Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I'm not unvoting Thor today. If we nolynch because people literally won't get on and vote then tough luck

To me Thor is obvious and I'm seeing the TMI read on Ploben that was being talked about earlier

I'm considering the tmi possibility. Otoh I feel like hers been a decent amount of weak town reads on ploben, so I don't know that their especially jumps out from the crowd in a world where ploben is town. Then again, I give it MAYBE like 10% odds I have to live in that world, so I'm not really worried about that yet.

Also, this is why I've been trying to get people to commit on ploben reads BEFORE flip. He's like the big story of the day, I'd think more people would want to share well thought out reads on his slot.

[Dunnstral]

Yeah I'll give my full reads then, I actually do have a strong townread on Panther that I know you were disagreeing with someone else for but I just really think he's town

[Chipbutty, Pantherpunt]
[mhsmith0, Shadow_Step, Duppin, Ploben]
[Karnos]
[BTD6_maker, Florestan]
[Ranger, Thor665]

I think I've given good reasoning for every one of those reads, except maybe mhsmith0 and BTD6 (and Panther I guess but that's a lot of tone and gut and what he's pushing, and how he's acting compared to his last town game)

[mhsmith0]

@thor: it's now late day. Your options are

1) hop on ploben wagon
2) comvncingly sell ploben as town
3) do a better job selling Dunn wagon, or find a non Dunn wagon to push effectively
4) claim

We're not no lynching today, and I find you an acceptable compromise if I can't get ploben. Sorry if that's Dickish, but that's just the way it is. I'd rather lynch ploben, but I'm not particularly buying your Dunn push, and we're running out of time.

[mhsmith0]

I suppose
5 get an extension from the mod given possible btd sub
might work too, although were almost at 1800 posts already and it's still d1.

[Dunnstral]

I suppose
5 get an extension from the mod given possible btd sub
might work too, although were almost at 1800 posts already and it's still d1.

BTD6 wouldn't be eligible for replace before the deadline though

[Dunnstral]

I have no clue how a prod works if it goes into night after the prod by the way, would BTD6 have another 3 days to post after night falls?

[mhsmith0]

I think that sort of thing varies by mod, I'm not sure exact policy and don't want to mod speculate.

[karnos]

Wouldn't it be bizarre if ploben & thor were both scum?

I'll support mhsmith on this: while I want to see ploben lynched, I'll switch to thor rather than see a no lynch day.

[mhsmith0]

Wouldn't it be bizarre if ploben & thor were both scum?

I'll support mhsmith on this: while I want to see ploben lynched, I'll switch to thor rather than see a no lynch day.

It wouldn't be bizarre at all tbh. Thors my #2 wolf read, and they fit together reasonably well IMO.

[mhsmith0]

@dunn: if thors claim checks out, are you willing to move onto ploben? If so I'm willing to force a claim from Thor.

[mhsmith0]

That presumes karnos is also willing to do this.

[Dunnstral]

How does a "claim check out" in this setup?

If mafia picked either no mods or 1 mod, they get a 60%/40% chance respectively of successfully fake claiming a pr role.

I think I went over this already before

There is only one role to be claimed that wouldn't warrant a lynch anyway IMO, and that's vigilante

[mhsmith0]

Any claimed role can either be CC'd or be forced to justify its night actions going forward. Definitely you don't lynch a non CC'd PR on D1. Also, 60%/40% presumes that the wolves chose no boosts, and even though *I* wouldn't want boosts, other wolf teams have chosen differently. So it's a dangerous gambit, 60% safe odds at the ABSOLUTE best, and likely worse than that.

[mhsmith0]

Four times run per wiki
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=35122 - 3 boosts (recruited and JOAT and role cop)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=31371 - 1 boost (JOAT)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=30518 - 1 boost (role cop)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=28682 - no boosts

So while the mafia would know how dangerous a PR claim is (unless non-recruited traitor), town wouldn't. And again, I wouldn't want to lynch a non CC'd PR on D1. If they're for real, mafia likely kills them, or they can use their PR's to help town.

[mhsmith0]

Seriously, though, Dunn: if karnos and I compromise and force a Thor claim, if he claims a non CC'd PR, will you join us on Ploben? We need a lynch, and I'm willing to work with you on my #2 read if you're willing to potnetially work with me on my #1 depending on #2's claim.

[mhsmith0]

That offer extends to the various other Thor voters as well, if any are hanging around. Again, presumes karnos is up for it too, since either way one side or the other needs to compromise before EOD.

[Dunnstral]

I meant 40% if they chose 1 boost which is a reasonable assumption.

If there is more than that then it doesn't really matter they'll get cc'd unless super lucky 20%

[Dunnstral]

I'll be here until like 3 hours before EOD

[Dunnstral]

Seriously, though, Dunn: if karnos and I compromise and force a Thor claim, if he claims a non CC'd PR, will you join us on Ploben?

Yes.

[mhsmith0]

Fine. Thor, claim. Karnos has stated willingness to vote you, and I have intent as well. That's two intents and you're at L-2. I don't feel like logging the official vote because I don't want someone to lolhammer you, but you have two intents. You need to claim.

[Dunnstral]

So it's a dangerous gambit, 60% safe odds at the ABSOLUTE best, and likely worse than that.

60% chance of success gambit made when you're about to be lynched anyway....

I don't feel like logging the official vote because I don't want someone to lolhammer you

Who would lolhammer him, let alone make a vote, let alone make a

post

[mhsmith0]

mhsmith0 wrote:
I don't feel like logging the official vote because I don't want someone to lolhammer you

Who would lolhammer him, let alone make a vote, let alone make a post

I doubt it'd happen, but it could. I've seen dumber stuff happen in games. At any rate, intent is on the board, now we wait for Thor to claim.

[karnos]

/intent thor

Thor, whatever you do, don't claim innocent child.

[mhsmith0]

/intent thor

Thor, whatever you do, don't claim innocent child.

But that would be fun!

[mhsmith0]

Intent to vote in another 1-2 hours if Thor doesn't claim.