Mini Normal 1829 - Game Over

[gerryoat]

that's the point

[gigabyteTroubadour]

...

[Nero Cain]

I mean, I'm not the only one that just finds Michel super confusing right?

[karnos]

This seems a bit off to me.

[karnos]

fakedit: I voted gerry because there was no reason to claim, it was obviously not an accidental claim. It might have been a harmless joking post, but we were way past RVS at that point and I didn't see any towbn motivation to start BS posting again.

I've seen scum do all kinds of crazy shit in RVS on this site itself, like claiming scum for example and they get a free pass because it is joke phase.
Gerry's PR slip makes zero sense as town Gerry. Like the friggin game was already in full swing the joke phase was long gone and this guy decided this fake PR slip.
Where the fuck is the town motivation behind this ?

I'd support a karnos wagon.

VOTE: Karnos

All aboard !

Does this logical progression make any sense at all? Am I being bias because shadow_step is voting me, or did he basically use the exact same argument I did for scum gerry, and then vote me, despite his argument being a copy of my own?

[karnos]

Yeah, after forther review I see no reason to move my vote. Shadow_step increases in scum level by 50dkp, but transcend's slot is still scummy after the replace.

Sorry, the fake masonry is a big deal. It wasn't an obvious joke and it had a lot of potentially to seriously hurt town via real mason CC or by reading Maria wrong.

[Nero Cain]

I think that voting without giving reasoning is better for scum then for town

town do naked votes all the time but yea, I generally think that not giving reasons for your votes is pro-scum.

This made Blitz slightly more likely to be scum, but the difference was marginal. If the other players had a 3 in 12 chance (0.25) of being scum, I felt her chance of being scum was something like 0.2505.

This part is junk though. Like there was no way that Blitz's naked vote was scummier than any other naked vote.

vote:Michel

[MariaR]

I think that voting without giving reasoning is better for scum then for town

town do naked votes all the time but yea, I generally think that not giving reasons for your votes is pro-scum.

This made Blitz slightly more likely to be scum, but the difference was marginal. If the other players had a 3 in 12 chance (0.25) of being scum, I felt her chance of being scum was something like 0.2505.

This part is junk though. Like there was no way that Blitz's naked vote was scummier than any other naked vote.

vote:Michel

We're the only one's who sr him It's not happening today although I wish it was!

[Nero Cain]

The Michel-Ira/Vi correlation is p apt. Unlike Thor I could easily see his wonky and convoluted logic as scum.

@jjd

-explain why Michel has the best posting in the game.

I joined this game b/c it didn't have a silly 2 or 3 week deadline.

But when one of the most respected posters here is willing to bail out due to someone continually insulting a 3rd person, I stand by that poster.

get a room

I think I'll save my closer readings/note-taking for the night.

i do kinda hate this though...

That would mean an enormous meta shift in the past couple of years.

On one hand, Michel just coming back this makes a little sense but at the same time why would he not take an effort to look at the current state of MS and rigidly play to late 2000 standards?

Nero, can you elaborate on this more? Gerry is slowly moving into my scumpool but I don't really trust my ability to read players like him.

just read http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=67506

basically, Gerry had no strong reads early then tunneled on town BYF for most of the game. I believe that most players have weak enough games that they can stay fairly consistent with their play.

[Nero Cain]

If my lynch options are Elyse and Karnos I might pick Elyse b/c I'm not particularly thrilled with the idea of being on a wagon with Shadow.

[Shadow_step]

fakedit: I voted gerry because there was no reason to claim, it was obviously not an accidental claim. It might have been a harmless joking post, but we were way past RVS at that point and I didn't see any towbn motivation to start BS posting again.

I've seen scum do all kinds of crazy shit in RVS on this site itself, like claiming scum for example and they get a free pass because it is joke phase.
Gerry's PR slip makes zero sense as town Gerry. Like the friggin game was already in full swing the joke phase was long gone and this guy decided this fake PR slip.
Where the fuck is the town motivation behind this ?

I'd support a karnos wagon.

VOTE: Karnos

All aboard !

Does this logical progression make any sense at all? Am I being bias because shadow_step is voting me, or did he basically use the exact same argument I did for scum gerry, and then vote me, despite his argument being a copy of my own?

Lmao
Skimming much ?
I was voting Gerry before you even posted about him. Wtf you on about ?

[chilledtea]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT 1.12

gigabyteTroubadour (L-3) : MichelSableheart, Elyse, karnos, Blitzkrieg.

Elyse (L-3) : kraska77, I Am Innocent, gigabyteTroubadour, gerryoat.

karnos (L-5) : MariaR, Shadow_step.

MariaR (L-6) : Thor665.

MichelSableheart (L-6) : Nero Cain.

Not Voting (0) : No one.

Nero Cain will be v-la till Sunday.

Day will end in (expired on 2016-09-13 10:30:00)

[MichelSableheart]

Mod: your last vote count is missing JarJarDrinks

@Gerry: The reason why you should vote Transcend is pretty simple: He was the one who made the fakeclaim that he and Maria were masons.

As town, that's a risky proposition that he's not all that likely to do.

Transcend fake claims every game as town or mafia lol

Sorry, I simply don't believe that. I'm willing to accept that he fakeclaims as town some of the time, perhaps even a lot of the time, but there must be situations where he, as town, realizes fakeclaiming in that particular situation is a bad idea. Perhaps he feels that particular read isn't strong enough to fakeclaim for it. Perhaps he feels that something other then fakeclaiming works better. There will be situations where he's trueclaiming and therefore won't retract his claim.

Yet because players like you won't lynch him over it, he knows he can get away with fakeclaiming as scum. Which means he will indeed fakeclaim as scum to his hearts content, whenever he sees the opportunity.

All this means that even from him, a fakeclaim is more likely to come from scum then it is from town. So why are you letting him get away with his scum fakeclaims?

So I'm on page 20 right now and I have to ask people's opinions on something: The mason claim was pretty obviously a load of bs-ass bullshit and people discussed why. Maria wouldn't have acted the way she did when her wagon built up because she'd have the claim to save her. But then why are people hesitating to vote for Transcend/Maria at that point? Is this more of a site meta thing where the claim is just assumed to be true? This might just be hindsight bias from knowing the claim is obviously fake but I feel like there should be a vote in this post.

Town fakeclaiming is something that in my experience (4 years out of date, admittedly) never happened. So when two players claimed mason together, I felt it was either scum+scum or mason+mason. Given that, accidentally suspecting one of our strongest powerroles felt far more likely then two scum risking everything on an early day 1 gambit. If I had been more aware of how accepted town fakeclaims appearantly are in the current meta, I would have looked into it far more, because then all of a sudden one scum+one fakeclaiming town becomes a possibility.

I've already explained why Gerry is scum, I don't believe in making the thread toxic and asking people to vote Gerry in every post I make.

Why did you think explaining why Gerry is scum would be enough to get him lynched today over the more popular wagons? Because there's absolutely no chance of that lynch happening if you're not trying to convince others at all. I have to agree with giga's assessment that your vote was on a vanity wagon there.

Also, where the ... did that karnos vote come from? You didn't mention him at all before maria suggested him. On the other hand, you had shown quite a bit of suspicion on the gigaslot. Why is karnos a better lynch then giga is?

UNVOTE:

gig is towntelling a little bit. Not enough to totally negate my scumread of the slot but enough for an unvote. Also feel like a scum replacement doesn't make that claim there.

Why the unvote if you were still scumreading the gigaslot? If you felt there was a better wagon around I could understand, but why is your vote better spend voting noone rather then voting a scumread?

I think that voting without giving reasoning is better for scum then for town

town do naked votes all the time but yea, I generally think that not giving reasons for your votes is pro-scum.

This made Blitz slightly more likely to be scum, but the difference was marginal. If the other players had a 3 in 12 chance (0.25) of being scum, I felt her chance of being scum was something like 0.2505.

This part is junk though. Like there was no way that Blitz's naked vote was scummier than any other naked vote.

vote:Michel

It does mean she was scummier then the players who hadn't voted at the time, though. And scummier then you, who by switching gave players something to question you about. And scummier then transcend, who with his rolepm post gave people something to respond to. You could even argue she was scummier then shadow, who at least said something alongside his vote. So basically, I arbitrarily chose to vote blitzkrieg over IAI during Arbitrary Voting Stage.

On one hand, Michel just coming back this makes a little sense but at the same time why would he not take an effort to look at the current state of MS and rigidly play to late 2000 standards?

I simply do not have the time to read games I'm not in. Just keeping up with one game takes up all the time I have available for Mafiascum. I read mafia discussion a bit, but the "how much have things shifted" thread didn't mention anything about an increase in town fakeclaims. But even if town fakeclaims have become more prevalent, I see no reason to consider a fakeclaim as anything other then a huge scumtell. As I mentioned in my reply to Gerry above, there's just no way that town fakeclaims more then scum.

---
The way that giga combed through Elyse's post, finding fault with most of them, feels like giga starts out wanting to suspect Elyse and then goes looking for reasons, rather then giga suspecting Elyse and explaining her reasons. The way Elyse dealt with the mason claim, and the fact that she may be lining up the giga and maria lynches are valid reasons to suspect her. I would expect town giga to focus on those, rather then criticize almost every post in detail.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Nero, can you elaborate on this more? Gerry is slowly moving into my scumpool but I don't really trust my ability to read players like him.

just read http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=67506

basically, Gerry had no strong reads early then tunneled on town BYF for most of the game. I believe that most players have weak enough games that they can stay fairly consistent with their play.

I mean, I see your point but at least in that game he tried to bs opinions in the beginning. He has a town game where he was equally as useless and got lynched D2 as the town's sole investigative role...

this is a hard game, idk who is maf lol

So honestly this might be town!Gerry. He's still a nullread to me, I kind of don't like how he implied that he was intentionally trying to be difficult to read because that's

technically

something that only benefits scum!Gerry unless my grasp of theory is totally bizzare.

Town fakeclaiming is something that in my experience (4 years out of date, admittedly) never happened. So when two players claimed mason together, I felt it was either scum+scum or mason+mason. Given that, accidentally suspecting one of our strongest powerroles felt far more likely then two scum risking everything on an early day 1 gambit. If I had been more aware of how accepted town fakeclaims appearantly are in the current meta, I would have looked into it far more, because then all of a sudden one scum+one fakeclaiming town becomes a possibility.

See, this is why your vote felt natural and reasonable and why Elyse's didn't.

The way that giga combed through Elyse's post, finding fault with most of them, feels like giga starts out wanting to suspect Elyse and then goes looking for reasons, rather then giga suspecting Elyse and explaining her reasons. The way Elyse dealt with the mason claim, and the fact that she may be lining up the giga and maria lynches are valid reasons to suspect her. I would expect town giga to focus on those, rather then criticize almost every post in detail.

Why does explaining why I think an ISO shows a scum-thought process imply I have an agenda? Elyse asked me why I suspected her since I was asking for other people's reads on her, and I felt that if I showed how I came to the conclusion that she was my strongest scumread then people would understand. I've never played with you before so I don't know if this is a misrep, but this feels like confirmation bias.

i do kinda hate this though...

Would you rather my slot do nothing and/or make votes that would have been relevant page 20? I read through the entire thread once and also took a look through ISOs, I have a good idea of what the current gamestate is like and I'm also getting reads from the interactions I'm having. Is there something wrong with that?

Also, Nero, why are you starting a wagon on Michel? My townread of him aside, the deadline is in less than 2 days, now is the time to compromise on wagons instead of push new ones, at least in my opinion. I'd rather I be mislynched then us have no lynch.

[I Am Innocent]

Yeah, after forther review I see no reason to move my vote. Shadow_step increases in scum level by 50dkp, but transcend's slot is still scummy after the replace.

Sorry, the fake masonry is a big deal. It wasn't an obvious joke and it had a lot of potentially to seriously hurt town via real mason CC or by reading Maria wrong.

Big deal yes? Scummy debatable.

The question I've asked myself is what reason does scum transcend do that for:

1) Town Maria
2) Scum Maria

I see more of a reason for #2 and less for #1.

Then when you factor him backing off for potentially being blacklisted, why does scum transcend back off for #1 and #2 above?

The wagon on Maria was dying by the time he backed off, but once again a scum gambit would never get him black listed so what benefit unless both are scum.

I find scum transcend town Maria as the least likely combination of the 4.

The fact brought up by JJD earlier that élysé was so sure the mason was fake and losing some lynch options makes me wonder if élysé and Maria could be scum mates. Could the élysé l-1 vote on Maria been a stab at town cred? The Maria vote to karnos from élysé despite having élysé in the scum bucket is off too.

Right now the 3 people I think should be the lynch candidates today are élysé shadow and Maria. The Gigi wagon is dumb, and I want everyone on it to tell me what im missing above and why Gigi before Maria?

Ps - sorry just remember the ascetic claim, if that's the reason just state that...

[I Am Innocent]

I thought she meant it as in my game is wavering in this game and it was pretty perfect in the scum game so she thinks I'm town that logic seems fine to me or did you take it a dif way

You think it's ok to base a meta read on one game of experience?

Especially now that you say you change every game?

ughghdfhsgdsfad stupid mason claim I want to lynch you with fire

Yeah quick ISO read shows they're not scum mates. This is just one of many posts that shows this :-/

[I Am Innocent]

Élysé u willing to vote shadow?

[gigabyteTroubadour]

IaI, can you talk to me a bit more about your Blitzkrieg townread? I was liking some of her posts close to the time Transcend replaced out, but other than that I'm not getting a strong read on her one way or another.

[Shadow_step]

Also, where the ... did that karnos vote come from? You didn't mention him at all before maria suggested him. On the other hand, you had shown quite a bit of suspicion on the gigaslot. Why is karnos a better lynch then giga is?

I want more pressure on the slot and we have enough time to lynch Giga.

[Shadow_step]

Élysé u willing to vote shadow?

Not like the wagon on your buddy Karnos?

[Elyse]

Élysé u willing to vote shadow?

Yeah

but giga is scum because as I've said multiple times, it makes much more sense for him to fakeclaim masons as scum. I've done it before in the same situation. Maybe that's why I scumread him so strongly.

I'm not going to address much of giga's wall. As Michel already said, he just combed through my ISO and twisted anything he could into something scummy. If I had the time/desire, I could do the same thing for him.

I will say that me believing the claim was fake and still not wanting to lynch them is not a contradiction. No matter how bullshit I think the claim is, there's a very small chance I'm wrong and I would never lynch a mason claim D1, especially when it's confirmed by a mason partner. Mason claims resolve themselves in time.

However they admitted to it being fake so I want giga's head on a platter.

[Nero Cain]

So basically, I arbitrarily chose to vote blitzkrieg over IAI during Arbitrary Voting Stage.

yeah you did. Both Shadow and IAI naked voted but you tried to justify voting Blitz b/c she was "scummier" which I think is total BS and not a town thing to do.

Would you rather my slot do nothing and/or make votes that would have been relevant page 20? I read through the entire thread once and also took a look through ISOs, I have a good idea of what the current gamestate is like and I'm also getting reads from the interactions I'm having. Is there something wrong with that?

no. Also when I wrote that I had forgot about your claim. Basically, as town you should (IMHO) always say what you feel etc. b/c you never know when if you are going to eat bullets or not.

Also, Nero, why are you starting a wagon on Michel? My townread of him aside, the deadline is in less than 2 days, now is the time to compromise on wagons instead of push new ones, at least in my opinion. I'd rather I be mislynched then us have no lynch.

I'm active town so I can do whatever I want. I mean if I were lurky like Blitz or IAI I could understand but I'm active and here so I can change my vote at anytime.

What do you think of my scumread on Michel?

[Nero Cain]

hurry up and post Giga so I can reply and go watch football. We got 30 mins.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

hurry up and post Giga so I can reply and go watch football. We got 30 mins.

sorry i'm like doing three things at once

[gigabyteTroubadour]

Hey giga

Instead of asking other people for their thoughts on me, you should try explaining your scumread on me.

It's kind of expected when you're only scumreading one person who just so happens to be the biggest counterwagon to your lynch.

Elyse, you don't get to ask me to explain my read on you and then accuse me of trying to paint you in a bad light because it's a scumread.

Also, Nero, why are you starting a wagon on Michel? My townread of him aside, the deadline is in less than 2 days, now is the time to compromise on wagons instead of push new ones, at least in my opinion. I'd rather I be mislynched then us have no lynch.

I'm active town so I can do whatever I want. I mean if I were lurky like Blitz or IAI I could understand but I'm active and here so I can change my vote at anytime.

What do you think of my scumread on Michel?

I mean, I disagree with it. He seems like he at least believes what he's saying and his train of thought makes sense to me, even if I think it's wrong. It's enough for an early-game townread from me, I agree with Kraska's earlier point in that it might be better to rely on associations and his role in the town's dynamic to get a read on him.

As for your reasoning behind it, I think you're looking too deeply into his take on whatever you want to call the beginning-of-the-game voting stage (RVS, AVS, LIVS??). To me, it looked like he just picked one of the naked voters arbitrarily and pushed them. I'm not really following your logic I guess.

I don't think the push itself is terrible though because I townread you and I think that it's good to sort out every slot (since most of the focus this game has been around Maria and me), just kind of wasted effort because it's nearly deadline and I personally think that the town's best course of action is to engage in Elyse and I's 1v1 because I think either of our lynches are the most pro-town. Elyse because I scumread her, myself because I'm negative utility and hopefully my town flip will put the town in a different trajectory tomorrow.

If he ends up lynched ever this game, it won't be today for sure. Is there anything in your past game together that affects your read on him?

also go watch your football, i have to catch up on my calc and stats work