Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[Transcend]

Or I'm just WIFOM'ing and confusing you because I'm the last wolf, in which case what I'm talking about carries a much different meaning.

why would you say that e_e

[Transcend]

he's the dude to ask, not me.

[Tenshii]

It was a general question towards anybody who could answer it.

[Tenshii]

@mh Hypothetically Transcend is scum and Thor is town....

Transcend wants to shoot Thor because?
Transcend wants to shoot Io because?

[Tenshii]

Oh wait nvm I totally missed it

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii: I think you'd need to ask rosske. It's not obvious to me exactly what he was trying to achieve with those posts.

[mhsmith0]

Or I'm just WIFOM'ing and confusing you because I'm the last wolf, in which case what I'm talking about carries a much different meaning.

why would you say that e_e

Why wouldn't I? If I'm town, I'm either challenging you to see how you react or I just don't really care about making vaguely suspicious-looking posts, and if I'm a wolf, I'm trying to manipulate you in some way. What do you think it means?.

[mhsmith0]

@mh Hypothetically Transcend is scum and Thor is town....

Transcend wants to shoot Thor because?
Transcend wants to shoot Io because?

Hypothetically Trans is last wolf. Trans's optimal shot is Thor. Trans could be running a scam, or could be lazy in his NK thinking. But in general he's probably going to want to SPK and push through to the end. If he's doing something else, it's probably with the goal of mislynching Thor in the final three, and with that in mind, it makes sense to evaluate Trans in the context of that kind of plan. Is he actively prepping the way forward for an eventual ML of Thor, for instance?

[Transcend]

I think you're correct in that if I were scum I had several more reasons to kill Thor > Io.

But this is just one kill.

What if it's a gambit on my behalf (just like PJM).

I can guarantee that it's not.

But how come you trust it's not?

[Transcend]

WHAT IS SPK BTW LOL!>!??!/!?!?!

[mhsmith0]

SPK = Strong Player Kill. See http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p8250637

[mhsmith0]

I think you're correct in that if I were scum I had several more reasons to kill Thor > Io.

But this is just one kill.

What if it's a gambit on my behalf (just like PJM).

I can guarantee that it's not.

But how come you trust it's not?

Do I fully trust it? No. Is it a piece of evidence that makes me less likely to want you dead? Yes. It goes against the framework of what I'd expect if you were the last wolf, which means that either my framework is wrong (and I certainly need to keep an eye out for this), or you're just not the last wolf.

[Transcend]

ope missed that post.

pedit: fair 'nuff.

[mhsmith0]

lol meant to post this a while ago. oops. Anyway...

So among the players who were around to take the shot (excluding Io since she's dead and flipped green):

Would very likely just kill Thor

mhsmith0 (you can believe me or not, but if I'm the last goon I'm shooting Thor basically 100% of the time and lock in that town read he had of me while getting rid of someone who'd be especially likely to catch a screwup of mine)
Luna Fox (just generically obvious kill, she has zero reason to "rock the boat", and in a world where she's gonna pull the strategic sub out stunt, she's gonna leave her replacement with a town bereft of its strongest player)
Transcend (gets rid of someone who's shown on and off suspicion of Transcend [without the kill really seeming to point to Transcend] ), as well as a voice who Transcend wasn't able to influence)
gigabyteTroubadour (caveat here that they may not have fully thought it through, but their optimal move is always a thor shot last night)

Constrained options, no really good shots to spread around suspicion:

Thor665

Others

Tenshii - expressed in 1721 that he didn't see why Thor would be an obvious first shot. Also could have been an intentional avoidance of a shot against someone who went after him pre PC flip
Rosske - could have been an attempt to silence Io, could have been a shot by someone who just hasn't been particularly dialed into the game.

[Transcend]

hold it there mhsmith

you have at the moment based on the kill tenshii/rosske as your best scum candidates

but every time i've tried to lynch rosske, you've turned your nose on it and mocked me.

why's that?

[tojam2]

Haven't seen any votes since the last VC, despite 4 new pages of content.

EDIT:

VC Day 4 - 3

Transcend L-3 - Rosske
Rosske L-3 - Transcend
Tenshii L-3 - Thor665

(expired on 2016-08-29 09:30:00)

[Transcend]

VOTE: tojam2

[Thor665]

Anyone firmly townreading Transcend is welcome to convince me to join a different wagon.

I currently townread him, and have noted on multiple occasions that you're making up buzzwords and attacking him over them - why are you not noticing that?

Okay so you're defining distant as in not getting involved. How is this not getting involved? Is pushing Phantom, defending Karnos, defending self, asking questions not getting involved?

Yes.
And you have now asked me for the third time the same question - I already described why I don't think you're involved.

So because I'm being distant, people aren't responding to me. So how can people decline to respond to me in the first place if I'm asking questions aka getting involved?

I don't see why asking questions and not pursuing answers defends the position that you are involved.

I mean sure I guess if you wanna do that go ahead. I 100% disagree with it though. By that logic, if he flipped town would you townread me? To the extent that you scumread me now?

No, I wouldn't, but there's a big difference in a two person scum game of defending a flipped scum and defending a flipped town.

I also don't recall Luna particularly chiming in with support - if you think there's a case there feel free to present it.

I specifically remember Luna saying how she resonated with me and how she felt the whole argument between Thor+Io vs Karnos was TvT.

If you feel there's a case there feel free to present it - what you are doing is lisiting something you think may have happened. You're not stating a belief, you're not providing evidence, you're not making a case.
You're being distant. You appear to want me to state a belief, or make a case, or form a thought. You are doing nothing here. Hence - distant.

Io brought up a post which effectively started the bw on Phantom. I nullified Giga's auto-townread on Phantom due to an RVS vote, which I assumed eventually made Giga scumread Phantom. And I don't necessarily know if scum voted PC. I'm inclined to think that though atm.

When I asked you for the case, you expressly didn't have one.
Are you claiming now that there was a case?
If you think scum voted PC - who do you think is scum?

Okay sure dude, I've done nothing. Is me bringing up my thoughts on Rosske and Karnos's potential partners with reasons a bunch of nothing to you too?

Yes, because you just listed off some stuff, and drew no conclusions. If I hadn't have read it it would do nothing to change my understanding of your reads.

Also, are you so deep in the tunnel and so sold on me being scum that you can post 1680 without even considering Rosske being scum?

I have expressly considered Rosske as scum, and described why I currently town read him as recently as a page back when Transcend asked me to provide info I'd already stated in thread multiple times.
What evidence do you have that leads you to think I didn't consider Rosske for scum? There is nothing but evidence to the contrary.

@Thor

Hypothetically, I get lynched and I flip town. Does that make you scum for pushing a town slot so hard?

I'm 99% sure you'll say "No because...." so whatever reason you have, just apply that to me defending Karnos.

Let's change this up so it isn't a straw man.

Let's say I offer only three real reads in the game, one that I am town, one that a lurker was scum off no case beyond lurking who flipped town, and one that a player was town who later flipped scum. Would I be a valid lynch option?

The answer to that is a clear 'Yes'.

The answer to your question is 'No because...' - but your question does not reflect what I am calling you scum over, so me having a different answer there doesn't actually suggest that I am being hypocritical in any way at all.

Others

Tenshii - expressed in 1721 that he didn't see why Thor would be an obvious first shot. Also could have been an intentional avoidance of a shot against someone who went after him pre PC flip
Rosske - could have been an attempt to silence Io, could have been a shot by someone who just hasn't been particularly dialed into the game.

Why would Rosske want to "silence" Io?
Io was pushing a Rosske as town concept prior to his death.
That would be like Rosske wanting to silence me.

Haven't seen any votes since the last VC, despite 4 new pages of content.

@Mod - There haven't been - I would note that even in that case I would appreciate a new vote count reflecting no vote movement.

[Transcend]

Thor:

Opinion of MHSmith?

[Thor665]

Lean town.

[Transcend]

Hmm

[Thor665]

Indeed.

[Wingback]

Read up to the beginning of page 33 (the D1 lynch). Gigabyte is still my strongest townread. Have several leaning townreads.

Interactions-wise, given that there are only two scum, I doubt Thor would be so blatant about bussing since he would have to survive all the way to the end while also explaining why he's not dead yet each day from day four.

Transcend is probably town as well for how much he came across like he genuinely believed in Karnos being town to the point where his other reads were dependent on Karnos. I felt some of his twilight posts were a bit overblown (Post 680) but not unreasonable for someone who's been defending Karnos all along.

Tenshii is a leaning townread for similar reasons. He committed to tying himself to Karnos pretty hard and there was no hesitation in how he townread him (Post 176, Post 267, Post 300) and statements like "Karnos's posts are absolutely reasonable defenses" and "please don't lynch him" aren't things I can see scum being bold enough to say about a partner. I don't like his wall hackjob with Thor but given he was also posting content about other players, I think he's more likely than not, town.

I haven't seen anything strikingly alignment-indicative from mhsmith but the way he immediately jumped in and started scumhunting Luna Fox is I think slightly more likely to be town. I found his case on Karnos fairly null and could see it from either alignment.

A little background on Karnos - I've played with him once before (I was town and he was scum). He got a lot of pressure from several players D1 but I and another town player started townreading him once the wagon picked up and his posts started sounding genuine. My point is, Karnos has a unique playstyle that causes some people to hard-scumread him and others to hard-townread him. He can't make logical arguments as scum if his life depended on it but tends to look and sound genuine. People who look for the latter when scumhunting are the ones I see most likely to misread him while the ones who focus highly on logic tend to tunnel him. So, I can understand town players hard-pushing him and hard-defending him. Both seem reasonable to me based on what I know of Karnos.

Rosske is the only person I'm scumreading and this is partly a POE read. He never really commits to a stance either way on Karnos, and even when asked, he dodges the question. His contributions have been fairly minimal - mostly just annoyance/scumreading Transcend whenever the latter pushed him, and zero pro-active scumhunting of his own. He neither defended nor pushed Karnos which I can see from a newbie partner.

Going to skim through the rest of the game tonight but I'll start here:

VOTE: Rosske

[Transcend]

Read up to the beginning of page 33 (the D1 lynch). Gigabyte is still my strongest townread. Have several leaning townreads.

Interactions-wise, given that there are only two scum, I doubt Thor would be so blatant about bussing since he would have to survive all the way to the end while also explaining why he's not dead yet each day from day four.

Transcend is probably town as well for how much he came across like he genuinely believed in Karnos being town to the point where his other reads were dependent on Karnos. I felt some of his twilight posts were a bit overblown (Post 680) but not unreasonable for someone who's been defending Karnos all along.

Tenshii is a leaning townread for similar reasons. He committed to tying himself to Karnos pretty hard and there was no hesitation in how he townread him (Post 176, Post 267, Post 300) and statements like "Karnos's posts are absolutely reasonable defenses" and "please don't lynch him" aren't things I can see scum being bold enough to say about a partner. I don't like his wall hackjob with Thor but given he was also posting content about other players, I think he's more likely than not, town.

I haven't seen anything strikingly alignment-indicative from mhsmith but the way he immediately jumped in and started scumhunting Luna Fox is I think slightly more likely to be town. I found his case on Karnos fairly null and could see it from either alignment.

A little background on Karnos - I've played with him once before (I was town and he was scum). He got a lot of pressure from several players D1 but I and another town player started townreading him once the wagon picked up and his posts started sounding genuine. My point is, Karnos has a unique playstyle that causes some people to hard-scumread him and others to hard-townread him. He can't make logical arguments as scum if his life depended on it but tends to look and sound genuine. People who look for the latter when scumhunting are the ones I see most likely to misread him while the ones who focus highly on logic tend to tunnel him. So, I can understand town players hard-pushing him and hard-defending him. Both seem reasonable to me based on what I know of Karnos.

Rosske is the only person I'm scumreading and this is partly a POE read. He never really commits to a stance either way on Karnos, and even when asked, he dodges the question. His contributions have been fairly minimal - mostly just annoyance/scumreading Transcend whenever the latter pushed him, and zero pro-active scumhunting of his own. He neither defended nor pushed Karnos which I can see from a newbie partner.

Going to skim through the rest of the game tonight but I'll start here:

VOTE: Rosske

I love you, no homo.

[Wingback]

Still skimming the thread but Gigabyte, since you're pretty active elsewhere, I'd like to hear your thoughts on what I've posted so far and where you are at with your reads.