Micro 634 - Wolf Hunt [Game Over!]


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Post Post #425 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:27 pm

Post by Ümläüt »

Votecount 3.2
Lycanfire (1)
- BlueBloodedToffee
[L-2]


Not Voting (4)
- mhsmith0, Ümläüt, LycanFire, ChaosOmega

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3 is Sunday, September 18th at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes

None!

________________________________________


In post 423, mhsmith0 wrote: 1) What do you think of the accountant night kill? I see it was discussed d2 but not for long.

2) What are your thoughts on the late developing wagon d1 on Carey and the final d2 wagon on joushi? In your joushi vote you discussed being wind blown as a scum tell but your l-1 vote itself was in the direction the wind was blowing.
I never really formed any useful thoughts on the Accountant NK beyond "That's weird." I guess if I wanted to do NKA I'd say look for someone who found Accountant threatening, but if I recall correctly I'm the only unusual scumread he had, so that doesn't really work for me. (Alternately I could delve into WIFOM hell and say I was being set up, but this awards me more importance than I think I actually have.)

It's precisely because the Carey wagon d1 developed so late (and I don't think anyone was really more than 50% sure it would flip scum) that I'm working on the assumption scum is probably off the wagon. I'm assuming I'm typical in not having realized the game was plurality lynch, in which case Mafia wouldn't expect the wagon to reach majority (which in fact it didn't) and wouldn't have any reason to be on it. The Carey wagon was kind of a compromise overall. This is why you are my prime suspect with Joushi gone.

Re. the Joushi wagon, I can't really complain, even after seeing the flip, except that the quickhammer was totally unnecessary (but maybe Tier was hoping to avoid the NK?). I would have been equally happy with you or Joushi yesterday, purely based on the Carey wagon. I still think saying "My scumreads are Tier, Umlaut, BBT, Lycan, and pist" is suspicious and I would vote someone again on the same reasoning, especially if they're in a lynchpool of two.

It would have been nice if we'd gotten more conversation yesterday, but realistically we all would have just lurkaderped for another five days and then lynched Joushi anyway. I haven't had much success in getting people to answer my questions this game.
Last edited by SnarkySnowman on Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #426 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:16 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

@Lycan:
Spoiler:
In post 128, Lycanfire wrote:Going for Accountant now looks good. It was a vote on an inactive but for a reason. The Accountant wagon went to a standstill and we had 3 inactives. If Accountant is scum, scum are bound to not support his lynch. If Accountant is town they should be piling on him. I elimmed Pista and Chaos because they weren't as interesting regardless of Accountant's alignment.

VOTE: Lowell
In post 300, Lycanfire wrote:
Votecount 1.13
Lowell (4)
- LycanFire, CareyHammer, Umlaut, Accountant
[L-1]

Tiershift (2)
- pistachi0n, BlueBloodedToffee
[L-3]

CareyHammer (2)
- ChaosOmega, Tiershift
[L-3]

Umlaut (1)
- Lowell
[L-4]


Not Voting (0)
-
Nobody!


With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is Tuesday, August 23rd at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes

None!

________________________________________


There's scum between Carey, Accountant and Lowell. That's pretty much the justification for my Lowell vote that and, his interaction with BBT/#125 ("yes! accountant is a great lynch/s" incredibly paraphrased) meant I wanted to see how Accountant would react to this / how Lowell would continue to approach the Accountant wagon. Nothing happened because Pista apparently made the grievous mistake of voting the person that townread him and had Tiershift, Accountant, Chaos, and BBT form a wagon on him instead.

Carey/Accountant interactions are dreadful, from Accountant buddying him early to sheeping his vote from page 5 to now. It might be S+T interactions, simply because Carey doesn't contribute and it isn't fishy if Accountant were to try to buddy up with someone seemingly inconspicuous. Accountant did this with Tiershift as well, but I don't believe they are a team, if anything the pista wagon was a mechanism to spoil VCA. Basically I think Accountant looks good with either of them,
because Chaos is town
-

#38 he wants to know my vote is now on a useless slot by my own admission. then he slams mick for not posting outside rvs vote. he wants the game to move along.
#51+108 pushing his read
#144 presses two of my scumreads. not to say the interactions were subtle but i'm happy with anyone that shares dislike
#203
#205+207 presses accountant again

VOTE: Accountant
Happy with Accountant/Carey lynches. I'm interested in Lowell's replacement tomorrow.


Can you talk more about why you were town reading chaos so strongly at that point? It seems like it's a meaningful driver of the rest of your D1 reads, at least wrt your push on accountant/carey from then to the end of the day, but the only thing I really saw supporting that read was 128, which didn't seem like much. What had you seen to drive such a seemingly strong/important read at that point?
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BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
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Post Post #427 (ISO) » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:22 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 302, Accountant wrote:Lynch lycan

I don't like how he says I'm scum and chaos is town
In post 321, Accountant wrote:
In post 320, pistachi0n wrote:
In post 316, Ümläüt wrote:
In post 315, pistachi0n wrote:i still hope you get lynched (but am willing to switch last minute to avoid a no lynch)
Okay, if not Tier then who's the next best? He's the only one you've really talked about.
Probably Chaos
This guy knows whats up
btw these were accountant's last stated positions. between accountant's push on lycan and lycan's stated read of accountant/carey as v/w, there's pretty decent N1 kill motive there (theoretically there is from chaos too, but that seems less likely unless you think that a hard bus was going on D1). It's possibly WIFOM, but at the same time it's a strange kill just for WIFOM since he'd been suspected and was off wagon.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #428 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:28 am

Post by Lycanfire »

I wanted to get people to react to Accountant's wagon. Chaos was sheeping me on Conmanmick and I wanted to see if he would keep doing that. Going for pistachi0n would have distracted Tiershift from Accountant. I liked my vote landing on Lowell the most because he said he was getting newb vibes from Accountant... Accountant was the IC in my first game on this site, so I knew he wasn't a newb. When BBT showed up and voted Accountant Lowell appeared happy by it. In all it seemed like distancing.

Beyond the reasons I stated in that post you don't see why I would townread Chaos so hard?
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Post Post #429 (ISO) » Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:06 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

@lycan:
lycanfire wrote: ...
#38 he wants to know my vote is now on a useless slot by my own admission. then he slams mick for not posting outside rvs vote. he wants the game to move along.
#51+108 pushing his read
#144 presses two of my scumreads. not to say the interactions were subtle but i'm happy with anyone that shares dislike
#203
#205+207 presses accountant again
In post 428, Lycanfire wrote:I wanted to get people to react to Accountant's wagon. Chaos was sheeping me on Conmanmick and I wanted to see if he would keep doing that. Going for pistachi0n would have distracted Tiershift from Accountant. I liked my vote landing on Lowell the most because he said he was getting newb vibes from Accountant... Accountant was the IC in my first game on this site, so I knew he wasn't a newb. When BBT showed up and voted Accountant Lowell appeared happy by it. In all it seemed like distancing.

Beyond the reasons I stated in that post you don't see why I would townread Chaos so hard?
1) The list of stuff is enough substance for a town lean perhaps, but it seemed like you used that to develop a strong town read that then informed your other reads. That's kind of under-supported for what seems to be as strong of a read as you've indicated. Especially given accountant's reasonable response
In post 204, Accountant wrote:
asking questions isn't content, imo, unless you're going to show town the thought process of you analyzing the question answers
gonna repeat this shit

i'd much rather you show me what you did with the answers from your last round of questions
and the resulting back and forth. Chaos comes out of it not terribly, but I don't see the strong town read from it; accountant's point that chaos wasn't really doing anything was reasonable at that stage of the game. You TR chaos for asking questions, without seeming to be worried about whether or not he's actually doing anything useful with the questions.

Also, what do you mean by "not to say the interactions were subtle"?

2) Speaking of (cited in Chaos's ), did you ever get around to explaining what pissed you off about the pist wagon? I don't see an answer from you; please point me to it if I missed it. Saying that you liked the questions he asked in 203, without actually answering the question addressed to you, is strange.

3) What made you change your vote to Carey instead of pushing for an Accountant lynch in ? Just the fact that it was inside your two preferences and the larger wagon, or something more than that?

4)
In post 337, Lycanfire wrote:I'm inclined to believe that scum were on the wagon. Since I was going to vote him too I had another look at him and I don't see a post that hints PR. Either scum thought they read something, they feel personally threatened by Accountant, or they didn't want to draw attention to the wagon.
Do you still believe this? If so, who would be the wolf on the wagon? Tier is dead, and chaos/umlaut are the other two carey voters. Which of them do you think could have been bussing?

5) Do you have a scum game completed I can look at? I've look at your data and it seems like your completed games are all town flips.
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Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #430 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:55 am

Post by ChaosOmega »

VOTE: mhsmith0
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Post Post #431 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 3:00 am

Post by Ümläüt »

I'm actually really liking what MH is doing right now. Not sure what I should do with that since my prior for "scum is off the Carey wagon" was pretty high and I don't want to weight newer evidence unduly more than older, but I'm not ready to vote him just now.

Maybe I'll reread pist or something.
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Post Post #432 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 5:58 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

What drove your prior on why the last wolf was off Carey? With Carey at L-2 and leading wagon (from your vote), I'd say that the temptation to be on the wagon of a wolf likely going down anyway would have been substantial for a buddy who wasn't already on. Along the same lines, what do you think of
In post 324, Lycanfire wrote:VOTE: CareyHammer

BBT: why TierShift.
and the lack of follow-through after that? Absence at EOD is possibly explainable (especially given that others were out as well) but it seems weird to cast a vote to lock in a lynch while expressing curiosity about BBT's position on Tier, and then just walk away without further comment. Like, not even 20 minutes later, BBT is shouting about the Carey wagon being ugly; it's kind of weird not to engage with that comment given the stated curiosity about BBT's TierShift vote.

PS does anyone here have prior experience with lycan? I've skimmed some of its previous games (I think they're all town on this site), and have seen what look to be substantial differences compared to its normal town meta, but am curious if anyone has read any of them (I don't think any of you were on any of the player lists unless I missed something or there was an alt, but idk if anyone here spectated any of them or happened to go back and reread)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #433 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:45 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I think we need to lynch Lycan.
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Post Post #434 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:57 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

probably. want to hear back from Lycan first.
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BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #435 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:59 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Like, I think lynching Lycan/Chaos wins the game so I'm not too fussed how we go about it.
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Post Post #436 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:00 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

how sure are you that it isn't umlaut? Becuase I'm pretty sure it's not umlaut, but it seems likely that chaos is going to snap vote me in LYLO if it comes to that, which means that if it's umlaut he wins (I'm presuming you're dead in this hypothetical)
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #437 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:01 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

By the way, I know how much you enjoy meta, but this is what I've seen from Lycan so far:

Open 651 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
makes posts like
Spoiler:
In post 90, Lycanfire wrote:Please stop getting so defensive, Vedith! Two votes and you're death flailing already!
In post 91, Lycanfire wrote:He's got a weapon!
Daykill: Vedith
In post 102, Lycanfire wrote:game solved i'm going to sleep
In post 149, Lycanfire wrote:Bastion if you like confidence you should vote light_ganski with me.
In post 267, Lycanfire wrote:told you that the game was solved
In post 386, Lycanfire wrote:can we take a moment to appreciate the fact we have two people that can't bother to put their votes down with people at L-4.
In post 379, Sir Bastion wrote:I am going to have to be unpopular and say he's town and I will oppose any move to lynch him today.
you can follow him to hell after flip.
In post 433, Lycanfire wrote:but if i'm such a good lynch and a scumfucker why are you ignoring your gut read and sheeping njac's wagon?
In post 434, Lycanfire wrote:is it because you have no incentive to solve the game?
In post 656, Lycanfire wrote:do you hate my pr claim that much ironstove? i'm glad to hear it!! if only someone could do something about that and autowin game huh :left: :left: :left: :left:


plus try-hard posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8228292
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p8242675
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8277500
etc

Newbie 1718 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

makes posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8086941
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p8110308
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8110322
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p8117906
etc.


plus try-hard posts like
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 2#p8090282
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p8097503
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p8097520
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8129604
etc.

Newbie 1717 - Town
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
more of the same


Overall town meta: emotional, high energy, asks pointed questions, occasionally shows high amounts of effort in sorting people.

This game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p8307240 until I subbed in, he had asked not a single question so far. not one, all game, until his response to me in , and even that is a self-focused question. Low emotion (states that he's pissed off, but doesn't show it in his posts), is low energy with a general lack of game-solving. His ISO here is boring when his town game is pretty consistently anything but.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #438 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:03 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I mean, I never use meta but obviously you have put some effort into that.

I'm fairly certain Umlaut is town, like 98%. I'm like 79% sure that Lycan is scum and would much prefer to lynch him before Chaos.

I think lynching Lycan wins us the game.
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Post Post #439 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:27 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

k
VOTE: lycan

FWIW, I'd be pretty surprised if it was umlaut as well, casting that key vote in that high leverage spot seems unlikely as last wolf, plus he overall seems villagery (game-solvey, free tone, etc). Chaos would surprise me a lot too, but it's not impossible that they did distancing hoping to avoid a D1 lynch and it just went wrong or something.

PS If the last wolf is BBT and Tier fucked up his peek discussion I'm going to be super salty post game. I don't think it is BBT though, he seems reasonably villagery, more of a push to what he's doing than our last game together.

PPS I like using meta best when dealing with people who aren't actually good at manipulating their metas. People who are really good as wolves are harder to read that way. But shape, tone, energy, where people are pushing, etc. tend to be different as town than wolf.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #440 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:28 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

actually [unv][/unv]
still want to hear from lycan first. But definitely FOS that way.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #441 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:28 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

UNVOTE: stupid vote tags
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #442 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:31 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

I think you should leave your vote on.

Lycan should be returning and realising he is under serious pressure.
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Post Post #443 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 8:38 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

fine. it's probably lycan anyway.
VOTE: lycan
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #444 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 9:52 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

Yes yes all very good. My point was that you should know that by spectating Open 651 that I take a theory, crank up confbias and make scum think I'm insane. Your meta read of me doesn't account for how I often scumhunt by association, and I have a 0% winrate despite calling nearly all scum in every one of my games (raskolnikov is apparently too good). I'll do this to a fault too, as I cleared a mafiaso I was tunneling in my first game on this site because they were hard bussing their partner by pinning them on me, despite never committing to the alleged bus I was totally for. Worth noting that Accountant got lynched instead that game and the game was lost to a series of speedlynches thereafter. Newbie 1718 was a successful case, but I was puzzled by my strongest scumread and because of my scumread #2 pushing a strange NK, I left my read of scumread #1 in the hands of a power-posting townie, and I told her before L-1 that if we were to no lynch instead, she would die and I would push my original theory instead, because I thought my scumread #1 was refusing to work with me. Could have been a win there.

Now for Open 651. I played an atrocious game and tried to be as laser-sighted and obnoxious as possible. I made a scumteam and damned everything if it meant I could push it. Everyone was town. Everyone I defended was scum. I managed to piss off just about every townie and had one force-replaced (well, Lilith did it by the time I noticed I was going to post for Lilith to do as she pleased). I had some good reasons to do this, because I wanted to see who would take my threats of vig killing seriously let alone if I was believed. What I didn't account for was scum rolecopping me making that all pointless. To scum my reads were set in stone and Sir_Bastion decided he was safe to kick me away from Kyndy, but in doing so he contradicted what he previously posted about townie behavior. I ran with Genji/Bastion/Kyndy and lost the game, because due to the wagon on Genji this was one of three viable teams, and he did not want to find the mafiaso on him that was either Raskolnikov or Superbowl. I previously eliminated superbowl+kyndy, rask was a blindspot, even though I flat out said her day 2 was bad, I should have never assumed Genji was giving up without poking at her at least once.

So when I asked
why
do you think I townread Chaos so hard I asked this knowing that you were a spectator of Open651 and already knew part of my meta.
Also, what do you mean by "not to say the interactions were subtle"?
Accountant flat out said Carey was town.
2) Speaking of 156 (cited in Chaos's 203), did you ever get around to explaining what pissed you off about the pist wagon? I don't see an answer from you; please point me to it if I missed it. Saying that you liked the questions he asked in 203, without actually answering the question addressed to you, is strange.
I thought it was a joke because nobody was sheeping me, Chaos in particular. My reaction was clear that I disliked a pistachi0n wagon because it was going to do nothing for an Accountant one as I just previously wagoned Conmanmick/BBT and tried to rev one up on Lowell/Joushi.
3) What made you change your vote to Carey instead of pushing for an Accountant lynch in 324? Just the fact that it was inside your two preferences and the larger wagon, or something more than that?
I thought Accountant was giving up in post #318 and handing us Carey. In my mind it was Accountant+Carey Accountant+Lowell Carey+other.
Do you still believe this? If so, who would be the wolf on the wagon? Tier is dead, and chaos/umlaut are the other two carey voters. Which of them do you think could have been bussing?
No I don't believe this. I came to the idea that it's possible that scum wanted to distract from questioning why a specific person on the wagon was killed. I was being contrarian because the idea was interesting and I wanted to see how people felt about that. Only Tiershift cared which reinforced my vote.
5) Do you have a scum game completed I can look at? I've look at your data and it seems like your completed games are all town flips.
I don't intend to ever release my offsite info. I don't have a scumgame on mafiascum to give you.

VOTE: mhsmith0
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Post Post #445 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:07 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Why is mhsmith scum Lycan?
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #446 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:11 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

He spectated Open 651 from the beginning and knew my reads influence each other, and that I'll call people as town or scum if I think I'll get scum in the end.
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Post Post #447 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:13 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

OK...so you're saying because he has (in your opinion) a bad case, he is scum?

Anything else?
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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Post Post #448 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:18 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

It was more than a bad case. It was a bad, thorough case missing the point as though how I procedurally scumhunt was omitted in favor of tone or whatever bullshit that was supposed to be about.
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Post Post #449 (ISO) » Tue Sep 06, 2016 10:31 pm

Post by BlueBloodedToffee »

Is there anything else for him being scum?

Because town present bad cases all the time and meta is subjective.
Meta this. Meta that. Meta Everything. Meta is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE THEIR META. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.
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