Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[Transcend]

thor is a big meanie >:(

i still feel justified.

i have openly welcomed rope around my neck since about D2. i'll still welcome it if you wanna policy lynch me, just don't fuck up LYLO.

imagine you guys being the town that blew 5 lynches and handed scum a game.

@smith

bc tenshii has been my tr all game. thor has not been my tr all game. i'm openly fine losing to Tenshii if he's bum-fucked me all game.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

@Giga - why do you see mhsmith as more likely than Transcend for final scum?

Something about Transcend's "screw what everyone else wants, I'm doing me!" attitude and his strange choice in pushes in the early game just ping me as very town. It probably wouldn't hurt, though, to look into Transcend's scumgames again because that could just be more of a personality thing.

[tojam2]

VC 5 - 1

mhsmith0 L-2 - Transcend

(expired on 2016-09-15 08:00:00)

[Thor665]

@Giga - why do you see mhsmith as more likely than Transcend for final scum?

Something about Transcend's "screw what everyone else wants, I'm doing me!" attitude and his strange choice in pushes in the early game just ping me as very town. It probably wouldn't hurt, though, to look into Transcend's scumgames again because that could just be more of a personality thing.

I would agree with that - have you read any of his scum games?

[Transcend]

He did a bit of an analysis of one of them, I don't know if he read the whole thing in its entirety since it was a long game thanks to Dunn and Zach filling the thread up with BS d1 lol.

[Thor665]

Okay...

[mhsmith0]

I'd skimmed that one. I do get the sense that it's different (I can dig a bit more for info), and frankly the fact that the person who knows Transcend best (Maria) seemed confident that he's town is I think indicative.

I'd also say that if it's Thor, then karnos played WAY better than it seemed on day one, because I don't see anything in karnos v thor that suggests scum theater there, and they talked to each other a LOT. IMO Thor is clear, giga is clear, and it's down to trans vs tenshii with it being tenshii very probably. If anyone wants to argue it's Thor, I want to know what in day one karnos v thor interactions looks fake. Because if you can't find anything, then I really struggle to see it as Thor. Like, Thor being alive is somewhat suspicious, sure, but I look at what KARNOS was posting and I simply can't see it as Thor unless there's evidence of karnos being capable of interacting a lot with a partner in thread and making it look good, where usually he basically ignores his partner(s).

[mhsmith0]

@trans: Like, just look at how often karnos is twisting what thor is saying, apparently trying to de-legitimize thor's argument/push. Does karnos do that to a wolf bro? Does anyone? Like, that's pretty advanced level play and incredibly difficult to get right. So either you think it's common (I disagree) or you think that karnos does this sort of play as a wolf (evidence required) or you think that karnos did NOT pull this off (evidence required). Otherwise the much more obvious conclusion is that karnos spewed Thor town.

[Tenshii]

@mhsmith0 In a world where you make it to 3p lylo with Trans and Giga, who do you vote?

[mhsmith0]

Probably trans. Of course in that world I'd guess one of them votes me first, and then it's either game over or I simply have to argue against the one who voted me.

[mhsmith0]

Why do you think that Thor would eat a bullet tonight when he hasn't the last two?

[Tenshii]

isn't the last two what?

[Tenshii]

oh nvm misread. and idk, im just going through all the possibilities in my head

[Tenshii]

Why save GIga > Trans?

[mhsmith0]

just the scale/nature of the interactions between giga and karnos; karnos really does seem to have a strong meta of ignoring his partners in thread, and he didn't seem to do that with giga. would certainly reread more carefully to be sure in that world, but it seems unlikely and I don't see the wolf case on giga. Are you thinking that there is a case there?

[mhsmith0]

Also, back on day one, it seemed like you were trying pretty hard to save karnos despite stating that he wasn't a town read of yours. What was driving that attempt?

[Tenshii]

Not atm at least. And I didn't agree with lynching him because iirc like the only info on him was the whole Io/Thor vs Karnos debate. I wanted more info.

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii: Also, on a totally different tack... let's say you are in fact the last wolf. Who would you have shot the last two nights and why?

[mhsmith0]

OK so what kind of "more info" were you looking for? His thoughts on other players? Multiple days of voting data? Something else?

[Tenshii]

@Tenshii: Also, on a totally different tack... let's say you are in fact the last wolf. Who would you have shot the last two nights and why?

I contemplated this actually when you guys brought up the NKA. I think that in a true optimal sense, it's better to rng or let your partner pick the nightkill so that you don't get attached to the nightkill, and it's easier for you to play the day from a townie perspective. Idk if I'd actually follow through with it because you could rng a bad slot kill, but it's something I would contemplate doing.

OK so what kind of "more info" were you looking for? His thoughts on other players? Multiple days of voting data? Something else?

Everything pretty much. He was only arguing with Io/Thor.

[Tenshii]

imagine you guys being the town that blew 5 lynches and handed scum a game.

Why do you bring this up? Especially in other posts that you make?

[mhsmith0]

wrt NK's, once you're all alone, you have to pick it, so you can't rely on a partner. Why would you say that RNG'ing is a good thing? You have the potential to make some very sub-optimal kills if you do (for instance, killing off a player who could get mislynched, such as rosske). What's the advantage of RNG'ing in a game like this?

wrt D1, karnos himself was primarily arguing with Io/Thor, but he'd also been a major center of attention, with opinion sharply divided on him. I guess the question is, if getting more info is important, who would have been a better info lynch? PC, who'd been extremely inactive, seems like just about the worst potential info lynch, and that's the main person you were pushing D1, and was your EOD vote as well. If info is in fact important, why would that justify PC over karnos?

[Tenshii]

I agreed with the sub-optimal thing. And the advantage of RNG is that YOU aren't making the kill, technically. So people can't necessarily paint a motive to the nightkill on you.

Potential info from Karnos > PC

[mhsmith0]

Actually I'd say that RNG itself is indicative of NK motive/process. Like, if I was the last wolf my options are constrained to town reads and strong players. The odds of my shooting a lurker inside the PoE like rosske is basically zero, because that gives up a very plausible mislynch. So if rosske had died, then the question becomes who'd have shot him, and it's basically down to people who don't have the experience to know what a good night shot is or someone who has a history of doing WIFOM type NK's.

Basically, if rosske had been shot N3, I'd have zeroed in on people who I figured didn't know what good night kills were, since htere was a tremendous cost to shooting there, both in terms of eliminating someone who was inside many peoples' PoE and in terms of eliminating someone who was NOT much of a thread presence.

PS in case you're curious,
http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post275864
is an interesting analysis of NK motive in the first game I ever played as wolf (N1 I shot the cop, D2 I got lynched, this came from 4v1 next to last day, crunkus was in fact the last wolf, got lynched in F3)

[mhsmith0]

I agreed with the sub-optimal thing. And the advantage of RNG is that YOU aren't making the kill, technically. So people can't necessarily paint a motive to the nightkill on you.

Potential info from Karnos > PC

OK then. But you said that info was a priority, so if that was the case, why did you want PC dead instead of karnos?