Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[Wingback]

He has no answer at all. Literally the only thing he came up with was "why are you defending yourself and pushing me?" in a closed setup.

[The Show Must Go On]

Votecount 2.28:

Wingback (2): Elyse, GuiltyLion
BulletNLynchproof (2): Wingback, duppin
GuiltyLion (0):
Elyse (0):
duppin (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):

Not Voting (2): BulletNLynchproof, TellTaleHeart

With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-27 15:00:00).

Song:

I want it all!

Notes:

Here's to the future.

[BNL]

So not only are you refusing to answer my question but you also dare to call me shifting focus?

VOTE: Wingback

[BNL]

Aristo's subtle defense of him in Post 228 after Postie voted him. Aristo agrees with Postie's read, then posts vague stuff trying to get her to change her read while also calling him scummy and taking care to not directly defend him. He's genuinely is trying to convince Postie here and not just taking a stand.

OK I just clicked on this link... are you even reading? How is that a defence of me? And are you trying to scumread me or Aristophanes?

[BNL]

As for why I didn't counterwagon Ari to Postie: I wasn't that confident in Ari being scum (at least pre-hammer) or Postie being town.

[BNL]

Eggs on the Postie wagon in Post 400 while immediately casting doubt in Post 401. Does both in Post 405.

You also have to tell me how this is scummy (or even casting doubt in general)

[serrapaladin]

So I agree with duppin being town, and I believe TTH's crumb.

IPS was quite soft-defendy towards aristo, and didn't really mention him otherwise.

I'm still confused about how overpowered town seems to be.

I've mostly seen this from scum.

Do we think the remaining scum is a neighbour?

[Wingback]

So I agree with duppin being town, and I believe TTH's crumb.

IPS was quite soft-defendy towards aristo, and didn't really mention him otherwise.

I'm still confused about how overpowered town seems to be.

I've mostly seen this from scum.

Do we think the remaining scum is a neighbour?

IPS's Post 28 is pretty blatant for scum to scum interactions. I'm obviously biased but I've found it rare for scum, especially newbie scum to go out on a limb for their partner. There is often a tendency to want to be "right" about their partners. Aristo's Post 30 is him throwing shade on my slot without backing it up and I'm again biased but scum wouldn't be so hesitant to push a partner as they while pushing a townie because they are afraid of a townie pushing them back and stepping on toes. I wouldn't say IPS-Aristo conclusively clears me but just compare with Aristo-BNL and BNL's play around the D1 lynch where he repeatedly tries to set up players based on Postie's townflip and never votes Aristo who was a potential alternate wagon.

On town power: here's what we have: a neighbor, a neapolitan, a doc that only protects town, and an ascetic vig in a Micro. That's a whole lot of town power. The setup influences our reads and I do think that unless there is something that we haven't foreseen, town is fairly OP.

I actually think the setup is less OP if the remaining scum is a neighbor considering that's one additional player that can't be confirmed by the neapolitan. That's partly why I'm concerned that there is something I'm missing. But with Duppin and BNL, side-by-side, I find it hard to see Duppin as scum. He voted Aristo early, switched to Postie when Postie started defending Aristo. This was a similar thought process to what I, GL, and TTH had. With BNL, he distanced from Aristo for a while but kept his focus on the Postie wagon and who pushed it. I'll point out specific posts in a bit.

[Wingback]

Here's a sample of BNL's posting D1:

I explained my Postie townread in 193.
Tell me why you said 152 is doubting my Elyse read? I just said that wasn't sure of her posting.

I don't know how I missed that post. The subsequent ones explain away most of my I'll feelings too. And the tone of them is towny. I'm sorry I missed them!
UNVOTE:

239 pings me so hard. The overjustified, apologetic unvote of Bullet, the slight shade at Postie, the ridiculous defense of Bullet at the end when you were voting him like two posts earlier.

That was such an awkward and complete backoff of Bullet for "towny toned posts that you missed". Like are you even reading the game? You've "missed" a crazy amount of posts.

I wouldn't be surprised with a Bullet/Aris scumteam.

I actually have to agree with Elyse that Ari "missing" that many posts is suspicious. And his followed townread on my next posts seem really lazy. Though I don't really understand the scum motivation behind leaving my wagon at L-2.

Context: Aristo's has three votes and garnered suspicion from another player Elyse (your slot). He doesn't defend Aristo. He agrees with Elyse's suspicion of him but townreads him for another really weak reason (Aristo moving off from the BNL wagon). I actually found that scummy and this reads like a very self-conscious mention of his partner's scummy play. BNL here was referring to Aristo's Post 239.

I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post. You agree that this does not seem like his townplay, so where exactly are you going with this?

I agree but I see little reason to suppose this is scum!Aristo as opposed to just different!Aristo.

I still don't get the point. It sounds like you're trying to discourage me from voting on Aristo for no apparent reason. I honestly don't think your post makes much sense, so I ask you gain, what was the point of it?

I am also agreeing with duppin here that Postie seems to be discouraging the Ari wagon subtly... but the Postie/Ari conversation at the top of page 10 definitely doesn't look like scum/scum interactions.

Postie, can you explain what "different Aristo" means?

This half-tying Postie and Aristo together but also leaving room to push Aristo when Postie flips town.

UNVOTE:

I am becoming less sure on Elyse, I feel that my read on her is stale, also, I have more scumreads now.

Keeping an eye on Aristo. Also I'm becoming less sure on Postie, she was my strongest townread but it was only over a few points; many of her recent posts are worrying me.

VOTE: Wingback

I'm not scumreading him or IPS, but I want him to post stuff ASAP. Also I don't really have a better place for my vote now.

"Keeping an eye on Aristo" but in the very next post, he "doesn't have a better place to vote." Aristo at that point had three votes on him so this reads like a hesitance to put him at L-1. He couldn't directly jump to Postie since he had previously expressed a townread on her so this "I don't have a better place to put my vote."

[serrapaladin]

So I think the other town neighbour should claim today, if there is one.

I do kind of like the effort you're putting in.

[serrapaladin]

Claiming now: I am Fire Assassin's neighbour.

Summarizing stuff in the neighbourhood now.

Missed this, sorry.

[serrapaladin]

So this is tough. I think the setup works better with both neighbours town.

I'm a bit worried that neither wingback nor BNL are trying to throw suspicion on duppin.

[Wingback]

Votecount 1.13:

Aristophanes (4): GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart, duppin, Elyse,
Elyse (1): Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
Wingback (1): BulletNLynchproof
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Postie (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): Aristophanes

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

I suggest reading the entirety of page 13 to get a sense of context. At the votecount at the top, Aristo has L-1, Postie has no votes. Duppin switches from Aristo to Postie and Elyse seems like she might want to switch as well. Then in Post 306, he starts scumreading Postie who he was previously townreading. He re-iterates Duppin's points over the next few posts (Post 307 to post 311 ultimately voting Postie in 311. The reasoning isn't bad because he's borrowing Duppin's and other player's reasons but the timing is opportunistic.

After the wagon switches to Postie:

Votecount 1.16:

Postie (4): duppin, BulletNLynchproof, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
Aristophanes (1): Elyse
Elyse (1): Fire Assassin
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
BulletNLynchproof (1): Postie
Wingback (0):
GuiltyLion (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): Aristophanes

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch

This is where he unvotes and starts the "mislynch analysis" on the Postie wagon while taking care to still keeping pushing her.

Posts like this:

So one thing that is bothering me is that Postie is basically OMGUSing everyone on her wagon. Like, her first post after someone else's vote on her is a scumread on that person.

Egging on the wagon to justify putting his vote back if needed, but at the same time, posts like this:

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

where he starts "worrying" about the wagon and how everyone has agreed on it. Doesn't name names just yet. Doesn't suggest that the wagon move to his other scumread Aristo where there was plenty of support.

Hey guys, wanna wagon BNL? You both have him as null/scum, right?

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Idk why, but this post reminds me of this. They feel similar.

I am wary of wagoning Postie, however.

This is the weakest garbage suspicion I've seen. He links to another game where a scum player votes him (implying that Postie is scum) but immediately talks about how he's wary of wagoning Postie.

Actually you know when I went back and re-ISO'd Aristophanes from College Mafia (where he was scum) vs games I've seen him as town (Word Sneak 2, ⅋, Town of Helen), I wasn't sold on his ISO in this game being as scummy as I had thought previously.

I might prefer a Postie lynch, it feels like all this argument defending her opinion about his wagon being a mislynch is coming from a place of her holding onto a need for projected consistency rather than genuine reasoning. Post 356 is particularly bad, because it requires an implicit assumption (that TTH already pointed out) of TTH thinking Aristo can only be scum with Wingback. I don't think town!Postie would automatically make that assumption, it reads to me as if she's forcing it.

VOTE: Postie
I also didn't like her accusing BNL of opportunism.

I don't like this post and vote, not only is it opportunistic, but I find it overexplained. The first part is bad, looking for a reason to leave Aristo, possibly for him to look more townie. But the reason is lazy.

I am also wary of GL's buddying of me.

If Postie is town GL is someone I definitely want to have a look at.

The setting up starts here. All this while BNL was subtly encouraging the Postie wagon choosing it over Aristo's while at the same time deciding who to push next if Postie flips town. If he was so cautious about Postie and thought she was town, why not push Aristo - the other viable wagon at this point?

Crap reasoning for townreading me in Post 456. I called him out on it in Post 482. Never responds. Just read this post.

Okay, so the problem is that, while I do agree that Postie is scummy and has still been acting scummy,

there is too much support for her lynch

, to the extent that lynching Postie seems too easy, trappish, etc.

I do think that it is plausible that Postie is scum with someone that I would like to hide for now (no, not Wingback, I know I said that earlier but that's changed), but otherwise think Postie is a mislynch.

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

tl;dr Postie is scummy but I have really bad feelings about the lynch.

This post is such a goldmine. He wants Postie lynched but talks about how easy it is and then undercuts his reasoning with "Postie could be being bussed" which is sort of an obvious conclusion that doesn't need saying. It reads like scum wanting the lynch to go through and to set up the townies that pushed it without taking a solid stance for it (or a solid stance against it, because if he defended Postie hard, Aristo was the next viable option).

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

I don't think Wingback is Postie's partner; if Wingback is scum it makes more sense for Postie to be a mislynch IMO.

I almost wanted to rule out GL off the top of my head, but seeing their double ISO there might have been some forced interactions. I'm still leaning that they aren't scumbuddies though.

Unfortunately I didn't have time today to research thoroughly. I'll continue tomorrow.

Setting up a mislynch on me and GL. Both of us aren't scumbuddies with Postie but we could be scum if Postie is a mislynch.

Votecount 1.23:

Postie (5): duppin, GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart, Wingback, Aristophanes
Aristophanes (2): Elyse, Fire Assassin
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
Fire Assassin (0):
Elyse (0):
BulletNLynchproof (0):
Wingback (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):
duppin (0):

Not Voting (1): BulletNLynchproof

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch.

Notes:

Hammer!

Here's the end of day vote count. Aristo quickhammered but the deadline was approaching anyways. BNL was consistently hand-wringing over the Postie lynch and busy setting up the next lynches but never once pushes the Postie counterwagon on Aristo. He's just sitting there not voting anyone.

[Wingback]

So this is tough. I think the setup works better with both neighbours town.

I'm a bit worried that neither wingback nor BNL are trying to throw suspicion on duppin.

It does. I feel I got the short end of the stick here because having an extra unconfirmable townie indeed makes more sense. I don't have an answer for that except that the mod didn't seem to have balanced it perfectly and I know I'm town.

I did re-read Duppin for that reason and I haven't found anything unreasonable in his posting. He pushed Aristo early and later switched to Postie but his reasoning and the way he was treating Aristo/Postie felt more like he was uninformed. For example, worrying that Postie was defending a town-Aristo for the towncred and it seemed like that when I was playing in real time because I could not understand Postie's Aristo defense either. That's also why I wanted fresh eyes on the game to see if you saw anything about Duppin that we all missed.

[serrapaladin]

Fire Assassin as the NK also sort of makes more sense with BNL scum.

I don't see myself voting for duppin. There's a slight chance TTH is scum neapolitan, which would sort of make setup sense, but she would have had a much easier path to victory than clearing me, so I don't really see it.

How come you have such a preference for being vigged over lynched?

[Wingback]

Not a preference. I think BNL is scum and the game will end upon his lynch. If we somehow end up losing, I don't want to feel as though I didn't do everything in my power to lynch him and avoid my own mislynch. More of a personal philosophy I suppose. I hate it when people just lie down and let themselves get lynched. Makes the game ten times easier for scum when that happens.

[duppin]

The reason I want to lynch BNL first is because of the whole bulletproof thing. I really didn't like it and can't help but feel he has a plan (as in he won't die to vigi). It's still going to be very difficult for him to actual win the game if he is scum, but it is the best shot he has so he has to push the whole "I'd rather get vigged" idea.

[duppin]

Ultimately the order probably doesn't matter though.

[serrapaladin]

Lynching BNL and vig/lynching Wingback should he flip town is where I'm at.

TTH and GL, any comments?

[GuiltyLion]

I'm fine with that though I still think Wingback is the scum

[serrapaladin]

Hmm, if that's true he's trying pretty hard here for little to no upside. But I guess we'll see.

So you're also happy with duppin-town and TTH-town?

[GuiltyLion]

For now, yeah. If one of them is scum then my heart goes out to whichever of us has to figure that out in LYLO

I agree Wingback's effort is unusual, but I'm thinking it's probably like a point of pride for him. "At least I got one more mislynch" or something like that. He said himself that he hates when people roll over and accept their lynch, and I could see that being genuine and applying to either alignment.

[serrapaladin]

Legit.

Wanna discuss what we would do in that lylo? Or shall we leave it to avoid WIFOMing the NK?

[Wingback]

I'm pretty happy calling Duppin and TTH town.

Also, "at least I got one more mislynch" is silly. There is no real difference in outcome. But there is a difference between letting yourself get mislynched and not. (Also, I hate complacency and as far as I'm concerned, this is a closed setup and I'm not assuming we already won the game). If I'm wrong, good but I prefer to be safe than sorry.

If you actually read my case(s) on BNL, you'd see that. He doesn't respond to my points and instead goes off on "you are being defensive" because he pegged that as part of my personality that he could push on. His interaction with Aristo is classic scum to scum especially towards the end.

If I'm wrong here and get vigged, assuming a TTH/Duppin/Serra LYLO, go for Duppin. It's not just TTH's claim. When I re-read her posts about Aristo, I understood her arguments perfectly, and also thought where and how she went after Postie was reasonable. I'm not that certain about Duppin. He did switch from Aristo to Postie at a fairly crucial time but his reasoning that Postie was trying to gather towncred from Aristo was also very reasonable. I think if he were scum with Aristo, he would have gone with saying that Postie and Aristo were partnered which would give him an easy Postie push. So yeah, it's hard to see either of them as scum actually. If TTH is scum, she took a TTH/Elyse/Duppin 3-way and cleared her mislynch target when there was no guarantee that she would win against Duppin. I'd go for Duppin but only marginally. More likely it's just BNL.

[GuiltyLion]

hmm Wingback you look a lot more town when you're not being bellig