Open 647: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[davesaz]

Official Vote Count

Not Voting

(8): Transcend, karnos, PenguinPower, Persivul, MURDERCAT, SirCakez, Ranger, Chip Butty

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-08-09 18:00:00)

[Transcend]

Lol lol lol lol lol lol

[SirCakez]

ffs we should have lynched Transcend
We nolynch now I think?

[Transcend]

VOTE: Chip Butty

[SirCakez]

^ scum scum scum

[karnos]

It is LYLO. Strategically, the correct move is to vote no lynch, because our chance of lynching scum will be better tomorrow after another night kill.

Unless there is a cop with new information to share... but I think all the claimed cops are dead or already gave results?

[MURDERCAT]

I suck

[MURDERCAT]

Cake is scum

[SirCakez]

Like how Anen was scum?

[MURDERCAT]

Cake would have died last night if he were town, why take out the n5 cop vs the unknown night cop?

[SirCakez]

Because the n5 cop was confirmed town?

[MURDERCAT]

transcend unvote please

[Transcend]

Anyways, video of me eating a sock to be up when i get home. Get hyped.

[Transcend]

We lynch today btw you motherfuckers. If there's an n4 doc they can save into a mislynch even if we screw up.

[Ranger]

Aneninen(6): Transcend, podoboq, karnos, PenguinPower, Persivul, MURDERCAT

I swear, Murdercat, if you weren't literally

confirmed town by

my own result

, I'd be thinking you were maybe scum right now.

The Aneninen lynch should not have happened.

But since it has... {podoboq, Murdercat} are hard-confirmed. {karnos, PenguinPower} are soft-confirmed. The leftovers? {Transcend, Persivul}.
Off the wagon, you get...

Transcend(3): SirCakez, Ranger, Aneninen
SirCakez(1): Chip Butty

...This. I'll simplify it for you. I'm town, Aneninen flipped town. {SirCakez, Chip Butty}.
In short, we've got a guaranteed scum on the wagon.

We absolutely

are

lynching today, because of the hard and soft-confirms.

This game is at this point cracked wide open with so much as an iota of thorough analysis.

Don't screw it up by ignoring me again.

[Ranger]

podoboq (5): Chip Butty, Persivul, MURDERCAT, Smithereens, karnos

On this, we have {Murdercat, Smithereens} (hard town) and {karnos} (soft town). This was 5 votes, on a town player. There is at least one scum in {Chip Butty, Persivul}.

Smithereens (6): SirCakez, Transcend, podoboq, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral, Smithereens

I'll simplify this: the only two unflipped on this are {SirCakez, Transcend}. There was scum here, definitely at least one.

Smithereens (6): SirCakez, Transcend, podoboq, Dunnstral, Smithereens, karnos

Given the next-highest wagon was podoboq (town), this strongly suggests that karnos is actually town. Why?

Simple: there's no need for a scum-karnos to join the wagon, when it's already this strong without his help.

Smithereens (5): SirCakez, podoboq, Dunnstral, Smithereens, karnos
podoboq (4): Aneninen, PenguinPower, Ranger, Persivul

Deja vu to Stack The Deck. Namely, they were dueling town wagons. As in that game, that suggests scum evenly split. Smithereens, as discussed, has {SirCakez, karnos} as possibilities (strongly, SirCakes). podoboq has {PenguingPower, Persivul} as possibilities (strongly, Persivul).

podoboq (6): Aneninen, PenguinPower, Smithereens, Ranger, DixC, Persivul [L-1]
Smithereens (5): SirCakez, podoboq, Dunnstral, karnos, Transcend [L-2]

Remember, dueling town wagons applies here. Scum didn't care which was lynched. Still, on podoboq, we have unflipped...{PenguinPower, Persivul}. Penguin's soft-cleared.
On Smithereens, we've got {SirCakez, karnos, Transcend}. karnos is soft-cleared.

podoboq (5): Aneninen, PenguinPower, Smithereens, Ranger, DixC
PenguinPower (4): podoboq, MURDERCAT, Transcend, SirCakez

Herein enters the dilemma. Was it, in fact, three town wagons D1? Because, on unknown Penguin, we've got a counterwagon to podoboq (town), made up of two flipped town and {Transcend, SirCakez}.

PenguinPower (6): podoboq, MURDERCAT, Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty, Aneninen

Here, Chip also joins in. If PenguinPower is scum, I'm not sure what this would tell me in terms of {Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty}, but if we go by the assumption PenguinPower is town, it tells us that it's

extremely

unlikely that {Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty} is the scumteam.

podoboq (6): PenguinPower, Ranger, Smithereens, podoboq, Aneninen, Persivul
PenguinPower (4): MURDERCAT, Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty

REGARDLESS of PenguinPower's alignment, Persivul's positioning there looks sketchy. He's either voting the counterwagon to scum to L-1 (not a good place), or both wagons are on town and he's the ONLY player on podoboq who isn't confirmed town. The latter looks more likely, since the PenguinPower wagon has {Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty} all on it.

Interestingly enough...

Smithereens (5): karnos, Persivul, PenguinPower, podoboq, SirCakez

BOTH wagons are gone in this VC. As in, GONE, gone. See for yourself:

Spoiler: 891 VC

podoboq (6): PenguinPower, Ranger, Smithereens, podoboq, Aneninen, drmyshottyizsik
PenguinPower (4): MURDERCAT, Transcend, SirCakez, Chip Butty
Smithereens (2): karnos, Dunnstral
MURDERCAT (1): DixC

Spoiler: Next Votecount, 990

Smithereens (5): karnos, drmyshottyizsik, PenguinPower, podoboq, SirCakez
Dunnstral (3): Ranger, Smithereens, MURDERCAT
Aneninen (2): DixC, Dunnstral

Not Voting (3): Aneninen, Chip Butty, Transcend

GONE, gone. Not a single member voting

either

wagon. Instead, we've got the sudden reemergence of the Smithereens wagon: {karnos, Persivul, PenguinPower, SirCakez}. The most fascinating fact with this votecount? Dunnstral was town, and had an all-town wagon. Aneninen was town, and had an all-town wagon. Smithereens was town. In Not Voting, you've got {Chip Butty, Transcend}. So, if all three scum were on the Smithereens wagon, it was because they wanted to dismantle PenguinPower's wagon. This would necessitate {PenguinPower, karnos} as scum, with the third as either Persivul or SirCakez. If there was only one (there had to be at least one), then PenguinPower and karnos are both town, we had all town wagons on D1, and between SirCakez and Persivul, we'll have one scum, with both {Chip Butty, Transcend} as scum, off the wagon.

If there were two, the combinations are either {karnos, PenguinPower} OR {SirCakez, Persivul}. With {Chip Butty, Transcend} having one scum.

Smithereens (7): karnos, Persivul, PenguinPower, podoboq, SirCakez, Transcend, Dunnstral
Dunnstral (5): Ranger, Smithereens, MURDERCAT, Chip Butty, DixC

We know the day ENDED as two town wagons. So, either all three scum went on Smithereens, or Chip Butty is scum. Because Smithereens had ALL of {karnos, Persivul, PenguinPower, Transcend, SirCakez} on.

Dunnstral (5): Transcend, MURDERCAT, Aneninen, DixC, karnos
Transcend (3): Ranger, podoboq, SirCakez

On D2, we get this immediately. Here, we've got {Transcend, karnos}, with karnos as soft-confirmed.
We've also got it as slightly more unlikely {Transcend, SirCakez} are scum together.

Dunnstral (5): Aneninen, karnos, Chip Butty, DixC, PenguinPower
DixC (3): Dunnstral, SirCakez, Transcend

Here, we've got {karnos, Chip Butty, PenguinPower} (with two soft-confirmed), versus {SirCakez, Transcend}. Again, dueling town wagons here. Scum likely divided evenly.

Dunnstral (5): Aneninen, Chip Butty, DixC, PenguinPower, Persivul
DixC (3): Dunnstral, SirCakez, Transcend

The latter doesn't change, but the former becomes {Chip Butty, PenguinPower, Persivul}. This is unlikely to be all scum, but basically impossible to be all-town.

Dunnstral (7): Aneninen, Chip Butty, DixC, PenguinPower, Persivul, Dunnstral, karnos

For a fact, we know there were no scum wagoned D2. (D1 is dependent on PenguinPower.) But here, we've got {Chip Butty, PenguinPower, Persivul, karnos}. The main difference between this and D1 is Chip on and Transcend off rather than vice-versa. (If this really

were

a repeat of Stack The Deck, that would indicate both Chip Butty and Transcend are, in fact, actually town, as...Chip Butty and mhsmith were last game, with both karnos and PenguinPower as scum, with the last as either SirCakez or Persivul.) But notably, SirCakez is also off. (I actually

am

getting some strong worrying deja vu vibes from that fact alone actually.)

Transcend(4): SirCakez, Ranger, podoboq, Chip Butty

Transcend is unlikely to be scum with {SirCakez, Chip Butty}.

Aneninen(4): Transcend, podoboq, karnos, PenguinPower
Transcend(3): SirCakez, Ranger, Chip Butty

The counterwagon to Transcend? Aneninen. Which has {Transcend, karnos, PenguinPower} all on it.

From there,

Aneninen(3): Transcend, podoboq, karnos
Transcend(4): SirCakez, Ranger, Chip Butty, Aneninen
SirCakez(2): MURDERCAT, Persivul

...We get this, then...

Aneninen(4): Transcend, podoboq, karnos, MURDERCAT
Transcend(4): SirCakez, Ranger, Chip Butty, Aneninen

...This, and finally...

Aneninen(6): Transcend, podoboq, karnos, PenguinPower, Persivul, MURDERCAT (Lynch)
Transcend(3): SirCakez, Ranger, Aneninen

...This.

I'll process all of this tomorrow. But this is simple pattern-matching.

[Chip Butty]

This is just my second time in LYLO, and I kind of fucked up the first time, so not really all that sure what I am doing. I know the conventional logic is to no-lynch, and I guess I can live with that. But if we do lynch, I think it should be Persi. First, he is in the Shotty slot. Second, look at how he slipped onto the Anen wagon yesterday. Third, he is good at scumming, as I learned in Open 640.

I think Trans was prob too committed to the Anen wagon to be scum, but we should (1) enjoy watching him eat his sock and (2) stop listening to him. Second choice for scum would be Cakes, I guess. Third, no idea, but one step at a time. First step is to decide whether we are going to lynch or not.

[Transcend]

As promised

Spoiler: Me eating a sock. Turn volume up for the best results.

It's the internet. I don't care that I was wrong. Nothing should be taken seriously on it.

[Persivul]

I'm a cop

This cop is nk'd before a N5 cop. There shouldn't even be discussion, unless people want to look for his buddies.

VOTE: SirCakez

[Persivul]

It is LYLO. Strategically, the correct move is to vote no lynch, because our chance of lynching scum will be better tomorrow after another night kill.

Generally, yes. With this NK, no.

Unless there is a cop with new information to share... but I think all the claimed cops are dead or already gave results?

There's cakez - you know, the guy who would be dead if he were really a cop.

[Persivul]

Cake would have died last night if he were town, why take out the n5 cop vs the unknown night cop?

^This.

[Transcend]

gun to head: i'm not liking pers' initial push. it looks... scripted

[Persivul]

gun to head: i'm not liking pers' initial push. it looks... scripted

I don't know if you're scum or VI, but here's the thing: on N3 with a claimed N5 cop and a claimed N? cop, scum kill the N? cop. This isn't rocket surgery. When anen was lynched yesterday, every town person should have been thinking

If there's a kill tonight that isn't cakez, cakez is scum.

[Transcend]

or, you're wifoming and think you can get cakez lynched

[Transcend]

also i'm okayy with the title VI because i have not successfully located and lynched one single mafia this game.