Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[The Show Must Go On]

Votecount 1.18:

Postie (3): duppin, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
Aristophanes (1): Elyse
Elyse (1): Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
BulletNLynchproof (1): Postie
Wingback (0):
GuiltyLion (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (2): Aristophanes, BulletNLynchproof

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-12 17:00:00).

Song:

Queen: Killer Queen

Notes:

Dynamite, with a laser beam, guaranteed to blow your mind!

[Aristophanes]

@GL, re: Postie's Scum Partners

I don't recall Postie being a big busser, and I'd have to check, but I'm fairly certain she is rather against it when possible. Because of that, and her stance in this game, I'd say it is quite unlikely she would have done so. This makes it very unlikely that there is scum in GL, BNL, or Fire (Fire being the weakest of these reads).

She has suspected TTH and Duppin, but not acted on them. Having TTH with GL in the "Lynch these when I flip town" thing could be her throwing a scum mate in there to throw us off the scent.their disagreement looks unnatural and seems like a good way to distance should they lose Postie. The timing and placement on the wagon supports this.

Duppin interactions have been a lot of easy questions, as if he's throwing her a bone and helping her get a footing. Asking the same questions a few times also let's her be annoyed/angry (which people often townread) and let's her post "content"(even though it's just repeating the same content).

This is the pool I'd expect her scummates to be in. Distanced and shaded, but not pushed, and creating fake content.

[duppin]

Wait what, are you really suggesting me and Postie could be scumbuddies?

[Aristophanes]

Wait what, are you really suggesting me and Postie could be scumbuddies?

Indeed I am!

[duppin]

So you think I start a train on my scumbuddy for defending the player I was pushing? (You)

[Wingback]

Caught up to page six. I'll catch up fully in the next hour or two but I want to make a checkpoint here as my reads are surprisingly well-developed for so early in the game.

Postie and Aristophanes are scumreads. Postie's townread on Elyse in Post 111 struck me as

exactly

the kind of read I would make as scum if a townie incorrectly townread me. I don't see how Postie could have genuinely formed that read given Elyse's content so far but I do see it making a lot of sense as scum not wanting to antagonize Elyse and shake that read.

Aristphanes's Post 32 doesn't make sense in context of Post 30 as TTH, Fire Assasin and Duppin have already pointed out. He also strikes me as under the radar and fluffy early on in the game although these are not conclusive so I'll see how I feel after catching up.

TellTaleHeart is a solid townread for either saying exactly what I was thinking (Postie) or being the first to make a valid point (Aristo), on both these major issues. Duppin's discussion with Fire Assasin and generally probing scumhunting has me leaning town on him as well. BNL's reads in general made sense given his posting so far and I also liked his saying what I was thinking on Duppin. Fire Assasin's case on Elyse was bad but I don't find it scummy. In fact, I found Fire's general activity and engagement to be town. Elyse's response to it looked town. I thought Fire made himself a rather easy target by pushing such a case but Elyse not jumping on him and pushing back when it would have been so easy to do makes me lean town.

GuiltyLion is a null read. If I'm wrong on one of Postie or Aristo, that's where I'd look. I did think the comment in Post 137 that everyone looks town enough looked like a townie thought process so I have a very slight townlean there. I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger.

Going to go through the next twelve pages now. Let me know if there's anything specific you need elaborated on or want me to look at.

[Aristophanes]

So you think I start a train on my scumbuddy for defending the player I was pushing? (You)

I don't think you gave yourself much choice really.

Had you not reacted as you did, questioning her town lean on me, it would have been weird. From there it escalated into a way where you couldn't have backed down without suspicion being on you should she flip. I would say that your walls were a saving grace, as it would be a bit much for a bus, but neither of your arguments against each other are very good, as if they weren't meant to actually create a wagon.

[Aristophanes]

I gotta read that Wingback post!

[duppin]

So you think I start a train on my scumbuddy for defending the player I was pushing? (You)

I don't think you gave yourself much choice really.

Had you not reacted as you did, questioning her town lean on me, it would have been weird. From there it escalated into a way where you couldn't have backed down without suspicion being on you should she flip. I would say that your walls were a saving grace, as it would be a bit much for a bus, but neither of your arguments against each other are very good, as if they weren't meant to actually create a wagon.

It would have made sense if you thought I was bussing or attempting to distance myself from her by doing this and then banking on the lynch not going through yes, but saying I backed myself into a corner where I had to vote on her makes no sense. I think you should go back to her post that started it all (#244). If you truly still believe that to be the case, then I'd like you to point out exactly when it happened, especially given the context (as I was questioning her).

What I get from this is honestly just that you're not really paying attention to the game if this is what you believe. If she is scum then it is possible I am bussing her (but let's be honest, still fairly unlikely), but I honestly think the reason you provided is rather absurd.

[GuiltyLion]

I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger

This is referring to her vote on Fire Assassin, correct? Why do you call the FA vote an early counter wagon when Elyse was already an early counterwagon? Like I feel like you could make this point about Postie pushing any non-Aristophanes wagon, or any non-Postie player pushing a non-Aristophanes wagon, it doesn't actually link the two of them together (outside of hindsight if they are actually both scum).

idk I like most of the things that you've said but they feel a little

too

consistent with the current thread temperature. I'd rather flip within Postie/Aristo first though.

[Postie]

I'm sorry what? That's honestly a pretty bad argument. Basically you're saying my logic is flawed if I'm scumreading Aristo for not playing his towngame? Just because it doesn't feel like his usual scumplay does not mean I can't find it suspicious.

And to be honest I don't really agree that I should say that I'm just doing this for pressure.

Him not playing his town game = most logical conclusion is he is not town.

This seems to be at the heart of our disagreement and I'm not sure there's much we can do about it other than agree to disagree.
I strongly oppose any assertion that anyone not playing to their typical towngame is likely scum because of it. Playstyles can vary from game to game.

But your post gave the impression you thought he was town

Yeah, but, I didn't. Not much else I can say there.

It sounds like you are reaching the conclusion that him not playing his town game or scum game (which I can't tell yet) makes him more likely to be town and that's the logic I don't get.

And again, that's not even remotely what I'm saying. I'm saying that him not playing to his typical towngame doesn't make him scum, and have formed a townread on him

independantly

of that.

[Postie]

BNL joins my townpool! And no, that's not because something something reverse OMGUS. It's because the way he's jumping on and off my wagon makes little sense from a scum PoV.

RE: OMGUS accusations - just because I am scumreading the people on my wagon does not mean I am OMGUSing them. I'll go into detail on my reads in a bit so you have a clearer picture of where I'm at.

[Postie]

Hey GL, tell me what you think of Ari's 436 please.

[Postie]

*426

[GuiltyLion]

426 is super bad. As duppin pointed out, the idea that duppin and Postie are scumbuddies is ridiculous. Also Ari ruled out Fire far too easily, saying that you wouldn't "bus" him when he wasn't really ever close to being lynched.

I was hoping to see if he came close or mentioned my latent suspicion of a Postie/FA team (assuming Town!Ari) and he didn't even seem to consider it, ruling it out for an arbitrary and illogical reason. So it wasn't what I was looking for, and he's scummier for it.

[Postie]

So his post was scummy for not being logical enough and not agreeing with you enough? Do I have that right?

[Postie]

Oh yeah and

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

So his post was scummy for not being logical enough and not agreeing with you enough? Do I have that right?

Yeah, pretty much

[Postie]

Yeah, Ari, see, this is what I was talking about. GL should know better than this.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[Postie]

Oh my god I was just clicking randomly through GL's post history to find a town game to refresh my memory of what town!GL felt like... and for some reason I clicked quite a while back to a game from 2015 and just like... this is just perfect...

Biggest thing for me (that I still always try to focus on) is to think about motivation/intent, rather than transparency/clarity/effort/sometimes-even-literal-content. It's very easy to nitpick at something that someone does that you didn't understand, or that you didn't like, and assume they must be scum for it. However this is a dangerous fallacy because something is only truly scummy if doing it benefits scum more than it benefits town, if scum are more likely to do it than town would.

[Postie]

Here let's put those side-by-side...

So his post was scummy for not being logical enough and not agreeing with you enough? Do I have that right?

Yeah, pretty much

Biggest thing for me (that I still always try to focus on) is to

think about motivation/intent

,

rather than transparency/clarity/effort/sometimes-even-literal-content

. It's very easy to nitpick at something that

someone does that you didn't understand, or that you didn't like, and assume they must be scum for it

. However this is a

dangerous fallacy

because something is only truly scummy if doing it benefits scum more than it benefits town, if scum are more likely to do it than town would.

[Postie]

Explanations and things!

---

FIRE ASSASSIN

I was compelled to say that because i want to hear more from them in general? Getting an idea of their thoughts might help me understand their thought process and whats going through their mind? I feel like that is the most stereotypical answer I can give you but I also feel like your question is such a time waster. The only reason I am answering it is because I don't want to just post stuff like "Why are you asking stupid questions?"

This feels town. I do not know why.

For example what is your motivation in telling me I have the worst case ever on you?
Trying to get me to change my mind? Discredit? It doesn't seem to be point out flaws.

What is motivation in me to "frabricate" a case like this on you?

I tend to think a town player would either see sincerity in attempts to sort players and just throw me off as misguided town

, but you take the fence position.

I might be conf biasing my read here

, but I really want you lynched more now.

The bolded here is an incredibly towny way of thinking, especially the first bit. The "why can't you see how town I'm being!?"-mindset is something that's very difficult to fake convincingly as scum.

Nice post. I give it 10/10 stars.
Want to go into your read on aristophanes anymore? He hasn't posted in awhile, but this game is kind of dead so lets make busy talk!

see this is me making busy talk

I definitely think scum!Fire in this position would avoid getting snarky, because it makes this post come across as a lot less helpful than it could have been if he hadn't.

---

ARISTOPHANES

Explained in post 279 and 284/336.

---

IPROBABLYSUCK/WINGBACK

Wait, is there really THREE votes on Aristophanes this early in the game? I get its RVS but I've never seen the point in piling more than one vote on somebody in RVS. Not saying anybody there is scum but I don't think you should put somebody onto L-2 so quickly.

I'm not sure why but this paranoia and the way he's expressing it feels extremely towny.

Okay, first off, I wasn't ''worried'' about it. I'm not retarded and I know none of you would actually be dumb enough to hammer on page 2.

Secondly I HAVE seen three votes on somebody before in RVS. I just never seen the point, make up your own joke, don't piggyback off of someone else's :/

And that little comment was to try and kickstart discussion. The game wasn't really going anywhere by that point so I decided to give us a little push.

And the way he gets slightly offended here about people's comments about his comment is a pretty damn towny follow-up and looks really genuine.

---

ELYSE

I'm guessing FA is going to say I'm scum with Aris for saying that FA is looked upon favorably for the Aris wagon which is stupid since I obviously meant that he's at the forefront of the Aris push.

He looks good for scumhunting and stuff. And I'm also scumreading Aris, so if you incorrectly interpreted it as me saying he'll look good because Aris is flipping scum, that's in line with my reads.

If it's something else then idk lol.

Gut town vibes from this, especially the bolded.

You're literally blowing things up to try to make me look bad and now you're backtracking on your read like I thought you would earlier.

Strong townfeels from this.

Now that I've noticed Elyse's join date and post count I'm a bit less confident on this read, but she's still a very solid townlean.

---

BULLETNLYNCHPROOF

Just the way he took me off L-1 and started rethinking his read struck me felt town. As scum it would really make more sense to keep me at L-1 and hope someone hammers.

---

So that leaves GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart, and duppin. I want GuiltyLion lynched today for what I highlighted in 445;

GL is playing directly contrary to how he

knows

he should be playing the game as town.

After that town needs to decide between TellTaleHeart and duppin. My gut says TTH is the second scum but idk.

tl;dr vote GuiltyLion

[Postie]

Just the way he took me off L-1 and started rethinking his read on me felt town.

EBWOP

[Fire Assassin]

I am not lynching postie today, Id prefer a aristophanes wagon much more:
VOTE: Aristophanes

[The Show Must Go On]

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