Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[TellTaleHeart]

I see Katsuki flipped red.
Is everyone thinking that's not definitive because it's assumed scum have a similar factional ability they did in the first game?

[Nahdia]

that's the assumption yes but i think it's far more likely he's just scum.

[pieguyn]

I think the world is ending. never has Katsuki posted so many things in one game that have synced so well with my thoughts, nor do I think he's manipulating me since there is no way he could have known I was thinking this.

yes, this is me declaring that I specifically think Nahdia looks really bad on the Katsuki wagon.

anyway

unvote:

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

also Katsuki, you actually said it after Touhou 3 ended. I tend not to forget those kinds of things.

[TellTaleHeart]

Whoever's in beeboy and UTL's slots are probably town.

[TellTaleHeart]

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

Is there a compelling reason why scum would've painted Katsuki?

[pieguyn]

Is there a compelling reason why scum would've painted Katsuki?

TSQ's slot was (and still is) a consensus scum read, or at least no one was town reading it. I don't really know why people today have been finding it unlikely.

[TellTaleHeart]

I'm shocked you all lynched lalaladucks.

Her interactions with Ari point very strongly to her being town.

[TellTaleHeart]

Has anyone checked out TBG's miller claim?

[TellTaleHeart]

I think TSQ's opening posts are kind of town. :\

I think TBG's opening posts are kind of scum.

[TellTaleHeart]

Having a color miller

and

giving scum the ability to paint seems like overpowering scum to me.

[kraska77]

^Imo if this setup is really like we're currently assuming it to be, it seems really disadvantageous for scum so I'm sure we're missing sth. iirc @sthsmart said he had reason to doubt tbg, im assuming it has to do with Miller claim?

[TellTaleHeart]

So far, the people I want to lynch are neither of the leading wagons.

[kraska77]

@tth what do you think of this?

Pie is a very strong pick for it actually, given that she's trying to make this a pissing contest that I think she knows that she doesn't win.

But this is so weird
Can it really be that easy?
Something is off, this setup seems really disadvantageous for scum
I'm pretty sure there's some new twist to color manipulation going on in this game that we haven't figured out yet
The color flip phase makes the first two days equivalent to four days...that's way too much information in a short period of time and makes surviving difficult for scum

I think town knowing colors can be manipulated right from the beginning greatly undermines mafia's power. It would make more sense if town are ignorant of color manipulation at first and the PRs are forced to soft in order to inform town...but that's not even the case here. So there must be something on the scum side to balance powers with town bc this seems unfair from scum pov

[TellTaleHeart]

for TTH, a lot of where I stand on S_S/Katsuki (and reads-wise in general) is in my posts this game day, so I'm really hoping once you get to there you'll be able to at least actually discuss it with me unlike what's been going on ever since RC came into the game. I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

I'm through page 43 and if my two choices are really Something_Smart and Katsuki, I would definitely go with Katsuki.

[TellTaleHeart]

{Pie, Katsuki, Bella}

We are flipping and lynching in these 3.

Replace pie with TBG and this is where I am in terms of reads.

[pieguyn]

I'm through page 43 and if my two choices are really Something_Smart and Katsuki, I would definitely go with Katsuki.

keep reading.

[TellTaleHeart]

I don't think Katsuki's recent play looks like anything he would do as scum and I find the wagon on him really questionable.

I can't say I agree on either of those counts.

[TellTaleHeart]

Katsuki's earlier posts directed to me (from 1137) are a huge towntell, because in addition to it perfectly explaining his behavior over the course of the game, I do not know him to be anywhere near the type of player who would feign that much disengagement from the game as scum. I've seen him lurk as scum but it's always strategic, it's never like _that_. the general tone of his posts today (I've never seen him be this openly dissatisfied with a game) and the fact he's decided he'd just sheep me/Nahdia at this point (which is something I believe he does at least semi-regularly) are both consistent with this, too.

I'm trying to parse this town read and I feel like you're saying, "Katsuki isn't scum because if he

were

he would fit a different behavior pattern." Is that correct?

Admittedly, I have very limited acquaintance with Katsuki's meta so that may be why it's not really resonating with me.

[TellTaleHeart]

VOTE: TehBrawlGuy

This is who I feel is likeliest to flip scum of the bunch.

[TellTaleHeart]

@tth what do you think of this?

Pie is a very strong pick for it actually, given that she's trying to make this a pissing contest that I think she knows that she doesn't win.

But this is so weird
Can it really be that easy?
Something is off, this setup seems really disadvantageous for scum
I'm pretty sure there's some new twist to color manipulation going on in this game that we haven't figured out yet
The color flip phase makes the first two days equivalent to four days...that's way too much information in a short period of time and makes surviving difficult for scum

I think town knowing colors can be manipulated right from the beginning greatly undermines mafia's power. It would make more sense if town are ignorant of color manipulation at first and the PRs are forced to soft in order to inform town...but that's not even the case here. So there must be something on the scum side to balance powers with town bc this seems unfair from scum pov

I don't really get your point here.

Knowing colors can be manipulated undermines the perceived reliability of the "color flipping" after Day 1, which works in scum's favor since the results get more and more ambiguous and less and less actionable.

[kraska77]

My main point is, 2 flips per day generate more information than usual in the first two days

[pieguyn]

I'm trying to parse this town read and I feel like you're saying, "Katsuki isn't scum because if he were he would fit a different behavior pattern." Is that correct?

for the most part, yes. if you want I can link the scum games of his I've seen so you can get more of a feel for what I'm trying to say here?

also, about S_S, specifically, can you look at 1338 and tell me from what POV you see his play this game day making more sense? I really don't see why he'd be this focused on this whole bussing theory he's pushing (things like "she might have bussed Aris D1", "she used the town cred from Aris D1 to lead a mislynch D2", in general everything he's wrote about me recently) when he supposedly had other reasoning for scum reading me and has had one and a half weeks to do something (read: anything at all. he seems to have completely gave up pushing it after he vaguely alluded to it in his reads list all the way back D2) about it; the only way I see it making sense is if he thought he could fabricate a scum read on me, but then had no idea how to go about pushing it after I made it obvious the angle about bussing wouldn't work and can't come up with any viable material based on my actual play he could push me with.

TBG is someone who I have huge conflicting feelings on. I hated some of his posts D1 and his interactions with lala D2 and RC this game day, but aside from that I haven't taken issue with any of his posts and I think he'd look really good on a S_S scum flip. I don't think I agree the miller claim would make this scum sided, though, since more likely than not it'd just claim immediately; it's just one player who can't be reliably color flipped no matter what. or am I missing your point?

[pieguyn]

also I'd be interested in hearing if you think S_S has made a single reasonable point in his interactions with people about me. the vast majority of what he's written recently has been overly semantic, and read more like he's nitpicking on minor things in order to look like he has a point than actually doing anything - which maybe he's just really illogical, but he's doing things like asking me random questions about irrelevant things or getting in an argument over how TBG's reason for town reading me not being "enough to warrant a strong town read", instead of just trying to explain to people why I'm scum. the focus here is just all wrong and off.

[TellTaleHeart]

My main point is, 2 flips per day generate more information than usual in the first two days

I don't think that makes it townsided.

10:3 (which I'm assuming unless there's reason to think otherwise) is inherently very scumsided. The mechanic by itself doesn't bridge the gap.

[TellTaleHeart]

TBG is someone who I have huge conflicting feelings on. I hated some of his posts D1 and his interactions with lala D2 and RC this game day, but aside from that I haven't taken issue with any of his posts and I think he'd look really good on a S_S scum flip. I don't think I agree the miller claim would make this scum sided, though, since more likely than not it'd just claim immediately; it's just one player who can't be reliably color flipped no matter what. or am I missing your point?

You are, but that's because I haven't really outlined my point yet.

A lot of what he's done, the early pushes on Nina, Ranger, and lalaladucks, just rub me in all the wrong ways and they were all on town. The Ari vote felt like a bus. Ari's mentioning of him was very weak and perfunctory. I also think he's sticking to you way too much.

I don't buy the claim, but that's the last bullet on the list.