Newbie 1717: Newbies Through the Looking Glass (Game Over)

[Harkonnen97]

If I was scum, I would kill Simoyd tonight, because he is being universally townread by everyone.

Postie, if you were scum, who would you kill tonight?

[RadiantCowbells]

100%.

You can verify it yourself.

[Simoyd]

Really, really like my Accountant vote.

I guess your record of being able to perfectly read my alignment has finally come to an end

Accountant admitted it was perfect

[Simoyd]

at least 3 people are scum leaning me

[Postie]

Need sleep so RC can take things from here.
Idk how I'd handle Titus so JK/Doc on RC tonight please.
If I die, no getting paranoid of Simoyd, okay? That slot's town.

Thanks.

[Harkonnen97]

Why didn't you answer me ;(

No longer cute.

[innocentvillager]

100%.

You can verify it yourself.

100% from how many games..?

2 for 2 is pretty different from 10 for 10, for example.

[RadiantCowbells]

4 / 4

[innocentvillager]

4 / 4

Okay, let's use math to figure out how good RC is at reading Accountant lol

Probabilistically (approximations)

1/4 chance Accountant is scum, 3/4 chance of town

I'm guessing 2 scum (saw 2 scumgames of Accountant) and 2 town.

Random chance would say (1/4)*(1/4)*(3/4)*(3/4) = 3.5% chance of calling alignment correctly every time

Hm, that's pretty good. Okay, I'll buy you on your meta provided that you aren't scum, which I'm estimating to be below a 10% chance at this point.

I still want Blank lynched, but I'm game for an Accountant lynch too I guess if Blank's lynch isn't going anywhere. This is a bit troubling, since at least one of Lycan/Blank/Accountant are going to flip town, but I have a good feeling the scumteam is in there.

[RadiantCowbells]

Just tell me if you're a diagonal PR (Tracker/JK/Cop) you will check Titus tonight if this is a scum flip, not one of those 3.

[Harkonnen97]

These numbers make no sense IV lol

[innocentvillager]

These numbers make no sense IV lol

Why not?

Just tell me if you're a diagonal PR (Tracker/JK/Cop) you will check Titus tonight if this is a scum flip, not one of those 3.

[Harkonnen97]

RC didn't just randomly guess Accountant's role in all of those games. I doubt that he just said "Accountant is scum!" and was right about it. He used logic and read him.

This isn't about numbers, it's about .... I don't know the word in English

[Simoyd]

so vote accountant then IV

[BlankFace]

Sorry RC, but I'll be too lazy tomorrow to make a wall

I suspect Blank's slot mostly because all 3 players who were in it have been scummy.

Pants

- No offense to him, but he was pretty useless. As a SE he should know better, that Town needs to be active to win.

snoe

- I don't like his 310. It looks to me like he is paranoid, and he desperately wants to get out of the bad position that Pants left him in, so he tries to snatch some town cred with those notes of his. The problem is, there is not really a point in them. I don't know what's the English idiom for that. Like, it looks like a big deal on the outside, but in reality, it's nothing.

When I questioned him about them, he admitted that he wrote them so we can townread him. He excused himself that he did it because Pants was being scumread alot, but he contradicted himself, because earlier he didn't want to admit that his slot is scummy, and instead said that Pants was a null read.

2) I need to give you all SOMETHING with which to read my slot.

Pants, bless him … didn’t

.

Pants did 5 posts and they were lazy and prod-dodging.

Scummy in a larger sense - they contributed nothing

.

First you say that Pants was a null read. Now you are saying a different thing.

Blank

- I really don't like him supporting Accountant so very much. If Accountant is lynched and flips town, it will look good on him. And if Blank gets lynched and flips scum, it will look bad on Accountant.

Also, we have 2 days left, right? Why hammer when we can discuss more, even for a little bit.

UNVOTE:

Blank is at L-2.

Did you even read my page 5-10 qualms? Accountant started strong but isn't my top read anymore in the slightest. Just because I haven't made a tier list doesn't mean I don't have suspicions. Accountant and Simoyd are at the top right now but I'm hesitant to say for sure until I make to where I replaced in.

I'm also incredibly drunk right now, I'll finish it tomorrow morning. But if you can't read between the lines and see my focus is right now, with how far I've analyzed, I'd have to say you aren't reading the posts I make that are actually meaningful.

HoS[\b] IV&Titus for that L-1 and intent before I'm even caught up fully.

[Simoyd]

HoS

IV&Titus for that L-1 and intent before I'm even caught up fully.

We're don't have a whole lot of time left. And people tend to go awol on weekends... We should really put accountant at L-1 asap

[RadiantCowbells]

Get Accountant to L-1 so he can make his PR claim which I will promptly hammer him through.

[innocentvillager]

RC didn't just randomly guess Accountant's role in all of those games. I doubt that he just said "Accountant is scum!" and was right about it. He used logic and read him.

This isn't about numbers, it's about .... I don't know the word in English

If town completely randomly determined who to kill, town would win roughly 35-55% of the time.

Town, in this setup, wins 48.9% of the time. Generally, it's pretty close to 50-50, in an effort to make it balanced for both factions.

My point is, reads do not make it THAT much more likely for town to win versus random chance. It will of course, help, but not substantially. The probability that RC predicts Accountant's role correctly in all 4 games where Accountant was scum twice and town twice is 3.5% based on random chance. That's about 1 in 30. Reading might theoretically push these odds up to 1 in 15 max, but the fact that RC can pull off a 3.5% chance read on someone is clearly indicative of something mathematically significant, you can't deny that. How could this manifest? Most likely, he has some sort of system for reading Accountant that has worked.

Was he just lucky? Could've been. 1/30 odds, if we're not to believe that RC is a good scumhunter at all. But mafia itself is a game of probabilities. I'm willing to weigh such odds in my decision to further scumread Accountant.

[innocentvillager]

so vote accountant then IV

I still want Blank gone, but it doesn't look like we're going to be able to decide on Blank with the little time we have.

VOTE: Accountant

I believe that's L-1.

[innocentvillager]

If we do end up lynching Accountant, Blank/Lycan need to die tomorrow REGARDLESS of the flip.

I'm also incredibly drunk right now, I'll finish it tomorrow morning. But if you can't read between the lines and see my focus is right now, with how far I've analyzed, I'd have to say you aren't reading the posts I make that are actually meaningful.

HoS[\b] IV&Titus for that L-1 and intent before I'm even caught up fully.

Lucky you, you might get another 2 weeks to cure your hangover and craft your scummish prose.

What's a HoS??

We're out of time. If we get a PR claim, we need to be able to account for that before we hammer. No last minute PR claims and wagon shifting. We don't have time to wait for you to catch up.

[RadiantCowbells]

IV stop.

[innocentvillager]

IV stop.

Stop with what? I did what you wanted, with the L-1. I just hope you're right. I've already accepted to place my faith in your empirical successes.

[RadiantCowbells]

Here's what's going to happen.

If this flips town all PRs can do whatever.

If it flips scum I am going to assume that diagonal PR is auto targetting Titus.
That means if you flip later and haven't claimed we are taking Titus as confirmed town.

Just do it, please.

[innocentvillager]

Why didn't you answer me ;(

No longer cute.

Not game related but are you seriously really awkwardly trying to hit on Postie.... this post makes me so uncomfortable lol.

Here's what's going to happen.

If this flips town all PRs can do whatever.

If it flips scum I am going to assume that diagonal PR is auto targetting Titus.
That means if you flip later and haven't claimed we are taking Titus as confirmed town.

Just do it, please.

Okay, I think this is fair. If we trust that RC has scum pegged this time and Accountant flips scum, I think diagonal PR should listen to him. I'm fine with this form of sheeping since RC establishes prior credibility by leading lynch on a confirmed scum, instead of just appealing to authority. And of course, if Accountant flips town, then RC's credibility plummets, so PRs can do whatever they want.

[Accountant]

Why is Blank not six feet under yet? Also, are you guys seriously wanting to lynch me because RC has a perfect record of reading my alignment?