He is talking about dixc. transcend and dixc both claimed n2 cop. dixc flipped as cop.In post 1622, Persivul wrote: How has he CC'd flipped town? What am I missing? If he has indeed done so, we'll just lynch him now.
I'm not good at statistics, so I'm not going to try an calculate the probability out...don't necessarily agree that it's a pretty high chance. Also, this is the way that YOU would play it. Not everyone would, so don't try and make it seem like an absolute.In post 1619, karnos wrote:What does picking the same person have anything to do with it?In post 1616, PenguinPower wrote: Alternative theory...Ranger is scum and there was an intentional no-kill on N1. That allowed Ranger to claim Doctor on someone they knew as town and get instant credibility. Even if there was an N1 Doctor, there was only an 8% chance they would choose the same person.
Look it's N1 you as a doctor save ANYONE.
Day 2, ranger announces she saved person X and that is why there was no kill.
As a town doctor, from your POV, there are two possibilities here: ranger is truthful, but she thinks she saved person X when the scum could have been trying kill person Y. you would claim doc and announce who you saved, and ultimately neither X or Y would be 100% confirmed, because town doesn't know which one was the kill target.
Alternatively, ranger could be scum. In this case, you would still want to counter claim, scum@!ranger could be pulling the gambit because of your save (thus your target is confirmed town) or, extremely unlikely IMO, scum may have holstered to play a gambit.
So it's not 8% chance of a doctor picking the same person, it's whatever chance that ANY night 1 doctor exists at all. I haven't done the math, but I think it's a pretty high chance (but obviously not 100%). Enough that a scum wouldn't count on there not being one, but not so much that lack of multiple N1 doc claims is a red flag.
Ranger gets a pass today. No killing and claiming doc is an unlikely opening gambit. As I noted before, I do see it as a possibility with Ranger, but today we should be keeping it simple and voting out of those who haven't been involved in claims at all.In post 1621, Transcend wrote:i just really want one of chip anen or ranger dead today.
You actually aren't *that* suspicious, but the issue is that I have to trust you to also trust penguin. Lynching you would kill two birds with one stone, in that either you flip scum, or you flip town and penguin is confirmed.In post 1624, Transcend wrote:And just why might you be suspicious of me? Do tell.
In this setup, the power roles only get one shot. Once you use your power, there is no real incentive to hide. If a n1doc is killed on n2, it's actually good for town because it means a power role on a later night might survive to use his power.In post 1626, PenguinPower wrote:
I'm not good at statistics, so I'm not going to try an calculate the probability out...don't necessarily agree that it's a pretty high chance. Also, this is the way that YOU would play it. Not everyone would, so don't try and make it seem like an absolute.
So you don't even fos me lolIn post 1628, karnos wrote:You actually aren't *that* suspicious, but the issue is that I have to trust you to also trust penguin. Lynching you would kill two birds with one stone, in that either you flip scum, or you flip town and penguin is confirmed.In post 1624, Transcend wrote:And just why might you be suspicious of me? Do tell.
I don't feel the same about the other confirmed town, because your claim is easier to fake than rangers, for example (which required a no kill & no counterclaim).
What is wrong with you lot? Yet again, read 1568. That's a claim of N2 Doc saving MC.In post 1602, karnos wrote: The unconfirmed are sircakez, chip butty, persivul, and anemeneni
Are you forgetting there can be more than one instance of any role-night? E.g. could be two or more N1 Docs. CCs don't count here, except for counting purposes.In post 1628, karnos wrote: I don't feel the same about the other confirmed town, because your claim is easier to fake than rangers, for example (which required a no kill & no counterclaim).
There was a kill n2, your claim doesn't really hold much water.In post 1633, Chip Butty wrote: What is wrong with you lot? Yet again, read 1568. That's a claim of N2 Doc saving MC.
Missed that. So you're saying you protected MC when we had cop claims on the table...In post 1633, Chip Butty wrote:What is wrong with you lot? Yet again, read 1568. That's a claim of N2 Doc saving MC.In post 1602, karnos wrote: The unconfirmed are sircakez, chip butty, persivul, and anemeneni
Yes, it can hurt town if we have cops left. BUT, I tend to think that massclaim might be good at this point. Order should be anen, me/cakez, MC.In post 1636, karnos wrote:Is there ANY way this could hurt town? Don't start claiming unless the majority think it's a good idea, but a this point I think it makes sense.
LOL, yeah, not a great decision when you put it that way, but I wouldn't have put more than five seconds' thought into it at the time. Basically just followed Ranger's lead from N1. I can say though that I don't put much store in claims in this setup and maybe that's why I didn't recall their being cop claims on the table. My thought was just to protect the most confirmed Town we had. But, given Dix's flip, I guess you are right and I should have saved Dix.In post 1638, Persivul wrote:Missed that. So you're saying you protected MC when we had cop claims on the table...In post 1633, Chip Butty wrote:What is wrong with you lot? Yet again, read 1568. That's a claim of N2 Doc saving MC.In post 1602, karnos wrote: The unconfirmed are sircakez, chip butty, persivul, and anemeneni
The overall posting rate in that game was very high, whereas here it was very slow. If you've read through, you will have seen numerous comments from various players to that effect. Also, in Open 644, there were a few prolific posters that i was engaged with (ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt), and who I found kind of annoying, which boosted my post rate there. I have been more than happy to cruise in this game a bit since I am (was) playing in an unprecedented (for me) four games and it is clearly too much. I'm spending way more time on this site than I really want to, actually.In post 1640, Persivul wrote:Chip's post count is way down from his town game.
In the just completed Open 644, chip made 348 posts in the first 2 game days. In this game, he made 87 in the first two game days.
Looking at it from a RL perspective: those 87 posts were made from 6.18 - 7.14 (my time). In that same period in Open 644, he made 206 posts.
I'm comfortable with my vote.In post 1641, Chip Butty wrote:LOL, yeah, not a great decision when you put it that way, but I wouldn't have put more than five seconds' thought into it at the time. Basically just followed Ranger's lead from N1. I can say though that I don't put much store in claims in this setup and maybe that's why I didn't recall their being cop claims on the table. My thought was just to protect the most confirmed Town we had. But, given Dix's flip, I guess you are right and I should have saved Dix.
Hopefully some people will join me and we can help you out with that.In post 1643, Chip Butty wrote:I'm spending way more time on this site than I really want to, actually.
If we trust transcend's claim, we know for a fact that 3/5 of those are town. They could just all be town, or maybe there is one bused scum in the list, but this just reeks of scum trying to push a list that will win them the game, knowing that town can't handle that many miss-lynches.In post 1309, SirCakez wrote:We just win if we cop/lynch all of Dix/Penguin/Transcend/Aneninen/Persivul
How many of his posts are particularly townie? The charge apart from activity is fence-sitting, and no, fence-sitting posts don't look particularly scummy. That's why it's effective.In post 1647, karnos wrote:Chip- Being in the unconfirmed pile, I would consider voting Chip, but I just don't see the strong case on him. I don't see any of Chip's posts as particularly scummy,