Newbie 1730 - To The North (Game Over)

[Joushi]

Huh interesting coincidence about the names then! Good to know. Don't worry about if I don't understand the argument at first, I will always ask questions to make sure I understand the nuances

No I do not think he was the kind of person who would assume there are only 3 setups.

Naturally, the assumption you're trying to portray (oh of course I know I'm town) discludes the possibility of scum motivations, which I've already discussed elsewhere. The VT case I feel was already handled in such a way that it precludes the possibility of you actually being VT. I don't believe the PR claim, ergo, you must be scum.

The only reasons for a VT to claim PR so loosely like that are so dumb that I have a hard time believing anyone would do so.

As to where to focus, things I would recommend looking at are:
1: Skold's interactions with people (as he was NKd)
2: Enefpe's interactions since they will probably be really relevant D2
3: InnocentVillager's interactions with people as he seems to be the second most pressured person though I would argue for inane reasons

[Joushi]

Now do you guys see why EnT is town

Fuck off of Enomis plz

What? His arguments are weak at best

[ironstove]

Man, that explanation from enomis is so bad.

There is a possibility that if enefpe was claiming PR and column C, he only did so because he was hoping someone with an actual PR would CC and then he could target and kill them.

However, this is such a bad mafia play as well, I can't understand the reasoning behind it besides not caring about the game anymore.

For example if a jailkeeper or town cop are in the game mafia could hope that they try hard to push a lynch on enefpe in order to find who is softing a PR and target them for a NK. Any good PR would not hard claim and say something along the lines of 'hey this guy isn't a PR because I'm either cop/jailer keeper, he's so full of sh*t we need to lynch him'

Maifa would pay attention to who was pushing a lynch after the PR claim.

If you ISO skold's posts, you can see he still attempted to lynch enefpe after enefpe claimed PR and column C, this to me indicates that mafia believed skold was a PR which is why he was NK'd, this also explains why enefpe was not killed (I also indicated the possibility that there was a RB in the game for mafia, which is why enefpe was kept alive, so I was waiting to hear enomis' response before making my decision about this).

Yes, there is a chance enefpe is a PR, but enomis still refusing to hard claim when the majority of town are pushing for it and his reasoning (or lack of reasoning) on why hard claiming beyond implying he is either doctor or town tracker feel really flimsy. What possible gain does town have at this point to not know the actual PR? If mafia do have a RB, they will RB him again and he still won't provide us with any information if we keep him alive while they still target the other PR amongst town.

I am not hard-claiming until i am at L1 and someone intent to hammer. Here's why

Case 1:
I am vanilla townie. Me claiming now would not give any additional info.

Case 2:
I am PR and i have not made any significant check that i think will give town additional info. I also did not , jail keep , save anyone or shot by anyone who were significant last night since two town were killed.

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Also, i think enefpe action of soft-claiming PR actually pushes him more towards town than mafia,(If i look at it objectively and i will explain that in the next post.)

So your explanation for not hard claiming here is that you don't have any useful information, hence there is no reason to hard claim despite the fact that mafia already know you are a PR? This is just dumb. You're either a really, really, really bad mafia player, or you're mafia. I'll give your skills the benefit of the doubt and say that you're mafia.

VOTE: Enomis

[ironstove]

I also REALLY don't like how IV has been adamantly trying to defend enomis, that post was utter shit. There is nothing to defend there.

Also LOL @ enomis saying he is reading enefpe's play is more town than mafia and criticizing us all for not agreeing with it, he also did not make any comments on the interaction between himself and soula, and trying to provide any reads on the information that interaction had.

Obvious scum here in panic mode trying to get us to town read him and knows if he hard claims he will be royally screwed.

[ironstove]

IV has also ignored these two posts I made directly addressing him, IV please respond:

@Enefpe's replacement (If I'm not here) DO NOT CLAIM (especially if you are Diagonal PR, but also if you're protective).

Can you explain why not outing his PR claim is +EV for town? I agree with karnos' assessment that mafia most likely already know what the PR is, and hiding his PR at this point is more harmful to town than anything else.

Also IV, another question why does it matter if he's a diagonal ? I'm missing the significance of this detail.

[ironstove]

Am I misreading the setup? I thought there were 6 possible setups, not 9, where do you even get 9?

It says the setup is chosen based on 1 row or 1 column from the grid, so that's a possible of 6 different choices. It doesn't say anything about diagonals, and even if you do include a diagonal, that's only +2 more possible setups.

HOST/MOD: Can you please clarify how many possible setups we have in this game?

[innocentvillager]

Get off of Enomis now. I swear I will quit mafia for a year (and finish current games) if Enomis flips scum. There is no way that slot is scum. Please.

[innocentvillager]

Not PR claiming btw, I honestly am just very certain he is town.

[ironstove]

Not PR claiming btw, I honestly am just very certain he is town.

Why are you certain? You seem to have a strong town read on him, has enefpe made posts which you can highlight that are strong town-tells? I didn't see anything that made me read him one way or another strongly besides the PR claim.

Also, I'd like you to explain why hard claiming a PR at this point hurts town and helps mafia from your point of view because FMPOV it's +EV for town and neutral to mafia.

[ironstove]

IV can you go back and answer the questions I and Penguin asked you in the last two pages when you have a chance?

[enomis]

Hey iron stove. I have not read the game. I only isoed enfp. And read all the latest post since I joined. And my post is not utter shit. U just don't see my point.

Since you say that saying setup c is a bad mafia play, then it makes it less likely that enfp,/me is mafia? I seriously think enfp misunderstood the setup and thinks that there is only 3 setups. Why else does one says that we are in setup c when he isn't even sure??

How am I Royally screwed if I claim? Also there is advantage if I don't claim. If I am tracker and I don't claim, I can make the mafia waste a kill on me and I get an extra check if we are c. If I am doctor, I would want to pretend like I am tracker so the mafia will dodge me and kill someone else. I tot this was obvious? If we are in 2, if I am tracker, I would not want them to kill me. And if I am doctor, u may say I may be roleblocked to death. But what if the roleblocker is lynched?? The whole point of this is to make it hard for the scum to choose who to nightkill.

Now what if I claimed instead of waiting until when someone intent to hammer. If there are no counter claim, now what. U basically let the mafia narrow down one option and use their night kill better. If I claimed and u don't believe me, u will still lynch me. If you believe me then, u will believe me now. The difference is, I claim only when it is highly likely when I will be lynched which is helpful to town. How is it +eV for town? Can u explain it to me because I don't see it.

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To ironstove and jou tgt:

Do you seriously think one would try to say setup c when he isn't sure which setup he is in as mafia??!! What is the play here. Because u all do not believe that he misread the setup as 3 setup. There is no freaking play. How is this not towny??!!!.

Or u all think he try to wifom or some shit and since there's no way a mafia would do this, he do this so that we would put him as town.

Really??!!!

This is also why I do not want to claim. Because I think enfp is so towny and there is only advantage to me no claiming.

But you all seem not to agree. I really don't get why.

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I do not panic BTW. If I think not claiming is a mafia play here, I would have claimed and dragged one down with me.

My play as mafia is always to try and play as town. So, if I think this play is mafia favoured play, I would advocate against it and even bring it up on my own if nobody does.

Well, u may not believe me but u can check all my games as mafia. Well if u don't have the time to check, u have to take my word for it.

1---11

I am posting from my phone so it is quite hard to vet and rephrase and I realised I typed a freaking long and jumbled post. Haha. Sorry

[ironstove]

I already explained the play: The play is that if he claims setup C, and there is a jailer or cop in the game, they will sus his claim as PR and either try to counter his claim outright, or soft a claim by pushing a lynch on him, which is what Skold did, and skold is now dead while you're alive.

I'm not moving my lynch on you until you claim, and if it's -EV for town to do so then I guess that's the way it's going to be and you can thank enefpe for putting you in this situation.

[enomis]

That play is soooo... Improbable.
Him misunderstanding is more reasonable

That would put him more town. No?

Then I guess ur vote have to stay there. If 5 town want me to claim, they would have push me to do it. Now I only see u and jou posting after I posted. See if the others agree with me.

If the majority agree with me, u have to suck thumb and scum hunt instead of doing this.

[Joushi]

What is +/- EV? I'm only used to hearing that term in relation to Pokemon Effort Values but I really doubt that's the case here

The biggest problems I have with the claim are as follows:
A. I seriously doubt that a player who has as much experience as he does would misunderstand the setup in that way. I mean, the first sentence in the setup description is "Each Newbie Game will be given a setup that incorporates either one row or one column." That's pretty clear
B. He didn't say "my role is found in Setup C", he said "we are in Setup C". That's a degree of certainty you don't often see from town
C. After claiming PR, he is still alive and there was in fact a NK N1, so it wasn't because he was protected, it's because he wasn't targeted

Given A and B, there has to be a reason for him to make the claim in the way he did, which I believe has already been sufficiently explained. If it was truly a misunderstanding I would be more inclined to believe the arguments you make, but that's not an assumption I think is a valid one to make

[Joushi]

Somewhat related, but I'm fairly confident that IV and Enefpe are opposite alignments. I'm confident that IV is town, Enefpe is opposite, ergo Enefpe is scum

[Transcend]

Somewhat related, but I'm fairly confident that IV and Enefpe are opposite alignments. I'm confident that IV is town, Enefpe is opposite, ergo Enefpe is scum

u suck

[enomis]

I am delaying me reading the thread tmr. I have work to do and don't really have the motivation to read today. I will be here posting if u need me though.

And if you claim me not reading when i replace in is scummy, it's not. I tend not to read when i replace into games because i work better when i am conversing to find reads.(There are even people who called me out and i got lynched as town 2 times or more for this but i don't plan to change. Because i find it quite to formulate reads just readings 20pages of stuff). I plan to read this time though because i just came back from hiatus and thought it would be a good move. Just no motivation today.

+/- EV is +/- Expected value
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A: Do you read post often? Because i don't. And i already said I am pretty I had misunderstood the setup before, and it was not in my first mafia game. I am sure i am not the only one. The table is quite misleading if you don't read the sentences.

Also, how is he experienced? He is like playing a newbie game as a NEWBIE? Sure he may have played mafia somewhere else but this is his FIRST game here at MAFIASCUM with this new SETUP. If i can even make mistake as someone who played newbie game before, i really don't see how at all this is unlikely. Maybe i am resonating so much with this because i misread the setups before.

You need to get off the idea that him misreading is not very likely.

B. I already explained above. So saying we are in setup C is a degree of certainty you see from scum??

C. Now that you mention this, i thought of one possibility. Mafia is leaving enfp alive to make an easy lynch like this. Mafia probably didnt expect him to flake and me replacing in. Or because they are planning to roleblocked a soft-claimed PR all the way to the end and guess i will get lynched somewhere because i am not "NK-ed"


D. How am i opposite aligned with IV????? This relation is like so hard to find.
Firstly, I must have done something that if i was scum, i would not do to IV(my scum partner)
Secondly, IV must have done something that if he was scum, he would not do to me.(his scum partner)
Both the above points must be satisfied. If not, the relation you are finding is not stable.

And EVEN IF the relation holds true, it is very very speculative to use it to scum hunt. This relation is best used when one of us flipped. For example if i flipped scum, then this relation can help u clear IV as town.

IF NOT, this relation will be wrong most of the time. I am not even joking.

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P-edit:

@Trans

who maf. You think i am town?

[Transcend]

sure

maf are penguin/iv

thank you for your time

every other slot is obvious town and i'm okay losing to any of them if they flip scum.

[enomis]

Oh you were the guy saying IV having mood swings and other stuff being scummy. hmmm,, I will iso him briefly.

But why is penguin scum?

[enomis]

You think Jou is stubborn town?

[Transcend]

because the rest are town

yes jou's stubborn town imo

[Transcend]

enomis and penguin aren't scum together unless soula tactically replaced out due to scum wolf harassing her

[enomis]

In post 19, Joushi wrote:
I'm not sure how relevant it is, but I've started looking through some people's games history. Am I allowed to link these or no? I saw a discussion somewhere about referencing out of game stuff but I'm not sure where it is.

Town Joushi. Agree with IV.


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Also IV

, why did you not claim and your reason was some 5.5 days thingy.
Your reason should have been no one has claimed intent to hammer and not there are still 5.5days. 5.5 days is not a particularly long time and the town need time to switch votes and vote on another wagon and process the information.

Give me your thought process.

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@Jou

, what is it that you see in IV that makes him unaligned with me. The only thing i can see is that he wouldn't defend me that hard if we were scum buddies. Is that it?

[enomis]

why is iron town?

[karnos]

Get off of Enomis now. I swear I will quit mafia for a year (and finish current games) if Enomis flips scum. There is no way that slot is scum. Please.

Notice that this is

not

innocentvillager speaking with his IC cap on.

In other words, he could be lying here. I think there is a reason he is reading enomis differently from pretty much everyone else.