him off of an opportunistic vote shift - did he do that in the town game you linked?

[mhsmith0]

Q: @mhsmith - seriously, want to move onto this with me?

A:

When I see a wagon shift hard from one player to another in non multiball I generally think one of two things, either the alignment of the two wagonees is the same, or the first one is more likely scum

.

More seriously, Dunn remains in my null zone. IMO there's a lack of intellectual scrutiny on the plob spot that I find reasonably consistent with a wolf... or a newish kind of player. And he's fairly newish around here (two months, and I THINK not a super high # of games played). So that's a plausible town perspective on it, therefore null. Ditto the kind of surrendering on the plob wagon he's started to move towards in 1601. It's certainly not an OBVIOUS town process there, but it is a PLAUSIBLE town process. So again, null. And I'm not voting a null over a wolf.

Ps speaking if wagon resistance, has ANY wagon been more seriously resisted today than plobens? It seems like "ploben vs not ploben" has been the story today, with karnos, ranger, kuroi/Thor all playing the part of counter wagon (IIRC anyway). That's a LOT of counter wagons while the other side remains rather firmly in place.

[karnos]

SCUM: ploben, dunnstral, duppin, BTD (obviously one too many, I can't decide which one is wrong)
NULLSCUM: florestan

NULL: thor, panther, shadow_step

NULLTOWN: ranger
TOWN: chip, me, mhsmith

[Thor665]

More seriously, Dunn remains in my null zone. IMO there's a lack of intellectual scrutiny on the plob spot that I find reasonably consistent with a wolf... or a newish kind of player.

A null read is a valid vote at this point. Especially with your case as presented.
I haven't been here, so I can't speak on it for sure, but I'm willing to wager that most of the "resistance" to the wagon is actually just people making the newb value call you just mentioned here. It's not a wagon with a lot of bite to it.
Conversely - I have opportunistic vote shift man as an alternate wagon. That's already a better described case than the nonexistent one on my slot or the 'newb lynch' Ploben option.

You should move.

SCUM: ploben, dunnstral, duppin, BTD (obviously one too many, I can't decide which one is wrong)
NULLSCUM: florestan

NULL: thor, panther, shadow_step

NULLTOWN: ranger
TOWN: chip, me, mhsmith

Sounds like you should vote Dunnstral.

I also think you're probably wrong on Duppin, that slot feels town-ish to me at the moment. Certainly better than Panther.

[Shadow_step]

Duppin can you use your brain a bit and vote Kuroi/Thor since you think Ploben is town.

Or are you happy with parking your vote there?

Same for Florestan really, someone put him on l-1 and state intent so that we can get a claim.

I'm tired of reading this useless fluff.

[mhsmith0]

More seriously, Dunn remains in my null zone. IMO there's a lack of intellectual scrutiny on the plob spot that I find reasonably consistent with a wolf... or a newish kind of player.

A null read is a valid vote at this point. Especially with your case as presented.
I haven't been here, so I can't speak on it for sure, but I'm willing to wager that most of the "resistance" to the wagon is actually just people making the newb value call you just mentioned here. It's not a wagon with a lot of bite to it.

To clarify, I was saying that dunns kinda lazy scrutiny of plob was consistent with DUNN being newb. As far as plob goes, he's had a fairly consistent dishonesty and insincerity about him, from votes to reads to interactions. That's not "plob is new", that's "plob is wolf". If you want to hard sell a Dunn wagon, go for it, but I'm not buying it right now.

Ps I'm also not sure how dunns shift makes sense in a world where plob is town and Dunn wolf. I could maybe see it as dunn giving up on his wolf bro, but why is this indicative of Dunn wolf if plob isn't a wolf? It's late in the day, we need a lynch, and dunns stated top choices apparently aren't happening. Why is this necessarily AI on Dunn? I'm really not seeing a smoking gun here, you need to walk me through your thinking here.

[Thor665]

Ps I'm also not sure how dunns shift makes sense in a world where plob is town and Dunn wolf. I could maybe see it as dunn giving up on his wolf bro, but why is this indicative of Dunn wolf if plob isn't a wolf? I

That's easy - if he was gunning for my mislynch, and now think sit will be harder, he shifts to the alternate top wagon that is also town. That is a simple enough motive, and also explains why a claim hasn't been forced yet, because scum is perfectly happy with either wagon.

[mhsmith0]

Ps I'm also not sure how dunns shift makes sense in a world where plob is town and Dunn wolf. I could maybe see it as dunn giving up on his wolf bro, but why is this indicative of Dunn wolf if plob isn't a wolf? I

That's easy - if he was gunning for my mislynch, and now think sit will be harder, he shifts to the alternate top wagon that is also town. That is a simple enough motive, and also explains why a claim hasn't been forced yet, because scum is perfectly happy with either wagon.

Do you consider his posting unreasonable from a town perspective? I feel like "we're late in day, we need a lynch, so fine I guess we can lynch plob" to not be ideal town by any stretch, but I think it's pretty plausible from a generic town perspective. I can see why it COULD be a wolf perspective, but I'm not at all seeing why it MUST be from a wolf perspective. I just don't see the case on Dunn being anywhere near as strong as plob.

[karnos]

I was voting dunnstral a few days ago, wouldn't terribly mind switching back to him, if chip & mhsmith like that wagon.

[karnos]

On the other hand, pushing the ploben wagon to lynch has been difficult. Would it be this difficult if there were scum on the wagon?

Can't know for sure, but the difficulty makes me think it might be a good wagon on an actual scum.

[Thor665]

Do you consider his posting unreasonable from a town perspective? I feel like "we're late in day, we need a lynch, so fine I guess we can lynch plob" to not be ideal town by any stretch, but I think it's pretty plausible from a generic town perspective. I can see why it COULD be a wolf perspective, but I'm not at all seeing why it MUST be from a wolf perspective. I just don't see the case on Dunn being anywhere near as strong as plob.

I would find it more believable as a take if he hadn't specifically stated believing the lynch on me would be difficult prior to suddenly pushing for the claim.
Deadline might be his fear, but to have it coincide with my replacement (plus a belief I'm "harder" to lynch even though I've never played a single game with the guy) don't buy it so much. Looks strategic rather than pushing for an equal scumread to me.

[Chip Butty]

I was voting dunnstral a few days ago, wouldn't terribly mind switching back to him, if chip & mhsmith like that wagon.

As someone pointed out, the plob wagon has been around a while, and various counterwagons have formed. It HAS been difficult to push through, and yes, I am inclined to think scum has been resisting it with persistent calls to switch to you then Ranger then Kuroi/Thor.

So, I think I am going to keep my vote where it is, unless it gets really close to deadline and we need to avoid a no-lynch.

[Chip Butty]

Votecount 1.21

Ploben (4) - chip butty, ranger, mhsmith, karnos
Thor665 (5) - shadow, ploben, dunnstral, pantherpunt, BTD6 (L-2)
Ranger (2) - florestan, duppin
Dunnstral (1) - Thor

Not voting (0) -

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

(expired on 2016-06-19 07:30:00) remain until day end

Thing is, I'm reading the wagon on plob as Town-driven. karnos, mhsmith, feel okay about Ranger (with some reservations)
On the other hand, the wagon on Thor has four suspicious characters on it (all except Shadow)
Florestan's and duppin's votes on Ranger just look a bit lost atm.
Thor's vote on Dunn: Really doubt that wagon is going to happen today.