Mini 1805 [C'est fini!]

[Infinity 324]

What's your read on eggman, titus

[DrippingGoofball]

Titus is town

[Dragon of the West]

@NJAC:

...alright, where are they?
We need 3 more votes to lynch NJAC; since Creature's being replaced, I suggest... having the people from Creature's wagon hop over to NJAC or DGB and allowing Creature's replacement to get their role during the night?

@petroleumjelly

: Vote NJAC - while it seems DGB is both of our top scumreads, I feel like the NJAC lynch has a much better chance of happening today.

@F-oh-ex:

I never managed to ask this. How do you feel about MM4's defense of Smithereens, given it seemed to you that Smith was your toppest townread?

Why would we switch votes off of Creature to lynch someone else? Getting himself replaced doesn't get him a clean slate. I find it weird that you would suggest trying to get someone else closer to a lynch while waiting for a replacement for the slot we think is scum.
If creature lynch happens and he flips scum I'm gunning for eggman

[F-oh-ex]

@NJAC:

@F-oh-ex:

I never managed to ask this. How do you feel about MM4's defense of Smithereens, given it seemed to you that Smith was your toppest townread?

I don't really feel anything about it. DGB did shake my townread on Smith a bit but I'll hold on my final opinion until I ISO them both.
I don't think bad of MM4's defence of Smith, just like I don't feel bad about Titus defending Smith just a few posts above, for the reason stated above.
Although my biggest reason for townleaning on MM4 - not being partners with Creature - is out the window since we probably have a SK.

Egg, why do you think we have a Vig? Shooting Robb/Dwlee would make little to no sense for a Vig and perfect sense for a SK.

@DotW: Egg is Town though. This idea was still horrible.

[Derek12]

@Eggman

What are your thoughts on NJAC/DBG? I mean them specifically, not their predecessors.

[Dragon of the West]

@DotW: Egg is Town though. This idea was still horrible.

Let me get back to you on this

[Dragon of the West]

@egg: how do you feel about the creature wagon? Is he a possible lynch candidate for you today? And what would you say about me wanting to jump right on your wagon following a Creature lynch if he flips scum?

[NJAC]

My apologies. I was looking for questions on the current page, and I found none.

Titus: You probably already answered this question, but why wouldn't you need to read the game as town..? Gains points for trying to catch NJAC with a possible scumslip.

What "scumslip" are you talking about? Are you reading the game?

Daytalk is enabled.

Hmm...genuine or fake townslip?

The question is why you didn't call out NJAC for a scumslip there.

Because I needed his response to determine if it was a scumslip or not. Thanks a lot.

NJAC: not sure I have stuff to say about this slot, so let me bring up the fact once more that both NJAC and Titus had extremely similar OPs.

What the similar OPs say to you about my alignment?

NAI, at least without Titus' flip. If either Titus or NJAC flips town, it's just a weird coincidence. If one flips mafioso, it's reason for suspicion on the other, since it stands to reason Smithereens or MM4 could have left a message to their replacement in the PT along the lines of what the OP was.

1) There's ABSOLUTELY NO SCUMSLIP. I repeat what I already said (and that's why I asked you if you were indeed reading the game): Daytalk is mentioned in the very first post of this thread. In fact it has been mentioned throughout the game several times.

Titus gains no town point for supposedly trying to catch me with a possible scumslip, as you said, it's more likely that she faked a townslip there. I mean scum would be more careful about mentioning daytalk. And scumTitus could try to fake that she didn't know about it.

2) Look: I literally copied, pasted and made minor changes to the first post of Titus. It has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with our alignments. Scum wouldn't be that blatantly obvious. If something my entrance copying Titus is "akward" as Infinity said, but not AI.

[NJAC]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

[DrippingGoofball]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

Didn't say anything about meta did I

[Titus]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

Didn't say anything about meta did I

Cmon just help me with NJAC here?

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

Have I asked for a more detailed explanation already? To me it seems lynching SK is great too because we drop from 2 NKs to just 1. Or do YOU have something against lynching SK?

Suppose there is 3 Scum and 1 SK.

If we lynch the SK today and there is a nightkill on Town (the only reasonable assumption), we drop down to 8 players with 3 Mafia remaining which puts in a constant state of Mislynch-and-Lose (assuming a nightkill is not prevented or missed).

If we lynch mafia today, then we suddenly open up another way for us to kill scum: by scum killing each other at night.

Put another way: if we lynch SK, then we also probably have to manually lynch every scum in the game without being wrong once. That is incredibly unlikely. Instead, we need to bank on the natural balance of the game, which in effect relies on scum nightkilling each other. A single crosskill is as good as a correct lynch; and a correct lynch followed by a crosskill is even better. The best part is (for us), is that is also to the scum's advantage to attempt to crosskill. Having three factions in a game has a way of oddly 'balancing' because each faction has to keep the other factions in check. Having more nightkills definitely takes things out of our hands to an extent, but it actually increases our chances of winning on the whole.

2.)

I don't see how "setting up lynches" is as horrible as you make it out to be.

Setting up lynches is quite bad when there is not information to support it. Here, Smithereens made a bargain to lynch one player Day One (with presumably no information) in exchange in lynching another player Day Two (based on no information while also promising to essentially ignore information gained during Night One). In this case, Smithereens offered to lynch Creature in exchange for lynching crazycrabman. We already know that lynching crazycrabman was not going to work in our favor, and it's possible Creature is Town as well. If Smithereens is scum it's a path to victory; if Smithereens is Town it was tying himself to a bad bargain for bad reasons. It is bad play.

There

are

situations where "setting up lynches" is fine, but those generally involve using logic based on known information --

not

as a method of bargaining.

3.)

Also, you accused me of not wanting to shift lynch and now you accuse Smith of tryign to persuade you to shift?

I am uncertain if you are purposefully playing dense.

You

realized that people

needed

to shift their votes in order to help reach a lynch. You had the power to put a player at L-1 instead of tying the votes. And yet you never offered to do so. That is at best antitown.

Smithereens

actively tried to get other people to join particular wagons, going so far as bargaining/setting up lynches to do so. The argument put down at the end of Day One was especially bad:

discounting the voters on the MM4 wagon who know how to read MM4, there isn't anyone voting MM4. So not much of a wagon in other words. There's nothing wrong with that logic.

Both players literally had four votes on them, but Smithereens tried to act like there was not a "real" wagon on MarioManiac4 as an argument for voting for crazycrabman instead. Given that crazycrabman was lynched and flipped Town, this reflects rather poorly. Also of note, the end of Day One was literally the

first time

Smithereens had ever directly mentioned MarioManiac4. And rather than talking about MarioManiac4, Smithereens instead attacked the people

voting

for MarioManiac4.

4.)

Couple that with MarioManiac4's analysis of Smithereens:

Smithereens- nothing really of note.

... and I think there is a

more

than plausible scum-pairing. You (F-oh-ex) actually seem like a very plausible third, given that your entire game has pretty much been (i) attacking Creature and Eggman, (ii) switching to crazycrabman without offering to vote MarioManiac4, (iii) softly defending MarioManiac4 a few times during Day One, and (iv) what looked like a

very

strange attempt at tying me to MarioManiac4 just earlier by accusing of me of "grasping at straws" and being "suspicious" for considering various factors in whether MarioManiac4 might be Town or Scum.

To clarify, the soft defenses:

Okay then.

I think Mario is acting different from when I played with town!him, do you think he's showing hesitance in his reads?

That's your second read (after atm) where your only base is your previous game with that person. I don't feel like trusting this too much.

...

Akigoku is most likely going to be replaced.

Eggman's posts feel like scum questioning, but at least he's trying.

MarioManiac4's reads look pure noise.

Smithereens looks opportunistic, but I am open to believe he might've misrepresented me.

stelo did an RVS vote but hasn't commented in the discussion I had with Robbnva.

The only reads MM4 gave were on atm and Derek. Not much of a noise. In fact, he posted 3 times total.

And you pretty much haven't otherwise talked about MarioManiac4 except to mention that he is a Townlean. From the looks of it, the three of you are playing a game of "don't touch each other." But I think you're busted.

~~~~

I think there is at least one scumpair in {DrippingGoofball (Smithereens), F-oh-ex, and MarioManiac4 (NJAC)}. These are my preferred votes. I feel strongest about the Smithereens/DrippingGoofball slot.

// Edited formatting error on request - Sméagol

[NJAC]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

Didn't say anything about meta did I

Ok. Why is she town?

[Infinity 324]

petroleum, how about we lynch NJAC today, and when he flips scum, we can look into DGB? I think DGB and smith displayed a careless attitude that's more likely to come from town, but it's possible you're right.

[DrippingGoofball]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

Didn't say anything about meta did I

Cmon just help me with NJAC here?

Sure

VOTE: NJAC

[DrippingGoofball]

Titus is town

Another shitty read based off of meta

Didn't say anything about meta did I

Ok. Why is she town?

Her way of playing and thinking are from a town mindset. It's hard for me to put into words. It's the way she is approaching the game's events. She's town.

[DrippingGoofball]

Suppose there is 3 Scum and 1 SK.

Does vig instead of SK change your theories at all?

[DrippingGoofball]

Also PJ, aside from me, if you were a vig, who would you vig?

[DrippingGoofball]

One more for you PJ.

I die and flip town. Who is the scum then?

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

petroleum, how about we lynch NJAC today, and when he flips scum, we can look into DGB? I think DGB and smith displayed a careless attitude that's more likely to come from town, but it's possible you're right.

If my analysis is correct, it largely hinges on Smithereens (now DrippingGoofball) being scum unless it is F-oh-ex/MarioManiac4 (now NJAC). I otherwise have a slight Townread on MarioManiac4's (now NJAC's) slot. That said, I preferred MarioManiac4's Day One play to NJAC's play. I may be overdue in adjusting my read.

2.)

Does vig instead of SK change your theories at all?

No. I am hunting for the scumgroup.

3.)

Also PJ, aside from me, if you were a vig, who would you vig?

On Night One, I would have vigged Robbnva. If you are asking who I would vig tonight (assuming I had a second shot), then that is not a question I am going to answer.

4.)

One more for you PJ.

I die and flip town. Who is the scum then?

I would need to reassess the game. But the first players I would at least look at are F-oh-ex/MarioManiac4 (NJAC), atm483 (Titus), and Dragon of the West.

[Eggman]

[

V/LA tomorrow (7/31) for my birthday.

We're traveling and used up basically all of our shared data plan]

[Eggman]

@Eggman, What do you think of both Creature and NJAC as scum?

I get why people would think it, but I didn't see any Creature/MM4 interactions, so I'm not completely sold. If DGB flipped town, though, I'd be set on this scumteam.

@Eggman

What are your thoughts on NJAC/DBG? I mean them specifically, not their predecessors.

i will come back to this question tomorrow, but for now i'll just say that i feel like dgb hasn't been playing the game completely seriously

@egg: how do you feel about the creature wagon? Is it a possible lynch candidate for you today? And what would you say about me wanting to jump right on your wagon following a Creature lynch if he flips scum?

I suppose it is, but I would definitely prefer the NJAC lynch. And I would say "I understand why you're doing this, and I have nothing else to my defense but 'I'm a VT'".

2) Look: I literally copied, pasted and made minor changes to the first post of Titus. It has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with our alignments. Scum wouldn't be that blatantly obvious. If something my entrance copying Titus is "akward" as Infinity said, but not AI.

oooooohhhh
You should have said you copy-pasted from the beginning, then neither of us would be having this silly feud. As it stands, I don't think that's AI at all. Lazy, but not AI. Unless it's too scummy to be scum, but I don't think it is.

Welp, I'm off to bed now.

[Derek12]

@NJAC

Are you still catching up?

[Sméagol]

Vote count tonight (only one new vote that I can see now).

The deadline will be on hold for 3 more days. After that, I'll extend the deadline with 2 more days, and we'll continue with an empty slot. The empty slot won't count for win conditions and majority, but can be filled in as long as the game is running, and can be voted for or targeted. That's my idea, if you have any issues with it yuou can PM me.

[NJAC]

@NJAC

Are you still catching up?

Yes sir. Hopefully I'll finish catching up tomorrow.