Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[The Show Must Go On]

Votecount 1.19:

Postie (3): duppin, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
Aristophanes (2): Elyse, Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
Elyse (0):
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Wingback (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (2): Aristophanes, BulletNLynchproof

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-12 17:00:00).

Song:

Queen: Under Pressure

Notes:

Pressure~

[Postie]

aristophanes wagon

Whyyyyy

[duppin]

Postie could you explain your scumreads?

[duppin]

I strongly oppose any assertion that anyone not playing to their typical towngame is likely scum because of it. Playstyles can vary from game to game.

Does that mean he should gain immunity for playing differently? Why does it make me more likely to be scum if I pushed on this?

While you claim you weren't townreading him initially, how exactly am I to understand what you're saying now? You keep claiming that anyone not playing their typical towngame isn't necessarily scum which is true, but they aren't necessarily town either. I honestly still don't like your reaction.

But we can probably talk about this for ages. Right now I'd just like to hear your scumreads.

[duppin]

I'd mainly like to hear your read on me and TTH.

[BNL]

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

What the fuck...

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

Please give a link to a game where you were able to identify an entire scum team on Day 1 based on associatives.

I'll wait.

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

Alternatively, an explanation for why Ari couldn't be scum with Postie would be good.

Quoting the same thing 3 times with different comments is showing that TTH is trying to engage with me in the game, and I think that is town.

[BNL]

Caught up to page six. I'll catch up fully in the next hour or two but I want to make a checkpoint here as my reads are surprisingly well-developed for so early in the game.

Postie and Aristophanes are scumreads. Postie's townread on Elyse in Post 111 struck me as

exactly

the kind of read I would make as scum if a townie incorrectly townread me. I don't see how Postie could have genuinely formed that read given Elyse's content so far but I do see it making a lot of sense as scum not wanting to antagonize Elyse and shake that read.

Aristphanes's Post 32 doesn't make sense in context of Post 30 as TTH, Fire Assasin and Duppin have already pointed out. He also strikes me as under the radar and fluffy early on in the game although these are not conclusive so I'll see how I feel after catching up.

TellTaleHeart is a solid townread for either saying exactly what I was thinking (Postie) or being the first to make a valid point (Aristo), on both these major issues. Duppin's discussion with Fire Assasin and generally probing scumhunting has me leaning town on him as well. BNL's reads in general made sense given his posting so far and I also liked his saying what I was thinking on Duppin. Fire Assasin's case on Elyse was bad but I don't find it scummy. In fact, I found Fire's general activity and engagement to be town. Elyse's response to it looked town. I thought Fire made himself a rather easy target by pushing such a case but Elyse not jumping on him and pushing back when it would have been so easy to do makes me lean town.

GuiltyLion is a null read. If I'm wrong on one of Postie or Aristo, that's where I'd look. I did think the comment in Post 137 that everyone looks town enough looked like a townie thought process so I have a very slight townlean there. I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger.

Going to go through the next twelve pages now. Let me know if there's anything specific you need elaborated on or want me to look at.

I also like Wingback for town, for the following reasons:
1) Many of his thought processes match mine. These are my stance on GuiltyLion a while ago (though he's leaning scum now), and read on Duppin and Fire Assassin.
2) With the structure of the game so far, lurking is a towntell, or at least he isn't scum with Postie or Aristo. He has shown that he has been been online, just that he was not posting. If he was scum with either Postie or Aristo, I'd expect his buddy to say in the scum PT something like "Partner, I'm at L-1, DO SOMETHING", and he wouldn't be just stuck at page six.

[BNL]

If I'm right about GL/TTH then them swinging an L-1 wagon over from someone townreading GL to an L-1 wagon on someone scumreading both of them makes perfect sense.

There's a problem with this. Postie hasn't stated a scumread on TTH before GL voted her.

[Elyse]

I do think it is possible you are town, but I don't think your play has been towny at all and I simply can't understand the motivation behind what you did with Aristo. I'll gladly admit that I'm perhaps reading a bit too much into it. That does not really change the fact that I find your play rather suspicious. I also feel like you're OMGUS'ing quite a bit, but I could be wrong so I'd really like to hear your reads.

Ooh I hate this post. And every time duppin says "to be honest" or "honestly" I wince.

BNL joins my townpool! And no, that's not because something something reverse OMGUS. It's because the way he's jumping on and off my wagon makes little sense from a scum PoV.

RE: OMGUS accusations - just because I am scumreading the people on my wagon does not mean I am OMGUSing them. I'll go into detail on my reads in a bit so you have a clearer picture of where I'm at.

I agree with this. BNL has become a townread for me.

I'd much rather lynch Aristophanes than Postie today. I think they make sense as a team but imo, I can't see Postie's buddy being anyone

but

Aristophanes, whereas Aristophanes makes more sense with other people. I know this is stupid for D1 associations but Aristophanes has had a grand total of 0 posts that make me look town. Postie's reads are pretty good even if I disagree with some of them and she's had moments that make me think she's town. I was townreading her until recently.

Tentative townread on Wingback. I liked the post but like GL said, it was pretty much in line what everyone has been saying.

@Fire Assassin
Stop ignoring me. I've asked you multiple times and bolded it. Why did you say that narrowing down the scumpool was something "horrible"?

[Fire Assassin]

@Fire Assassin
Stop ignoring me. I've asked you multiple times and bolded it. Why did you say that narrowing down the scumpool was something "horrible"?

The way it was narrowed down had a majority of players in it, and the way it was organized seemed like it could be lining up lynches.

I almost wanted to ignore this post again btw, don't know what made me decide to answer it, I guess my morning is pretty bright.

[Fire Assassin]

aristophanes wagon

Whyyyyy

I don't agree with your analysis on it, and to be honest I think your reasons for townreading me and others are very weak and not very alignment indicative. For example "Scum!Fire would not be snarky here" isn't really a good reason, as I can be snarky at any point as either alignment I believe.

[duppin]

Ooh I hate this post. And every time duppin says "to be honest" or "honestly" I wince.

Well to be honest I honestly don't care.

Why do you hate the post though?

[Fire Assassin]

Ooh I hate this post. And every time duppin says "to be honest" or "honestly" I wince.

Well to be honest I honestly don't care.

Why do you hate the post though?

I honestly think this wins the post award for the game.

[GuiltyLion]

Oh my god I was just clicking randomly through GL's post history to find a town game to refresh my memory of what town!GL felt like... and for some reason I clicked quite a while back to a game from 2015 and just like... this is just perfect...

Biggest thing for me (that I still always try to focus on) is to think about motivation/intent, rather than transparency/clarity/effort/sometimes-even-literal-content. It's very easy to nitpick at something that someone does that you didn't understand, or that you didn't like, and assume they must be scum for it. However this is a dangerous fallacy because something is only truly scummy if doing it benefits scum more than it benefits town, if scum are more likely to do it than town would.

I really don't like this push from Postie.

First, some context - the post she quoted is from a Newbie game, where someone asked "If you could go back in time and tell yourself one thing about this game before you started playing, what would it be?". So like, from the context of the question I'm answering, it means that the "dangerous fallacy" is a pattern of thinking that I have fallen into before, or tend to fall into, because I'm literally talking about something I would tell past!me. I even say in the quote that I still always try to focus on it, because it's a mistake that's bitten me many times before.

So even if we grant Postie the point/argument that I'm doing to Aristophanes what I said not to do in this post, her argument is weakened because in context, town!me is saying this is a mistake that I should always try to avoid. That doesn't mean I'm perfect, that doesn't mean town!me will never do it.

But onto my bigger problems with her push - I don't get vibes that Postie is

genuinely

trying to discern my alignment. The way she seems so pleased to have found this apparent contradiction in my play reads as if she cares more about scoring points to show that I'm scum, rather than figure out the Capital-T Truth of who is scum in this game.

Finally, she's ignoring evidence that I'm in town!scumhunting mode in this very game! I specifically asked her this question, MULTIPLE TIMES:

Postie, what's the benefit to scum!BNL or scum!GL of hopping to your wagon here? Especially in my case, as I was already on a wagon that has a high chance of going through today.

Not only do I not immediately see the alleged scum!motivation for BNL's vote there, your reaction also seemed panicky as it was literally the second vote on you. When I think of opportunistic votes, I'm thinking middle-end of the wagon, not beginning of the wagon.

You didn't answer my question. What's the

scum motivation

for BNL to backtrack on his townread and vote you, putting you at L-3? What does he gain from that?

You called it "opportunistic", I'm not seeing the opportunism.

Look at me trying to ask her about BNL's motivations for his play. Now we have two data points, one where I'm doing what I said I shouldn't do, and one where I'm doing what I said I should try to focus on.

[GuiltyLion]

I'd much rather lynch Aristophanes than Postie today. I think they make sense as a team but imo, I can't see Postie's buddy being anyone but Aristophanes, whereas Aristophanes makes more sense with other people.

I can get behind this. I will vote either Postie or Aristophanes, let's just consolidate on one before we get up to a deadline crunch.

[Elyse]

@Fire Assassin
Stop ignoring me. I've asked you multiple times and bolded it. Why did you say that narrowing down the scumpool was something "horrible"?

The way it was narrowed down had a majority of players in it, and the way it was organized seemed like it could be lining up lynches.

I almost wanted to ignore this post again btw, don't know what made me decide to answer it, I guess my morning is pretty bright.

That doesn't make sense. The

way

it was narrowed down? I said that I've cut my scumpool in half, so that is actually wrong. It's not the majority. Plus, my reads aren't set in stone, as shown by my townread on BNL. And if you think that's lining up lynches, then you could say that to anyone who lists their townreads basically. Complete bullshit.

FA is a scumread of mine. After I badgered him about his shitty scumread on me, he blew up something that I did as "horrible" (even though it wasn't) just so he could say "actually that was so bad that it means Elyse is town :/". It fits into his narrative of being pissed at me but also allows him to get rid of his godawful read he's been sticky with since the beginning.

Ooh I hate this post. And every time duppin says "to be honest" or "honestly" I wince.

Well to be honest I honestly don't care.

Why do you hate the post though?

That's not the way I'd expect you to talk to someone whose wagon you engineered and is currently sitting at L-1. It's like you're already trying to wash your hands of the Postie lynch before it happened. "It's possible you're town even though nothing you've done is townie" is a stupid statement in its own right and the rest of it is just a giant fencesit. "I'll gladly admit I'm reading too much into it, but you're play is still suspicious." "I feel like you're OMGUSing but I could be wrong." Like...? You're not taking any stances, contradicting yourself, and seem almost apologetic about your scumread on Postie.

And this is on someone whose wagon you started and is sitting at L-1.

It just feels really off to me, and another reason I'd rather lynch Aristophanes.

[duppin]

Hm, that's a fair read I think.

It is however not what's happening. In no way is that me trying to wash my hands, like how would that even work out? If Postie is town and we mislynch her, would I be opening tomorrow like "so yeah I mentioned that it is possible for her to be town, so I'm definitely not scum"? I get your point, but I fail to see how it would play out.

I actually thought you disliked the post because you thought me and Postie were scumbuddies and it was me trying to work myself out of it but meh.

There was no hidden agenda though. I think she is very suspicious but my main reason for scumreading her comes one single posts. (or at least that is what started it). What made me question my read was simply because of what she said in #435

This seems to be at the heart of our disagreement and I'm not sure there's much we can do about it other than agree to disagree.

Not because it is alignment indicative in any form, but it just made me consider it a possibility that perhaps this has more to do with us simply not agreeing than it has to do with her play being scummy. I obviously still think it is scummy though.

[Fire Assassin]

FA is a scumread of mine. After I badgered him about his shitty scumread on me, he blew up something that I did as "horrible" (even though it wasn't) just so he could say "actually that was so bad that it means Elyse is town :/". It fits into his narrative of being pissed at me but also allows him to get rid of his godawful read he's been sticky with since the beginning.

I think we have different perspectives of what is scummy and town, which is pretty apparent. I don't believe I said I was pissed at you, but your thought process does annoy me. For instance this "blew up something that I did" it just fits into your own narrative, which is funny because you say I have a narrative to apparently change my read on you for, what reasons?

[GuiltyLion]

I strongly oppose any assertion that anyone not playing to their typical towngame is likely scum because of it. Playstyles can vary from game to game.

I want GuiltyLion lynched today for what I highlighted in 445;

GL is playing directly contrary to how he

knows

he should be playing the game as town.

Also, Postie - why is your bolded here different than what you said in 435? Because I'm sitting here seeing you saying Aristophanes is not scum for not playing to his towngame, and then saying I am scum for not playing to something I said I should do as town.

[Elyse]

FA is a scumread of mine. After I badgered him about his shitty scumread on me, he blew up something that I did as "horrible" (even though it wasn't) just so he could say "actually that was so bad that it means Elyse is town :/". It fits into his narrative of being pissed at me but also allows him to get rid of his godawful read he's been sticky with since the beginning.

I think we have different perspectives of what is scummy and town, which is pretty apparent. I don't believe I said I was pissed at you, but your thought process does annoy me. For instance this "blew up something that I did" it just fits into your own narrative, which is funny because you say I have a narrative to apparently change my read on you for, what reasons?

Because I called you out on your shitty read and you couldn't back it up. It made you look bad so you said my narrowing down the scum pool was "so horrible it's town" when it wasn't horrible at all.

[TellTaleHeart]

~Saturday post~

RC

: I'm usually otherwise occupied on weekends so please consider me V/LA then.

I'm writing up my reads list post, hopefully I can get that out tonight but that's probably ambitious. Tomorrow's more realistic.

[Wingback]

Making another checkpoint, this time from pages seven to twelve.

Don't like Postie's townread on TTH at all. The initial read in Post 116 right after TTH pushes her smells of appeasement. Later in Post 164, she gives herself a backdoor saying she's unqualified to read TTH which gives the impression that she wants an out in case the confrontation with TTH turns into a direct clash. In any case, if she thinks she's unqualified to make a read, why is she doing it with such confidence? I'd expect a bit more uncertainty there and

"oh good TTH is town."

doesn't sound like she's hesitant.

Townreading someone for a case but disagreeing with them is stupid and scummy. It's like you're trying to appease Fire without having to take the same stance as him.

First off, I can see town thinking that the way another player is pushing a case is townish, while also thinking that they are wrong. I don't understand why you think that's unlikely.

Secondly, Postie townread TTH right after TTH made a case on her (Post 115 and Post 116). I assume Postie disagrees with the case if she's town. Why isn't that scummy but BNL townreading someone for a case he disagrees with, scummy?

The overjustified, apologetic unvote of Bullet... ... I wouldn't be surprised with a Bullet/Aris scumteam.

Why would Aristo be apologetic to his scumbuddy in thread? It would make more sense if you argued that Aristo was backing off and apologizing to a town-BNL to make sure he doesn't antagonize him, but then you call the two of them a scumteam.

In other news, my scumread on Aristo weakened over these six pages. Don't like Postie's defense of him purely because "the wagon formed organically." It's possible to justify any wagon as a wagon on town. If someone's leading the wagon, they could be scum pursuing a mislynch, or they could be misguided town that scum are taking advantage of. If no one's pushing hard, then it's a town-driven wagon on town. If it formed quickly, scum are on the wagon. If it formed slowly, then scum are waiting to compromise at deadline or the wagon is saturated with scum and town aren't buying it, etc.

What tips the scales for me is the reasoning behind the wagon. I haven't made up my mind about Aristo and I need to re-read him. That's the end of page twelve. I'll finish reading up the remainder of the game before I put my vote down but it's probably going on Postie. Not sure who I think the partner is but I need to re-evaluate Elyse.

[Elyse]

First off, I can see town thinking that the way another player is pushing a case is townish, while also thinking that they are wrong. I don't understand why you think that's unlikely.

I think that's more likely to come from scum. I just don't see a townie reading a case, disagreeing with it, and then townreading someone for it. Like if the case is good, why do you disagree with it? It makes more sense coming from an informed point of view.

Secondly, Postie townread TTH right after TTH made a case on her (Post 115 and Post 116). I assume Postie disagrees with the case if she's town. Why isn't that scummy but BNL townreading someone for a case he disagrees with, scummy?

It's different when the case is about yourself. A lot of people townread others for being suspicious of themselves. I don't know if it's accurate but some people do it.

Why would Aristo be apologetic to his scumbuddy in thread? It would make more sense if you argued that Aristo was backing off and apologizing to a town-BNL to make sure he doesn't antagonize him, but then you call the two of them a scumteam.

You're right. It makes more sense if BNL is town.

[Fire Assassin]

Because I called you out on your shitty read and you couldn't back it up. It made you look bad so you said my narrowing down the scum pool was "so horrible it's town" when it wasn't horrible at all.

Why would it matter what if you called me out on my "shitty" read?

Listen, you are being ridiculously bad, here is why:
If I am scum and I am pressuring you, why would it matter your reaction to it be? I can chalk it all down to w/e I want and I could 'change' my read too, but none of it has to really do with YOU said. Get me? This is because scum do things in order for themselves to look better and push mislynches. If the person they push calls them out on a "bad" read, it doesn't matter so long as everyone else doesn't call them scum for their "bad" read.

scum at some point are going to call a town player scum, and the town player is going to call their read bad. So when you continue on saying "I called out your terribad read" you make it sound like scum only do stuff in reaction to 1 player, which isn't the case.

Scum take the perspective of the whole field. Not just a single player. So in essence if I was scum I could continue calling you scum and say that my read is right and then attempt to discredit you, because you are just 1 PLAYER. You misalign the aspects of what scum attempt to do in games vs your own bubble.

[Elyse]

My point is that your case was so bad that if you actually pursued it, people would take notice and give you heat for it. Hence the back off