Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm still deciding between Rosske and Tenshii, but the place where I'm posting more frequently interests me more sadly :C

I like your most recent post and I feel like we're on the same page. I pretty much am townreading everyone but Rosske, but Thor's arguments against Tenshii are making me iffy about jumping back to Rosske's wagon.

I really have nothing else to add, sorry.

[Wingback]

Actually, going over the recent posts, I got a question for Transcend:

In Post 1699, you said that Rosske asking Karnos why his vote wasn't on Thor looked like he was pushing Thor as opposed to questioning Karnos's movements. But when he initially said this, you were scumreading Thor. How did you go from thinking "Rosske was trying to get Karnos to vote his buddy Thor" to "Rosske was signalling to his buddy Karnos to vote Thor?"

Also, disagree entirely that he wasn't questioning Karnos's movements. Given Post 430 where he says that explicitly. It seemed like Rosske was asking Karnos why he wasn't voting his top scumread. That doesn't necessitate that Rosske be voting Karnos's scumread because it's more an attempt to understand Karnos's thought process so calling it a "contradiction" is a pretty big stretch.

Going to unvote for now while I finish up.

UNVOTE:

[mhsmith0]

Why would Rosske want to "silence" Io?
Io was pushing a Rosske as town concept prior to his death.
That would be like Rosske wanting to silence me.

Yeah... Late night posting, got mixed up. The framework for rosske motive there would really just be to shoot a town read, or basically a result of not being dialed into the game. It's not impossible (likelier than some others), but seems like a weak case. Plan to skim a bit tonight but prob. won't have much to say until weekend.

[mhsmith0]

PC is the main lynch I want right now. Worst case scenario, non-contributing VI is lynched. Best case scenario, scum is lynched. Anything else, I'd have to reevaulate. I've kinda been debating on hopping on the Karnos bandwagon for the past few days, mainly cuz I do think that they plan on fighting to the death and they won't stop attacking each other until it happens, even to Day 2, 3, etc. So the sooner we can stop it the better.

@ Luna, can you explain your reads? All of them? Also how do you keep track of your reads? Do you just keep track of them in your head? Do you write them down on a notepad? Or what?

@ Io, who's Karnos's partner?

@ Thor, who's Karnos's partner?

I will say that if this a bus it's kinda weird. "Yeah I suppose I might possibly find may way onto that thing" is like not even slightly something that looks like doing it for the town credit. The flip side is it could be an empty post designed to make it look like tenshii was cool w a karnos lynch... but what's the point? Soft-pushing that a buddy lynch is acceptable... to reduce the association w karnos after a flip? If karnos flipped green this could be an opportunistic back off of a read in order to let the lynch happen, but he didn't.

And the hard defense on karnos at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8157836 is weird if a buddy too. That was l-1, karnos was always gonna die at that point (even if temporarily saved he'd always be a scum-spect), that's either the wifom machine, a wolf who doesn't care how bad that makes him look at first glance, or a townie who just honestly had a really bad read there.

Idk. I was thinking a re-read would make a tenshii case seem clearer but it doesn't really.

[Transcend]

Wing: You misinterpreted my post. I don't fos Rosske because he SIGNALED his partner to vote for Thor. That's a possibility that might've come out of what he did. But, I do fos him because the context of his post looks more like he forgot that he put a vote on KTS and was just blind tunneling Thor when he moved his vote around. People say he was questioning Karnos, I tend to disagree.

[Wingback]

He was right though that Karnos was pushing Thor without voting him. Why couldn't he have been probing Karnos to see whether Karnos's words match up with his vote?

[Transcend]

Hmm

Sometimes I don't read context correctly so maybe you're right.

But there's just something in the back of my mind that tells me no.

I'm tempted to dismiss that tell as null because it can come across either way.

Still, the rest of his actions this game, including votehopping KTS without much to say, and then him not logically backing any action he's done ping him as scum for me.

[Wingback]

You don't seem all that sure about him given you're also scumreading mhsmith and Thor as secondary lynches. Why those two?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

just had a thought

transcend, weren't you townreading kcdaspot? why was mhsmith different?

[tojam2]

VC Day 4 - 4

Transcend L-3 - Rosske
Rosske L-3 - Transcend
Tenshii L-3 - Thor665

tojam2 L-3 - Transcend
(expired on 2016-08-29 09:30:00)

[Transcend]

You don't seem all that sure about him given you're also scumreading mhsmith and Thor as secondary lynches. Why those two?

Thor was mostly based on d1, his vote was weird. Rest of his game is p. solid.

Mhsmith has towntold a bit, but his d1 was also weird and the way he voted karnos was weird, I can see a possible bus there. Plus he responded to KTS' flip in a weird way. Like he was an advocate for his lynch all day, KTS claims scum, mhsmith said that he was trolling. One final thing that concerns me about him, and this is recently, but he said that Rosske is in his wolf pool, but has made no conscious effort to lynch him and laughed off every attempt I've made to lynch him.

@Giga: I did tr the Kcda slot, mostly off of gut. His posting style didn't seem like that of scum, just annoying town. I had no like exact tells that made me solidly townread him. If I put a gun to my head, I'd still say his slot is town just because I think Rosske is last wolf.

PEDIT: LOL

[Thor665]

I will say that if this a bus it's kinda weird. "Yeah I suppose I might possibly find may way onto that thing" is like not even slightly something that looks like doing it for the town credit. The flip side is it could be an empty post designed to make it look like tenshii was cool w a karnos lynch... but what's the point? Soft-pushing that a buddy lynch is acceptable... to reduce the association w karnos after a flip? If karnos flipped green this could be an opportunistic back off of a read in order to let the lynch happen, but he didn't.

The thing is, it wasn't a bus, because Tenshii never opted to go for a bus or a vote on Karnos.

@Tenshii - do you bus or not bus as scum?

And the hard defense on karnos at http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8157836 is weird if a buddy too. That was l-1, karnos was always gonna die at that point (even if temporarily saved he'd always be a scum-spect), that's either the wifom machine, a wolf who doesn't care how bad that makes him look at first glance, or a townie who just honestly had a really bad read there.

I will agree that it is not particularly alignment telling at that stage, but I don't get the point you're trying to make - if the post isn't telling, why bring it up?

[Thor665]

Yeah... Late night posting, got mixed up. The framework for rosske motive there would really just be to shoot a town read, or basically a result of not being dialed into the game. It's not impossible (likelier than some others), but seems like a weak case. Plan to skim a bit tonight but prob. won't have much to say until weekend.

I'm just saying, of all the players in the game, Rosske probably had the least motive to shoot Io over one of the other generally accepted townreads.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Rosske, why do you think Io was killed?

[Tenshii]

VOTE: Thor665

-Saying I'm not getting involved even though I am getting involved.
-Not providing evidence even though I have.
-Townreads Rosske even though Thor has blatant problems with Rosske's play
-Scumreads me for not providing a case/evidence yet when Transcend blatantly refuses to give a case on Rosske, Thor just accepts it.
-His case on me is based off of flips and not the reason I defended/attacked said flips
-And if we add NK analysis, Thor being alive makes sense af.
-I think the main reason for Thor being townread is because of early D1 bus. If you guys think of Thor as a good player, Thor should be more than capable of bussing here.
-Karnos scumread Thor/Io D1. Karnos had a huge opportunity to put Thor at L-2 but FOR WHATEVER REASON, decided to stay on Io when Karnos was the only person voting Io.

[Wingback]

The reason I'm townreading Thor is not just that he was in the forefront of the Karnos push, it's that he established himself as the most pro-town player in the game by doing so. That's not a very smart strategy as scum in this setup since being too town since day one means you'll also have to explain why you didn't die N3, N4, or N5 over other less town looking players. For a player like Thor who seems to be able to shake off suspicion really well, it's actually better to be somewhere in the null-town range throughout the game not to mention the obvious leaving Karnos alive for a day or two makes a win more likely.

Curious to hear your thoughts on everyone else. Are you townreading everyone besides Thor?

[Wingback]

To be fair, I found it odd that Thor's contribution day one was to lock in on scum and tunnel him into oblivion. An uninformed townie would be more uncertain and willing to explore other possibilities I think.

But then again, given Thor's highly logical playstyle and Karnos's inability to make logical arguments, I could see that playstyle clash leading to Karnos getting scummier and scummier in Thor's eyes every time he posted.

[Tenshii]

Yeah that's kinda why I'm against NK analysis in the first place. Like if you wanted to go that deep, Did Thor not die because he's scum? Or because scum wants Thor to be suspected/mislynched for being alive? We dunno. I get what you mean when you say Thor should probably stay null-town-ish to avoid NK suspicion, and leaving scum!Karnos partner alive as long as possible, but straying away from this has it's own rewards too.

My only safe townreads are Giga and Luna/Wing. I suspect everyone else but Thor is my main scumread. I basically gave out most of my thoughts in that one post where I posted my thoughts on Rosske and Karnos.

[Transcend]

If it's tenshii vs thor I'm lynching thor

I still want to lynch Rosske

[Thor665]

-Townreads Rosske even though Thor has blatant problems with Rosske's play

I also have issues with Transcend's play.

-Scumreads me for not providing a case/evidence yet when Transcend blatantly refuses to give a case on Rosske, Thor just accepts it.

That's not actually why I said I scumread you - I would think you'd know this because you've asked me why I scumread you about four or five times by now.

[Thor665]

If it's tenshii vs thor I'm lynching thor

This is pretty solid evidence that town should lynch Tenshii

[Transcend]

Everyone has problems with my play

They just gonna have to deal

[Thor665]

Pretty sure we are 'dealing' big boy.
That said, anytime you want to start playing pro-town, i won't be sad

[Transcend]

Not changing my play style for anyone

[mhsmith0]

What's your read on trans thor? Sounds like you think he's super derpy town; do I have that correct or do you carry any suspicion on him?