New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!

[zakk]

i'm kinda not wanting to lynch anyone right now

unvote

i feel like if i was right about titus a wagon would have formed by now or i would have been killed by now






players left — plus thoughts! seat-of-my-pants style

1. Shaziro - would be okay with a shaziro lynch all things considered. i think titus was giving him shit for a not good reason but i also didn't like yesterdays play. mostly i just want to lynch other people less. there's been a lot of content/swimming but it seems more like small talk/doggy paddling/treading water, rather than pushing towards real things to get real results. so, noise:ratio is not worth it. i could see that as being scum, but even if it's town idk, i'd be down to swing it.

2. MagnaofIllusion - dont want to lynch today. i have a hard time reading magna-types because they tends to post in walls which seem carefully made and i never trust anything which seems carefully made. pretty unimpressed overall bc i read up a bit on magna and was expecting some ETL/magna wall wars (well more at least). i really liked his battle(s) with persivul unfortunately that yielded no fruit. also, his title suggests he dies early, that hasn't been the case, and we have 8 deaths in 2 nights (tbh i'm fucking impressed that i'm not dead either). i want to see this powerlynched if nothing amazing comes out of it in the next daycycle or he doesnt die.

3. Nosferatu - i dont really know much about nosferatu and i'd suspect if there was lurkerscum this slot would be it. i need to read him more first of all. would probably be down to lynch to save myself some time. lol

4. drmyshottyizsik - super active day 1 and pretty active day 2 but i barely remember a presence at all day 3. actually iirc he stopped posting much after i stopped pressuring both him and titus. it's like he and i decided to join forces against titus and then he kinda just disappeared and lurked or active lurked. i could see it as bored town but really i am not getting those vibes. would be down to lynch today.

5. projectmatt - had a pretty strong town read day 1 but that's all but gone exactly the other way (i was voting him before i just unvoted), and i dont really know why. i feel like enough people called him scummy that it kinda stuck in my mind, and also his repeated promises for content are basically either going to culminate with "hi guys here's this super townie wall" which scum could also write just as easily, which offers a bunch of opinions which may or may not change the game but in all likelihood will do VERY LITTLE to help me read him. in cases such as this i usually go with reading my early gut, which is usually pretty good. we'll see. willing to lynch today, maybe.

6. Ircher - had an early gut town read and didn't like the pressure, but went with it for lols/pressure reasons. he didnt handle it well but i had kinda an "aw cute its gotta be town" read because i didnt feel duplicity in his posts. i feel like if he's town he's been left alive because he'd be completely useless in endgame (sorry), and if he's scum, well i'm certainly underestimating him. maybe playing the fool is a good play here. but looking at his wiki i'm not feeling it's an act (again, sorry).

7. Egg - same read as projectmatt almost to a T. strong d1 town read but that's cooled off quite a bit in D2/D3. of particular note is that as scum in Killer Instinct, he was the first one i wanted to kill as soon as he replaced in, like IMMEDIATELY, because he was so obvtown/hitting marks with his reads. can provide links to mafia thread. but in this game, i don't see that kind of play. it felt like it on D1 but i also think he could have been trying to mimic that. on that note, also of note, aneninen was in that game, and he played almost exactly in that game as he did (as town in that game, as scum in this game) so that's why i town read him all the way until the flip. in retrospect maybe they were both playing to meta, and if i was vig or SK it would have worked perfectly. don't want to lynch today. he's also made more posts recently and i think that's good, and i think i have some questions outstanding from him iirc.

8. cytheflyguy - eh. same read as ircher, again almost to a T. i dont feel scum intent. i also don't feel too much wit. wouldn't lynch today.

9. Nahdia - danger zone here. i dont really have a strong read one way or the other. could obviously have power-bussed aneninen but idk her play well enough yet. def don't wanna lynch today.

10. Lowell - we shouldn't lynch today. i believe his claim but his play so far baffles me. also, can you tell i'm getting lazier? lol

11. Titus - i'm glad titus was last in the OP because i have more i want to say, plus i have a really great and (i think) clever analogy which i hope isn't really insulting but also kind of undeniably is, but either way it's accurate. i feel like titus is a hammerhead shark. really hard headed, and looking everywhere but the obvious (what's right in front of her). i also don't know if that's scum or not. i wanted her dead earlier but now i'm reconsidering due to flips, however, there's also some shit here i can't talk about yet, so i will let yall know more when i can. however, i would be down to lynch titus any time, any day. the whole "left alive cause she's wrong or would be a detriment to town" angle could definitely be in play, but also titus should be dead by now whether she was right or wrong, because if she's magically right suddenly, that person is in danger, and scum wouldn't like that variable in play.


this was all from memory so there will probably be confbiasmisrepping within. but for me that's like a Seal of Quality™, so~




re: SK. i dont really have any SK reads. unfortunately i think we should just lynch "scum" and hope we get an SK kill, but hunting for an SK would probably be useless.

in this game 5 scum would probably be a good bet, so SK + 4 scum seems reasonable.

[zakk]

also i jus tremembered someone was talking about an SK really early, and it was sethyazura / kop, who is flipped town, so that's pretty useless to pursue too imo.

[Ircher]

@Zakk - I'm not useless in endgame. That's where I'm the strongest which my stats should clearly indicate that 4 out of my 5 wins had me still alive.

[zakk]

@everyone: If you were an 11-shot dayvig, who would you shoot, and in what order, and why? and the game would end if you hit all the scum, but you'd get to bring 2 people to 3p lylo which you felt you could read the best.

there would be no talking. no discussion. no nights/nightkills/protects/whatever. different from lynching in order, just if you, only you, were lining up people and killing them. who would it be. and also why.

just as an exercise to help me (and hopefully others) grasp things better. because i feel kinda unhinged atm



i'd shoot:

11. Titus - for scumminess and slight paranoia about being wrong too much about flipped players
7. Egg (!) - because i'm paranoid of him copying meta, and i haven't played against him as scum at all
9. Nahdia (!) - because i'm paranoid that i cant read her at all and her death would bring me peace of mind and less wifom
3. Nosferatu - i have no read on him and wouldn't want to save that for last. this would be a lazy kill hoping for a good shot.
2. MagnaofIllusion - no discussion would mean he'd be useless anyway even if town, but still dangerous enough as scum.
5. projectmatt - because i'm suspicious of the promised content and the tapering off, and same as egg minus meta.
4. drmyshottyizsik - for going quiet day 3 - tapering off. and being mostly useless even when he was active.
1. Shaziro - because i just wanna shoot shaziro next. he's lower than i thought he'd be tbh. but the next one's a kicker.
10. Lowell - you may be surprised to see him here. don't worry. it just means i want to shoot everyone else more.

lylo choices:

8. cytheflyguy - i don't feel scum here.
6. Ircher - i don't feel scum here.

Spoiler: my notes (DO YOUR RANKING FIRST BEFORE YOU READ THIS)

ok first thing--

this was HARD.

this involved a LOT of reordering on my part, and this doesn't reflect who i think is the scummiest, but is who i think COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE MOST DANGEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT GAME STATE AND MY KNOWLEDGE OF PEOPLE (or lack thereof).'

particularly surprised about shaziro and lowell being so low. the people who were high up were mostly the people i felt i hadn't read well yet / couldn't get a good read on (minus titus, partially, but kinda not). then came the people who i am kinda meh about, then come the people i feel the safest with / who would be the easiest to brute force scumhunt

i want people to really think this through, and answer.

everyone

, pls.

[zakk]

p-edit: you get your wish. lol

food tiem

[Ircher]

1. Shaz - For that inconsistency Titus pointed out and the continued backtrack
2. Shotty - Cuz he's super annoying. You know, one of tjose vig shots.
3. Liger - The worse of the 2 in the neighborhood
4. Zakk - Healthy paranoia here
5. Pmatt - Good start, but became a lurksaxk
6. Egg - Being useless
7. Nahdia - AtE; Lousy misrep of me today
8. Titus - Healthy paranoia here; don't want to be stuck in LyLo with her
9. Cy - lynch all lurkers
10. Nos - Don't take chances
11. Magna - Don't want the neighborhood in LyLo either for WIFOm

LyLo:
Lowell - Conf town

Feel like I'm missing someone....

[drmyshottyizsik]

VOTE: zakk
that is a scum move man

[Shaziro]

VOTE: zakk
that is a scum move man

I was going to do it and see what he was angling at, how is it scummy?

[projectmatt]

My top scum-read is actually

Nosferatu

. Here's the short version:

The first thing I noticed about Nosferatu when I read through his ISO is his tendency to go very heavily with the popular/easy to push on votes. In post #154, he votes for Copper with the specific reasoning that he believes that Titus's case is strong.

His very next "content" post is post #441. In this post, he lightly attacks Copper and then proceeds to vote for SethYazura. At that point in the game, guess who the only other vote on Seth was?

Copper.

Meaning that in his first 2 posts, Nosferatu attacked Copper strongly, voted him, and then proceeded to vote for the person that his top scum-read was voting. That's weird, and it comes off super awkwardly.

It was no secret that I thought Copper was pretty town throughout most of this game (save for a few moments of doubt), and I'm inclined to believe that Copper was being used as an easy target for scum to attack and quote as a "possible lynch", even though Copper didn't have any particularly strong scum-tells. Nosferatu's vote leads me to believe that he was doing the same, because his reasoning was "yeah, Titus is right", when Titus's reasoning was just straight up lame.

Oh, by the way - Nosferatu never voted Copper again during the course of this game, but only lightly attacked him or said that he was a possible choice for a lynch. This contributes to my theory that Copper was an easy target to attack without having to commit to logically stating -why-.

The rest of Nosferatu's posting is very tonally awkward/non-committal/going with the flow kind of play, but there's some very choice things about his vote on Anen that makes me suspect he is scum as well.

For one, Nosferatu has done the same thing with Anen that he did with Copper - he has lightly posted scumreads on Anen while

never

voting for him. This is bothersome because it looks like lightly bussing scum that was afraid to commit to the Anen wagon. If Anen really was one of his top scumreads, why didn't he join me or Nahdia on the vote? Why didn't he post anything substantial about Anen at all?

And look, I could excuse some of this stuff, if it wasn't for this post:

That seems like an exaggeration - I just ISO'd Nosferatu and he's attacked Anen several times but refused to vote for him. That's part of why I scumread Nosferatu - because it feels like he's trying to set himself up for future credit if Anen flips scum, while still refusing to vote for Anen.

Regardless though, I'll try to compile what I specifically dislike about Anen.

you're absolutely fucking right I'm taking credit post-game when anen flips scum, cause I scumread that shit and the rest of the town didn't. I'm an egotistical bastard and that's what I do.

I'm not refusing to vote for anen, but I won't be today, because anen can be vigged or can be hit by cross kills. Kop is a much more realistic risk. When you've got two people who commit a crime, do you indict the construction worker who killed a man or the med-tech executive who committed fraud? The med-tech executive, since he's a flight risk! A commuter is objectively higher in priority in lynches because you can't vig him, unless you try over and over again, and at that point you're wasting vig targets.

Look, this is

bullshit.

You aren't going to get any towncred for correctly suspecting Anen, when you did absolutely nothing to help the cause of lynching Anen. You posting this only further confirms my suspicions that your motivation for suspecting Anen was so that you could get "towncred" when he flipped.

I think this post frustrates me the most because it's somebody trying to take credit for "reading Anen correctly", when doing that is completely empty if you don't take any kind of action.

So yeah, to put it shortly, Nosferatu is all talk and no action. I think he's scum.

I'll post other stuff in a sec too, but I want to keep this post separate from the rest.

[projectmatt]

Oh and for the record, I see his reasoning in post #2828 for why he didn't vote Anen. It just reads like a lame excuse to me.

[projectmatt]

I still think that Titus and Zakk are both town. I understand the case on Titus, but I honestly can't shake my townread on him no matter how many times I comb through his ISO. His play sincerely reads to me like somebody trying to earnestly find scum, and I don't see any particular kind of fake/made up style of play in his methods at all. Zakk has also made himself fairly clearly town to me during this day especially. Unless he's ridiculously good at faking content/tone, my townread is still the same.

I guess that Lowell is conftown.

I still think that Nahdia is town too - but her playstyle always comes off as really awkward/lazy to me. She has 2x the amount of posts of me, but a lot of her ISO was totally devoid of content. That said though, some of the stuff that initially read to me as weird posturing now kind of reads as a sincere attempt to find scum. Also, there's the whole her and I hiveminding on Anen thing. I'm feeling OK with calling her town, but not strongly.

Look, my ego will not allow me to call Ircher scum. I also admit that my ego is probably giving me rose-colored glasses of his ISO. I've been defending him since the early game, and I still don't think he's scum. I think that some people (like Nahdia) are confusing newbie tells for scum-tells. Like, when he is reliant on the wiki as to why there must be a scum in the neighborhood, I don't read that as scum. I read that as somebody trying really, really hard, and mistakenly using a source that isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure I've delved into why he's town before as well, so I'm not going to explain it again.

I'm beginning to second-guess my townread on Egg. I initially thought his analysis was incredibly town and impressive. However, him being perpetually behind on catching up reads to me more like a crutch to not contribute than it is an actual attempt to be up to speed. Maybe Egg and I have different styles of play, but he doesn't need to go through every single page and give a detailed response. If you're behind on the game, read through and it give a summary of all your thoughts. I really hope that he picks up the play and engages with the current game soon, because I really dislike his recent output. Unfortunately, the V/LA isn't inspiring me, and cynically makes me feel like he'll use it as a reason to become even further behind.

Sometimes Magna comes off a little awkward or forced to me - like his aggressive attacks on Copper yesterday that came off as a little bit weak/far too confident. But his analysis of interactions with Anen today has been A+ material, and he handled his response to my questioning pretty well. I lean town on him.

I want Shotty dead. But I don't think Shotty is scum. I'm also not willing to lynch Shotty. I just think his style of play is so aggressively terrible, and I don't get it. I'm sorry if that seems harsh, but I'm just really annoyed by his style. His reads look like he's jumping from wagon to wagon without actually reading the game, and he rarely states thoughts that actually come off as coherent. That said though, I regretfully still think that he's town, and I really wish that I didn't.

I scumread HA a pretty fair amount when this game started, and that makes me also read Shaziro in a little bit more of an aggressive light. I have the same complaint about him that I had about HA - a lot of his content comes off not like actual scumhunting but rather posts that specifically are looking for the next person to attack. I don't know if that makes sense. In my head, scum and town play the game pretty differently. Scum look for people to target or suspect and try to frame it as scumhunting, while town don't normally have an underlying agenda. His posts come off to me like they have that agenda, and that they are aggressively looking for someone to push on.

I'm conflicted about Liger. I really dislike his vote on Magna yesterday (because it came weirdly after I had questioned Magna) and his vote on Ircher today also feels forced. But his reconsidering about Ircher today comes off like a possible town move. I'm waiting to see more content from him today. A reads list would be great.

[projectmatt]

Short version of that wall:

Town:

Titus, Zakk, Nahdia, Lowell, Ircher, Egg, Magna, Shotty

Scum:

Nosferatu, Egg, Shaziro, Liger (?)

I'm not gonna bother with the vig exercise right now.

Vote: Nosferatu

[Nosferatu]

did you actually read that post and think that I wanted town cred from anen flipping? I was going to get town cred post game? lmao

[Nosferatu]

As for the vig thing I'm kinda looking:

Titus - probably scum
Shaziro - if titus is town probably scum
Liger_zero - PoE from neighborhood makes probable scum
Egg - is perpetually catching up and I don't like that.
projectmatt - probably scum or bad. The fact that bad is an option makes him lower.
Ircher - I'm on the fence.
cytheflyguy - might be lurkerscum
drmyshottyizsik - probably town but paranoia
Lowell - might be sk, or 2-shot strongman but probably not
MagnaofIllusion - probably town
zakk - probably town
Nahdia - probably town

[Nosferatu]

that's ordered btw.

[Nosferatu]

Christ alive, Ircher, I've made it very clear that it is bad for town for me to explain it. You're either scum who actively wants town to suffer, or just a VI who can't accept that he's wrong. Either way, I'm not explaining more than I already have, so stop fishing.

I'm not a VI; simply different.

Also, I'm 5-14 win-loss.

despite the fact that this furthers the point of you being a VI, why is it necessary to mention?

[Titus]

As for the vig thing I'm kinda looking:

Titus - probably scum
Shaziro - if titus is town probably scum
Liger_zero - PoE from neighborhood makes probable scum
Egg - is perpetually catching up and I don't like that.
projectmatt - probably scum or bad. The fact that bad is an option makes him lower.
Ircher - I'm on the fence.
cytheflyguy - might be lurkerscum
drmyshottyizsik - probably town but paranoia
Lowell - might be sk, or 2-shot strongman but probably not
MagnaofIllusion - probably town
zakk - probably town
Nahdia - probably town

Your ranked readslist is looking who is easy to lynch

[Nahdia]

i am very hard to lynch

[Titus]

That's why you're at the bottom of his list.

[Nahdia]

can confirm.

[Nosferatu]

also

@zakk: famaram why on earth do you want cy in lylo? Do you want to lose?

As for the vig thing I'm kinda looking:

Titus - probably scum
Shaziro - if titus is town probably scum
Liger_zero - PoE from neighborhood makes probable scum
Egg - is perpetually catching up and I don't like that.
projectmatt - probably scum or bad. The fact that bad is an option makes him lower.
Ircher - I'm on the fence.
cytheflyguy - might be lurkerscum
drmyshottyizsik - probably town but paranoia
Lowell - might be sk, or 2-shot strongman but probably not
MagnaofIllusion - probably town
zakk - probably town
Nahdia - probably town

Your ranked readslist is looking who is easy to lynch

If I was scum trying to strongarm mislynches, the list would also be in a different order. Shotty would be higher, ircher would be higher, along with cy and lowell, and zakk would be at the bottom. Magna would also switch places with liger. Try harder.

[Shaziro]

...I actually agree with Titus. I think I'm easier to lynch than Titus, just because Titus is apparently a very slippery lynch-dodgy kind of player, but even then...I don't like agreeing with Titus, especially after what honestly looks like her trying to push me to roleclaim and asserting her interpretation of what was said as absolute fact...Titus. Look back at that conversation, assume that I've been 100% honest and that I didn't realize you were crumbing odd night, what I've said I'm not, ETC. Try and figure out what I -was- saying. Look at my behavior. See if it makes sense. I bet it will.

[Nosferatu]

...I actually agree with Titus. I think I'm easier to lynch than Titus, just because Titus is apparently a very slippery lynch-dodgy kind of player, but even then...I don't like agreeing with Titus, especially after what honestly looks like her trying to push me to roleclaim and asserting her interpretation of what was said as absolute fact...Titus. Look back at that conversation, assume that I've been 100% honest and that I didn't realize you were crumbing odd night, what I've said I'm not, ETC. Try and figure out what I -was- saying. Look at my behavior. See if it makes sense. I bet it will.

no you're harder. more people scum read titus.

[projectmatt]

did you actually read that post and think that I wanted town cred from anen flipping? I was going to get town cred post game? lmao

this is a bad non-response, also of course if you say "i want credit post-game for calling out the scum when no one else did", you'll want credit when they flip scum during the game.

[projectmatt]

Egg - is perpetually catching up and I don't like that.

This is mainly me being egotistical, but I am sad that you totally stole my language to describe Egg. I thought "perpetually catching up" was a cool way to put it, and I felt cool & original.

I'm beginning to second-guess my townread on Egg. I initially thought his analysis was incredibly town and impressive. However, him being

perpetually behind on catching up

reads to me more like a crutch to not contribute than it is an actual attempt to be up to speed.

I'll fight u, Egg/AKA plagiarist!!