Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[Katsuki]

V/LA til Friday, no internet in home

[lalaladucks]

prodge pidgey

[lalaladucks]

well i got prodded so not really a prodge but posting woo

[Katsuki]

wat do u thk abt pidgeottos?

[lalaladucks]

they're ok
i caught like a 180cp one at the shops yesterday and then like a 20cp one and nicknamed it plebiotto b/c 20cp are you jokin m8 ridiculous

[Dwlee99]

they're ok
i caught like a 180cp one at the shops yesterday and then like a 20cp one and nicknamed it plebiotto b/c 20cp are you jokin m8 ridiculous

I love u

[Bellaphant]

hi something smart!

rc asked for reads:
town: rc, pie
nahdia
ranger/teh brawl
dwlee, kats, pip
smart/zulfy
lala

[Dwlee99]

I should be at the very tip top

[itlepip]

Holy fuck Dwlee this isn't how you play mafia.

[pieguyn]

why aren't people voting lala?

[Dwlee99]

Holy fuck Dwlee this isn't how you play mafia.

Yea I know. I'm kinda disconnected ://

[pieguyn]

this game is really quiet.

bella/dwlee, is there any reason you two aren't voting lala yet? I think most of us agree on her being scum at this point, or at the least there's the most consensus surrounding her.

[Something_Smart]

So, catching up is not my strong suit (but whose is it, really) but I have some reads that I think are at least reasonable.
My top two scumreads are pieguyn and Zulfy, for a couple of reasons.
Just briefly, Zulfy's and UTL's posting was all-around icky and I would gladly pull quotes if I weren't on mobile.
I agree with whoever said that at least one scum was on the Ari wagon. The way pie pushed Ari does meet the standard description of a bus. And there were enough people conspicuously off the Ari wagon, even when Ari's posting got downright desperate, of which Zulfy is one.
In the earlier pages I was townreading pie, until I saw Ranger's list with pie at the bottom, and I realized that that was very possibly one of those easy, hollow townreads that scum tend to pick up.
I feel more confident about this because Ranger agrees and she is town. If Ranger were scum gambiting for time, this is definitely not how she would do it.

[Zulfy]

You will get off mobile eventually

[itlepip]

You will get off mobile eventually

shit read dude.

[pieguyn]

I agree with whoever said that at least one scum was on the Ari wagon. The way pie pushed Ari does meet the standard description of a bus. And there were enough people conspicuously off the Ari wagon, even when Ari's posting got downright desperate, of which Zulfy is one.

this is actually horrendous.

go on, in what way does me basically just death tunneling him until he got lynched when I had about a thousand opportunities to push people elsewhere and when it would have been completely unnecessary to do this as scum meet the "standard description" of a bus? what would I have even had to gain as scum from doing that? if there's one thing I most assuredly do _not_ do as scum, it's bussing my partners for literally no reason, because it's horrible scum play; bussing someone who is pretty much screwed is fine, but Aris was basically off everyone's radars entirely except for a few people going "he's kind of off because he usually does more than this when he's town" and none of them were really pushing it.

and you think scum was conspicuously staying away from the wagon, yet you then turn around and claim I apparently just bussed him for no reason?

WTF?

[pieguyn]

what I wrote in the above post is also where my issue with Ranger lies, ftr. she knows how completely stupid it is for scum to blindly bus with no deeper reason behind it, and more importantly for her specifically, she almost certainly should know of the fact that I'm averse to bussing as scum - yet she ignores that and continues to push me anyway.

she's not forming reads organically, she's decided that she wants to push me as scum and is ignoring what should be obvious evidence to the contrary, and if this game gets to like D4 or so and she isn't confirmed (or if she tries to claim some bullshit role that doesn't strictly confirm her as town and say that "the way I played this claim is so town so I'm pretty much confirmed town"), she needs to be lynched into the fucking ground.

[Dwlee99]

I think I promised to see what pinged me as town from lala at the endof day 1 but never did

[Ranger]

I'm sorry.
I'm too tired to focus properly, and I DO need to get sleep.
So this game will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

I agree with whoever said that at least one scum was on the Ari wagon. The way pie pushed Ari does meet the standard description of a bus. And there were enough people conspicuously off the Ari wagon, even when Ari's posting got downright desperate, of which Zulfy is one.

this is actually horrendous.

go on, in what way does me basically just death tunneling him until he got lynched when I had about a thousand opportunities to push people elsewhere and when it would have been completely unnecessary to do this as scum meet the "standard description" of a bus? what would I have even had to gain as scum from doing that? if there's one thing I most assuredly do _not_ do as scum, it's bussing my partners for literally no reason, because it's horrible scum play; bussing someone who is pretty much screwed is fine, but Aris was basically off everyone's radars entirely except for a few people going "he's kind of off because he usually does more than this when he's town" and none of them were really pushing it.

and you think scum was conspicuously staying away from the wagon, yet you then turn around and claim I apparently just bussed him for no reason?

WTF?

Well, basically, you pushed lala for a while, and then you were like "I don't think lala would be doing what they are as scum :/" and then you switched to Ari. Before 528, you hadn't really said much about him outside of "he hasn't done anything", then that is suddenly the reason for a major scumread. It doesn't feel like a natural read progression.

And yeah, I was tired last night and on mobile, so I didn't put all my thoughts down, but I was basically thinking that one scum was conspicuously off the Ari wagon or at least trying not to be on it (because so many people were), and the other was therefore strongly pushing it to compensate and to avoid creating connections between the two.

And I think your description of Ari's situation was pretty inaccurate. He had no content, and when he did come up with content, it was terrible. There's no reason to believe that he would have responded any better to pressure had it come later in the game, and at any rate there is no way town would let him live until LYLO. So I think he was in fact a prime target to bus.

Oh also, I was going to ask this before.

@TBG:

What is your current read on Dwlee? Do you still believe beeboy townslipped?

[pieguyn]

And I think your description of Ari's situation was pretty inaccurate. He had no content, and when he did come up with content, it was terrible. There's no reason to believe that he would have responded any better to pressure had it come later in the game, and at any rate there is no way town would let him live until LYLO. So I think he was in fact a prime target to bus.

at some point later in the game, potentially. on D1 when literally no one had figured it out with any amount of confidence or even attempted to put serious pressure him yet? absolutely not.

look at it this way... the only reason you're even talking as if it'd be a foregone conclusion that his content would be terrible is because of how I pushed him D1. without that, he may have been able to coast a few more days, or otherwise come back at some point and generate content in a way that was more comfortable for him (due to it not being basically forced out of him), or something along those lines... that is exactly part of the reason blind bussing is such shit scum play

I think you're making the same mistake that ... someone who _would_ blind bus in that position ... would make, and thinking with the power of hindsight that Aris was basically unsalvageable and would need to die sooner or later. and you're not thinking about the more important question, which is "what do I have to gain at this point in the game from doing that as scum", which in that case is pretty much nothing.

there are other factors at play, too, i.e. the fact that this is a quiet game that's very lacking in direction, meaning if I as scum were to do something ridiculous, I'd have to explain why me who's supposedly so obvtown and one of the only real "leaders" per se is still alive all the way on D5... no matter how town I thought I could look, that isn't a position I'd want to be in as scum, ever (like yeah, I'm arguing against it right now, but think about it: as scum I have to do it today, and tomorrow, and every day after, and it gets harder and harder to do the longer I'm alive and the more improbable it would be for me to actually be left alive that long). or the fact that it was D1 and that he would have been a prime target for investigative roles overnight due to how much of a lurker he was... if you think this isn't the case then you need to fix your theory game.

And yeah, I was tired last night and on mobile, so I didn't put all my thoughts down, but I was basically thinking that one scum was conspicuously off the Ari wagon or at least trying not to be on it (because so many people were), and the other was therefore strongly pushing it to compensate and to avoid creating connections between the two.

you're making a mistake in thinking about things this way - in practice, a lot of scum don't really give a shit about forcing the votes to be a certain way, explicitly because doing this requires forcing votes and not pushing people "naturally" (me included when I do draw scum; actually, when I'm scum I usually explicitly prefer to vote with my partner/s when I can because a lot of people think scum won't vote together, but that's beside the point). it's OK for when someone makes a vote that looks really forced and you're trying to figure out for what reason they would have gone out of their way to force a vote, but if you're using it as a driving point behind your view of the day, not so much.

Well, basically, you pushed lala for a while, and then you were like "I don't think lala would be doing what they are as scum :/" and then you switched to Ari. Before 528, you hadn't really said much about him outside of "he hasn't done anything", then that is suddenly the reason for a major scumread. It doesn't feel like a natural read progression.

there is some context here you should probably be aware of: I've seen Aris' scum game before and he generally lurked a lot and was really hedgy/careful about his opinions, and while I had (and still have) no completed games with town-Aris, I've heard he is a player who prefers playing town over scum. thus, at the point where I made 432, that was sufficient to make me think he had a fairly good chance of being scum. also, this is another instance of you just assuming I had to push him at that point with the power of hindsight instead of considering what I would actually gain from doing it ... for what reason would me-scum have drawn that much attention to how he was playing at that point in the game?

[Something_Smart]

And I think your description of Ari's situation was pretty inaccurate. He had no content, and when he did come up with content, it was terrible. There's no reason to believe that he would have responded any better to pressure had it come later in the game, and at any rate there is no way town would let him live until LYLO. So I think he was in fact a prime target to bus.

at some point later in the game, potentially. on D1 when literally no one had figured it out with any amount of confidence or even attempted to put serious pressure him yet? absolutely not.

look at it this way... the only reason you're even talking as if it'd be a foregone conclusion that his content would be terrible is because of how I pushed him D1. without that, he may have been able to coast a few more days, or otherwise come back at some point and generate content in a way that was more comfortable for him (due to it not being basically forced out of him), or something along those lines... that is exactly part of the reason blind bussing is such shit scum play

Or he may not have. Bussing is a gambit; it's a bet that the towncred you earn will be enough to offset the loss of a partner. There is no empirically right answer. Maybe he asked you to bus him because he knew his content would continue to suck? I don't know.

I think you're making the same mistake that ... someone who _would_ blind bus in that position ... would make, and thinking with the power of hindsight that Aris was basically unsalvageable and would need to die sooner or later. and you're not thinking about the more important question, which is "what do I have to gain at this point in the game from doing that as scum", which in that case is pretty much nothing.

Noting this (will address it below).

there are other factors at play, too, i.e. the fact that this is a quiet game that's very lacking in direction, meaning if I as scum were to do something ridiculous, I'd have to explain why me who's supposedly so obvtown and one of the only real "leaders" per se is still alive all the way on D5... no matter how town I thought I could look, that isn't a position I'd want to be in as scum, ever (like yeah, I'm arguing against it right now, but think about it: as scum I have to do it today, and tomorrow, and every day after, and it gets harder and harder to do the longer I'm alive and the more improbable it would be for me to actually be left alive that long). or the fact that it was D1 and that he would have been a prime target for investigative roles overnight due to how much of a lurker he was... if you think this isn't the case then you need to fix your theory game.

In my experience, those accusations are easy to deflect. I don't think I've ever seen "why are you still alive" be used effectively. And even if it were to apply, why would that be different if you didn't bus? If you're scum aiming for as much towncred as possible, that problem could theoretically arise whether you bussed or not.

And yeah, I was tired last night and on mobile, so I didn't put all my thoughts down, but I was basically thinking that one scum was conspicuously off the Ari wagon or at least trying not to be on it (because so many people were), and the other was therefore strongly pushing it to compensate and to avoid creating connections between the two.

you're making a mistake in thinking about things this way - in practice, a lot of scum don't really give a shit about forcing the votes to be a certain way, explicitly because doing this requires forcing votes and not pushing people "naturally" (me included when I do draw scum; actually, when I'm scum I usually explicitly prefer to vote with my partner/s when I can because a lot of people think scum won't vote together, but that's beside the point). it's OK for when someone makes a vote that looks really forced and you're trying to figure out for what reason they would have gone out of their way to force a vote, but if you're using it as a driving point behind your view of the day, not so much.

Yeah, that's fair enough, but it was less about appearances and more about "if one scum was avoiding the wagon and pushing elsewhere, why did it still go through?"

Well, basically, you pushed lala for a while, and then you were like "I don't think lala would be doing what they are as scum :/" and then you switched to Ari. Before 528, you hadn't really said much about him outside of "he hasn't done anything", then that is suddenly the reason for a major scumread. It doesn't feel like a natural read progression.

there is some context here you should probably be aware of: I've seen Aris' scum game before and he generally lurked a lot and was really hedgy/careful about his opinions, and while I had (and still have) no completed games with town-Aris, I've heard he is a player who prefers playing town over scum. thus, at the point where I made 432, that was sufficient to make me think he had a fairly good chance of being scum. also, this is another instance of you just assuming I had to push him at that point with the power of hindsight instead of considering what I would actually gain from doing it ... for what reason would me-scum have drawn that much attention to how he was playing at that point in the game?

I will definitely concede the first point. I have played only with town-Ari, though I have noticed that he tends to get lynched D1 a lot as scum, so I assumed his scum game was fairly noticeable. (From what I saw in this game, it seems to be.) However, that doesn't explain the sudden switch of noticing Ari's lack of posting and deciding immediately that he must be scum for it, just at the same time as you decide lala is probably town for a small point after making a big case on them.

Overall, I don't like the way you're pushing this. Essentially, you're pushing two contradictory statements:
1. You are essentially confirmed town for your push on Ari.
2. Scum has ABSOLUTELY no reason to do what you did.
You're turning possibilities into absolutes in a way that just doesn't make sense. If you were actually confirmed town for the push, then of course scum would have every motivation to do it, and then your whole argument falls apart.

And although I may have made it look like it last night, the Ari push is not the reason I am scumreading you. The main reasons are more nebulous and I only touched on them last night because it's kind of gut. (Although I will elaborate further, to be sure.)

Anyway, what I meant by saying "standard description of a bus" was the way you made the push. Not the fact that you made it or the timing of it, but once you started pushing Ari, it seemed like it could have been a bus. Your last point quoted above deflected my comment about the suddenness of your read progression, both about Ari and about lala. Even if you can say that your push on Ari makes you overall less likely to be his partner, it in no way makes it impossible as you are suggesting.

[pieguyn]

Anyway, what I meant by saying "standard description of a bus" was the way you made the push. Not the fact that you made it or the timing of it, but once you started pushing Ari, it seemed like it could have been a bus. Your last point quoted above deflected my comment about the suddenness of your read progression, both about Ari and about lala. Even if you can say that your push on Ari makes you overall less likely to be his partner, it in no way makes it impossible as you are suggesting.

no, it absolutely did not.

I have scum reads on lala and Aris. lala then does something that looks kinda town, or at the very least is responding to me in a way that kinda looks like she's trying to work with me, and I have a bunch of people fighting me in a way where at the least it's obvious that lala would be a much harder lynch than Aris.

what do you expect me to do afterward?

Overall, I don't like the way you're pushing this. Essentially, you're pushing two contradictory statements:
1. You are essentially confirmed town for your push on Ari.
2. Scum has ABSOLUTELY no reason to do what you did.
You're turning possibilities into absolutes in a way that just doesn't make sense. If you were actually confirmed town for the push, then of course scum would have every motivation to do it, and then your whole argument falls apart.

this is really shit-awful reasoning. did you actually read anything I wrote in my first point? the entire point is that, while yeah in theory it could be strictly possible, it's a completely needless risk, that wouldn't have been remotely necessary, _especially_ not right then at that point in the game. I'm not complete shit at the game, I'm more than capable of looking town without having to resort to bussing, especially in a gamestate like this where no one outside of me is even attempting to lead shit.

it could be that I'm some master scum player who chose to defy basically all common sense and do it anyway, in some universe, but the simpler explanation for all of this is that I'm just town.

[pieguyn]

However, that doesn't explain the sudden switch of noticing Ari's lack of posting and deciding immediately that he must be scum for it, just at the same time as you decide lala is probably town for a small point after making a big case on them.

did you even read what I wrote?

I scum read Aris entirely independently of my scum read on lala. and not noticing it "immediately" is... kinda sorta the point of playing a light-content scum game... the entire goal of lurking as scum is to not get noticed by people for as long as possible. you won't really get anywhere trying to sort someone like that unless at some point you make a judgement call that the person isn't developing adequate content

[pieguyn]

Or he may not have. Bussing is a gambit; it's a bet that the towncred you earn will be enough to offset the loss of a partner. There is no empirically right answer. Maybe he asked you to bus him because he knew his content would continue to suck? I don't know.

what are you even on about here?

Aris' content for the majority of D1 could be considered passable enough, if you don't hunt motivation/read in between the lines enough and if you aren't familiar with his meta. it wasn't until he came back in AFTER I pushed him the entire fucking game day and started posting again that his content was horrible.