Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

when the mod only has to less posts than you something is wrong pacca

Roasted!

Not sure what my thoughts are on this.

Shotty is still definitely town
Kappy and Ranger likely town
mhsmith looking townie but maybe he's really good at being scum (never played w/before)
BTD is at null again for me
Music and Mail at null
Touka is looking scummish
Alpaca is still null

1) so why is ranger town for you? I've made my case, I think it's a pretty solid one, do you think the points I'm making are wrong, or do you think I'm missing something important?
2) feel free to skim the links in my wiki, it's a pretty open book if you're curious.

[BTD6_maker]

1) mislynches do happen. But "even if you're mislynched it's ok" is terrible voting logic, much less hammering logic. Take responsibility for your votes and your reads. Don't ever vote while hedging it away as "well even if I screw this up no big deal". It's Wolfy to try and deflect responsibility for your actions. Were you not a newbie, it'd be pretty close to a scum claim. As it is, it's votable stuff.

2) voting someone, or allowing others to vote someone, based on false pretenses, cannot reasonably be acceptable. It's a scum tell. Votes, and the reasons behind them, are FUNDAMENTALLY your biggest alignment tells. If you make it ok for votes to be dishonest, you'll basically never catch Mafia. Fundamentally, Mafia are insincere and dishonest in their voting, as well as their reads, and their engagement with the game as a whole. This insincerity and dishonesty is how you catch them.

3) Shotty may well have been joking. But ranger appeared to take the joke seriously. Thats the point I'm making. Making a bad point is bad. Sheeping a bad point is worse. Screwup? It's possible. But at some point, "ranger is Mafia" simply becomes more likely than "wow ranger is playing a really strange and suspicious town game". If I got more from you and alpaca, and could develop a better read on you both, that'd be helpful to either confirm or cast into doubt my read. But as it is, ranger is my best read.

Ps note that I am NOT justifying this with "if ranger is town, no biggie, she can help us anyway". I think she's Mafia, therefore I'm voting for her. Worrying about stumping status should be a far secondary concern to any right thinking townie, compared to finding and lynching Mafia.

That was not my entire justification. I hammered because I was confident that IV was scum. The fact that a mislynch wouldn't be too damaging was a small helpful bonus but I didn't lynch because of that. I have to at least acknowledge the possibility of a mislynch as any lynch can be a mislynch.

[mhsmith0]

Technically you could make pretty much anything into any claim you wanted.

VOTE: IV

If you are scum (and scum would obviously claim Tree and/or breadcrumb Tree) then good. If you are really a Tree, Town hasn't lost much. You can still be an active scumhunter after death.

The basic issue is you hammered while essentially stating "I don't know if you're Mafia, it'd be cool if you were, but if not that's cool too". Obviously that wasn't all your justification, but it was part of it. And it's basically a deflection of responsibility for your vote, as you're making your vote. And the specific justification you made (vt claim being specifically suspicious) was highly questionable as well.

I'm unsure if it's truly AI for you because you're still pretty new, and it could simply be an error. But it's the sort of thing that, as either alignment, you should strike from your game. Hammers are a big deal. "I'm hammering but no biggie" is never something you want to effecfively be saying. Stating doubt is fine, but if that's your perspective, your message should be more like "This is truly my best guess, and I find reasons _____ compelling, and I'm sorry if I'm wrong". That is an ok message to send. What you'd said really wasn't. Which is part of why you're in my lynchable range.

[mhsmith0]

Nulltown: Kappy, InnocentVillager
Null: Alexcellent, Smv, KickAssAndGiggle, Shotty, Alpaca
Nullscum: Music And Mail

These are incredibly weak.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

All my reads are practically null. You are a miniscule townread but I believe pressure is the key to escaping RVS. The read is too weak to matter much.

Despite being a scum in Open 638 your reads were suspiciously accurate (scumreading both me and Masquerade together). Perhaps there is something more to your scum hunting.

I also scumread Music and Mail but it's a weak scumread. It's certainly better than voting a townread for virtually no pressure.

VOTE: Music and Mail

Ranger's overconfidence seems to come from a scum perspective. What I mean is that a scum already knows exactly who the scum are and thus may give stronger reads than their Town-self. These reads could be in either direction. A scum might strong scumread a Townie for a chance of an easy mislynch or may strong scumread a partner to avoid detection after the partner flips.

Ranger is my best scumread now. Still only weak-moderate but worth voting on.

VOTE: Ranger

This is now L-1

It puts enough pressure on Ranger now (some others still scumread her such as Alexcellent) so that she can't afford to give bad reasoning now or simply refuse to explain a read. Explaining anything benefits Town. We are in the dark. Scum already know who scum are.

VOTE: Music and Mail

I now weakly scumread Ranger. I thought that Ranger was much more likely scum if IV flips scum but IV has flipped Town. Music and Mail is now my strongest scumread.

Ranger, when you promised to get lynched was that some sort of gambit? What was your purpose?

IV, why did you claim scum? From what I can see it was to have a chance at catching out the scum that know you are Town.

VOTE: Ranger

Right now a Ranger lynch looks more viable than a M&M lynch. I don't scumread Ranger as strongly but I do think that a Ranger lynch is beneficial to Town. If Ranger is Town, she can still give all her reads tomorrow and help Town. If she is scum, then perfect.

Ranger was actually my weakest scum read out of {Ranger, Touka, Mhsmith, M&M}. The scumread was mainly due to her self-voting and "promise" to get lynched. Now I don't see that much reason to scumread her so I should vote another scumread.

VOTE: Mhsmith

Not as strong as M&M, but a lone vote on M&M won't accomplish anything at this stage.

These are the rest of your votes. They are, by and large, poor votes. Little reasoning attached, bandwagoning fairly often (you were hammer on iv, l-1 on both me and ranger), and more disclaiming responsibility in 420, and basically saying "this is just pressure" in your l-1 ranger vote at 152 (the implication of that vote was that if ranger DID explain herself you'd hop off that wagon). What you're presenting with your voting history is that you are much more concerned with getting ANY lynch than you are with getting the RIGHT lynch. Which is pretty fundamentally a Mafia perspective.

So I'd like you to explain how you currently see the game. Who do you believe in the back and forth between me and ranger, and why? What has convinced you? Or do you think it's a town v town fight, or maybe wolf v wolf theater? Again, if so, why do you think it? I want to see evidence that you're engaged in trying to solve the games mystery, rather than just hoping to coast by and get through another lynch without too much scrutiny.

Ps from your 606, why do you "know that what Ranger did is a mistake"? Are you saying you "know" that she is town?

Pps

Ranger should have showed a steady read progression with IV slowly dropping from strong scum to medium scum to weak scum, but instead chose to lie.

isn't quite right. What ranger (if town) should have done was unvoted and taken the time to sort the slot out. Iv could have stayed her strongest read, but with enough doubt to take him off l-1. Or there could have been some specific readable moment that shot him up her reads list. There are a lot of legitimate ways to have approached that situation for town!ranger. My problem is, she didn't choose any of them.

[mhsmith0]

On a different note... @mm, drmy and touka: I'm starting to wonder if ranger has more or less spewed alpaca town (i.e. she wouldn't have naked read him town on "gut" alone if she was his buddy, and if she actually was town, then what boils down to a "soul read" may be legitimate). I don't know Rangers wolf meta well enough to know if she'd ever dump a partner at the top of a reads lost for explicitly no real reason like that. How familiar are you two w her meta? Is that something she'd do in this situation?

[Ranger]

You mean it's laughable that they'd get to the point of an actual lynch

It's laughable Touka would even cast a serious vote, because beeboy knows RadiantCowbells never gets lynched as scum, and certainly wouldn't suddenly decide to make it his mission to be among the few who could say "I bussed RC hard enough that he got lynched!".

[Ranger]

Is that something she'd do in this situation?

Yes, it is.

[BTD6_maker]

In my opinion you and Ranger are likely Town vs scum. A scum theatre would seem like too much WIFOM and speculation at the moment. It is still a possibility though. I scumread you both so I think Town vs Town is more unlikely, though it is possible if M&M flips scum. If not, chances are at least one of you is scum.

[mhsmith0]

In my opinion you and Ranger are likely Town vs scum. A scum theatre would seem like too much WIFOM and speculation at the moment. It is still a possibility though. I scumread you both so I think Town vs Town is more unlikely, though it is possible if M&M flips scum. If not, chances are at least one of you is scum.

Why do you scum read me? Why do you scum read ranger?

[mhsmith0]

There are many things in the mhsmith wall I could respond to, but he's baiting me to fight him.
If someone asks outside of {mhsmith, Music and Mail}, I'll respond, otherwise, no, not entering a wall war.

Btd, what do you think of htis specifically? What questions of ranger or me do YOU want answered?
That also applies to the rest of the board too. Surely there is SOMETHING in our back and forth that catches people's eyes and is worthy of additional discussion.

[mhsmith0]

Edit: btd had made a couple notes on my wall post yesterday. But I want to see more from him, and more from the rest as well.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

@BTD why do you think that Smith is scum?

[Quaroath]

Touka has requested replacement. Deadline on hold until replacement found.

Music and mail have been prodded.

[mhsmith0]

sorry to see you go touka

[innocentvillager]

touka replacing out sounds like boredom. Scum wouldn't replace out if town is so bored that they just autolose. This actually might make it likelier that Touka's slot is town. Alexcellent also lurked a lot, despite still playing in other games on this site.

[mhsmith0]

I think Beeboy really doesn't like playing w rc. Not sure it's AI. Also I'm drunk and at poker night.

[RadiantCowbells]

then why the hell did they replace in?

RC head is replacing out. I can't stand this game.

[mhsmith0]

Probably beeboy wanted to see how a game would go a an alt. and then he slipped. Sorry to see u go rc

[Kappy]

touka replacing out sounds like boredom. Scum wouldn't replace out if town is so bored that they just autolose. This actually might make it likelier that Touka's slot is town. Alexcellent also lurked a lot, despite still playing in other games on this site.

Yeah, I agree.
Btw, I'm back!

[mhsmith0]

Lol qj just sucked out a str8 against aa. Poker.

[Ranger]

Tired, don't have much to say, not that I would anyway.

[drmyshottyizsik]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

[BTD6_maker]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

[mhsmith0]

Ya I don't like playing with RC much either sometimes. RC has a tendency to throw elbows if you know what I mean. It can be fun, but RC has a way of just getting to people sometimes.

I agree. RC just says "you're scum" or something along those lines, never with justification, and commonly wron, which has led to my "perpetual scumread" on him. Every time I see RC, I know he's going to be as stubborn as always and detrimental to Town.

Are you saying that your m&m read early in the game was just a play style read? Nothing particular to this game, just an "rc is playing, he must be Mafia" sort of thing?

[Music and Mail]

I'm having trouble with this game too so Mail head will be replacing out as well. Sorry!
Good luck, town!

-- Mail