Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[iraonavp]

what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?

also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).

What? I didn't change my mind...

I usually try to read the thread when I replace in, but there are 90 pages here... I might read it, depends if I have time. I do look at context when I see something important while I'm reading the ISOs, though!

[mhsmith0]

I have no problem w that. Assuming karnos is town (which is not certain; his "lynch io tomorrow" twilight post is easy to make as a wolf regardless of io alignment), then we will be a step behind. Fortunately there are no nk's until n3.

Ps for the record, a good townie response by karnos would basically be to spam his reads and make sure he gives us as much info as he can. If he was simply being annoyed or something, it's explainable but not optimal. So it'd be nice if karnos spammed twilight w thoughts/reads, if he was town. It's really be nice if he was a wolf, though obviously I wouldn't expect it in that case.

This sounds like he knows that karnos is scum-aligned... If I was in that situation, I would not even consider that he could be lying, not make overly wordy explanation like he's uninformed.

It also looks like a bus from how he just moves from Luna Fox to karnos suddenly, then discredits his own read on Luna Fox. I think he was rushing to make sure that he was on the wagon.

1) Why would I need or want to rush in that situation? There wasn't a rapid push to lynch karnos; indeed, after the lynch Thor was complaining about how hard it was (in the context of questioning why people suddenly seemed sure of a red flip). In that position, if I'm the last wolf if anything I'd want to be careful to make sure my hop on looks real since bussing is a thing and people get suspicious of it.

2) Why do you find it non-credible that I simply took the time to re-read the thread in more detail and changed my mind after carefully going through the back and forth between thor, io, and karnos?

Fwiw I'd laugh my ass of post game if this whole back and forth was scum theater between two people who know a town flip is coming. Since I think odds are decent of karnos flipping red, not any kind of priority right now though.

This doesn't seem genuine opinion on someone who claimed that they were town-aligned, and he is contradicting himself here because he was assuming that karnos was town-aligned before... It doesn't even make sense to say this if he thinks karnos is scum-aligned. This post is the actual scum-aligned theater! The reasons he gives for why karnos is scum-aligned seem like confirmation bias and he has too much information.

A lot of the questions he asks, like 808 and 876, seem very leading and like he is afraid and walking on eggshells. Especially how he just writes a request and then puts a question mark at the end, very scum-aligned...

How is 808 leading? This was post karnos flip, Transcend was expressing a Rosske wolf read, and I asked him whether, now knowing that karnos was a goon, if the read still made sense given that knowledge.

Ditto 876? Gig said

How does it feel to be practically conftown to me?

and I was questioning it. What about that reads suspicious to you? Do you think I'm just making a posturing question? Trying to manipulate giga somehow? I read that as a fairly obvious request for more information about the read and what drove it; what pings you here?

because i know i'm not scum so i have to survive to prevent a mislynch?

how stupid can you be.

Except we have multiple mislynches we can afford before we lose. So while surviving is nice as town, it's not remotely necessary to win. As a wolf, on the other hand, survival is absolutely paramount. So if you're showing survivalistic tendencies, then yes that's suspicious. In this situation, it absolutely has to be.

This sounds like he is talking to someone he thinks is town-aligned.

How? I'm expressing suspicion of KTS, and explaining why I'm suspicious. How does it sound like I'm talking to someone that I know is town? (obviously if I'm a wolf I'd know he's town, if it's merely that I suspect that he's town that'd be town-indicative since if I was a wolf I'd know).

[mhsmith0]

what changed your mind on both me and tenshii?

also i'd suggest reading the thread at least once start to finish over the next few days; some players won't bother after subbing in (cough, cough, thor) but I think it's good practice to develop informed opinions. ISO's can give you a general sense of what a player is saying, but you'll pretty commonly miss context, especially for players who generally don't quote things they're responding to (as well as quick shot back and forth conversations).

What? I didn't change my mind...

I usually try to read the thread when I replace in, but there are 90 pages here... I might read it, depends if I have time. I do look at context when I see something important while I'm reading the ISOs, though!

Ah, so you meant that I'm your #1 and tenshii hopped over transcend for your #2? Is that correct?

[iraonavp]

Yes, that's what I mean...

I don't think you really care about the answers and just trying to disassemble anything said towards you.

[mhsmith0]

1) preventing my mislynch is playing to wincon
2) What makes you think that I don't actually care about the answers? That seems like an accusation with evidence behind it, but here you're just stating it.

[Transcend]

assuming sonia flips vt and not wolf

1. Ira (I've decided there's no way this slot is scum. Period. Including the replace out, including Wing's analysis, including the little bit ira has said.)
2. Tenshii (This is my best townread that isn't confirmed town.)
3. Giga
4. Thor
5. Mhsmith

T>S don't see myself lynching the top 3 ever.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i don't get how thor could possibly be scum here...

walk me through that... i would also like to know why iraon suspects you.

[Transcend]

like.... i don't scumread him. but i think if someone flips wolf and it's not smith, it's gonna be thor.

[tojam2]

VC 4 - 11

Tenshii L-2 - Thor665, gigabyteTroubadour
MariaR Lynched - MariaR, Transcend, mhsmith0, Tenshii

MariaR was a

Vanilla Townie

.

(expired on 2016-09-01 12:20:00)

[tojam2]

I won't be able to make it on at 1 o'clock today, so here's the lynch:

iraonavp was a

Vanilla Townie

.

(expired on 2016-09-15 08:00:00)

[Transcend]

VOTE: mhsmith0

I've reread the game exactly

3

times back to front skipping a few of the long posts.

I see no slot but this flipping wolf.

[Transcend]

front to back*

[Transcend]

Giga's lock town. He gets a W if he's wolf. That's all.

Thor vs. Tenshii reads heavily town vs. town. If I'm ever forced to lynch in that cross, I'm going with Thor.

MHSmith was sorta manipulative. The way he placed his votes this game have been somewhat awkward. It's gotta be mhsmith.

Feedback?

[Transcend]

Plus him knowing that KTS was gonna flip town when he scumclaimed was kinda scummy but I felt my case on Rosske was better so I sorta ignored that. I'm gonna build on that a bit more today I guess.

And then he discredits my read on Rosske but also had Rosske as a wolf candidate most of D4.

I can't be wrong this time.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I think NKA actually clears Tenshii and puts the suspicion around Mhsmith and Transcend. I'm leaning closer to Mhsmith, but I won't vote yet since that'll put him at L-1.

scum!Transcend can't push Tenshii on his own. He needs Me, Thor, and Mhsmith to get him lynched. Tenshii is scum!Transcend's easiest push too, because there isn't much suspicion around Thor and me, and if he wanted Mhsmith lynched he'd kill off Thor instead of Ira. This means that Ira and Io were pretty much status quo kills and we probably

shouldn't

stick to the status quo if that's true. Io didn't really show any interest in wagons besides Phantom's, and Ira wanted the same lynch as Transcend.

I think scum!Transcend is less likely because of this, because it's harder to indirectly push a wagon. It is scum!Transcend's safest bet, however.

scum!Thor is obvious, he really doesn't have any other options in kills.

I don't think scum!Tenshii makes this kill. It's practically suicide for him if he's scum at this point because Mhsmith, Thor, and I are most likely coming into this day voting for him. Not killing Thor would make sense for the first kill, but the second?

scum!Mhsmith wants to get rid of the person who suspects him the most, that's obvious too. My only question, which I will direct to

Transcend

, is why would Mhsmith kill Io?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

i can't really nka myself so if anyone wants to do that by all means

[Transcend]

dunno don't care

i'm not using nka this game.

[Thor665]

I'm so glad we lynched Rosske and didn't use meta. Meta is bad, after all.

@Giga - why do you see mhsmith as more likely than Transcend for final scum?

[Transcend]

I'm so glad we lynched Rosske and didn't use meta. Meta is bad, after all.

stfu meta is bad and that was a justified lynch. don't discredit it.

[Transcend]

"Oh this game parallels Rosske's game here when he's town. Therefore he's town this time too!!!" - you idiots

He flips town. Okay okay okay.

"Oh this game parallels karnos' game here when he's town. Therefore he's town this time too!!!" - me

He flips mafia.

Don't meta.

[Thor665]

What did he flip again?
Did he flip scum and I didn't notice?
Don't be daft - the case on him was silly.

[Thor665]

Like, I almost want to lynch you so this game feels less like a Newbie.

[mhsmith0]

I'll be back on this game sometime later today or tomorrow (probably today) with more detailed thoughts. Sorry for delay.

[mhsmith0]

wrt the NK, I'd once again say that's not who I would have likely killed because
1) it makes me look bad since Ira was pushing on me
2) Ira's case on me was mediocre, I'd already started pushing back on it, and I'd be comfortable pushing back harder on him today

Basically wrt NK motive:

Last wolf = giga
Lots of options. Ira is a nice suggestive kill, with the added bonus of being a strong town read. OTOH, enough players are solidly in the PoE that he might be inclined to SPK Thor and throw a wrench into the game state, especially since at some point he's going to have to explain why he's still alive, and a weird kill before F5 is easier to hide than a weird kill before F3.

Last wolf = Thor
Would likely avoid shooting tenshii because both in PoE and validates one side of the fight. Probably the only player who gives serious consideration to killing me, both because it locks in a town read of him and because he's the only player who's seen me do consistently well in late game scenarios as town before, including the game that just finished. Likely kills ira or giga, though, and I'm not sure he really has a strong preference one way or the other.

Last wolf = transcend
Shoots in ira/giga just about always, the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, tenshii}. Off the cuff I don't think he'd have a strong preference between ira/giga. Might lean ira just because it's a suggestive kill.

Last wolf = tenshii
Shoots in ira/giga just about always (likely prefers to avoid shooting thor, for the same reason thor wouldn't want to shoot him), and the path to victory is to lynch two out of {me, thor, transcend}. I could see tenshii preferring to shoot giga instead of ira just to hope ira keeps pushing on me, and then maybe even takes the heat for it in F3, but with two lynches left, could easily swap the ira/giga order and then coast on the resulting suspicion against me.

Last wolf = me
If it's me, I'd be somewhat pot-committed to not shooting thor (even though I'm SPK'ing him instead of Io just about always), and would probably need to run {tenshii, transcend} exactly with MAYBE getting some F3 paranoia on thor. I'd probably just shoot giga there instead of ira, but frankly I'd have at least thought about killing ira for the WIFOM. I'd have also thought about shooting Thor for the WIFOM/SPK (and a Thor NK would validate Thor's tenshii case as being sincere and make today a likely tenshii lynch), but in most worlds I'm just shooting giga first as a low-info kill of a town read, letting thor/tenshii lynch each other first and maybe getting transcend in the bargain somewhere.

Anyway, I'm going to do a re-read and then some VCA at some point. Since the VC's have been wacky I'll have to do manual vote counts first. MAYBE today but likely tomorrow.

[mhsmith0]

Thor vs. Tenshii reads heavily town vs. town. If I'm ever forced to lynch in that cross, I'm going with Thor.

Why does it read heavily as town v town, and why Thor if you have to pick one?