Open 646 - Semi Nightless - Game Over (D6)

[gigabyteTroubadour]

yeah 807 was not that terrible of a vote...

Wrt to the self-hammer declaration, it's pretty much a free mislynch for a scum!mhsmith because it doesn't really put too much attention onto you voting Maria over Tenshii, and it denies town from getting information from who decides to hammer (or if Tenshii gets hammered instead). Maybe not opportunistic, but I think it'd be the smarter move for scum to do.

[Transcend]

I said in a recent reads list I believe it was D4 twilight that Iraon was my best townread and it was only due to Luna's actions. And yes I'm aware this is the same slot that I was campaigning to lynch for the first two days. On top of Luna's r-o, Wing was disgustingly blatant town as well.

What happened to him being in the top tier on your reads with me >:(

[gigabyteTroubadour]

What happened to him being in the top tier on your reads with me >:(

is this for me?

[Transcend]

yeah

me and tenshii were str8 chillin' in the top tier of your reads list for a bit

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Tenshii being high in my earlier readlists was because of the fact that A: scumreading him would be due to pre-flip associations D1, B: I thought his posts about the dodgeball gag were kind of townie, especially with scummier people alive, and C: I have townread every single slot in this game except for Karnos's at some point.

Out of everyone alive, I think Tenshii is the most obviously scummy, but it's still plausible he's not scum.

[Transcend]

fair 'nuff

but the fact that he was a heavy townread at one point means nothing now over mhsmith who hasn't been super high on your townreads list?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Nope! Tenshii hasn't done anything to make me think he's town past D2, and looking back his D2 was still pretty scummy.

[Transcend]

:\

[mhsmith0]

Day Two Voting Data - key points

4v4

killthestory (4)

Rosske , mhsmith0 , gigabyteTroubadour , Luna Fox ,

Luna Fox (4)

killthestory , PhantomCobalt , Transcend , Tenshii ,

Not Voting (3)

Thor665 , Io ,

KTS to 5

killthestory (5)

Rosske , mhsmith0 , gigabyteTroubadour , Luna Fox , Tenshii ,

Luna Fox (3)

killthestory , PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (3)

Thor665 , Io ,

PC at 5

PhantomCobalt (5)

Io , killthestory , Tenshii , gigabyteTroubadour , Rosske ,

killthestory (2)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (2)

Thor665 ,

KTS 5

Transcend (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (2)

Io , Rosske ,

killthestory (5)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Tenshii ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (1)

KTS 4, tenshii hops off

Transcend (2)

killthestory , Rosske ,

gigabyteTroubadour (1)

Transcend ,

PhantomCobalt (2)

Io , Tenshii ,

killthestory (4)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 ,

Luna Fox (1)

PhantomCobalt ,

Not Voting (1)

KTS lynch

Transcend (1)

killthestory ,

PhantomCobalt (1)

Tenshii ,

killthestory (6)

mhsmith0 , Luna Fox , gigabyteTroubadour , Thor665 , Rosske , Io ,

Luna Fox (2)

PhantomCobalt , Transcend ,

Not Voting (1)

Thoughts/Questions:
1) Tenshii, your votes stand out as being generally bandwagony, as with a notable exception of when you hopped off the KTS wagon late in the day. What changed your mind between the KTS vote and switching to PC:

Spoiler:

I can get with 1298 and 1301. Also, we have like 3ish days left, idk how long that is for a forum game but I assume we should get a lynch relatively soon.
VOTE: KTS
L-1
Also lol at 1316

Never minddddd. Just ISO tojam real quick and you'll get what I mean. The deadline has been the exact same for the past how many vc posts now.
VOTE: PhantomCobalt

I look at the discussion in that sequence and I don't really see anything in there that would

Spoiler:

io and tenshii if youg uys could unvote i'd heavily consider a townbloc with you guys

If "we need a lynch" was your justification for hopping onto KTS in 1317, what made you change your mind and hop off him in 1377 onto a PC wagon that wasn't really going anywhere?



2) Thor, while I agree with the sentiments about tenshii you'd espoused on your KTS voting post

Spoiler:

VOTE: KillTheStory

I'm still serious about the question I asked that no one fielded.
Why is Tenshii a townread for peeps?
I got nothing there.
Slot feels super empty.
Whassup?

I'm curious why you were making that point at the same time as pushing KTS to L-2. Was this just a general request for clarification that happened to make it onto your vote post, or were you thinking Tenshii was as strong a suspect as KTS?

Also, you'd expressed at one point that you thought the last wolf was on KTS. Do you think this is meaningfully town-indicative of Transcend, since he's the only living player who was never on KTS? Or do you think that making a late hop off the KTS wagon is town-indicative for Tenshii, since he'd been on KTS for a while (among others) before hopping off onto PC late in the day?

3) One interesting thing I'm seeing from Transcend re-reading day 2 is no particularly obvious agenda; he's either doing a really good job as a wolf of imitating consistent preferences towards his stated lynch targets (and I don't even see him soft-pushing a KTS lynch when it would have been really easy to do that). If I was judging by day two alone, I'd say that he had the towniest day of the players alive. That said...

Spoiler:

i assume that's PC

leaning towards final scum being luna fox, rosske, or giga now. giga's been happy to lynch anyone honestly and it's alarming.

You talked about giga's vote hopping here (I think), but you'd been bouncing around a lot yourself, and Tenshii had been pretty open to hopping onto various wagons by then (bandwagoning votes on Luna in 979, KTS in 1068, PC in 1137). Why did giga's willingness to lynch whoever grab your attention but Tenshii's did not?

4) giga did some vote hopping here, but I think it seems pretty believable. That said,

Spoiler:

i go with the flow here

VOTE: PhantomCobalt

kts and i are tight, we bonded over twilight (he could still be scum but FINE)

Why did you make a "go with the flow" vote on PC there if KTS was your stronger read? And why would you say KTS and you "bonded over twilight" (and what did that mean exactly anyway), if you'd been hanging on his lynch and pushing there for quite a while previously?


PS Can everyone link their most recent one or two town and most recent one or two wolf games? If you don't have any before this (IIRC giga suggested they never randed wolf before, i don't know if tenshii has any off-site experience), just let me know.

[Transcend]

smith you just hosted my most recent town game

you know how that went down

not so great

[mhsmith0]

Don't disagree - are you voting Phantom right now? Because I feel like you're not, and then this comment looks weird.

Does me voting/not voting Phantom change anything I say?

yeah. that was part of why "transcend town reads tenshii strongly" is not something that makes me especially inclined to sheep you on. I'm more curious about your recent wolf games, as well as the wolf games of the other players.

[mhsmith0]

I've also played with town!Thor a bunch, but haven't seen wolf!Thor live (IIRC he had a wolf game with Zyf in Road to Rome recently, not sure if he had others recently or not)

[mhsmith0]

Also, as long as you're here...
(on day 2)

You talked about giga's vote hopping here (I think), but you'd been bouncing around a lot yourself, and Tenshii had been pretty open to hopping onto various wagons by then (bandwagoning votes on Luna in 979, KTS in 1068, PC in 1137). Why did giga's willingness to lynch whoever grab your attention but Tenshii's did not?

[Transcend]

in all honesty sonia was a universal townread that game so... meh

[mhsmith0]

Don't disagree - are you voting Phantom right now? Because I feel like you're not, and then this comment looks weird.

Does me voting/not voting Phantom change anything I say?

Day Three

LYNCH

Transcend (1)

Rosske ,

PhantomCobalt (5)

Io , Tenshii , Luna Fox , Thor665 , gigabyteTroubadour ,

Rosske (1)

Transcend ,

Not Voting (2)

mhsmith0 , PhantomCobalt ,

Thoughts:

1) This was a really short day. idk that there's much substance to VCA here.

2) Thor, in your L-1 PC vote you posted:

Well wanna vote Rosske then?

It wouldn't surprise me if he just gave up. His play has been so bad i get the feeling he's not even trying.

Rosske is on my short list.

Sure dude. It totally does. Like if I spend all of this time attacking somebody, and I don't have a vote on him, it totally changes what I say. What's your point in bringing it up anyways? Are you saying I'm scummy for doing it? If so, how and why?

I've said you're scummy for a few things - pushing someone without voting for them while calling them your top scum read is a prima facie scummy action.

Vote: Phantom Cobalt

Given that you were pushing Tenshii again here, and were clearly suspicious of him, why did you make a L-1 vote on PC? Why not start a new wagon on Tenshii, or push harder for answers, or hesitate to cast a critical vote on PC? Or was PC such a strong read of yours that you were more just engaging with just the possibility that it wasn't PC?

[mhsmith0]

wasn't just sonia though

Spoiler:

Yeah scum wins this wp. Vedith redeemed his shitty predecessor.

Two people in my never lynch list are scum. Fuck me.

Obviously that's a sample size of one, but it's the sort of thing that makes me think that your "never lynch" read here (tenshii) is at best null due to your read there, unless you've got a much stronger case on him being obv!town that I've missed. Like, if there are really obvious town signs that overcome the bandwagoning, internal focus, and day one efforts to defend karnos and find just about any possible counter-wagon, I'd be curious to know what they are.

IIRC you've more declared your town read of tenshii than really backed it up with substance. The primary substance posts were http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8303001, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8303026, and I feel like it's overall lacking in terms of justifying a town read there. Now, I'll grant you that I don't see flagrantly scummy or bullshitty votes from him (and if he's pretty new I might expect that to have happened at some point), but there has been an overall wind-blown nature to his voting that is I think pretty decently conforms to an approach some wolves take (fading to the background, not really taking ownership of lynches, etc).

So I guess what I want to know is, given that his behavior is (IMO) pretty consistent with a decent model of wolf behavior, what makes him clearly town enough to make up for that?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Why did you make a "go with the flow" vote on PC there if KTS was your stronger read? And why would you say KTS and you "bonded over twilight" (and what did that mean exactly anyway), if you'd been hanging on his lynch and pushing there for quite a while previously?

The simple answer to this is, "I wasn't sure of myself because I didn't want to trust my guttier reads that went against the grain." I had what I felt were weak reasons to townread KTS so I didn't think they were that valid after the quickhammer.

If you remember the D1 twilight, I made a word cloud out of KillTheStory's D1 ISO, which means that I was kind of forced to look into it a bit closely. I felt that some of his interactions were townier than not (by D1 standards, things like the reaction to the RQS, the sudden change in tone from his interactions with KCDAspot, refusal to explain his vote in 349... all seem like townier things that come from KTS, and he's kind of a hard player to read), but I didn't feel extremely confident in it.

By "we bonded" and "we're tight", I was saying that since I gave a lot more (internal) attention to my KTS townread than I did my Phantom one. Yeah, I pushed harder against Phantom's ML D1 because I don't really think the KTS wagon got that much momentum, but almost everyone had Phantom as a secondary scumread, but my townread of Phantom was pretty much "His RVS looked more VI than scum-motivated and lurker lynches are stupid." With KTS, there were at least some interactions I felt were townie.

I've been saying this a lot but my issue this game was having too many townreads and not giving myself much room to adapt or think critically about them post-D1. I also should trust my gut more often...

Yeah, I have no wolf games sadly that would be helpful for meta (I think buried on my sister's laptop is a chatlog for a Great Idea game where I won by coasting as a solo mafia goon by claiming miller D1 and no-killing every day? not really helpful tbh) ... which sucks because I play mafia more for scum than for town anyway

[Transcend]

i played em when giga has been scum

he sucks.

Spoiler:

not really he was fairly competent and rused me a few times

[mhsmith0]

i assume that's PC

leaning towards final scum being luna fox, rosske, or giga now. giga's been happy to lynch anyone honestly and it's alarming.

I mean, you're backing them with empty made up stuff - but I don't have to agree with the lie you tell yourself that stuff like that equates to backup evidence for a belief.

so basicaly you lost your scum read on KTS, but then his vote hop onto PC looked survivalistic, so you then figured he was the last wolf after all?

[mhsmith0]

i played em when giga has been scum

he sucks.

Spoiler:

not really he was fairly competent and rused me a few times

anything in particular that separates giga's town game from wolf game in your mind?

[Transcend]

don't think i ever sr'd kts?

[mhsmith0]

stupid board stuff and quote issues. that question about KTS was addressed to giga, but it attached other quotes to it.

[Transcend]

i played em when giga has been scum

he sucks.

Spoiler:

not really he was fairly competent and rused me a few times

anything in particular that separates giga's town game from wolf game in your mind?

more genuine. i only played about 5 games with him. we played Matrix 6 on EM.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

so basicaly you lost your scum read on KTS, but then his vote hop onto PC looked survivalistic, so you then figured he was the last wolf after all?

Pretty much, but there was a weak townread in the beginning, then it turned into a scumread, then back into a townread, then into a scumread. I think I even explained this to Transcend? I'll pull up the quote in a sec.

[mhsmith0]

so in your mind, giga strongly resembles their typical town game wrt being genuine? it's a bit hard to know what you mean wrt that descriptor; genuine wrt questions, interest in solving, not making BS votes/cases, something else?