Newbie 1730 - To The North (Game Over)

[ironstove]

I think enefpe needs to hard claim today. I'll wait on his response.

[innocentvillager]

I don't think he does.

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 2.1

Decorating your meltdowns is all well and good, but a trainwreck is a trainwreck and it might be time to get a paramedic.

innocentvillager (1)

: Transcend

PenguinPower (1)

: karnos

Enefpe no Time (1)

: Joushi

Not Voting

: ironstove, PenguinPower, innocentvillager, Enefpe no Time

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-08-31 08:18:23)

[Transcend]

Well this

[Transcend]

My guess is we're in one of the setups with a roleblocker for mafia and scum blocked entsc action

Or ent is scum.

Heavily leaning towards scenario a.

[ironstove]

I don't think he does.

Can you explain why?

FMPOV, he claimed a PR already, at this point what benefit does it serve him or town to not hard claim his role? He could be mafia just lying about being a PR, and if he is caught fake-claiming we can lynch him today.

[ironstove]

Should probably put this out there

VOTE: Enefpe

Are you lynching enefpe because you believe he is scum lying about being a PR or for a different reason? If the first, how certain are you that he will flip scum from a scale of 1-10?

[PenguinPower]

My guess is we're in one of the setups with a roleblocker for mafia and scum blocked entsc action

Why? He hasn't even posted D2 yet, so what are you basing this on?

[PenguinPower]

Can you explain why?

FMPOV, he claimed a PR already, at this point what benefit does it serve him or town to not hard claim his role? He could be mafia just lying about being a PR, and if he is caught fake-claiming we can lynch him today.

Because, if he was telling the truth, it would help scum know exactly - or at least narrow it down to two - what setup we're in. That helps scum, but doesn't help town. If he's caught fake-claiming, the it outs a true PR which will almost certainly be NK'd.

Where did he claim a PR btw? I've been through his ISO, but I didn't see it.

[karnos]

My guess is we're in one of the setups with a roleblocker for mafia and scum blocked entsc action

Why? He hasn't even posted D2 yet, so what are you basing this on?

Actually I noticed some MAJOR flaw in Enefpe's previous claims and postings. If he doesn't come on and clarify shortly we should just lynch him.

[karnos]

VOTE: Enefpe

claim, and explain yourself.

[ironstove]

Because, if he was telling the truth, it would help scum know exactly - or at least narrow it down to two - what setup we're in. That helps scum, but doesn't help town. If he's caught fake-claiming, the it outs a true PR which will almost certainly be NK'd.

This just feels like extremely weak, almost forced reasoning. In what situation would scum knowing what setup they are in help them? I'm looking over the 3x3 matrix of roles and enefpe basically declared he was either doctor or tracker when he said that we're in the 'column C' setup.

What short of telling mafia whether he is doctor or tracker makes it a big difference? That they know the other PR is either bulletproof, tracker, or cop? Still not buying this reasoning as a good enough excuse to let him get away with the way he has played, so I am not relenting on pressure until he responds.

[ironstove]

Actually I noticed some MAJOR flaw in Enefpe's previous claims and postings. If he doesn't come on and clarify shortly we should just lynch him.

What was the major flaw?

[Joushi]

Because, if he was telling the truth, it would help scum know exactly - or at least narrow it down to two - what setup we're in. That helps scum, but doesn't help town. If he's caught fake-claiming, the it outs a true PR which will almost certainly be NK'd.

This just feels like extremely weak, almost forced reasoning. In what situation would scum knowing what setup they are in help them? I'm looking over the 3x3 matrix of roles and enefpe basically declared he was either doctor or tracker when he said that we're in the 'column C' setup.

What short of telling mafia whether he is doctor or tracker makes it a big difference? That they know the other PR is either bulletproof, tracker, or cop? Still not buying this reasoning as a good enough excuse to let him get away with the way he has played, so I am not relenting on pressure until he responds.

Knowing which setup we're in helps us a lot. Is there a roleblocker? Could cop safely claim without getting NKd? Does tracker have protection for their actions? Town also has drastically different winrates as well according to the wiki

Row 1: 56.0% (50 games)
Row 2: 56.8% (44 games)
Row 3: 41.3% (46 games)
Col A: 40.5% (37 games)
Col B: 51.1% (45 games)
Col C: 45.2% (42 games)

Unfortunately, he hasn't really helped us figure out what set up we're in. At best, he's told us that we're in one of 3 setups, and he could have just told scum exactly what setup we're in. It's really anti-town, especially because if he wasn't lying he has a huge target on his back now with no knowledge of whether he could even be protected or not.

I'll find quotes for the rest of my case against him in my next post when I have more time

[Joushi]

308 has most of the relevant links but 315 has some content too

426 and 451 have some content/rebuttals as well

Overall I'd say like an 8? If anyone is ever 100% confident about anyone else's alignment, they're cop or lying

[ironstove]

Not related to the game, but where did you find the page with the win rates? Can you give a link?

[Nerd Talk] I think it's very interesting that column A and row 3 both have such horrible win rates for town, the only common variable is the 1-shot BP, you'd think that it's lack of good PRs, but Row 1 (Jailer + VT) is almost identical, and arguably worse than Col A (Jailer + BP), yet the gap in win rate is ~15%. I'm hoping the page you link has more information on this.
[/Nerd Talk]

[Joushi]

There's a link to it in 2, there's a link to it here. The discussions which had more analysis of the setup can be found here and here

[innocentvillager]

My guess is we're in one of the setups with a roleblocker for mafia and scum blocked entsc action

Why? He hasn't even posted D2 yet, so what are you basing this on?

Actually I noticed some MAJOR flaw in Enefpe's previous claims and postings. If he doesn't come on and clarify shortly we should just lynch him.

I want to see this.

I just don't see scum motivation for Enefpe to lie.

Maybe someone out there wants to catch Enefpe in a bad claim to test if he's really the right PR; idk, I don't think it's worth it. Let him wifom the way through. I don't think scum knows nor needs to know Enefpe's claim.

Enefpe and ironstove are definitely my top two townreads rn. Penguin/Joushi also feel pretty town too.

Which would suggest karnos/Transcend, but that doesn't feel right either.

[Joushi]

Enefpe's claim to be PR was really weird in terms of a couple of things.

The tone was really off, and that's saying something considering how all over the place his tone has been throughout the game.

He has clearly stated multiple times a lack of respect for MS players, and probably would believe that such a simple ploy would work. It seems like it did in all honesty, so on that count it looks like he might've been right. He clearly feels he doesn't need to substantiate a claim if people will just believe it at face value.

Spoiler: Lack of respect quotes

His reaction to the wagon was a bit flaily but I think its a combination of being brainwashed by em theory and playing a newbie game with people who arent necessarily newbies.

The notion of rationality and evidence from ms players always amused me.

Some of the best players on MS are right-brained powehouses (say...faraday, fate), and know how the game works on a social level in a way that the left-brained players here (the majority imo) have a hard time conceiving. In many cases, there are much more subtle things going on than these players can imagine.

You know what, since most people on ms seem to be on the spectrum, im going to refrain from making jokes. Especially em related ones

Also is he actually V/LA again? He seemingly used it initially when he was MOST active...

[Xalxe]

Vote Count 2.2

History is written by the victors. And then forgotten by the victors. And then the victors die too.

Enefpe no Time (2)

: Joushi, karnos

innocentvillager (1)

: Transcend

Not Voting

: ironstove, PenguinPower, innocentvillager, Enefpe no Time

Deadline

: (expired on 2016-08-31 08:18:23)

Enefpe no Time is being prodded.

[karnos]

Actually I noticed some MAJOR flaw in Enefpe's previous claims and postings. If he doesn't come on and clarify shortly we should just lynch him.

What was the major flaw?

Well, it depends on his response. There is potentially one valid town response, but I'm obviously not going to tell him what it is so he can fake it if he is scum. I want to see his claim and whatever else he has to say about himself first.

[PenguinPower]

Actually I noticed some MAJOR flaw in Enefpe's previous claims and postings. If he doesn't come on and clarify shortly we should just lynch him.

This concerns me based on this type of statement's past use by you. What do you plan to do in the case that Enefpe gets replaced out...are you going to tell us what the major flaw was since his replacement likely won't be able to answer in the way you are trying to get Enefpe to?

[innocentvillager]

The tone was really off, and that's saying something considering how all over the place his tone has been throughout the game.

He has clearly stated multiple times a lack of respect for MS players, and probably would believe that such a simple ploy would work. It seems like it did in all honesty, so on that count it looks like he might've been right. He clearly feels he doesn't need to substantiate a claim if people will just believe it at face value.

Spoiler: Lack of respect quotes
In post 248, Enefpe no Time wrote:
His reaction to the wagon was a bit flaily but I think its a combination of being brainwashed by em theory and playing a newbie game with people who arent necessarily newbies.

In post 252, Enefpe no Time wrote:
The notion of rationality and evidence from ms players always amused me.

Some of the best players on MS are right-brained powehouses (say...faraday, fate), and know how the game works on a social level in a way that the left-brained players here (the majority imo) have a hard time conceiving. In many cases, there are much more subtle things going on than these players can imagine.

In post 348, Enefpe no Time wrote:
You know what, since most people on ms seem to be on the spectrum, im going to refrain from making jokes. Especially em related ones


Also is he actually V/LA again? He seemingly used it initially when he was MOST active...

Even if he is being a dick, that doesn't mean he's lying about the PR claim. I don't see how those two are connected.

I just don't want scum to know his role. He feels so genuinely obvtown that I don't see the merit in him claiming.

Plus, there is enough suspicion on him that he probably won't get NK'd tonight. If he survives to Day 3, then imo we can let him claim.

[Transcend]

I'm cop with a guilty on innocentvillager

not really but the guy is blatant scum and i want to get the vote of people who won't read this spoiler

[innocentvillager]

I'm cop with a guilty on innocentvillager

not really but the guy is blatant scum and i want to get the vote of people who won't read this spoiler

in case you didn't read the spoiler, Transcend is NOT actually claiming cop. Do not counterclaim him.

Transcend, why don't you do something useful and give an actual good case on me. Or find actual scum.