Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[GuiltyLion]

And I did think your back and forth with me in Twilight about FA and Elyse was townie

UNVOTE:

[serrapaladin]

Cool - and you're definitely not bulletproof, right Wingback?

[Wingback]

Nope. Not bulletproof.

[Wingback]

Actually the more I think about it, the more I could see TTH over Duppin. Assuming TTH is a scum neapolitan who checked Elyse coming into D2, the lynches were set up such that we'd be looking at a TTH/Elyse/Duppin lylo. There's no guarantee that she would have escaped the noose or convinced Duppin that Elyse was scum. Why

wouldn't

she make a bold move and clear her N1 target and let Elyse decide the fate of the game? It's a near guarantee that her move would cause Elyse (and others) to townread her. Food for thought.

Sort of playing devil's advocate here. If you do wind up in lylo, I think weighing that in would be cool. We've all convinced ourselves that TTH wouldn't make that move but she's reasonably experienced at the game to anticipate that this would be our reaction.

[serrapaladin]

Okay yeah, let's talk about this now then, I guess.

So I'm not convinced scum-TTH would have crumbed neapolitan. On the other hand, balance of that version actually feels a bit better, with neap acting as a weakened role cop, while 2 neighbours + vig + doc is not bad.

[serrapaladin]

Actually though, role cop + ascetic vig is just a weird interaction. I do think the vig is only ascetic so he can't be healed. Mafia having a BP, healer than can self-target, or maybe just a neighbour makes more sense.

[The Show Must Go On]

Votecount 2.29:

Wingback (2): Elyse, BulletNLynchproof
BulletNLynchproof (2): Wingback, duppin
GuiltyLion (0):
Elyse (0):
duppin (0):
TellTaleHeart (0):

Not Voting (2): TellTaleHeart, GuiltyLion

With 6 alive it's 4 to lynch.

Day ends in (expired on 2016-07-27 15:00:00).

Song:

Bohemian Rhapsody

Notes:

Caught in a landslide no escape from reality~

[BNL]

Best explanation for Fire being nightkilled was he caught onto BNL in the neighborhood PT.

Now that I remember, this is one of the reasons why I was scumreading Wingback. This feels made-up, I I doubt he actually believes in that, he just throws out a random explanation when there's a lot more to say about me.

[BNL]

Never mind I misread that, I thought he said "Best explanation for BNL being scum"

[BNL]

Actually looking at the current gamestate, I don't think anyone will ever be scumreading duppin or TTH, so it doesn't matter whether lynch me -> shoot Wingback or lynch Wingback -> shoot me.

[BNL]

VOTE: BulletproofNLynchproof

I'd rather not get mislynched just for the heck of it. Vote him and it's a win. Vig me if he's somehow town (hint: he's not). Pretty sure about this.

Now that I think about it, his end of D1 pussyfooting around the Postie lynch was incredibly scummy. I forgot about that entirely getting distracted with GL first, then Elyse.

Here, Wingback, this is where you said you'd prefer getting vigged to getting lynched. If this feeling has already gone away, can you explain why you had that feeling at that time?

[serrapaladin]

Would still like TTH to check in.

@mod: how do you resolve vig vs. goon endgame

[The Show Must Go On]

That question is insufficiently clear.

[serrapaladin]

@mod: if, when the game goes to night, the only players alive are a town vig and a mafia goon, and they target each other with kills, what happens?

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm still alive (barely).

I'm doing

one

thing, I promise I won't hold you up!

[serrapaladin]

So you still have something to check/say?

I'm happy to wait?

[The Show Must Go On]

Both would die and as neither faction would meet their win condition the game would end in a draw.

[TellTaleHeart]

Alright-y, I was going over Wingback and BnL's posting when it occurred to me "Why am I doing this? All I need to do is be 100% sure in my duppin read and it's autowin."

So I went back over

duppin's

posting to double check myself on that read and I am confident he is town.

The important thing that makes me think so is the Aristophanes vote on Day 1 (Post 237). I know the Wiki lore is that the "middle of the wagon is prime bussing real estate," but I think that's not applicable in this case. At the time, there were two other burgeoning wagons:

Votecount 1.10:

Elyse (2): Fire Assassin, BulletNLynchproof
Aristophanes (2): GuiltyLion, TellTaleHeart
BulletNLynchproof (2): Elyse, Aristophanes
Fire Assassin (1): Wingback
Postie (1): duppin
GuiltyLion (1): Postie
TellTaleHeart (0):
Wingback (0):
duppin (0):

A bus is generally suboptimal for scum on Day 1 unless the slot's doomed anyway. Taking a pair of defibrillator paddles to the Aristophanes wagon is not an optimal move for scum!duppin in this situation.

Then there's the

way

duppin voted Ari. Here's the post:

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

How do you figure?

Honestly it's a mostly a character read. I'm not getting any townvibes from you, which I usually do when your town. I will admit it is possible some of it has to do with you going V/LA so yeah.

In any case, why isn't your vote on Postie?

VOTE: Aristophanes

This doesn't feel like your town play.

Does it feel like his scumplay? Because I agree but I see little reason to suppose this is scum!Aristo as opposed to just different!Aristo.

Perhaps, not sure. However this does not feel like his town game so I see no reason not to apply pressure.
I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post. You agree that this does not seem like his townplay, so where exactly are you going with this?

The push isn't overdone. There's not a

ton

of reasons heaped on even though Aristophanes does have a number of posts up to this point. It's also not lazily tossed on just for the sake of participating in the wagon. In short, it doesn't fit the profile of a bus vote.

There's also the matter of the Fire Assassin kill. Given the couple of shots duppin took at him in his Day 1 activity (Post 144, Post 172, and Post 548) and Fire Assassin's stated intentions to not go after duppin the next day (Post 505), I don't think a Fire Assassin kill makes much sense from a scum!duppin POV.

tl;dr: duppin is town. Let's get on with it.

VOTE: Wingback

[GuiltyLion]

fuck I finally actually read/thought about Wingback's case in 649 and I kinda like it tbh

VOTE: BNL

serra I'll switch over if you change your mind

[GuiltyLion]

also I did originally townread IPS so I'm gonna fallback to that read

[serrapaladin]

VOTE: BNL

[Wingback]

I think that's a hammer. If we're wrong here, I'd go for TTH over Duppin. That last post where she clears Duppin seems like she's stretching, I don't like her complete lack of trying to read me, her lurkish, low-involvement D2 and lack of engagement.

I think if she's scum neapolitan, it isn't out of the question to crumb her role especially since if she changes her mind and later claims VT, no one's going to go "hey, that was a neapolitan pizza!" I do think that an ascetic vig doesn't make sense with a scum neapolitan, makes more sense as one more unconfirmable role. However, I think the mod could have wanted to make the vig unprotectable by the doc.

Still think it's BNL but just in case.

[BNL]

Bah, I was town.

Not that it matters anyway. Shoot Wingback tonight, and if he somehow survives the shot lynch him tomorrow (he has claimed non-BP), and if he died lynch duppin.

[BNL]

Now that I've flipped town you know there are two town neighbours so use that to discern TTH's alignment.

[BNL]

(assuming Wingback town)