Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[Wingback]

Lynch Aristo -> GL -> BNL. Town wins.

[GuiltyLion]

Wingback, what was your reason for townreading Fire again? He was never on Postie, ever.

[Postie]

I don't think Fire is a viable mislynch, GL. You're better off nightkilling him.
6.8/10 for effort though.

[GuiltyLion]

don't you tell me who to nightkill

[GuiltyLion]

actually given the twilight posting alone I'm leaning very strongly towards Ari-Wingback team. Fire would be my wildcard insurance pick if I'm wrong about Wingback, but 513 may be a bonafide scumslip.

[Postie]

but 513 may be a bonafide scumslip.

I'll bite: where did he scumslip?

[GuiltyLion]

His reasoning about Fire being town applies to BNL, not Fire. Fire never pushed for your lynch. It's within the realm of possibility that he just completely flipped the two players in his head, but he did it throughout the post (instead of just in one sentence).

It's hard for me to imagine a town player genuinely reasoning about everyone's alignment making such a mistake. But I also feel like scum shouldn't be so careless either, so I'm not 100% certain. I would have appreciated a response from him while he was here but it doesn't look like we'll get that before threadlock.

[Postie]

It's hard for me to imagine a town player genuinely reasoning about everyone's alignment making such a mistake. But I also feel like scum shouldn't be so careless either,

So it's NAI but you want to pretend it's AI. Gotcha.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not pretending, but nice, take some more shots at me

[Elyse]

I thought the scum slip was acting as if Aristophanes flipped scum. But I guess he could just be really confident about that?

[Wingback]

To clarify, I was referring to Fire's Post 448 where he chooses to vote Aristophanes over Postie right after Postie does her big list of reads. His phrasing made me think he already had a vote on Postie but it seems that's not the case. My townread remains for similar reasons: he chose Aristo over Postie and at that point, there is no reason for him to bus. Similar reasoning for Elyse town but she actually switched over from Postie to Aristo. BNL never voted Aristo so I don't know where that's coming from. GL calling it a scumslip is terribad.

Aristo is 100% scum for that hammer. If you look at the context and see what his previous posts were, you'd notice he suddenly popped in two days later, gave no opinions on anything, did not catch up, just hammered and added a lame excuse that he thought it was L-1. Don't know if the partner is GL or BNL though.

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmm

okay so I guess one other question for you is you had me as "town, no question about it" in 485, why did that read change? Like I feel like your read on me soured arbitrarily very quickly as soon as Postie was hammered, and you've replaced it with a hard townread on Fire, when I don't fully buy the reason.

[GuiltyLion]

some of that may just be a disagreement in whether scum!Firebringer votes scum!Aristophanes there, though. For me I could very easily see him doing it, it wasn't exactly a hard bus, and Fire does play unconventionally sometimes

I'll think about BNL some more but I'm struggling to think that scum!BNL would so openly and brazenly attempt to wash his hands of a Postie mislynch.

[Wingback]

Explained in Post 508. Find your Post 499 to be scummy in hindsight now that we know Postie is very likely town.

[GuiltyLion]

Okay, so the problem is that, while I do agree that Postie is scummy and has still been acting scummy,

there is too much support for her lynch

, to the extent that lynching Postie seems too easy, trappish, etc.

I do think that it is plausible that Postie is scum with someone that I would like to hide for now (no, not Wingback, I know I said that earlier but that's changed), but otherwise think Postie is a mislynch.

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

tl;dr Postie is scummy but I have really bad feelings about the lynch.

I just don't know whether scum!BNL is ballsy enough to make this post, I'm leaning no

[GuiltyLion]

but your explanation was half bullshit, so...?

[GuiltyLion]

If I were scum with Postie, I would be bussing the hell out of her so if he had suspicions of me, I don't see why it should be contingent on Postie flipping town

like also here you're saying if you were scum, you would bus your partner, but then your townreads are based on this foundational assumption that scum wouldn't bus their partner Aristophanes

[Wingback]

When I caught up, Postie was the leading wagon and I put her at L-1. If she were scum, it wouldn't have cleared me in any way and if I were scum with her, pushing elsewhere is an extremely risky maneuver.

That's completely different from Fire Assasin deciding that he doesn't want the guaranteed Postie mislynch and instead deciding the kickstart a wagon on his partner Aristo.

[GuiltyLion]

That's completely different from Fire Assasin deciding that he doesn't want the guaranteed Postie mislynch and instead deciding the kickstart a wagon on his partner Aristo.

But what if FA knows that Ari will almost certainly be lynched on D2 or D3, and therefore he has to have a plausible trail of scumread throughout the game? Much like you couldn't get away with not-bussing scum!Postie hypothetically, he can't exactly defend Ari and push elsewhere either, especially if he's already been projecting a Postie townread.

I can see us both being town here but I really want to dig at this because if scum!Ari and town!Wingback then I think FA is scum.

[Wingback]

But that doesn't answer the question as to why you think a Postie scumflip would clear me. Your suspicion of me was conditional of Postie flipping town. You wrote it out before Postie returned to the thread so you couldn't have known that she was town (and you were certainly very suspicious of her). It reeks of knowing that Postie was a mislynch.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't see how 499 "reeks of knowing that she was a mislynch", I wanted to just made sure I left a pool of my scumreads before threadlock in case of either flip.

And I guess I don't agree with you that scum!Wingback absolutely had to bus scum!Postie there, FMPOV you could have just as easily jumped on the Aristophanes wagon and I probably wouldn't have raised an eyebrow at it. I thought Aris seemed much more like cornered partner than you did, because he can't vote himself so he exclusively just focused her whenever he was here. I thought Elyse and FA were both being avoidant of the wagon and I would have been inclined to examine them before you on a scum!Postie flip

[Wingback]

That's completely different from Fire Assasin deciding that he doesn't want the guaranteed Postie mislynch and instead deciding the kickstart a wagon on his partner Aristo.

But what if FA knows that Ari will almost certainly be lynched on D2 or D3, and therefore he has to have a plausible trail of scumread throughout the game? Much like you couldn't get away with not-bussing scum!Postie hypothetically, he can't exactly defend Ari and push elsewhere either, especially if he's already been projecting a Postie townread.

I can see us both being town here but I really want to dig at this because if scum!Ari and town!Wingback then I think FA is scum.

At the same time, Fire could have kept going at it with Elyse until much closer to deadline and either "compromise" at the last moment or let the Postie mislynch happen on its own. There was latent suspicion on Aristo but he wasn't getting lynched unless someone mobilized that suspicion and kickstarted the wagon which Fire did. I do see your point about Aristo being an eventually likely lynch later on in the game.

If you are town, I'd be much more inclined to look at BNL than Fire and I don't fully understand your townread there. It seems to come down to a variation of "too scummy to be scum." The way he played around Postie, hesitated, pointed out how easy it was all look like cautious scum that want the mislynch but don't want to stick their neck out. He also seems relatively inexperienced and those behaviors fall into the range I expect from people who haven't completely developed their scumgames.

[duppin]

I agree that Aristo hammer was terrible. There was a vote count on the very same page he hammered (with Wingback voting a couple of posts before him).

I mean he did say that "he will finish reading up soon", but if he hadn't caught up with the same then his vote is atrocious. Like why even vote then when you have absolutely no idea if someone else has voted on her or if something else has happened that would make you change your mind. What was the point of that vote?

[duppin]

Postie I promise I'll take reconsider GL, but I actually feel pretty good about his slot.

I'm not sure I understand your strong townread on Fire though.

[BNL]

I didn't miss anything. We're gonna be chatting postgame

This gave me bad vibes