New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)

[Boem_u_dusi]

podoboq ISO is completely useless

[Zachstralkita]

i feel like immortal technique trying to argue with the whole of fox news in this game

[kraska77]

Well I have some stuff to say but this might influence NK 3 so i will shutup and leave it to day 4

What was this about?

i forgot

[shannon]

OK I'm up to Page 62!

Here's everything I've got so far about claims, spoilered. Comments at the end. Sorry for crappy formatting in the comments, have run out of brain and it's time for bed.

Spoiler:

33 – Transcend said he planned to RVS mirhawk the entire time, Implosion comments : I doubt he’d have claimed this if they were scum together

35 – Lapsa says it was null but likes the reasoning

67 – Titus claims Dunn is town based on unknowable/unsayable stuff

91- Varsoon

I HAVEN'T READ ANYTHING.
WHAT'S UP MY N-WORDS?
DON'T WORRY, I'M TOWN
I'VE GOT YOUR BACK.

161 – Zach says VLA is a perfect ‘not get lynched’ card for Airick

207 – Performer responding to A50 - I would think it'd be harder to win after you fake claim, then hard claim on day 1. I believe Aeronaut hosted a game this year where PRs outed themselves early on . Scum won that game.


216 – Performer wants to avoid unnecessary PR talk D1

240 – Performer

I just realized that there are literally only 4 people I played with , in here.
Nosferatu, do you recall the game where Firebringer was scum with Xtoxm Traitor, and what's his face as the 3rd scum? There's something strange going on here and I 'd like for you to try to look at that game. I'm going to dig into that game as well (moderated by chamber). I think that may help us in discerning alignment for Mr. X.

242 – Performer

@Nos I just found it! Man, I sound a little weird in that game LOL. Embarrassingly weird. Guess that's what happens when you're still only 3 months into FM. That game still brings tears to my ears when I read it . Such fantastic townplay. There was constant TvT too but we learned to look over it and focus on the right people. I wish I can say the person's name but I don't want to paint a target on the person.


323 – Zach, Performer, Implosion interesting stuff

347 – Lapsa claims Macho

349 – Titus calls it a gambit and says ‘me too’

367 – Boem says Transcend is going to look very silly after his flip

387 – Performer
Ok. This is going to sound crazy but I want to point out 2 people in here who I want to limit any serious interaction with on d1 at least, because I'm afraid for their safety. I don't want to paint targets on their backs , as I have a huge bias toward specific people and may accidentally draw too much attention to them.

Person X: I played with you when I was Town Mailman and you were in a hydra. We were both town.
We were also VTs in the 14-man large normal, which had 1-shot Bp Doc and Bp Bg.
Time and time again, you can read me well.

Person Y: We played in the Mini Normal where you survived as PR the entire game - impressive. You read me well and defended me throughout the game, which made a further impression on me. I was constantly in this back-and-forth with another Townie. We were both town. In this game , there was a 2-man scum team with 1 Mafia Traitor. I think this game was back in Nov 2015.

412 – Implosion doubts scum would randomly claim macho


499 – Dunn adamant Titus is town

542 – Zach I could vote myself and you'd still need an NK to touch me. Facts.


692 – Dunn specs 3 mafia 3 werewolf bunch of town PRs

793 – Titus claims masons with Dunn (Dunn’s comment on hearing the werewolves ‘howling’)

872 – Zach asks what’s stopping the Masons being NKed, Dunn (873) hopes for doc or (874) JK, bodyguard, mafia having pity

918 – Dunn ‘wouldn’t fake claim’

925 – Wake: Looks bad for Dunn if Titus flips non-mason

959 – Boem is not sure what to make of Masons, I've never played this setup before so I'm confused. All that metagame talk and reading other players based on their metagame doesn't help me either because I've never played with you people before (or this setup) so I feel this game is somewhat beyond my reach at the moment. But I'll keep trying.

925 – Wake

968 – Shannon says not to waste an investigative PR on her (977 Wake questions why) (987 – Boem It can be argued both both ways in my opinion. If you are town you don't want investigative PR to "waste" a check by investigating you. Scum can also ask investigative PR to check them to try to appear like they have nothing to hide. Conclusion: this discussion is pointless.

In my opinion, investigative PR should check people who tend to stay long in the game, that means not getting shot by mafia often.)
1328 – Performer It sounds like you're saying PRs aren't that important.?


1334 Varsoon - Think of it this way. We're playing poker. Dunnstral and Titus just went all in on the first hand. Are you going to fold, or will you meet their gambit and call?
I, for one, am a gambling man. I know what I've got up my sleeves, and I'm confident they're bluffing.

1337 – Varsoon and Zach fake claim masons

1344 – Varsoon
I've got your 'back' is the clue to look at things from back to front.
What's up my N-words is actually referencing Mason, because if read from back to front, it's Nosam.
Furthermore, in my last game as a Mason (Cohen Brothers Mafia), I was not town despite being in a Masonry.
That's why I said "Don't worry, I'm town" here.

Why would I make such a post without reading anything?
What point does it serve?
Purely role-crumbing.


1349 Implosion - This is such a misrepresentation of why we shouldn't vote the masons.

-The odds of it being a scum gambit are so horrifically low. The risk/reward of claiming masons on d1 as scum is absolutely terrible.
-They are outed as power roles; they are, therefore, likely to be killed at night, meaning we don't have to try to sort them at all.
-If by some miracle they are scum, they will keep surviving nights and they will become more and more likely scum candidates as the days go by, allowing us much more confidence in sorting them later
-If we lynch other scum in that time, then the more scum we lynch, the more unlikely the masons are to be lying, making it easier to sort them later
-At massclaim, if there is a huge abundance of power being claimed, they also become easier to sort then


1411 – (if there are masons, which was a gambit) - The other possibility is like, 4 mafia, 1 serial killer, 1 vigillante, and masons?

Zach doesn't know but having like three night kills in these here large setups is the NORM


1417 -
Ok. what's wrong with that? I'm outted mason so why can't I speculate on the setup? I'm not rolefishing and I can't let slip my role by speculating so ??


1474 - Titus knows it, assuming me and her don't both die, it will be revealed later. Or maybe you get shot by vig?

Lapsa is who I would shoot if I were a vig
1524 – Dunn says ‘vig shoot Zac’
1525 – Zach says Dunn: Vig waste your shot

Comments (note: I haven't gone back to check whether the people here are still alive, I'm going off the top of my head)

- 33 reads differently now that Mirhawk has flipped scum. Look at Transcend and Implosion

Dunn

What was the reason Titus thought Dunn was town that perpetuated the mason claim?
Dunn was adamant that Titus was town in 499, why so sure? (scum?)
Titus decides to fake claim masons based on Dunn's comment about hearing the werewolves 'howling'. Dunn can you tell us what you meant here?
Dunn wouldn't fake claim (918), Wake says it looks bad for Dunn if Titus flips non-mason (925). So now this has happened, even though we know Mason was a gambit, what are the implications for Dunn?

Liked Implosion's analysis of the mason claim. Especially this part applies to Dunn now- "If by some miracle they are scum, they will keep surviving nights and they will become more and more likely scum candidates as the days go by, allowing us much more confidence in sorting them later"

1474 - Dunn says "Titus knows it, assuming me and her don't both die, it will be revealed later. Or maybe you get shot by vig? Lapsa is who I would shoot if I were a vig. 1524 – Dunn says ‘vig shoot Zac’
1525 – Zach says Dunn: Vig waste your shot

Given that Dunn has claimed Vig and apparently didn't hit anyone N1, what do we make of this?

Performer

Performer being all cryptic in 240, 242, 387 mentioning games but not names. Why?

Lapsa

Lapsa claimed Macho in 347, did anything come of this?

Boem

Boem soft claims a PR, says Transcend is going to look 'very silly' after Boem flips. But is now claiming VT?
Boem seems unsure of himself around 959, but more sure of himself now. Just from playing the game, or was it fake earlier on?

Varsoon

1334 Varsoon says he knows what he's got in his hand and he's confident the mason claim was a bluff. 1344 gives a bullshit explanation that his 'N WORD' post was a mason crumb, after Zach dragged him in to a mason caim. Has since said it was a Nurse crumb. I think Varsoon is as good as conf town.

[GuyInFreezer]

Woo 13 pages

vc 4.01

Airick10 (5):

beeboy, kraska77, implosion, Zachstralkita, AGar

Zachstralkita (1):

Airick10

Almost50 (1):

Transcend

kraska77 (1):

Almost50

Not Voting:

Varsoon, Boem_u_dusi, shannon, Dunnstral

With

12

votes,

7

to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2016-08-02 12:00:35)

[Boem_u_dusi]

@shannon: I wasn't soft claiming PR there, at least that wasn't my intention. Since I started this game, I've completed around 7-8 games on other sites so I'm feeling better about game mechanics and now I'm much more confident overall.

[Zachstralkita]

@GiF, is that 2 votes on me a typo?

[Boem_u_dusi]

I think massclaiming should be good here in order to possibly catch Varsoon if he's bullshiting about being backup nurse.

[Boem_u_dusi]

Unsure what to make of beeboy.

[Boem_u_dusi]

no
i wont claim before i get my word out
it will hurt town
enough of this crap

It will hurt town?

[Boem_u_dusi]

This is what I'm currently thinking:

Town: { Dunnstral, Zach, Almost50, Transcend, shannon, implosion }
Null : { kraska77, beeboy }
Conditional: { Varsoon }
Scumpool/POE: { Airick10, AGar }

I think Airick10 is going today, but his latest posts are making me think more about it than I expected.

[Boem_u_dusi]

If Airick10 flips scum, AGar is looking much better and vice versa.

[implosion]

We certainly don't need to massclaim for that, Boem; all we'd need is a nurse claim. But I don't really think that's necessary. IMO, the only real way Varsoon is scum is if he's a mafia backup nurse, because his claim so far (that he became a nurse when the doctor died) does strictly require there to be a nurse out there. If he's lying about his roleclaim he's making a huge gambit that there's a nurse out there. Plus outing the nurse is tantamount to outing the doctor (since they will have become a doctor at this point).

I also don't think Varsoon's play is very consistent with mafia backup nurse. His play sort of says to me that he was approaching his role from the angle of "the doctor and the nurse are both confTown" which isn't an angle he'd necessarily even think of as a mafia, because he'd have it clear in his mind that confirmed role ≠ confirmed alignment.

Things on my to-do list with this game:
-ISO Mirhawk and his interactions towards every living slot, + vedith again as a comparison (high priority)
-VCA, specifically looking at every wagon that has existed on someone flipped and any wagons that existed at the same time
-Somehow convince Zach to make a cogent argument for AGar-town

[Boem_u_dusi]

I think you're right here, if Varsoon lied about being backup nurse we'll catch him eventually. I don't understand why Zach townreads AGar so much, but I guess that suggests they are not both scum or Zach is being extremely bold here. Concerning VCA, it's unfortunate that so many townies voted PeregrineV. I think Mirhawk's wagon on D2 is worth taking a closer look. What do you think of beeboy?

[implosion]

I have a few reasons that I think beeboy is town.

I still think sickofit's iso looks somewhat townish, particularly 1287 in which the tone just strikes me as town.
beeboy's play has been wholly underwhelming. The way he claimed miller was somewhat townish (i doubt he read his predecessor's iso if he was scum, and claiming miller without reading his predecessor's iso would be kiiiiiinda risky). His refusal to really do anything has been frustrating but it doesn't feel particularly scummy to me.

It wouldn't surprise me

that much

if he was scum but I don't think anything really points to it. He's certainly a person I can be convinced on.

[Boem_u_dusi]

What is your POE?

[implosion]

That's a good question and honestly it's kind of muddy atm.
Let's see...

I think my current "confident enough to continue ignoring for now" list is:
kraska77
Boem_u_dusi
Dunnstral
Varsoon
shannon
Zachstralkita (even though I've been feeling a little shaky on this lately, particularly if Dunnstral does actually suspect him).

Everyone in that list I think I have good enough reason to not consider right now at all. Leaving:

AGar
Almost50
beeboy
Airick10
Transcend

I've already mentioned I think beeboy is town, but not very strongly; Transcend is also very likely town given how his claiming went. That leaves AGar/Airick/A50. I guess the main thing(s) holding me back from suspecting A50 are:
-Why would scum be given both a jailkeeper and a commuter,
-Why would scum fakeclaim both a jailkeeper and an even-night doctor, and
-Why would A50 claim so quickly on d2.

The first of these, I suppose, is easily solved if A50 is simply a mafia roleblocker. The second is a

bit

stranger. But It isn't outside the realm of possibility by any means: A50 could have been planning a JK claim from the get-go as a scum roleblocker, and Mirhawk simply thought of even-night doc as a cover for 2-shot commuter. The third, idk. Maybe he thought the claim would look better. But it might be the biggest piece of evidence. That said, the fact that he's still alive on d4 is quite strange. It's certainly possible scum think that the doctor would have been on him. But shrug.

Airick I've made my stance clear on but I still need to read his refutation more closely.
AGar I've made my stance clear enough on but hoo boy do I wish I had some cogent arguments in favor of him being town to evaluate

[implosion]

I also could easily be wrong on any of those strong townreads. But I'm ready to justify any of them and have those justifications scrutinized if anyone asks.

[Zachstralkita]

I need you to justify that Zachstralkita townread

[Zachstralkita]

Airick is L-2 let's ZIP HIM UP

[kraska77]

Zach's confidence that airick will flip scum is so weird
Considering how we're voting airick mainly through elimination, i can see a little hesitation in everyone's posts except zach's

At this point zach is only a conditional town read for me because agar feels more scummy and they don't make much sense as scum partners

[Almost50]

Frankly I'm getting bored, and I don't think my prime suspect (beeboy) is getting enough attention, so let's just end the day.

VOTE: Airick

[Dunnstral]

Given that Dunn has claimed Vig and apparently didn't hit anyone N1, what do we make of this?

....A50 jailkept me

[Transcend]

VOTE: Air

bored

[beeboy]

Good hammer,p.