Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[mhsmith0]

I'm mostly just debating if I was left alive to push through Tenshii, or if I was left alive because Tenshii figures they can't afford to kill me.
The latter option requires bad logic on Tenshii's part - but that doesn't really remove it from my slate.

@Transcend - I'm debating agreeing with you that Tenshii is town.
I may want to lynch you and mhsmith in any random order that amuses me.

Why do you think mhsmith makes sense as a scumbuddy to Karnos moreson than you? He kind of had a reasonably timely push on the slot whilst you never did.

So what makes you feel better about tenshii exactly?

[mhsmith0]

Now this is slight defense on me in hopes of seeing mhsmith lynched. Because I feel his flip ends the game. Obviously I'm comfortable with being lynched because I feel like you will trust my townread on Tenshii and lynch smith.

Why do you think Thor either will or should trust your town read on tenshii? So far you've been wrong on karnos and wrong on rosske, what I believe have been your two strongest reads of the game. you said you re-read the game three times (I believe you mean during the recent night period). What if anything stuck out to you from that time period? It seems that despite your stated re-read, your views on the board are largely frozen, and you seem to have no questions or thoughts that are new coming out from those re-reads.

Given that I'm going to flip green if lynched (though obviously you can't know that if you're also a villager), what are your thoughts on a world in which I'm town? You've basically announced that its ok if you die, which is obviously not something that'd be ok if you lynch me first and it becomes f3; in a world in which its you and let's say Thor and tenshii in the f3, what are your thoughts on that set? If nothing else it'd be nice to see you actively engaging and developing your reads on that front; surely at this point you have questions you'd like answered from either or both of them? To solidify your reads there if nothing else?

[Transcend]

Thor's scum if you're not and I'm gonna get creamed by him if you flip green.

Luckily after carefully reading you and your predecessor, their actions seem the most scum-motivated.

[mhsmith0]

Thor's scum if you're not and I'm gonna get creamed by him if you flip green.

Luckily after carefully reading you and your predecessor, their actions seem the most scum-motivated.

How would you get creamed by him? Tenshii seems to be leaning towards Thor in that world, and I'm sure that Thor wouldnt want to shoot anyone other than giga tonight unless he was confident he could pocket giga there.

That said, what's your Thor case? I don't currently buy it at all; IMO Thor and giga are super likely villagers, w tenshii most suspicious and probably you next in a world in which tenshii is actually town. Since your Thor case wouldnt matter at all if I'm a wolf, but will matter a LOT if I get lynched and we head to f3, it kinda behooves you to put your cards out on the table now instead of just going "oh well it's Thor and to hell with thinking about whether it might be tenshii" in the f3. If your Thor case is actually good, everyone else might listen. And if it's a crap case (which I'm guessing it will be), then maybe you might actually see the light and realize that your case sucks before losing the game for the town.

[tojam2]

VC 5 - 1

mhsmith0 L-2 - Transcend

(expired on 2016-09-15 08:00:00)

No new votes.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I kind of want Transcend and Tenshii to tell me their reads on each other and maybe give a little reasoning with it just one more time.

I know it's easy to dig through ISOs and see it there, but I just want to hear them both one more time. For posterity.

[mhsmith0]

Also wrt tenshii, one specific point of interest is that Thor leveled the accusation that tenshii's play has been defensive, inwardly focused, and only really energetic when defending himself and karnos (I can dig up the specific post tomorrow if you like). Do you think that this accusation is

1) accurate
2) alignment indicative

Because your super strong town read of tenshii implies that either you say no to one of these two things, or that you simply haven't bothered to consider the accusation. So rather than just stating that you have a strong town read, tell me why in your opinion that accusation is either false or unimportant. Or why tenshii's play overall has earned a strong town read. A presumption of bussing is a poor reason to make a strong town read. Obviously bussing is possible but it is by no means inevitable. There should be more substance to your read if you feel so strongly about it.

[mhsmith0]

Anyways giga, i agree with you that smith doesn't have the best chance of flipping mafia. But your top scum read is someone I'll lynch never. And mine is someone in your lynch pool but you don't wanna rope until they've caught up. It's fine, i get it. I think she's has plenty of time to reread but whatever. I know you're paranoid right now, but if you're not willing to lynch Maria, then smith is the way to go. I think his flip will be helpful should he flip town, and if he's not town the game just ends then and there.

By the way, how would my flip there have been helpful? You r stated that you have no intention of voting tenshii (or for that matter much interest in providing a substantive evaluation there), so what actual useful info would you have gotten from my green flip if I'd flipped yesterday?

[Transcend]

should your flip be green, it will or would have been helpful because you've given lots of insight, and if I know it's from a town perspective I can take it to heart. But right now I don't feel that's the case.

Giga he just reads newbtown. I'm rarely wrong about noobs being town. Key word rarely. As I've said before, his reactions and content all appear genuine to me and I don't think his intentions this game are scum-motivated.

[Thor665]

The reason mhsmith makes more sense is because I have my own POV and know I'm town. How am I supposed to answer that question?

With a reasoned case - there are enough people alive that going 'I'm town!' still doesn't qualify as a case.
You could, naturally, present evidence to show why you're town, as that is a way to maybe show that you're town and thus mhsmith is more likely scum.

I think that my flip will be helpful and you trust Tenshii because that is my dying townread so again, I'm openly welcome to rope on me.

So you're thinking your town reads are more accurate than your scumreads?

Most people psychologically would say answer B

Yeah, I'm one of them.

but karnos was clearly ailing and hard defending him like I did would mean that I'd have to survive 5 lynches with that attached to me. I don't know how I would've played this as wolf but personally, I feel like I would possibly softbus or ignore karnos if he was in deep Smurf as opposed to hard defending him. That was sincerely just an error on my behalf for using falsified meta hence why I've been reluctant to trust any meta this game, because it S***ed me day 1.

Well, first off, I'd note you using poor meta (which I disagreed with at the time and discussed with you) does not an anti-meta case make. Functionally we have had two meta debates in this game, and I was right both times. Maybe that is random chance, sure, or maybe you think meta sucks because you use it poorly.

Why do you think Karnos was "clearly ailing" my recollection is at the time you were defending him he didn't have too many votes on him. He had like three.
Isn't that the optimal time to defend a scumbuddy?

So what makes you feel better about tenshii exactly?

NKA.

[Transcend]

The reason mhsmith makes more sense is because I have my own POV and know I'm town. How am I supposed to answer that question?

With a reasoned case - there are enough people alive that going 'I'm town!' still doesn't qualify as a case.
You could, naturally, present evidence to show why you're town, as that is a way to maybe show that you're town and thus mhsmith is more likely scum.

I think that my flip will be helpful and you trust Tenshii because that is my dying townread so again, I'm openly welcome to rope on me.

So you're thinking your town reads are more accurate than your scumreads?

Most people psychologically would say answer B

Yeah, I'm one of them.

but karnos was clearly ailing and hard defending him like I did would mean that I'd have to survive 5 lynches with that attached to me. I don't know how I would've played this as wolf but personally, I feel like I would possibly softbus or ignore karnos if he was in deep Smurf as opposed to hard defending him. That was sincerely just an error on my behalf for using falsified meta hence why I've been reluctant to trust any meta this game, because it S***ed me day 1.

Well, first off, I'd note you using poor meta (which I disagreed with at the time and discussed with you) does not an anti-meta case make. Functionally we have had two meta debates in this game, and I was right both times. Maybe that is random chance, sure, or maybe you think meta sucks because you use it poorly.

Why do you think Karnos was "clearly ailing" my recollection is at the time you were defending him he didn't have too many votes on him. He had like three.
Isn't that the optimal time to defend a scumbuddy?

I don't care to make a case about why I'm town, probably because I got nothing. I've given my final thoughts for the game, I don't really care to expand more, and you have the choice of sheeping me or not. I have openly welcomed rope around my neck because I don't think my mind will change as I have reread the game 3 times and I'm pretty solid on where I stand. If I'm wrong about something I'll probably beat myself up over it a few times then move on from it. This game has been long and drawn out. I have 3 solid townreads and have openly accepted losing the game to any of them. I appreciate good scum play as I've said before. Ideally I get my lynch today because unless I screwed up one of my three townreads, the game ends. I think a few people feel the same way as me, so if he gets lynched, great. If not, great. I just don't care to fight that hard anymore.

I did strongarm two horrible things this game. One- protecting karnos whoops. Two- lynching Rosskeslot whoops. I felt justified about both of those but I was just flat out wrong. Do I regret my actions? Not really. Do I wanna recover from them? Yes. Will I fight super hard? Nah. I think I'm a fair policy lynch for being so wrong this game.

Yes my townreads tend to be more accurate than my scumreads. Mathematically it's more likely to be correct on a townread than a scumread.

Consider the following:

5 players and 1 wolf, flip a coin if you declare someone is town you're 75% to be right, 25% to be wrong. If you declare someone is scum, you're 25% to be right and 75% to be wrong.

Obviously odds can't be measured legitimately in this game.

Scum tend to try very hard sometimes and blend in very well, which I believe is the case with mhsmith0. He is trying very hard. I post reads lists a lot to rely on in the future course of the game. I'm rarely wrong about someone in my highest tier. Unfortunately this game was an example where I was wrong. But in Diffusion of Power, I had MURDERCAT and Persivul as solid town and never deviated from that once. Unfortunately I misread Ranger and gave karnos a W. In my most recent newbie game, ironstove was my only solid townread. Unfortunately, I misread Joushi and he took a crap on me all game. But I was never wrong about my best townreads in those games. I was wrong about karnos being town because I used bad meta. No one's perfect. However in terms of Tenshii, I doubt that's the case this time so I heavily feel you can trust me this time. It's not a meta based read either obviously.

To each is his own about the two people I labeled. I'm not gonna harass you for thinking my actions were more scummy than his, because in hindsight they were.

He was clearly ailing because I did try to fight the BW but you guys were relentless and didn't take what I had to say to heart.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'm not gonna harass you for thinking my actions were more scummy than his, because in hindsight they were.

why do you think you are scummy...? and scummier than tenshii at that?

[Transcend]

"well he protected karnos all day he's conf town"

is a less likely statement for someone to say than

"well he protected karnos all day he might be the other wolf"

[Transcend]

i don't think anyone is townier than tenshii btw

[Transcend]

Also in terms of mhsmith and his d1, the typical person would ~probably~ be more inclined to initially say.

"well he lynched mafia he's town"

over

"he bussed get him"

just how psychology works.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

"well he protected karnos all day he's conf town"

is a less likely statement for someone to say than

"well he protected karnos all day he might be the other wolf"

i don't think anyone is townier than tenshii btw

this feels contradictory... but not in a scum way

[Transcend]

what................

oh yeah tenshii protected karnos too. tenshii wasn't townread for protecting karnos on my behalf.

[Transcend]

Nothing changes my read on tenshii at all but i just reviewed his RQS thingie because admittedly when i reread the game 3 times i skipped all the RQS posts. Anyways, I read his experience level. I thought he was a flat out noob, just like I thought Joushi was a noob. It appears Tenshii has some experience so I can't read them in a noob light anymore. I got duped by Joushi but he wasn't anywhere near a solid townread like Tenshii is right now.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

I'd be really surprised if out of the people who didn't vote Karnops who are still alive today, Transcend was the last wolf. Taking a look at Mhsmith's vca again, Transcend vote hopping this much doesn't seem like strategically pushing whatever counterwagon works. The only way I can see it benefiting him as scum is for "wifom" factor ("Why, as scum, would I want to draw this much attention to myself?"). Otherwise, he pretty much gave up the chance to save his partner and i guess planned on going for a solo win.

Tenshii btw plays EM, we actually ran into each other a few times the other day (i don't play it normally but some people i pretend i don't associate with bugged me into playing), so that and his old account I guess is his experience.

[Transcend]

PLAY WITH ME YOU MOTHERFUCKER

i wanna rek u up

faster paced games are my specialty

[Transcend]

oops didn't mean to curse :PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP

[Thor665]

i don't think anyone is townier than tenshii btw

What the hell are you smoking to say this?

[Transcend]

oxygen i guess

[Thor665]

Like, objectively both Giga and I are both more likely to be town than Tenshii.
Tenshii has pushed a grand total of one lynch this game, on a lurker slot, for the case of lurking, that flipped town.
Tenshii hard defended scum.

What the hell is with you and these nonsense reads?

[Transcend]

maybe i have different ways of reading people than you do.