Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[Tenshii]

Pontential info...

[Tenshii]

AKA, getting info from PC was unlikely

[Tenshii]

BLANK. IS THERE REALLY NOT A WORLD WHERE THOR IS SCUM?

[mhsmith0]

I really struggle to see it. Like, if you want to argue that there's something specifically off about Thor in the days since karnos's lynch, I'm not sure I'd agree but I'd at least listen. But to make a convincing case, I think you'd need to overcome the fact that the karnos/thor interactions day one look VERY much not like scum theater, or figure out a way that I'm just wrong and it actually is theater.

[Tenshii]

Why is it not theater to you?

[mhsmith0]

AKA, getting info from PC was unlikely

So essentially the D1 perspective of wanting to lynch PC was based on the idea that he was never going to be productive, so we should lynch him and let the productive people be productive? Or more than that?

And I guess I'm curious, if PC was the person you most wanted lynched (based on that logic), why you'd post

@ Phantom, I'm willing to temporarily unvote you if you temporarily unvote Karnos.

was that a gambit? An attempted trap? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

Why is it not theater to you?

Well, among other things, theater usually has interactions that just look fake, staged or off in a meaningful way. Here...

1) Thor wasn't aggressively yelling at karnos or hard-pushing his lynch in a way that seemed staged in order to achieve maximum town credit for the bus

2) karnos discredits or misrepresents what thor is saying, see 139, 183, 210, 285, etc. Also 192 don't read like w/w either. Do they to you? If so why?

[mhsmith0]

Like, none of those posts from karnos read like he's talking to his partner. If they do to you, I'd really like to know what pings you there.

[Tenshii]

@Wing Did you not read the whole 300 post? And IMO my unvote negotiation was a pretty sick play. Making it that much harder for Karnos to get lynched is sick. That effectively made it 7/8 to lynch Karnos. Add that I (thought I) made scum basically voteless and boom! I made a sick play.

And I don't see why they couldn't be this way as w/w

[Thor665]

I'm mostly just debating if I was left alive to push through Tenshii, or if I was left alive because Tenshii figures they can't afford to kill me.
The latter option requires bad logic on Tenshii's part - but that doesn't really remove it from my slate.

@Transcend - I'm debating agreeing with you that Tenshii is town.
I may want to lynch you and mhsmith in any random order that amuses me.

Why do you think mhsmith makes sense as a scumbuddy to Karnos moreson than you? He kind of had a reasonably timely push on the slot whilst you never did.

[Thor665]

@Wing Did you not read the whole 300 post? And IMO my unvote negotiation was a pretty sick play. Making it that much harder for Karnos to get lynched is sick. That effectively made it 7/8 to lynch Karnos. Add that I (thought I) made scum basically voteless and boom! I made a sick play.

And I don't see why they couldn't be this way as w/w

Stuff like this suggests Tenshii lacks the ability to properly value call interactions, which could lead to a bad kill choice decision being made.

@Tenshii - why are you so game on the idea that maybe I'm a wolf but that Giga isn't - how can you clear Giga but suspect me? I could see suspecting us both, and I could see clearing us both, but the half in and half out thing makes the stance look screwy. Whassup?

[Tenshii]

Stuff like this suggests Tenshii lacks the ability to properly value call interactions, which could lead to a bad kill choice decision being made.

What's does the ability to properly value call interactions mean again? Lol

[Tenshii]

@Tenshii - why are you so game on the idea that maybe I'm a wolf but that Giga isn't - how can you clear Giga but suspect me? I could see suspecting us both, and I could see clearing us both, but the half in and half out thing makes the stance look screwy. Whassup?

Well yeah I'm paranoid about Giga too. But I'm more certain about Giga being town

[mhsmith0]

I'll probably look at days 2+ in the near future, but here's what I have from D1 (subbing in the names of players who where there EOD1)...

1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (4)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,


PC Wagon High Point

Thor665 (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (3)

Transcend , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,

killthestory (2)

mhsmith0 , Rosske ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Thoughts:
1.03 - dueling wagons

Thor665 (3)

killthestory , Rosske , Transcend

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (3)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt , Tenshii , Luna Fox ,


1.04 - KCDA pops in and votes KTS, tenshii pops in and votes PC

Thor665 (3)

Rosske , Transcend , killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (1)

karnos ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

Luna Fox ,

1.07

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (1)

mhsmith0 ,

Io (3)

karnos , killthestory , Rosske ,

karnos (4)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Lynch

Transcend (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

Io (2)

karnos , Rosske ,

karnos (6)

gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Io , Luna Fox , mhsmith0 , killthestory ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Thoughts:
1) It still remains strange that karnos just stuck to Io for as long as he did without hopping onto Thor. It’s even more surprising that there wasn’t a more concerted effort from a wolf bro of karnos to save karnos at 1.03 or 1.04. By the time we hit 1.07, there are a bunch of vanity 1-vote wagons that aren’t going anywhere, and then relatively soon after that you hit the lynch.

2) Speaking of 1.07, it’s surprising that there was no effort to hop on the Io wagon there from a buddy. Like, if it’s Transcend or Tenshii trying to save karnos, why not hop on the semi-popular counter-wagon? Obviously a hop there would potentially look suspicious, but once you hit the “openly trying to save karnos” point, it’s weird for there to be no strategic hop on.

3) It’s an awfully dedicated bus here if it’s giga. Like, there were plenty of times where they could have bailed onto some other wagon like Thor or PC or Io. I’d say similar for Thor but I’d think that if he was bussing (and he does insist that this never happens for him), that he’d realize that karnos was going to die regardless and avoid hopping off. IMO it’s the stuff from karnos that is more clearing on thor than thor’s work itself (though I think thor’s D1 was fine as well).

4) From the time where karnos becomes a wagon (Io’s 83 putting him on 3 votes), votes on slots other than karnos:
a. Io, thor, giga: 0
b. KCDA/me: 1 (on KTS, then I hopped to karnos)
c. Luna: 1 (on PC, then she hopped to karnos)
d. KTS: 3: Thor, Io, Thor, then karnos hammer
e. Rosske: 3: Thor, KTS, Io
f. Tenshii: PC, KCDA/me, PC
g. Trans: 6: Luna, Thor, PC, Rosske, Luna, Rossk
Looking at Tenshii/Trans, Trans’s votes, other than hopping on the Thor wagon, were almost always the first vote on a wagon (though his PC hop had come after Tenshii voted there then moved on). Tenshii’s votes were first on PC, first on my slot, then 2nd on PC.

5) Giga pushing against the PC case in 588 is just exceptional if they’re the last wolf dedicated to bussing there. That’s a point in time in which a PC case, while not popular, was at least viable; pushing against it helped to doom karnos is a pretty subtle way, more or less the opposite of “look at me! I’m bussing for town credit”. Thor goes along the same way not much later; I’m more comfortable thinking it’s plausible within his wolf range, but even there it seems like a pretty subtle nudge at that point in time that doesn’t really help him strategically in a board where a lot of people aren’t really reading that closely.

[mhsmith0]

@Tenshii - why are you so game on the idea that maybe I'm a wolf but that Giga isn't - how can you clear Giga but suspect me? I could see suspecting us both, and I could see clearing us both, but the half in and half out thing makes the stance look screwy. Whassup?

Well yeah I'm paranoid about Giga too. But I'm more certain about Giga being town

Talk through this a bit more? You're saying you're paranoid of Giga but I'm not really seeing that based on your posts. You recently asked me why protect giga over trans, but beyond that, I don't really seeing you question giga or post in ways that seem to indicate suspicion. In 1792 you stated giga and luna as your safe town reads and that you suspected everyone but them.

I guess my question here is, what makes you paranoid about giga? And if you are in fact paranoid of giga, why aren't you questioning them about whatever it is makes you paranoid?

[Tenshii]

I don't have much to justify it atm. I was planning on rereading at some point tho

[Tenshii]

O w8 yea, @Giga Does your read on me change just because of yesternight's nka

[mhsmith0]

I don't have much to justify it atm. I was planning on rereading at some point tho

Is there anything even semi-tangible at this point? Like a particular post, or a general sense of giga's approach being off somehow (too aggressive, too passive, something else)? The problem I'm having here is that the following just happened:

Thor: suspecting me but not giga doesn't make sense (2410)
Tenshii: oh I'm paranoid of giga too (2412)

Like, I'd agree that being paranoid of giga would be a valid defense against thor's push there, if in fact you were paranoid of giga (another valid defense would be to explain what makes thor much more suspicious than giga, but that wasn't how you chose to answer). But other than you saying that you're paranoid of giga, I see very little evidence of actual paranoia of giga. So what evidence do you have of actual paranoia of giga? Or is this just a vague "well I'm not 100% sure giga is town so there's a bit of paranoia there, even though it's not a priority to evaluate" thing?

[Transcend]

I am going into work right now. I see this thread has blown up. I promised to call my parents for lunch. I will respond to this when i get home.

[mhsmith0]

Replace the slot don't lynch him.

Alternatively: Lynch Rosske watch him flip red and then we don't need a replacement!

Everyone is happy, even the host!

This was an interesting note late in the day 3 PC lynch situation. It would have been super easy for wolf!transcend to hop on PC or even to just passively lurk or otherwise allow it to go through. Instead he keeps pushing on rosske. Semi-plausible strategic imitation of a town process, but I'm just skeptical that he'd act in that way as a wolf there.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

O w8 yea, @Giga Does your read on me change just because of yesternight's nka

Kind of? I don't really know you as a player but I feel like not killing Thor shot scum!you in the foot. Iraon feels like a status quo kill because the momentum seems to be swinging back to you which is why I'm not completely sure if I'm going to vote you today.

[Transcend]

Hi fire alarm going off like crazy at work. Might get sent home early. Stay tuned.

[Thor665]

@Tenshii - why are you so game on the idea that maybe I'm a wolf but that Giga isn't - how can you clear Giga but suspect me? I could see suspecting us both, and I could see clearing us both, but the half in and half out thing makes the stance look screwy. Whassup?

Well yeah I'm paranoid about Giga too. But I'm more certain about Giga being town

Well, obviously, you've voted me and not him.

But WHY?

That's what I asked you.
Apparently my actions can be a bus.
Why can't his?

[Transcend]

imagine you guys being the town that blew 5 lynches and handed scum a game.

Why do you bring this up? Especially in other posts that you make?

bored

I'm mostly just debating if I was left alive to push through Tenshii, or if I was left alive because Tenshii figures they can't afford to kill me.
The latter option requires bad logic on Tenshii's part - but that doesn't really remove it from my slate.

@Transcend - I'm debating agreeing with you that Tenshii is town.
I may want to lynch you and mhsmith in any random order that amuses me.

Why do you think mhsmith makes sense as a scumbuddy to Karnos moreson than you? He kind of had a reasonably timely push on the slot whilst you never did.

The reason mhsmith makes more sense is because I have my own POV and know I'm town. How am I supposed to answer that question?

Given that I hold the POV of no one being wolf but mhsmith after very careful rereads I think I'm okay with you lynching the two of us in any order.

I think that my flip will be helpful and you trust Tenshii because that is my dying townread so again, I'm openly welcome to rope on me.

I hate WIFOM but which one is more likely to be wolf in your books?

A. Someone who softvoted karnos
B. Someone who hard defended karnos

Most people psychologically would say answer B but karnos was clearly ailing and hard defending him like I did would mean that I'd have to survive 5 lynches with that attached to me. I don't know how I would've played this as wolf but personally, I feel like I would possibly softbus or ignore karnos if he was in deep shit as opposed to hard defending him. That was sincerely just an error on my behalf for using falsified meta hence why I've been reluctant to trust any meta this game, because it f***ed me day 1.

Now this is slight defense on me in hopes of seeing mhsmith lynched. Because I feel his flip ends the game. Obviously I'm comfortable with being lynched because I feel like you will trust my townread on Tenshii and lynch smith.

At this point Thor if you're wolf you've already won the game in my books. Same thing with Giga. I'm okay taking the loss if either of them flip wolf. I appreciate good scumplay and I try to learn from it to better my own scum game. If Tenshii flips wolf, which I heavily doubt, but if he does then I will feel really stupid and really bad.

[Transcend]

Also mhsmith it goes without saying, but thanks to you, I refer to the mafia as wolves occasionally. This is applicable for other mafia websites as well. >:)